Spekulatius Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 (edited) Small adds to BTI, MO, BMY, NTDOY, MXCT MEGACPO.MX and a starter in ALSN. Edited October 1, 2021 by Spekulatius
cubsfan Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 More MSGE - 70.35 should have gotten up earlier!
Castanza Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 1 hour ago, ERICOPOLY said: ATCO calls Go big or go home?
Spekulatius Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 2 hours ago, Spekulatius said: Small adds to BTI, MO, BMY, NTDOY, MXCT MEGACPO.MX and a starter in ALSN. Picked up a few FRFHF shares at the close.
kab60 Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 10 hours ago, Spekulatius said: I am also adding to BTI. Might add to MO as well. Owning tobacco stocks means getting constantly screwed over while cashing in ever increasing dividends. Yes. It has been 40 years of bad headlines and ever increasing FCF/share for Altria. I think the current valuation look almost too good to be true, not least considering the broader market and potential for inflation, but I feel like I might be missing something big. It's almost too easy if it's just headline risks and ESG turning investors away. I often find those two points to be bad excuses for underperformance, but I can't really figure out a scenario where one loses money on MO longterm from these levels (I think the biggest risk is dumb capital allocation, and even that seems to have been derisked with some sounds decision recently - selling wine biz, launching (small) buybacks).
KPO Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 3 hours ago, Spekulatius said: Picked up a few FRFHF shares at the close. Same. Limit filled one minute before close.
Spekulatius Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 14 minutes ago, KPO said: Same. Limit filled one minute before close. Yeah, mine filled literally in the last few seconds, I believe. I paid $393 and a few pennies. Someone really wanted to get rid of shares before the weekend.
KPO Posted October 2, 2021 Posted October 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: Yeah, mine filled literally in the last few seconds, I believe. I paid $393 and a few pennies. Someone really wanted to get rid of shares before the weekend. That was my thought as well. I always throw lowball limit orders out late in the day when I see things like this cratering on no news. This has happened a few times recently with Fairfax.
Lance Posted October 2, 2021 Posted October 2, 2021 Added to BTI, RGLD and UTG Wrote puts on MMP, MO and TSM Thanks Lance
formthirteen Posted October 2, 2021 Posted October 2, 2021 Bought ASC.L and BOO.L a couple of weeks ago. So far, not good. In ten years, let's see. At least I seem to have enough conviction to hold both stonks through this drawdown.
Spekulatius Posted October 2, 2021 Posted October 2, 2021 16 hours ago, kab60 said: Yes. It has been 40 years of bad headlines and ever increasing FCF/share for Altria. I think the current valuation look almost too good to be true, not least considering the broader market and potential for inflation, but I feel like I might be missing something big. It's almost too easy if it's just headline risks and ESG turning investors away. I often find those two points to be bad excuses for underperformance, but I can't really figure out a scenario where one loses money on MO longterm from these levels (I think the biggest risk is dumb capital allocation, and even that seems to have been derisked with some sounds decision recently - selling wine biz, launching (small) buybacks). While we could be missing something as far as business is concerned, I think the likely explanation that fund flows into tobacco equity is negative because ESG and investment mandates exclude more and more investors from owning them. I know quite a few investors who would never own tobacco /nicotine stocks (for ESG or other reasons) and actually Berkshire is one of them. I actually think it is possible that this changes when Buffett is not around any more.
Pistachio_Lawyer Posted October 4, 2021 Posted October 4, 2021 Anyone else hoping BABA will drop below PE 15 so they load up on some more?
Gregmal Posted October 4, 2021 Posted October 4, 2021 17 minutes ago, Pistachio_Lawyer said: Anyone else hoping BABA will drop below PE 15 so they load up on some more? People have been clamoring about how cheap BABA is for $100 a share now. BABA as an investment has nothing to do with the company's PE at this point in time.
Pistachio_Lawyer Posted October 4, 2021 Posted October 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Gregmal said: People have been clamoring about how cheap BABA is for $100 a share now. BABA as an investment has nothing to do with the company's PE at this point in time. I write this half hoping you’re capable of reading comprehension, but my original statement had to do with people on this forum buying more as it gets cheaper
longlake95 Posted October 4, 2021 Posted October 4, 2021 (edited) ^ yikes Edited October 4, 2021 by longlake95
Gregmal Posted October 5, 2021 Posted October 5, 2021 Oh hello there AIV 23 and 24 leaps. I feel like we're gonna have some fun together soon.
lnofeisone Posted October 5, 2021 Posted October 5, 2021 2 hours ago, Gregmal said: Oh hello there AIV 23 and 24 leaps. I feel like we're gonna have some fun together soon. Ha - just saw someone getting 100 (looks like a 90 and another 10 contracts) 7.5C at 1.90. I'm assuming it was you. Curious who is selling these though.
Gregmal Posted October 5, 2021 Posted October 5, 2021 ^Haha Im not going in hard yet cuz Ive found when a new set pops up it takes a short while for the spreads and market for them to firm up. But these are absolutely, exactly what I want. Wish APTS had these. 2024 is the year the board de-staggers as well. Basically, by then the company will be up for grabs and free and clear to the highest bidder if shit does play out properly. Current NAV is likely mid teens.
kab60 Posted October 6, 2021 Posted October 6, 2021 On 10/2/2021 at 7:58 AM, formthirteen said: Bought ASC.L and BOO.L a couple of weeks ago. So far, not good. In ten years, let's see. At least I seem to have enough conviction to hold both stonks through this drawdown. Can to put some words on your thesis?
formthirteen Posted October 6, 2021 Posted October 6, 2021 (edited) 6 hours ago, kab60 said: Can to put some words on your thesis? ROE/ROIC + yuge revenue growth = profit 5-10 years from now? Both are global software and advertising businesses. ASOS 10-year median ROE (20%), ROIC (20%), and revenue growth (31%), P/E ~20 seems "OK", price seems low if if we extrapolate from past numbers: https://quickfs.net/company/ASC:LN NTM EV/EBIT multiple ~16 near a ten year low. BOO growing faster and is more expensive: https://quickfs.net/company/BOO:LN Nick Sleep. Problems: ESG, inflation and labor costs, competition, management (BOO). Edited October 6, 2021 by formthirteen
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