What are you buying today?

[Spekulatius]

14 minutes ago, mananainvesting said:

I think that is the case with every acquisition of theirs, the legacy heartland brands have one of the lowest ORs in the business, so any acquisition they do hurts in the short term. They usually take 3 years to right the acquired business to low 80s OR like the rest of the business but in this case the management has said it will likely take 4 years (from 2022). The 2 acquisitions (CFI & Smith) doubled the company’s revenue so imo it is material. 

I just don’t see the attraction of a business that has been flat more than a decade. Looking up older annual reports, they made $72M in net earnings in 2005 and they only really beat this earnings number in 2022 with revenue more than double the 2005 #.

 

And now, to break out of this runt, they have done a merger that years 4 years to work out:

 

In any case, trucking cos tend to have strong earnings about a year after a recession and then the profits seem to fade. Thats not much of a runway.

 

Edited October 16, 2024 by Spekulatius

[mananainvesting]

4 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I just don’t see the attraction of a business that has been flat more than a decade. Looking up older annual reports, they made $72M in net earnings in 2005 and they only really beat this earnings number in 2022 with revenue more than double the 2005 #.

 

And now, to break out of this runt, they have done a merger that years 4 years to work out:

 

In any case, trucking cos tend to have strong earnings about a year after a recession and then the profits seem to fade. Thats not much of a runway.

 

Valid points. I would point you to a couple of things a) Cash Flow (They have higher depreciation than net capex) b) buybacks c)special dividends d) valuation e)land/property on the books vs market value. They have ~27 owned terminal/properties and 40acres of land. See 2022 AR for gain on sale of one of the terminals. 

[toughcall]

$LVMH -  Sentiment is very bearish. It is doom talk in the comment sections on X and forums. If the rich get purged, we are all in bigger trouble than our LVMH stocks getting hammered. Sure, in the short run there will be trouble in China. In a couple of years, we won't even remember the tariff talks. And the growth in India and other upcoming nations will be spectacular. Great opportunity to buy a wonderful company. Can it dip 20% more? Sure, and I will gobble all the way down.

[Milu]

26 minutes ago, toughcall said:

$LVMH -  Sentiment is very bearish. It is doom talk in the comment sections on X and forums. If the rich get purged, we are all in bigger trouble than our LVMH stocks getting hammered. Sure, in the short run there will be trouble in China. In a couple of years, we won't even remember the tariff talks. And the growth in India and other upcoming nations will be spectacular. Great opportunity to buy a wonderful company. Can it dip 20% more? Sure, and I will gobble all the way down.

Yes agree with most of this, current price (even after today's drop) is still slightly over what I'm willing to pay but we are getting closer.

[Gregmal]

Bought some more GYRO. Court ruling paves way for 100% upside IMO

[Saluki]

Bought a little ENPH and KRKNF as they came down.  

 

Small tracking position in RTO and VRRM while i study them. 

[valueventures]

On 10/12/2024 at 9:10 AM, wisowis said:

Added to RTO, SCR.to, and HTL.to merger arb this week

What's your thesis on SCR.TO? I'm long as well, but this one doesn't get much discussion here. Thanks!

[Red Lion]

4 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Bought some more GYRO. Court ruling paves way for 100% upside IMO

 

I'm not familiar with this at all, but I had to look it up since you have a habit of hitting these special situations on the head and walking away with buckets of Benjamins. 

 

The only news article I saw mentioned that New York Supreme Court ruled in favor of GYRO. Are you concerned about an appeal? Isn't Supreme Court the trial court in New York? Or was this just another instance of sloppy journalism? 

[Gregmal]

43 minutes ago, Red Lion said:

 

I'm not familiar with this at all, but I had to look it up since you have a habit of hitting these special situations on the head and walking away with buckets of Benjamins. 

 

The only news article I saw mentioned that New York Supreme Court ruled in favor of GYRO. Are you concerned about an appeal? Isn't Supreme Court the trial court in New York? Or was this just another instance of sloppy journalism? 

Whats been communicated and was reiterated at the recent AGM is that this was the last holdup for final approvals on the entitlements and once done the properties could be marketed which would wrap up the liquidation. They reiterated NAV is more than double todays opening price. 

 

This is a pretty easy to size up handful of assets, its just tiny and probably hasn't been on anyones radar in ages. The fact this opened sub $8 with this news just shows that. What was interesting though, especially given its size, is how on the ball Towerview has been, regularly, snapping up shares in the event they were available under $8. 

[Red Lion]

7 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Whats been communicated and was reiterated at the recent AGM is that this was the last holdup for final approvals on the entitlements and once done the properties could be marketed which would wrap up the liquidation. They reiterated NAV is more than double todays opening price. 

 

This is a pretty easy to size up handful of assets, its just tiny and probably hasn't been on anyones radar in ages. The fact this opened sub $8 with this news just shows that. What was interesting though, especially given its size, is how on the ball Towerview has been, regularly, snapping up shares in the event they were available under $8. 

 

Awesome, this one will probably get away from me by the time I get comfortable with the moving pieces. Sounds like a killer setup. 

[WFF]

9 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Whats been communicated and was reiterated at the recent AGM is that this was the last holdup for final approvals on the entitlements and once done the properties could be marketed which would wrap up the liquidation. They reiterated NAV is more than double todays opening price. 

 

This is a pretty easy to size up handful of assets, its just tiny and probably hasn't been on anyones radar in ages. The fact this opened sub $8 with this news just shows that. What was interesting though, especially given its size, is how on the ball Towerview has been, regularly, snapping up shares in the event they were available under $8. 

Was digging around,  any reason they issue so many shares earlier this year?    
 

From what I gather they expect to liquidate Dec 2025, which current is estimated to be around 16, diluted down because of the share issue.  

[Gregmal]

7 hours ago, WFF said:

Was digging around,  any reason they issue so many shares earlier this year?    
 

From what I gather they expect to liquidate Dec 2025, which current is estimated to be around 16, diluted down because of the share issue.  

Rights offering to ensure proper liquidity to see thru remaining litigation. 

[Paarslaars]

Apparantly you have to be a US citizen to buy this?

[spartansaver]

Thanks for posting Greg. I've been following for four plus years but never bought. I missed the announcement about the ruling. Bought as much as I could today. I never wanted to get in ahead of the ruling, but with the positive outcome this thing looks great. 

[mananainvesting]

@Gregmal @spartansaver: Are there any weird tax implications with $GYRO ? Example: Like an LP? 

Edited October 17, 2024 by mananainvesting

[spartansaver]

2 minutes ago, mananainvesting said:

@Gregmal @spartansaver: Are there any weird tax implications with $GYRO ? Example: Like an LP? 

That's one worry I've had due to the K1 but hopefully its a good problem to have down the line. I'm semi expecting to pay taxes in my non-taxable accounts. 

[Gregmal]

Im not too concerned as theres no real operations, just the last two properties in Long Island. 

[fareastwarriors]

7 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Im not too concerned as theres no real operations, just the last two properties in Long Island. 

 

What kind of terminal value you;re looking at, mid to high teens?

[Gregmal]

11 hours ago, fareastwarriors said:

 

What kind of terminal value you;re looking at, mid to high teens?

Given the timeframe really anything over say $13 should be wonderful. Think it’s ultimately a good bit higher than that. 

[Dinar]

St James (STJ LN). Wealth management firm trading at 6x 2029 net income

[thowed]

3 hours ago, Dinar said:

St James (STJ LN). Wealth management firm trading at 6x 2029 net income

 

I'm sure you've researched it properly, but I'd be cautious on this - they really are pretty crappy, even by the low standards of UK Wealth Managers.  On the other hand, they charge outrageously high fees, so as long as not everyone leaves, maybe it will work. 

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, thowed said:

 

I'm sure you've researched it properly, but I'd be cautious on this - they really are pretty crappy, even by the low standards of UK Wealth Managers.  On the other hand, they charge outrageously high fees, so as long as not everyone leaves, maybe it will work. 

Could you please elaborate?  (I am personally shocked at the fees that people are willing to pay.)  Crappy in  what way?  Thank you.

[thowed]

Sure - I should contextualise more, and add that obviously my opinion is just of one person.

 

I think traditionally they were quite a big deal just in terms of size - so they got a lot of business by default - your lazy work pension (i.e. 401k) guy might use them, and your grandma, because she didn't know any better.  So I imagine a fair bit of their business is legacy stuff like this.

 

I looked at their funds once (they  get various fund managers to do versions under a 'St James' brand) and the fees were even higher than the already high charges you expect.  I think now the internet has provided transparency on these things, more and more people have woken up to it, so I would imagine fewer people will use them going forward.  But I haven't looked at the numbers.

 

Hope that makes sense.  So basically crappy in the sense that if I had to suggest a Wealth Manager for a family member, they'd be bottom of the list.

 

But of course, this doesn't necessarily make it a bad investment, depending on valuation, turnaround opportunities etc., which I don't know about.

[gfp]

On 9/6/2024 at 7:49 AM, gfp said:

 

No I am betting on higher interest rates - this is just me putting on the position.  Just a seasonal "farmer's almanac" type speculation that will naturally hedge some other positions I have

 

( I originally posted in the "buying" thread because I would prefer to express this trade with options but they aren't open for trading yet so I started with the TLT )

 

Back from Japan finally and going to close out this TLT short since it was always just a seasonal pattern trade.  I suppose Trump win odds going up could push long yields up some more but I'm out.  The trade worked out as expected

[WFF]

GYRO, piggy backing off Gregmal.

 

IH, an education (think Khan Academy) app