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ShahKhezri

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  1. First, welcome! Second, I think there are nuggets from most everybody here that in combination works well when you find out what kind of investor you are. There are folks here that have very concentrated portfolios and others with a lot of investments, lots of leverage vs. very little leverage, LEAP exposure, etc. All styles can work if you have the temperament and patience that comes with the ups and downs (the inevitable). I think the board is great when people leave their ego behind the stroke of the keyboard and have an "I want to learn as much as I can" attitude, which is true probably 98%-99% of the time. COBF is truly a great collection of very inquisitive people and although I think there are some people that routinely bring a unique perspective, I wouldn't necessarily call them the only smart members. Good luck! I don't post much, I think this is my first post in 8 or 9 months, I've been a member for 8+ years though and I used to be somewhat more active without the red tape. My job doesn't allow me to post ideas or comment on specific ideas and I'm pretty much limited to investing in ETF's because getting approval for a specific equity likely takes 2-3 days depending on my boss's travel schedule. However, I still visit the site 3-4x a day. Shahin Khezri
  2. He also defended Corzine, not sure is support means much.
  3. Sold 1/3 of IWM puts, bought back covered calls on NOV (at 70) and CF (at 195)...looking to put those on again at lower strikes, possibly in the money, get called and put to better use. With the liquidity from the IWM puts, bought my last addition of SD (avg at 5.25 now) and added AAPL, now 2/3 done (avg of 418 now)
  4. Long: 101.4% Short: -27.1% Net 74.3.% SFL, CHK, DECK, MBI - combined for 0.25%, these are leftovers from positions that were called VPRT- 1% AWLCF - 1.5% Gold Basket (GG, AUY, PAAS, NGD, AEM): 11.8%, purchased two weeks ago AAPL- 3.2% SD- 3.9% NOV- 4% CF- 5.6% BH- 11.2% SHLD- 12% MKL- 15% FRFHF- 30.5% Covered calls currently on NOV, CF, AEM, GG, VPRT and sold puts today on SHLD
  5. I've been short WFM since the mid-90's (price not year). The barriers to entry are much easier to overcome now. Most grocers are copying the success of WFM...for a very long time WFM was an exclusive provider of organic/gluten free products and I believe most grocers thought it was a trend/fad. However, the market got bigger and now a lot of the growth in the grocery business is on the product/distribution side (WWAV, BDBD, HAIN). I'm a loyal TJ's shopper and agree with your point, I'm also from TX and having visited many of the stores, conversations w/mgmt and new store layouts, they understand it. I think the TJ model is very powerful, the employees are very nice, shopping experience is great and I don't feel like I'm paying an arm and a leg. I wish they were public, I'd love to see their margins.
  6. I own a lot of junk siliver that I purchased in 2003. For gold, I own a decent amount of MS-63 and MS-65 St. Gauden's and Umberto Lire's that I also bought in 2003. My dealer was Burt Blumert (RIP) from Camino Coin, thought they were highly reliable and ethical. Even with the recent drop in the gold price, I probably look up the prices once a year, keep it in the safe and haven't thought about selling them.
  7. I just want to say I was talking to an MD at an investment bank today, the discussion revolved around where to look for investments...his answer was that he takes all of his money in his checking account and buys JNK/HYLD/M.Reits/MLP's because "it's so much better than what I'm getting in my checking account" I was shocked, if people that know a lot of finance/investing are making these kind of "reach for yield" decisions, I can't imagine what people that know a little about finance/investing are doing.
  8. I agree...I put about 1% of my portfolio in IWM puts, May 87's yesterday. Insurance is cheap. I am 100% long, 20% short.
  9. Would anyone here be against them doubling down at these levels? I wouldn't.
  10. By collateral is how I used to calculate the returns. I haven't done any for a year or so because of my job. In response to the second question, if the stock at that lower price is something you want to own, the return looks good. I had a friend who made a disaster of a trade about two years ago...FSLR puts at $90 strike with a month out had decent premiums so he went in and sold 2 of them...got put the stock and at that point it wasn't a disaster but he decided to sell calls on it "to make it back". Anyways, that was his relocation package so he lost about 80% in a 3 month period and ended up in a not so pleasant part of Austin. The way I used to do it, I had a list of 5-10 stocks that I liked and had studied, then I'd go 90% x current price, 1 month out. The list at the time included Dell, Visa, Advanced Auto Parts and Cisco.
  11. http://fairfax.ca/files/Letter%20to%20Shareholders%20from%20Annual%20Report%202012%20FINAL_v001_o7033s.pdf
  12. Moore's not a permabear (read his past posts), he manages money for other people and that means he has to manage risk differently.
  13. That's really interesting...mind if I ask how you came to that? I also tend to agree with Packer...if you to a WTIC divided by Natgas over the last 20 years, you can see for 15 year trading between 6-8...then the range goes all the way up to 50...crazy.
  14. Newsflash, how many value investors at the top of the Forbes 500 list too? Some will claim Buffett, but I'd argue he got there by building a business not pure investing. I think this sort of video is infuriating to investors on this board because most put in so much work for returns far less then her. I don't get the technical stuff, but if it really is as easy to watch squiggles and make money for some people why learn any more? It's not like knowing depreciation schedules or pension accounting is helpful in getting a significant other. Can you imagine someone saying "Once I brought up LIFO at dinner she said I was the one" I invest this way because it makes sense to me, not because it's the best. I think there are far better and quicker ways to make money, unfortunately that's not what comes natural to me. I completely agree. You have to do what matches your personality and what you are comfortable with. I've seen people make some ridiculous investments based on what I thought and they turned out to be wildly successful, sometimes that's how the dice rolls. I'd compare value investing to walking into a casino and counting cards, it takes time, patience and a lot of skill. Doesn't mean the guy at the craps table or roulette won't hit big. After graduating from college in '06 I had a group of friends that went to work at Rackspace and they went balls to the walls in their 401k every paycheck, every quarter for 5 years...meanwhile I was the analyst working on credit packages to lend to Rackspace...at no point in that timeframe did RAX look cheap...and they had no clue on valuation/cash flow, etc...and I'm glad none of them took my advice...they live a very comfortable life right now. Is that infuriating? no, because they are good friends and I wish them nothing but the best, but it does tick me off at times. Technical analysis does work under the right circumstances and if you follow the rules (take losses quickly, manage trades)...actually there's a lot to admire about a system that is very rules focused and takes emotions out (not all). You're not going to make an absolute killing like Eric and the BAC trade because most of the TA folks focus on a very short term mindset, a 10-15% breakout in a 2 week period with 2-3 day consolidation is a successful trade...and then they scan 100's of charts for the next setup...most people here don't like it because it's not mentally stimulating and it's not their stroke. That's fine, buying a stock is not like religion where if you don't do it right (trading, technical analysis, small cap growth, gold, etc) you go to hell and if you do it right (value investing the Warren Buffett way) you go to heaven. Insider trading is a different story and I hope Steven Cohen gets what he deserves :) WB did technical analysis, Berkowitz did too...I'm assuming at some point their personalities led them to another direction and they grew up...that's what people do. I started investing in '99 and the first stock I bought was Egghead.com...if Rachael is smart, which she clearly is having graduated hs at 16 and started investing at an early age, at some point she will grow up. Best of luck to her. Value investing makes sense to me because it matches my personality and I enjoy the discussions on this board. I couldn't imagine being on a board that posted charts and discussed moving averages, bollinger bands and aroon indicators.
  15. This thread feels like an AA meeting. I've been a shareholder for 5 years. The last 3 have been frustrating, but I bought in 2008 so my avg is in the low 200's and starting this year I started re-investing my dividends, because to a certain point I agree with JEast. In 2009 and 2010 I sold a significant position in the low 400's...but at the height of 2008, FFH represented as much as 110% of my portfolio if I include the option position I had. There are threads with arguments on why their underwriting is crappy. I agree that in the past they underperfoms; going forward I disagree, having been a P&C underwriter and knowing full well that there are no superstar underwriters out there that only write 70% CR's, your CR is as good as the markets you serve. RLI writes in such a small pie with little competition and they are able to price their way. You can look at HCC and basically this goes for most insurance...you're size determines the markets you serve and your economics. There are no insurance companies with 10Bn market cap and consistent 80% combined. Chubb and TRV are special though, but even they don't avg 80% through a full cycle. With that said, I believe you can look forward to better results. 1) in the past C&F represented a higher % of premiums than today, Zenith, Mercury (both bought at cyclical lows) and Asian ops will improve. 2) Northbridge's market was pretty tough, I had a good friend (no longer in the business) but he was an underwriter for an entity that competed directly with NB and there were tough times. Going forward...legacy issues at C&F and NB will be less of a problem...CR should improve and if you're invested in FFH with an assumption/expectation of 80-90% CR consistently, I think you are looking in the wrong place.
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