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As predicted, market move was frothy


moore_capital54
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moore, you're my boy, but I really don't see why you're gloating here. You wrote on Feb 1st that had you a lot of cash on the sidelines. The S&P 500 closed that day at 1513.17. Today it hit 1530.94 (for the day's high). If it weren't for the late session downturn, the market would've gone up since you posted that. Even if we include today's closing prices, you timed it right, but only (so far anyway) but about 1.6%.

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Guest valueInv

LOL at this thread. Pointless.

It does make a point. You can read all the Buffet, Graham, etc but in the end, as Buffet says, its like dieting. Easy to understand, hard to follow.

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Hi Moore_capital - You do not find BAC selling for 20% below TBV and AIG around 55% TBV amazing value? 

 

Hope you all took some nice profits. As I said two weeks ago, we have never been so under invested and look forward to redeploying that capital at better valuations.

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I thought this was a value investors forum? OP, are you saying you never read the intelligent investor?

 

Don't try to time the market (no one can). Buy when a high value wide-moat business is undervalued with a high enough margin of safety  (and optionally sell when it's sufficiently overvalued).

 

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I thought this was a value investors forum? OP, are you saying you never read the intelligent investor?

 

Don't try to time the market (no one can). Buy when a high value wide-moat business is undervalued with a high enough margin of safety  (and optionally sell when it's sufficiently overvalued).

 

OMG!  I have been investing for years, but never knew what I was doing.  I was floating in a sea of despair.  I knew I was searching for the right way to invest, but the fact that I didn't know what I was looking for made it that much harder to find.  They say when the student is ready the teacher will appear.  And here you are.  Look at this treasure trove.  Don't time the market.  Check.  Buy a high value wide moat business!  Check . . . um, could you perhaps explain this "wide moat" concept?  Also, you mention "the intelligent investor".  What is that?  Who wrote it?  Thanks very much!

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Moore has been a great contributor for the forum and I have certainly learned a lot from him. 

 

Unlike many of us here who manage money for our private accounts, he actually manages quite a large sum for people.

 

The boundary condition that he has to operate under is different from private investors'. No need to go overboard here....

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I thought this was a value investors forum? OP, are you saying you never read the intelligent investor?

 

Don't try to time the market (no one can). Buy when a high value wide-moat business is undervalued with a high enough margin of safety  (and optionally sell when it's sufficiently overvalued).

 

OMG!  I have been investing for years, but never knew what I was doing.  I was floating in a sea of despair.  I knew I was searching for the right way to invest, but the fact that I didn't know what I was looking for made it that much harder to find.  They say when the student is ready the teacher will appear.  And here you are.  Look at this treasure trove.  Don't time the market.  Check.  Buy a high value wide moat business!  Check . . . um, could you perhaps explain this "wide moat" concept?  Also, you mention "the intelligent investor".  What is that?  Who wrote it?  Thanks very much!

 

+1

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I like Moore but he needs to admit that Ericopoly was right about the price of gas in California as evidence of hyperinflation (his take) vs. a short-term supply issue (my take).  I can't suffer the survivorship bias of gloating with only the predictions that are working out  :D

 

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I thought this was a value investors forum? OP, are you saying you never read the intelligent investor?

 

Don't try to time the market (no one can). Buy when a high value wide-moat business is undervalued with a high enough margin of safety  (and optionally sell when it's sufficiently overvalued).

 

OMG!  I have been investing for years, but never knew what I was doing.  I was floating in a sea of despair.  I knew I was searching for the right way to invest, but the fact that I didn't know what I was looking for made it that much harder to find.  They say when the student is ready the teacher will appear.  And here you are.  Look at this treasure trove.  Don't time the market.  Check.  Buy a high value wide moat business!  Check . . . um, could you perhaps explain this "wide moat" concept?  Also, you mention "the intelligent investor".  What is that?  Who wrote it?  Thanks very much!

 

Haha lol  ;D

 

I figured it would have been clear referring to the most-well known value investing book ever was meant jokingly. Perhaps I should have stopped after the first sentence. However the point I made stands. Tomorrow the market will either be flat, go up or go down ;)

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Forecasting is a tricky business: there are so many ways of being wrong timing the market:

 

* Being wrong on the move while being wrong on the reasons: no comments

* Being wrong while being right: markets do strange things in the ST.

* Being right while being wrong : luck has the nasty habit of catching up later.

* Being right on move despite the reasons... but then missing back in the market.

 

And in the meantime BAC, AIG, tarp warrants, you know the drill. The game of probabilities and regrets.

 

 

 

 

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Cullen Roche of Orcam Financial Group had a great quote this morning regarding so called "market timing":

 

My job as risk manager has always been to identify when these potential disequilibriums are occurring. I don’t think of it as timing the market. I think of it as viewing the summation of the system’s variables and deciphering whether the odds create the potential for instability. Success is often about playing probabilities as opposed to guessing about future events.
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Incidentally, you guys are being too hard on Moore.  He's premature...that's what she said...I couldn't resist...but not necessarily wrong. 

 

When you can't find something, hold cash.  When you find something, buy it.  We have lots of cash because I couldn't find stuff that I could commit to and liked.  But for the last three days, I've been buying alot of one stock...so there you go.  Things can change in a hurry in this business...you have to be flexible.  Cheers! 

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Incidentally, you guys are being too hard on Moore.  He's premature...that's what she said...I couldn't resist...but not necessarily wrong. 

 

When you can't find something, hold cash.  When you find something, buy it.  We have lots of cash because I couldn't find stuff that I could commit to and liked.  But for the last three days, I've been buying alot of one stock...so there you go.  Things can change in a hurry in this business...you have to be flexible.  Cheers!

 

SD?

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