What are you buying today?

[nwoodman]

Added to FFH and ATCO

[kab60]

All in the last week: Bought more ABG (took from aprox 5 to 12,5 pct. position since announcement of Larry Miller deal). Bought new stakes in CNSL, DISCK and APTS (APTS smaller one at 3 pct.)

[DJS]

On 10/31/2021 at 5:28 PM, Gregmal said:

You guys are entering the trade for the wrong reasons then. @boilermaker75 not surprisingly has it down 100% right.
 

I don’t really give a shit whether i own the stock or not, I’m really just selling insurance to folks on stuff that I can deal with owning at that price/valuation. If MO at 41.30 cost does me in, so be it. But I’d wager(as I am) that I either make money on the put sale or can make money from that basis. I don’t care if it gets bought for $50000 a share tomorrow. If it goes to $25 I should’ve been more selective obviously in hindsite, but that’s always a risk in the market anyway. 
 

People love to complicate the heck out of things which is what I think is going on here. Every stock can go up or down a lot. That’s not a risk specific to selling puts. 

 

I do this consistently and look at it exactly the same way as you and @boilermaker75 ... selling insurance. I'll usually do it with a company that I either already own and am looking to add to, or one that I'm looking to start a new position in but maybe some unrelated news, market sentiment or whatever has been lifting the general market up as a whole. Rather than wait on the sidelines for a pull back that may or may not come anytime soon, I sell insurance on the company and collect the premiums, which alone can actually create a pretty good return.

 

One thing I'll add is that if there is a modest decline, rather than be put the shares, I'll usually just roll the put out and collect the premium again. Now if there's a large decline where there's not enough premium to make it worth doing again, I'll let it be exercised and most likely be buying even more shares in addition as that's really the ideal opportunity I was waiting for to begin with

[boilermaker75]

22 hours ago, DJS said:

 

I do this consistently and look at it exactly the same way as you and @boilermaker75 ... selling insurance. I'll usually do it with a company that I either already own and am looking to add to, or one that I'm looking to start a new position in but maybe some unrelated news, market sentiment or whatever has been lifting the general market up as a whole. Rather than wait on the sidelines for a pull back that may or may not come anytime soon, I sell insurance on the company and collect the premiums, which alone can actually create a pretty good return.

 

One thing I'll add is that if there is a modest decline, rather than be put the shares, I'll usually just roll the put out and collect the premium again. Now if there's a large decline where there's not enough premium to make it worth doing again, I'll let it be exercised and most likely be buying even more shares in addition as that's really the ideal opportunity I was waiting for to begin with

 

Excellent first post DJS

 

Edit: and welcome to CoBF

 

Exactly what I do now. Try to roll out the puts if I can pick up enough premium, unless I am doing it to pick up the shares.

Edited November 8, 2021 by boilermaker75

[valueventures]

@Spekulatius what is your thesis on Nextdoor? I agree it could be huge, but don't think I've seen it posted on the forums here yet. What are your thoughts on valuation too? Would be curious to hear your take. Thanks!

Edited November 8, 2021 by valueventures

[benchmark]

4 hours ago, boilermaker75 said:

 

Excellent first post DJS

 

Edit: and welcome to CoBF

 

Exactly what I do now. Try to roll out the puts if I can pick up enough premium, unless I am doing it to pick up the shares.

 

when you roll out the puts, don't you lose money on your current puts already? 

[boilermaker75]

9 hours ago, benchmark said:

 

when you roll out the puts, don't you lose money on your current puts already? 

 

Yes you buy back your current puts at a loss, or just a reduction in your profit, but sell the further out expiration puts at a greater premium. 

 

Let's say the strike is $50 and the stock is around $49.5 at closing. You can buy pack the put at about $0.50 and sell the put expiring the next week for much more than $.50, maybe  > $1.

 

Or if you had sold the original put for $1.50, you just might want to close the position at a $1 profit.

Edited November 8, 2021 by boilermaker75

[Spekulatius]

12 hours ago, valueventures said:

@Spekulatius what is your thesis on Nextdoor? I agree it could be huge, but don't think I've seen it posted on the forums here yet. What are your thoughts on valuation too? Would be curious to hear your take. Thanks!

What do I know - I like the business and the management. Apparently some traders got into this and maybe like the new ticker symbol $KIND ?

 

It's 10 AM and the stock is already halted 3 times:

 

Valuation is a $3.6B EV for a ~$200M run rate revenue business growing 66% YoY.

Edited November 8, 2021 by Spekulatius

[Gregmal]

On 11/5/2021 at 2:33 PM, Gregmal said:

^The short Ill cover next week. Let it settle over the weekend. Puts I took 4x my basis off and will see how the rest fare over the following month, with a short leash of course since still OTM. 

Closed out the PTON trade. Got the expected follow through and the options are now basically at the money so time to call it a day. 

[bathtime]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Closed out the PTON trade. Got the expected follow through and the options are now basically at the money so time to call it a day. 

Congratulations on a great trade. Was researching PTON and saw it was rated as #1 brand. Above Apple, NetfIix, Costco, Chick-Fil-A, etc. I’m tempted to go long here. 
 

https://www.comparably.com/brands
 

 

Edited November 8, 2021 by bathtime

[valueventures]

Starter position in AOUT. Cash-rich balance sheet and buy-and-build strategy that I expect to work well over the coming years.

[Gregmal]

12/22 VIX $20 calls. Weird action in the VIX last few days despite rising market. Lotta toppy type signals with the TSLA/BTC stuff of the world. Kinda interesting. 

[formthirteen]

4 hours ago, bathtime said:

Congratulations on a great trade. Was researching PTON and saw it was rated as #1 brand. Above Apple, NetfIix, Costco, Chick-Fil-A, etc. I’m tempted to go long here. 
 

https://www.comparably.com/brands
 

 

 

Congratulations. I'm also thinking of buying I bought a starter position in PTON. The bike, the tread, PTON. This must be it, the top.

 

Quote

We're a software company. The entire leadership team comes from consumer Internet… what differentiates us is the software, which includes the streaming and the gamification and the network. We're also a media company on top of that, because we're streaming 12 hours of live TV content each day and have another 4,000 classes on-demand. - Peloton CEO John Foley

 

 

 

Edited November 8, 2021 by formthirteen
thinking of buying => bought

[KPO]

7 hours ago, formthirteen said:

 

Congratulations. I'm also thinking of buying I bought a starter position in PTON. The bike, the tread, PTON. This must be it, the top.

 

 

 

 

I don’t have a position on Peloton, and the list after them in your post seems impressive, but is there any research to suggest NPS is a good leading indicator of long term shareholder returns? 

[Broeb22]

5 minutes ago, KPO said:

I don’t have a position on Peloton, and the list after them in your post seems impressive, but is there any research to suggest NPS is a good leading indicator of long term shareholder returns? 

My heuristic answer to that chart and why PTON’s score might be misleading is that PTON is still relatively small, with only a few million users. These other companies mentioned interact with millions if not billions of people every day. I would think most brands start with high NPS scores among their core demographic. There is probably more explanatory power the larger the user base becomes for the product relative to its TAM, which is kind of circular logic, I suppose. I hate using TAM but I think it’s important for how I‘m thinking about this because the maker of craft whiskey is inherently playing in a different sized pool than a global smartphone maker.

[formthirteen]

4 hours ago, KPO said:

I don’t have a position on Peloton, and the list after them in your post seems impressive, but is there any research to suggest NPS is a good leading indicator of long term shareholder returns? 

 

The NPS score maybe reflects the quality of their product and word-of-mouth marketing at the time it was done. It's just a model, reality is in front of our eyes. Are people dumping The Bike and The Tread? With a small position I don't care. It could drop 50% or more, and probably will at some point, just like Netflix has done multiple times.

 

My intuition tells me NPS and shareholder returns are sometimes correlated. Temporary causation might exist and a study might detect this. The research would anyways be invalid for any specific stock, because theoretical models don't reflect reality.

 

Edited November 9, 2021 by formthirteen
added "maybe reflects"

[Red Lion]

Sold April  $15 APTS calls for $0.55 right before they blew out to $0.80. So now I have the $10/$15 call spread on for $2.40

[Gregmal]

9 hours ago, formthirteen said:

 

The NPS score maybe reflects the quality of their product and word-of-mouth marketing at the time it was done. It's just a model, reality is in front of our eyes. Are people dumping The Bike and The Tread? With a small position I don't care. It could drop 50% or more, and probably will at some point, just like Netflix has done multiple times.

 

My intuition tells me NPS and shareholder returns are sometimes correlated. Temporary causation might exist and a study might detect this. The research would anyways be invalid for any specific stock, because theoretical models don't reflect reality.

 

A good brand is worth its weight in gold and worth overpaying for. Elon Musk can sell flame-throwers and hats and do millions in revenue because of his brand value. You and I? Not so much. PTON is now a shittily run hardware company masquerading as SAAS with accelerating losses, and a pot committed management. I dont think the bottom is anywhere close to in yet, but thats why you size it small and just play with it til things settle down a bit. 

[Pelagic]

CLF. I've been selling puts on it for a while but only had a small share position, added to that on today's weakness.

[Red Lion]

Used the proceeds from my ill timed sale of APTS $15 call options into buying a few more shares of APO. 

[Spekulatius]

Bought a starter in $SWMA.ST / $SWMAY (Swedish Match) and just a few shares of $JXN at the open.

[boilermaker75]

The usual, wrote 280-strike, Nov 19 expiration puts on BRKB for $1.15 per share.

[Red Lion]

Added to APO at 74.65.

[Gregmal]

Puts on SPCE and PLTR

[cubsfan]

4 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Puts on SPCE and PLTR

Buying puts on Palantir?