moore_capital54 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Hope you all took some nice profits. As I said two weeks ago, we have never been so under invested and look forward to redeploying that capital at better valuations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Mr Market is a moody, whiny little baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 moore, you're my boy, but I really don't see why you're gloating here. You wrote on Feb 1st that had you a lot of cash on the sidelines. The S&P 500 closed that day at 1513.17. Today it hit 1530.94 (for the day's high). If it weren't for the late session downturn, the market would've gone up since you posted that. Even if we include today's closing prices, you timed it right, but only (so far anyway) but about 1.6%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hielko Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Who cares about 2% up or down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beerbaron Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Might I remind every forecasters in this forum that not too long ago we could have ±4% days on the S&P 500... BeerBaron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finetrader Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 It's crashing!!!!!!!! Sell everything now!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkp007 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 LOL at this thread. Pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest valueInv Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 LOL at this thread. Pointless. It does make a point. You can read all the Buffet, Graham, etc but in the end, as Buffet says, its like dieting. Easy to understand, hard to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ourkid8 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Hi Moore_capital - You do not find BAC selling for 20% below TBV and AIG around 55% TBV amazing value? Hope you all took some nice profits. As I said two weeks ago, we have never been so under invested and look forward to redeploying that capital at better valuations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobp Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 " Don't you see what's happening? Potter isn't selling. Potter's buying! And why? Because we're panicking and he's not. That's why. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 And if the market surges 5% over the next few mos, y'all be like "I was early bitchez". #permabears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I thought this was a value investors forum? OP, are you saying you never read the intelligent investor? Don't try to time the market (no one can). Buy when a high value wide-moat business is undervalued with a high enough margin of safety (and optionally sell when it's sufficiently overvalued). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jay21 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Up 100, market looking frothy today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShahKhezri Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Moore's not a permabear (read his past posts), he manages money for other people and that means he has to manage risk differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraven Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I thought this was a value investors forum? OP, are you saying you never read the intelligent investor? Don't try to time the market (no one can). Buy when a high value wide-moat business is undervalued with a high enough margin of safety (and optionally sell when it's sufficiently overvalued). OMG! I have been investing for years, but never knew what I was doing. I was floating in a sea of despair. I knew I was searching for the right way to invest, but the fact that I didn't know what I was looking for made it that much harder to find. They say when the student is ready the teacher will appear. And here you are. Look at this treasure trove. Don't time the market. Check. Buy a high value wide moat business! Check . . . um, could you perhaps explain this "wide moat" concept? Also, you mention "the intelligent investor". What is that? Who wrote it? Thanks very much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippy1 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Moore has been a great contributor for the forum and I have certainly learned a lot from him. Unlike many of us here who manage money for our private accounts, he actually manages quite a large sum for people. The boundary condition that he has to operate under is different from private investors'. No need to go overboard here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enoch01 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I thought this was a value investors forum? OP, are you saying you never read the intelligent investor? Don't try to time the market (no one can). Buy when a high value wide-moat business is undervalued with a high enough margin of safety (and optionally sell when it's sufficiently overvalued). OMG! I have been investing for years, but never knew what I was doing. I was floating in a sea of despair. I knew I was searching for the right way to invest, but the fact that I didn't know what I was looking for made it that much harder to find. They say when the student is ready the teacher will appear. And here you are. Look at this treasure trove. Don't time the market. Check. Buy a high value wide moat business! Check . . . um, could you perhaps explain this "wide moat" concept? Also, you mention "the intelligent investor". What is that? Who wrote it? Thanks very much! +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I like Moore but he needs to admit that Ericopoly was right about the price of gas in California as evidence of hyperinflation (his take) vs. a short-term supply issue (my take). I can't suffer the survivorship bias of gloating with only the predictions that are working out :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I thought this was a value investors forum? OP, are you saying you never read the intelligent investor? Don't try to time the market (no one can). Buy when a high value wide-moat business is undervalued with a high enough margin of safety (and optionally sell when it's sufficiently overvalued). OMG! I have been investing for years, but never knew what I was doing. I was floating in a sea of despair. I knew I was searching for the right way to invest, but the fact that I didn't know what I was looking for made it that much harder to find. They say when the student is ready the teacher will appear. And here you are. Look at this treasure trove. Don't time the market. Check. Buy a high value wide moat business! Check . . . um, could you perhaps explain this "wide moat" concept? Also, you mention "the intelligent investor". What is that? Who wrote it? Thanks very much! Haha lol ;D I figured it would have been clear referring to the most-well known value investing book ever was meant jokingly. Perhaps I should have stopped after the first sentence. However the point I made stands. Tomorrow the market will either be flat, go up or go down ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlanMaestro Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Forecasting is a tricky business: there are so many ways of being wrong timing the market: * Being wrong on the move while being wrong on the reasons: no comments * Being wrong while being right: markets do strange things in the ST. * Being right while being wrong : luck has the nasty habit of catching up later. * Being right on move despite the reasons... but then missing back in the market. And in the meantime BAC, AIG, tarp warrants, you know the drill. The game of probabilities and regrets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 " Don't you see what's happening? Potter isn't selling. Potter's buying! And why? Because we're panicking and he's not. That's why. " One of my favorite lines, from my favorite movie of all time! Notice the quote on my posts. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmichaud Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Cullen Roche of Orcam Financial Group had a great quote this morning regarding so called "market timing": My job as risk manager has always been to identify when these potential disequilibriums are occurring. I don’t think of it as timing the market. I think of it as viewing the summation of the system’s variables and deciphering whether the odds create the potential for instability. Success is often about playing probabilities as opposed to guessing about future events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Incidentally, you guys are being too hard on Moore. He's premature...that's what she said...I couldn't resist...but not necessarily wrong. When you can't find something, hold cash. When you find something, buy it. We have lots of cash because I couldn't find stuff that I could commit to and liked. But for the last three days, I've been buying alot of one stock...so there you go. Things can change in a hurry in this business...you have to be flexible. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmichaud Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Incidentally, you guys are being too hard on Moore. He's premature...that's what she said...I couldn't resist...but not necessarily wrong. When you can't find something, hold cash. When you find something, buy it. We have lots of cash because I couldn't find stuff that I could commit to and liked. But for the last three days, I've been buying alot of one stock...so there you go. Things can change in a hurry in this business...you have to be flexible. Cheers! SD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I've been buying alot of one stock... Some kind of fruit company? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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