Zelman on housing

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-02-08/ex-goldman-exec-s-top-housing-market-predictions-for-2023?srnd=premium-europe#xj4y7vzkg

[Gmthebeau]

On 10/25/2021 at 2:32 PM, Gmthebeau said:

 

I am sorry but you guys dont really have any appreciation for history.  San Francisco has grown in line with the rest of the US until the recent high tech boom starting in 2012.  If you think that will last forever great, but history proves otherwise.  I have been talking about long term trends, not todays prices.   https://www.bayareamarketreports.com/trend/3-recessions-2-bubbles-and-a-baby

been almost 2 years since this little gem of a debate.  I came back to see how it has played out so far.  San Francisco housing has dropped pretty substantially by all reports, as has Boise, Austin and other hot markets.   Anyone who bought near that top will be waiting a long long time to get their money back unless we go to free money again which is very unlikely 

[Gregmal]

On 10/25/2021 at 3:12 PM, Gmthebeau said:

 

LOL.  

 

TSLA up over 11% TODAY.  Hit $1 trillion in market value.

MRNA up over 5% TODAY.

 

You should not talk about things you don't understand.  It's "better to keep your mouth shut and appear stupid than open it and remove all doubt"  Boom!

Bump

[Gmthebeau]

43 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Bump

sold both of those, actually sold everything in December 2021 when it was obvious market was putting in a blowoff top.  Retired shortly after and now only own bonds and some stodgy dividend payers.  

[gfp]

What did you do before you retired?

[Gregmal]

My guess is an author or something. Just a guess though.

 

Anyway, here’s the national data.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

 

Oct 2021 certainly don’t look like the top me. I actually closed on a NJ property early Sept ‘21 and it’s easily worth 25% more today. Even in outlier shitholes like SF I doubt anyone who bought in late 2021 with a 3% 30 year fixed is feeling too bad…and if you bought in the more sensible regions, well, you’re sitting pretty. So this did in fact, to me, seem like a confusing victory lap. 
 

Anyone wanna wager who gets their money back first?

 

Someone who bought a house in SF Bay Area in October 2021, or someone who bought Moderna stock in October 2021? You can include dividends in your calculations!

 

 

FYI

 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FLSTHPI

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NJSTHPI

 

[Gmthebeau]

2 hours ago, gfp said:

What did you do before you retired?

CFO of a business

[Gmthebeau]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

My guess is an author or something. Just a guess though.

 

Anyway, here’s the national data.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

 

Oct 2021 certainly don’t look like the top me. I actually closed on a NJ property early Sept ‘21 and it’s easily worth 25% more today. Even in outlier shitholes like SF I doubt anyone who bought in late 2021 with a 3% 30 year fixed is feeling too bad…and if you bought in the more sensible regions, well, you’re sitting pretty. So this did in fact, to me, seem like a confusing victory lap. 
 

Anyone wanna wager who gets their money back first?

 

Someone who bought a house in SF Bay Area in October 2021, or someone who bought Moderna stock in October 2021? You can include dividends in your calculations!

 

 

FYI

 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FLSTHPI

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NJSTHPI

 

all I really remember is you acting like SF property would moon forever.  I said otherwise.  We see how that worked out, but I get you will use whatever alternative facts makes you feel good. 

[Gregmal]

4 minutes ago, Gmthebeau said:

all I really remember is you acting like SF property would moon forever.  I said otherwise.  We see how that worked out, but I get you will use whatever alternative facts makes you feel good. 

Lol sure. Wanna do that Tesla vs APTS chart from 10/2021-now, again? I mean you can accuse me of whatever you want, but I don’t think there is a single person on this site who isn’t aware I’ve been long sunbelt and long housing while shitting on crappily run blue state cities since pretty much July 2020. You touted shitcos and fad stocks as “the new way to invest” and then disappeared for two years after they all blew up. Then return doing a victory lap on a housing implosion that….never happened. 
 

 

[Gregmal]

17 minutes ago, Gmthebeau said:

CFO of a business

Ok changing my guess of author to Lemonade stand then. 
 

 

Edit: anyhow here’s SF…just a weee little bit better than Moderna but who’s counting?

 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS41884Q

Edited July 4, 2023 by Gregmal

[Gmthebeau]

8 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Ok changing my guess of author to Lemonade stand then. 
 

 

Edit: anyhow here’s SF…just a weee little bit better than Moderna but who’s counting?

 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS41884Q

SF is down 35% from peak according to this.  https://wolfstreet.com/2023/02/17/san-francisco-bay-area-housing-market-crashes-prices-plunge-35-from-crazy-peak-where-is-demand-supposed-to-come-from/
 

it’s way down by any accurate measure.

 

I didn’t tell anyone to buy and hold MRNA or any other stock, so keep trying to rewrite history it’s what people who cant cope do

[Gmthebeau]

11 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Lol sure. Wanna do that Tesla vs APTS chart from 10/2021-now, again? I mean you can accuse me of whatever you want, but I don’t think there is a single person on this site who isn’t aware I’ve been long sunbelt and long housing while shitting on crappily run blue state cities since pretty much July 2020. You touted shitcos and fad stocks as “the new way to invest” and then disappeared for two years after they all blew up. Then return doing a victory lap on a housing implosion that….never happened. 
 

 

lol it’s all in the old messages for anyone who wants to read it.  I don’t need to argue with you which is why I left.  Small minded people like you just go on and on and on rewriting history.  I’m sure you are a full on Trump supporter lol

[Gregmal]

4 minutes ago, Gmthebeau said:

SF is down 35% from peak according to this.  https://wolfstreet.com/2023/02/17/san-francisco-bay-area-housing-market-crashes-prices-plunge-35-from-crazy-peak-where-is-demand-supposed-to-come-from/
 

it’s way down by any accurate measure.

 

I didn’t tell anyone to buy and hold MRNA or any other stock, so keep trying to rewrite history it’s what people who cant cope do

Lolololol. 
 

ok lemonade stand CFO…I’m done. We re arguing Wolfstreet vs FRED data….

 

I almost get the sense that you’re oblivious to what you’re doing here. Wolfstreet…lol

[Gmthebeau]

4 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Lolololol. 
 

ok lemonade stand CFO…I’m done. We re arguing Wolfstreet vs FRED data….

 

I almost get the sense that you’re oblivious to what you’re doing here. Wolfstreet…lol

thank god you are done I know you are oblivious to facts.  Good luck 

[Gregmal]

Yes. Wolfstreet vs FRED facts. Run along now little boy. 

[Gregmal]

On 10/25/2021 at 3:56 PM, thepupil said:

 

I repeat my prior feedback. There are plenty of companies discussed on this board. Not all of them engage in buggy whip manufacturing or own real estate.

 

You appear to be inclined to invest in high growth companies of the future. For ones where you have insights to share, please feel free to do so. 

 

You also appear bearish of real estate. there are numerous real estate (long) idea threads. Please feel free to share your thoughts regarding their intrinsic values and your rebuttals to the echo chamber / bull cacophony that can sometimes occur when Greg, BG, RealAssets, and I form a circle and start moving our arms up and down.

 

there are numerous types of investors on this board. high quality posts on the companies of the future would be welcome. high quality denigration of ideas is also welcome. have at it. 

 

I’ll just bump this one. 2 years ago this chump is citing FRED and telling us about long term trends and stocks like Tesla at $1t and Moderna at $350 a share and today he s citing Wolfstreet and saying he sold his long term stocks 2 months after pimping them. 

[Spekulatius]

SF real estate is definitely down , but not 35%. If I were to make a guess it’s probably more 10% (more in very swanky areas). I still have friends living in the Bay Area and nobody talks about RE down 35% so far. I do think a 35% crash in RE in the SF area is possible even with RE in the US overall not taking much of a hit.

 

I think we want a diversity of opinions here . Maybe it’s just me, but I want both the @Gregmal and the @Gmthebeau to post.

[Spooky]

Can someone please let me know what will happen with Canadian housing? I need a place to live without a giant mortgage.

[Saluki]

5 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

SF real estate is definitely down , but not 35%. If I were to make a guess it’s probably more 10% (more in very swanky areas). I still have friends living in the Bay Area and nobody talks about RE down 35% so far. I do think a 35% crash in RE in the SF area is possible even with RE in the US overall not taking much of a hit.

 

I think we want a diversity of opinions here . Maybe it’s just me, but I want both the @Gregmal and the @Gmthebeau to post.

 

Having lived in NYC for the first half of my life (and worked in construction with my Dad), Ive seen that real estate in some cities goes up and to the right for decades,, but not in a straight line, and it's usually the people that get in late on FOMO and bet everything on black are usually the ones who get wiped out and people like Ackman in General Growth who have money when no one is lending can do well.  But you have to keep reminding yourself that this time isn't different. Even Brookfield got caught on some properties that they overpaid for when interest rates seemed like they stay in low single digits forever. 

 

I lost a bunch in Florida before the great financial crash investing in some flips with my dad and brother. But I also bought a bank foreclosure condo in 2010 for $20k in Florida that Zillow says is now with $140k. The first was foolish because I knew the prices didn't make sense but I outsourced my judgement to my brother who had already flipped several successfully. The second one was just me sharpening my pencil and making my own decision. So I will always make mistakes but hopefully not the same ones.

 

Over time real estate tends work out because it's a spread bet between housing prices and inflation. If housing prices in NYC drop by 30% but the dollar gets cut in half due to inflation, then you will do okay in real estate especially with a mortgage because you borrowed in today's dollars and paid it back in future dollars which will probably be worth less.

 

And most people here don't know each other so unless you can point to a "what are you buying today " or "what are you selling today" post, everyone should be taken with a grain of salt.  I try to be transparent because fake data points don't help me and no one knows me so my ego isn't tied to peoples opinions here. And I've gotten useful feedback on many things by crowdsourcing gaps in my knowledge.

 

I have no specific knowledge about Tesla that would make me invest or short it. Better for me to just watch. It can't blow up if I don't own it or short it. I don't want to bet on it but I'd still like to learn to see if I am right the next time I spot it.

[SharperDingaan]

25 minutes ago, Spooky said:

Can someone please let me know what will happen with Canadian housing? I need a place to live without a giant mortgage.

 

Buy a place in Calgary and rent it out.

First-time buyers are struggling to come up with the DP, and monthly rent costs are roughly $300 > than 30% of the average paycheck after statutory deductions. Between rising interest rates, drought, wildfires, local politics, and lower energy prices; the provincial economy is in the sh1tter. Lot of folks are hurting, lot more/better inventory available (relative to Toronto/Vancouver), and prices are lower.

 

Energy prices will not stay at US70 forever, pipeline egress will largely be settled come Xmas, and population in-migration is likely to continue &/or accelerate as folks move for work. 

 

https://wowa.ca/calgary-housing-market

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/calgary-first-time-homebuyers-struggle-with-down-payments

 

Good luck!

 

SD

[Gregmal]

Canadian housing the past few decades is gonna be the blueprint for the current US housing boom. It was wild hearing people talk about bubbles in residential after a 20-30% move up after largely a decade of negligible gains following GFC. It was very reminiscent of the screams of a tech bubble in 2013 after everything went up about 30%. Cycles typically see multiples added, not +1.2x. COVID really just purged existing inventory and brought in institutional dollars and those homes are now the equivalent of items in a safety deposit box. Underneath all the lies last year there was tons of money being raised for rentals and SFH at the institutional levels. Especially in good markets. This is exactly the type of asset you wanna own in the 3-5% inflation environment especially over the long haul. 80% of non homeowners believe they’ll never be able to afford a home. That’s the type of privilege or luxury purchase mentality that puts a floor under a market. But then realize how much of the housing stock is now 20+ years old and the changing demographics. Most younger homeowners don’t want boomers McMansion they want new and modern homes. Only way out is through builders and builders seem to have learned their GFC lessons. It’s gonna be wild.

 

And yea, I too try to be pretty transparent with what I’m buying and selling. I don’t think there’s anyone who regularly hangs here that isn’t aware of pretty much what I own, how I own it, and the size I own it. So to each their own. This guy above is a bit of an exception because he came in here all guns blazing, mocking and talking shit to a lot of us during that October 2021 period, touting how no one knew anything, how we were idiots, and how he saw the future of investing with his stocks like Tesla and Moderna. This of course did tend to overlap with the top, just not the top for housing….

[Spooky]

19 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Canadian housing the past few decades is gonna be the blueprint for the current US housing boom.

 

I hope not. What is happening in Canada doesn't make sense, it is artificial scarcity. There is also a higher proportion of GDP and bank loans going to housing which is a non productive asset and is detrimental to long term productivity growth and prosperity.

[Spooky]

41 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

Buy a place in Calgary and rent it out.

First-time buyers are struggling to come up with the DP, and monthly rent costs are roughly $300 > than 30% of the average paycheck after statutory deductions. Between rising interest rates, drought, wildfires, local politics, and lower energy prices; the provincial economy is in the sh1tter. Lot of folks are hurting, lot more/better inventory available (relative to Toronto/Vancouver), and prices are lower.

 

Energy prices will not stay at US70 forever, pipeline egress will largely be settled come Xmas, and population in-migration is likely to continue &/or accelerate as folks move for work. 

 

https://wowa.ca/calgary-housing-market

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/calgary-first-time-homebuyers-struggle-with-down-payments

 

Good luck!

 

SD

 

Thanks SD, not a bad idea at all. Was talking to some friends from Calgary and they said the demographics of the city are changing fast, lots of new people moving there.

[Gregmal]

17 minutes ago, Spooky said:

 

I hope not. What is happening in Canada doesn't make sense, it is artificial scarcity. There is also a higher proportion of GDP and bank loans going to housing which is a non productive asset and is detrimental to long term productivity growth and prosperity.

Well, it’ll probably be worse going forward, especially in the US. You already had large portions of the country burdened by anti building government regulation. Crazy stuff like rent control too. But the cost of building was low. Anyone who was willing to put up with the bs could eventually get there. Today in many markets the financials don’t support or provide enough incentive to build more. So as we ve already seen, inventory will just remain tight. That’s what’s so laughable about all this “raise rates to kill inflation” nonsense….uhm, that’s not how you solve the inflation problem here…..but keep at it.
 

People complain about insider trading at the congressional level, but you know what the number one asset class is amongst the establishment elite? Real estate. 

[Gmthebeau]

12 hours ago, Gregmal said:

I’ll just bump this one. 2 years ago this chump is citing FRED and telling us about long term trends and stocks like Tesla at $1t and Moderna at $350 a share and today he s citing Wolfstreet and saying he sold his long term stocks 2 months after pimping them. 

dude you got to keep the money at the top.  I knew you weren’t done you are never done.  You can’t control your emotions.  You were saying 2 years ago S.F. housing would moon forever.  I disagreed and you went bonkers.  You turned out to be dead wrong.  I was correct.  Take it like a man.    Everyone on this board agreed with you it would continue to moon.  Best sign there is of a top is when everyone has FOMO and on same side of the trade.