LC Posted May 13, 2020 Posted May 13, 2020 Mephistopheles - this is exactly the questions I am asking myself. If his reason to sell is WFC-specific, what is it? He mentioned in an interview prior to the Annual mtg that he was still confident in the WFC brand. Now that is just the brand - it doesn't speak to the cost structure, the loan book, management, or anything else. As to whether it is WB selling - this is a pure guess, partially trying to think of the "wort case scenario. As JRM mentioned the 13F filed in Feb shows 323.2MM WFC shares help by Berkshire which is a reduction of 15%. Combine that with the excessive selling in the past month or so (compared to other banks) , and combined with WB's comments at the AGM, this is my less-than-educated guess.
alwaysdrawing Posted May 13, 2020 Posted May 13, 2020 Mephistopheles - this is exactly the questions I am asking myself. If his reason to sell is WFC-specific, what is it? He mentioned in an interview prior to the Annual mtg that he was still confident in the WFC brand. Now that is just the brand - it doesn't speak to the cost structure, the loan book, management, or anything else. As to whether it is WB selling - this is a pure guess, partially trying to think of the "wort case scenario. As JRM mentioned the 13F filed in Feb shows 323.2MM WFC shares help by Berkshire which is a reduction of 15%. Combine that with the excessive selling in the past month or so (compared to other banks) , and combined with WB's comments at the AGM, this is my less-than-educated guess. I have no idea if Uncle Warren is selling, however WFC seems likely to lose a lot of money in the short term, and the actual business seems impaired in at least the medium term. It wouldn't surprise me if WFC lost 75%+ of its value over the next 5 years. They have too many branches, cannot grow, and their business model (taking in 0 cost checking deposits and making safe loans) seems impaired by the current marketplace for loans over the short term, and the Fed crushing their profitability with 0 or negative rates. The fact is, with persistently high unemployment, the market for safe loans might be significantly smaller for years....that's not good for WFC. Note: I have no position in WFC long/short and no position via options. I have a small position in puts on other banks. I am not long any banks.
Munger_Disciple Posted May 13, 2020 Posted May 13, 2020 Berkshire didn't sell any WFC stock during Q1 2020. We know this from Q1's 10-Q filing.
Spekulatius Posted May 13, 2020 Posted May 13, 2020 I added to CMCSA, TRV, ORI, VIVHY. Started new positions in HDS and ABEV after some DooDiligence.
DooDiligence Posted May 13, 2020 Posted May 13, 2020 It is interesting all the people buying WFC whereas WB was selling. (And WB may be fully exiting his WFC stake - if you recall during the annual meeting he mentioned "We don't trim positions") Makes me fear I am missing something big and obvious. Is WFC fundamentally broken? For him to unload WFC and not BAC means it must be WFC specific. Yes WFC is like toxic waste right now in the banking world, but it is also like half of TBV and very well capitalized. He bought into BAC when not only was it toxic but also had tens of billions of legal liabilities. Is he saying it was possible to turn around BAC but not WFC? Did he like the odds of BAC in 2011 more than WFC today? BofA was not too much lower in total market cap then what WFC is today, and capital levels at all these banks are much better now. Or does he think it's an industry wide problem, interest rates, great depression? In that case he should be selling both off. He bought into airlines. Then sold out of airlines. Personally, I think he's lost it. We'll see.
DooDiligence Posted May 13, 2020 Posted May 13, 2020 I added to CMCSA, TRV, ORI, VIVHY. Started new positions in HDS and ABEV after some DooDiligence. I doubled my ABEV today. ;)
Spekulatius Posted May 13, 2020 Posted May 13, 2020 I added to CMCSA, TRV, ORI, VIVHY. Started new positions in HDS and ABEV after some DooDiligence. I doubled my ABEV today. ;) The thesis for ABEV is as follows: 1) The stock is down more than 50%. 2) The stock has never been they cheap in terms of P/S (as far as I can see) 3) The balance sheet is very strong (net cash) 4) Most importantly: Brazilians like beer (courtesy Of DooDiligence)
rb Posted May 13, 2020 Posted May 13, 2020 I added to CMCSA, TRV, ORI, VIVHY. Started new positions in HDS and ABEV after some DooDiligence. I doubled my ABEV today. ;) You should send Spek a case of beer to help with the coming pain ;) I kid.
DooDiligence Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 I added to CMCSA, TRV, ORI, VIVHY. Started new positions in HDS and ABEV after some DooDiligence. I doubled my ABEV today. ;) You should send Spek a case of beer to help with the coming pain ;) I kid. ;D They've maintained double digit ROA's & ROE's for more than a decade & returned gobs of money to shareholders. That said, volumes are down double digits & looking worse for the coming months. People will eventually start boozing it up again & I think ABEV's clean balance sheet should hold them over. I made money on ABEV before with a cost basis that was slightly more than double what I own now. (historical performance is no guarantee of future returns but...) edit: We'll see if I can still defend the purchase in a year ???
Gregmal Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 Hardly the deal of a lifetime, but I finally threw in the towel and bought a few shares of Costco at 295.
LC Posted May 14, 2020 Posted May 14, 2020 Sold all the WFC I bought yesterday - will take any profits where I can get them to lower my cost basis on this one.
LC Posted May 18, 2020 Posted May 18, 2020 Littel PM, Brk, Cloudflare Sold 15% of Livenation that was purchased in the prior week.
Spekulatius Posted May 19, 2020 Posted May 19, 2020 Added to HDG.AS (Hunter Douglas ) recently. World leader in window coverings. Cheap and low leverage (debt ~1x EBITDA) . Family run (83%+ owned) and quite illiquid. Bought some before COVID-19 and averaged down after surprisingly good Q1 results. They sure will take a hit from COVID-19 downturn, but it just seems to cheap. http://investor.hunterdouglasgroup.com/news-releases/news-release-details/hunter-douglas-results-q1-2020
fareastwarriors Posted May 20, 2020 Posted May 20, 2020 Bought some more Cloudflare You need to update your signature with your updated holdings :)
LC Posted May 20, 2020 Posted May 20, 2020 Bought some more Cloudflare You need to update your signature with your updated holdings :) Done! But I warn you keeping track of my holdings is a depressing activity :D Cloudflare is one of those companies that I used myself a few times. Industry-opinion is good, product is good, I have heard it described as "there is fast becoming no real good alternative". So great product but economics-wise, I mean you can see the financials for yourself. But I think they have a decent shot at sustainable organic growth or as an acquisition target. I think unlike a lot of the tech-bro stocks out there, in my very humble opinion they actually deliver value. Right now I am just nibbling at it as I do more research and understand the business and competitive landscape more. And need to see how the economics play out over a bit. Livenation is a bit more well-understood so not much additional to say there. IMHO a good business, just temporarily depressed due to COVID of course.
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