What are you buying today?

[Gregmal]

Added to VRE, MSGE, Nintendo, UBER

[sfbm21]

6 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Added to VRE, MSGE, Nintendo, UBER

what is thesis behind VRE ?

[Gregmal]

4 minutes ago, sfbm21 said:

what is thesis behind VRE ?

Orphaned non dividend paying, newly rebranded class A multifamily REIT with some remaining office and land assets waiting to be liquidated. Decent likelihood of a sale. It’s the old Mack-Cali. NAV probably $30. Worst case sale low $20s. Downside is that they think they are a growth reit and keep making acquisitions at 4 cap rates. But as long as they’re buying class A it’s not the end of the world.

[Red Lion]

Added to KKR. 

[n.r98]

41 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Added to VRE, MSGE, Nintendo, UBER

What is your thought process with Uber here? Flow reversals?

[Gregmal]

6 minutes ago, n.r98 said:

What is your thought process with Uber here? Flow reversals?

Been a position I’ve slowly been initiating and building into the sell off. Main thesis is that LYFT and yellow taxis aren’t a real threat, at worst duopoly like market dynamics, increasing pricing power. Gig economy benefactor(even though driving doesn’t seem economic people still do it because they want to work on their own terms), free upside on the delivery business. You can tinker with the numbers but should start generating substantial FCF over the next few years. 

[n.r98]

13 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Been a position I’ve slowly been initiating and building into the sell off. Main thesis is that LYFT and yellow taxis aren’t a real threat, at worst duopoly like market dynamics, increasing pricing power. Gig economy benefactor(even though driving doesn’t seem economic people still do it because they want to work on their own terms), free upside on the delivery business. You can tinker with the numbers but should start generating substantial FCF over the next few years. 

 

Not an expert here but given the duopolistic dynamics that have been ongoing for quite a while, why haven't prices been raised already, to the point of free cash flow positivity for both players? And if they were warring, what would make them  "collaborate" eventually? 

 

Also, the delivery business seems like a very competitive one with thin margins and if Uber determines to make it big, would it then be a huge cost center for them?

 

Sorry for bombarding.  

[Gregmal]

7 minutes ago, n.r98 said:

 

Not an expert here but given the duopolistic dynamics that have been ongoing for quite a while, why haven't prices been raised already, to the point of free cash flow positivity for both players? And if they were warring, what would make them  "collaborate" eventually? 

 

Also, the delivery business seems like a very competitive one with thin margins and if Uber determines to make it big, would it then be a huge cost center for them?

 

Sorry for bombarding.  

I actually think this is the first time you’ve had a clear market. There was this huge rush to gain share basically up til IPO and definitely competition with LYFT. COVID in a way purged that and established what I view as more of a mature market dynamic. The way Kalanick built the platform, is was meant to burn cash, build market share, and kill competition. My thesis involves the assumption we are done with that. Now is where you focus on the economics. 
 

LYFT I knew a bit of pre IPO because it was always being hawked to folks that wanted Uber. It’s horribly run and I wouldn’t touch it. 

[ourkid8]

Bought a starter position in BAM with the proceeds from RFP.  

[Dinar]

5 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Orphaned non dividend paying, newly rebranded class A multifamily REIT with some remaining office and land assets waiting to be liquidated. Decent likelihood of a sale. It’s the old Mack-Cali. NAV probably $30. Worst case sale low $20s. Downside is that they think they are a growth reit and keep making acquisitions at 4 cap rates. But as long as they’re buying class A it’s not the end of the world.

What about management comp, seems egregious?  Also, are you not bothered by absence of insider buying?  Also, do you like the Jersey City/Port Imperial assets or Park Ridge?  Are these truly prime locations?

Edited July 11, 2022 by Dinar

[Gregmal]

4 minutes ago, Dinar said:

What about management comp, seems egregious?  Also, are you not bothered by absence of insider buying?  Also, do you like the Jersey City/Port Imperial assets or Park Ridge?  Are these truly prime locations?

I dont care for management but this was shook up via the previous activist campaign and its essentially a low hanging fruit for an acquirer or future activist. Jersey City and Park Ridge are absolutely good assets given the supply constraints for the great NYC region. Especially the suburbs. I know the Morristown area especially well, and thats similar to Park Ridge. There's takers for these assets all day long, 8 days a week. Office is what I hate. Land I like but theyre trying to unload it. Ill have to stomach the vomit inducing woke verbiage for a bit, but I think from these levels this is super interesting vs at $17 it was good enough for a smaller position but also not unique enough to pound the table. 

 

What I'd watch and dislike is the idea these guys think theyre gonna grow a MF REIT. Get the fuck outta town LOL. Especially with your shares at 40% NAV.

[Dinar]

9 hours ago, Gregmal said:

I dont care for management but this was shook up via the previous activist campaign and its essentially a low hanging fruit for an acquirer or future activist. Jersey City and Park Ridge are absolutely good assets given the supply constraints for the great NYC region. Especially the suburbs. I know the Morristown area especially well, and thats similar to Park Ridge. There's takers for these assets all day long, 8 days a week. Office is what I hate. Land I like but theyre trying to unload it. Ill have to stomach the vomit inducing woke verbiage for a bit, but I think from these levels this is super interesting vs at $17 it was good enough for a smaller position but also not unique enough to pound the table. 

 

What I'd watch and dislike is the idea these guys think theyre gonna grow a MF REIT. Get the fuck outta town LOL. Especially with your shares at 40% NAV.

Thank you very much.  While i see how this is incredibly cheap on a liquidation basis, my problem is the SG&A burn.  I think that it could easily be $20-30MM per annum, and that significantly reduces NAV.  It is also not in the CEO's interest to sell the company, and I am trying to figure out what is in Aharon Aviva Katz's interest.  

[Kupotea]

Buying several oil producer/servicing stocks: SU, GXE, MEG, and TCW.

[n.r98]

Heavy insider buying at $ARKR, anyone has some snap thesis/pitfalls on this?

[Red Lion]

Bought back my January 2023 KKR $60 PUTS for a loss then wrote $47 puts for July 15 2022. I'm hoping to either get PUT the stock, or at least be able to generate some options income on these super short term puts while the volatility is so high.. 

[boilermaker75]

Wrote BRKB July 15 expiration, 270-strike puts for >$1.

Edited July 13, 2022 by boilermaker75

[AzCactus]

FAST

[Red Lion]

Rolled my 7/15 $47 KKR PUTS to the 7/22 $46 strike for the same premium.

[Monsieur_dee]

Brk

[Dinar]

On 7/11/2022 at 4:13 PM, Gregmal said:

I dont care for management but this was shook up via the previous activist campaign and its essentially a low hanging fruit for an acquirer or future activist. Jersey City and Park Ridge are absolutely good assets given the supply constraints for the great NYC region. Especially the suburbs. I know the Morristown area especially well, and thats similar to Park Ridge. There's takers for these assets all day long, 8 days a week. Office is what I hate. Land I like but theyre trying to unload it. Ill have to stomach the vomit inducing woke verbiage for a bit, but I think from these levels this is super interesting vs at $17 it was good enough for a smaller position but also not unique enough to pound the table. 

 

What I'd watch and dislike is the idea these guys think theyre gonna grow a MF REIT. Get the fuck outta town LOL. Especially with your shares at 40% NAV.

Greg, what do you think the company looks like in 2023?  I think that 2023 will look as follows:

a) Office + hotel + development gone

b) Debt + repurchase obligations ($532MM) = $1.25bn on 12/31/2022

c) Existing stabilized multifamily = $140-$145MM of EBITDA

d) Haus25 = $40MM rent roll and $28MM of EBITDA

e) Park ridge = $5MM of EBITDA

f) s/o + all opco units + options = 100MM

g) Fair value of our interest in joint ventures = $250MM

h) Corporate SG&A = $20MM per annum.

 

Please let me know if I am missing something or you disagree

Edited July 13, 2022 by Dinar

[Gregmal]

30 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Greg, what do you think the company looks like in 2023?  I think that 2023 will look as follows:

a) Office + hotel + development gone

b) Debt + repurchase obligations ($532MM) = $1.25bn on 12/31/2022

c) Existing stabilized multifamily = $140-$145MM of EBITDA

d) Haus25 = $40MM rent roll and $28MM of EBITDA

e) Park ridge = $5MM of EBITDA

f) s/o + all opco units + options = 100MM

g) Fair value of our interest in joint ventures = $250MM

h) Corporate SG&A = $20MM per annum.

 

Please let me know if I am missing something or you disagree

I’m driving so at quick glance your figures are in the right ballpark. NAV range is like 23-32, IMO. The key assumptions I think you have to make involve the dispositions and pace thereof. Then there’s reinvestment in idk. I’m not entirely sold on the credibility of this being a worthy long term investment. But from here into year end, as long as multifamily stays solid which it will, you’ve got a good risk reward skew. During that time you pay attention to management and see if they earn some trust. I have not really been impressed so far. They’re pretty unspectacular. I wouldn’t say bad, just nothing special. 

[Dinar]

9 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

I’m driving so at quick glance your figures are in the right ballpark. NAV range is like 23-32, IMO. The key assumptions I think you have to make involve the dispositions and pace thereof. Then there’s reinvestment in idk. I’m not entirely sold on the credibility of this being a worthy long term investment. But from here into year end, as long as multifamily stays solid which it will, you’ve got a good risk reward skew. During that time you pay attention to management and see if they earn some trust. I have not really been impressed so far. They’re pretty unspectacular. I wouldn’t say bad, just nothing special. 

Thank you, I agree with you.  My biggest fear is lousy capital allocation and high SG&A.  I guess there is always a chance that Jonathan Gray comes in.

[Gregmal]

1 minute ago, Dinar said:

Thank you, I agree with you.  My biggest fear is lousy capital allocation and high SG&A.  I guess there is always a chance that Jonathan Gray comes in.

Everyone public traded, with good MF assets, hears the big boy footsteps coming for them. They wake up in the middle of the night screaming “sold to Blackstone!”. Additionally Bow street already did much of the heavy lifting. CEOs previous job got taken out as well. I think it’s a good play at $12.

[perulv]

On 1/27/2022 at 7:44 PM, perulv said:

Lam research (LRCX). Maybe buying these semiconductor stocks right now is catching a falling knife, but great businesses decent price etc. "All" the q4 results in my portfolio looked the same yesterday, "higher earnings, but supply chain", and they are all down 5-10% today. 

 

On 1/27/2022 at 9:00 PM, Spekulatius said:

I don't think it's supply chain issues that are whacking the stock. I believe the concern is about waning demand. TER just had a hiccup where demand wasn't as expected. This can happen very quickly in the semi equipment space.

 

Perhaps this time is different. Certainly the industry cycles have mellowed out somewhat, but I don't think they are entirely gone, especially in Semi equipment. Also, the insiders and employees know when the jig is up before any of us do.

 

LRCX is down 25% since this. If I click the buy(more)-button it will probably go down another 25%, but I just cant help salivating over the long term metrics. Great business on sale, or mean reversion of too-good-to-be-true ROA and growth?

 

[WFF]

Added some more BAC. Might pick up some more 01658:hk especially if it breaches 5 HKD mark.