Fairfax 2026

[Viking]

25 minutes ago, Duke In Shadows said:

 

 

Garbage In, Garbage Out

Spent a few hours last week fixing the Fairfax Financial Wikipedia page. Here's why I think it actually matters.

Wikipedia has become the de facto starting point for how companies are understood online....and increasingly, it's a primary upstream source for LLMs. In my own testing across ~8 AI tools, almost all of them were pulling directly or indirectly, when answering questions about Fairfax. One tool served me financial data that was five years out of date. Straight from Wikipedia.

 

The page was a mess. Outdated financials, wrong subsidiary info, stale legacy content, and factual errors. including confusion with Markel Group. If I knew nothing about the company and relied on an AI summary, I'd walk away more confused than informed.

 

What's worse is that this stuff doesn't stay on Wikipedia. I have found the same incorrect information repackaged on paid research platforms and data services. Traced most of it back to the same source. Yes, you can override it with better prompting or by feeding filings directly in. But most people don't. And they shouldn't have to.

 

I couldn't fix everything, but I focused on correcting what was clearly wrong and adding some interesting/relevant details. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fairfax_Financial

@Duke In Shadows, that is a significant improvement. Well done!

[cwericb]

29 minutes ago, Duke In Shadows said:

 

 

Garbage In, Garbage Out

Spent a few hours last week fixing the Fairfax Financial Wikipedia page. Here's why I think it actually matters.

Wikipedia has become the de facto starting point for how companies are understood online....and increasingly, it's a primary upstream source for LLMs. In my own testing across ~8 AI tools, almost all of them were pulling directly or indirectly, when answering questions about Fairfax. One tool served me financial data that was five years out of date. Straight from Wikipedia.

 

The page was a mess. Outdated financials, wrong subsidiary info, stale legacy content, and factual errors. including confusion with Markel Group. If I knew nothing about the company and relied on an AI summary, I'd walk away more confused than informed.

 

What's worse is that this stuff doesn't stay on Wikipedia. I have found the same incorrect information repackaged on paid research platforms and data services. Traced most of it back to the same source. Yes, you can override it with better prompting or by feeding filings directly in. But most people don't. And they shouldn't have to.

 

I couldn't fix everything, but I focused on correcting what was clearly wrong and adding some interesting/relevant details. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fairfax_Financial

 

Thank you for this. Perhaps Viking might find time to give you a hand on this? And I am quite sure that the Wiki page has an impact on new investors. The fact that Fairfax does little to advertise itself, I am sure has an affect on share price.

[Maverick47]

1 hour ago, Duke In Shadows said:

 

 

Garbage In, Garbage Out

Spent a few hours last week fixing the Fairfax Financial Wikipedia page. Here's why I think it actually matters.

Wikipedia has become the de facto starting point for how companies are understood online....and increasingly, it's a primary upstream source for LLMs. In my own testing across ~8 AI tools, almost all of them were pulling directly or indirectly, when answering questions about Fairfax. One tool served me financial data that was five years out of date. Straight from Wikipedia.

 

The page was a mess. Outdated financials, wrong subsidiary info, stale legacy content, and factual errors. including confusion with Markel Group. If I knew nothing about the company and relied on an AI summary, I'd walk away more confused than informed.

 

What's worse is that this stuff doesn't stay on Wikipedia. I have found the same incorrect information repackaged on paid research platforms and data services. Traced most of it back to the same source. Yes, you can override it with better prompting or by feeding filings directly in. But most people don't. And they shouldn't have to.

 

I couldn't fix everything, but I focused on correcting what was clearly wrong and adding some interesting/relevant details. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fairfax_Financial

Thanks @Duke In Shadows!  With all the focus on AI and LLMs, this is something that never occurred to me.  Really appreciate your work on the Wikipedia page!

[TwoCitiesCapital]

How come all the AI and LLMs didnt update this for us by going through the 10K/10Qs? 

 

Methinks they're too lazy to steal out jobs. 

Edited March 4 by TwoCitiesCapital

[djokovic1]

6 hours ago, Txvestor said:

Well, looking at it over 10yrs there has been a couple of points of divergence.  
Markel $561-->$1430(~10%PA)

Fairfax $403-->$1260(~12%PA)

However taken over 5yrs, Fairfax has done much better

yes that’s the output (2% compounding difference over 10 years is huge!)

 

but we are talking about different hurdles rates. Seemingly 10% for Markel and 15% for Fairfax

[gfp]

Odyssey Re year-end NAIC filing.  Looks like they made a $2.5m investment in Sanjeev's fund back in 2017 and are down big?  Is that correct?

 

 

 

 

ODY_INV_23680.2025.P.AN.PI.O.M.5062491.pdf

[treasurehunt]

2 hours ago, djokovic1 said:

yes that’s the output (2% compounding difference over 10 years is huge!)

 

but we are talking about different hurdles rates. Seemingly 10% for Markel and 15% for Fairfax

 

Also, TxInvestor's comparison ignores dividends. That should be another percentage point or more in Fairfax's favor.

[djokovic1]

And here is the dividend adjusted share price comparison for 10 and 20 years for the 2. Surprisingly close to their hurdle rates! It's not even in the same ball park over long time horizons. Which horse would you pay much more for? It's pretty clear. The great news for FFH shareholders is Fairfax is still! cheaper than Markel. Maybe roughly similar on book value but Fairfax has close to 2x the earnings power of Markel, so on a price to earnings ratio it is at a ~50% discount to Markel. Most of that delta in the Fairfax horsepower comes down their prudent use of investment leverage relative to their equity which allows them to compound at higher rates than Markel (and also better capital allocation decisions over the last 20 years notwithstanding all the big mistakes of equity hedging, blackberry etc). I am pretty sure the big mistake of equity hedging will not be repeated. I can't think of a good reason of why one should own Markel over Fairfax? (apart from not wanting to sell Markel for tax reasons).

10 year:

Markel: Absolute return: 132%, 8.8% CAGR

FFH: Absolute return: 294%, 14.7% CAGR

 

20 year: 

 

Markel: Absolute return: 469%, 9.1% CAGR

FFH: Absolute return: 1648%, 15.4% CAGR

[anshulp]

9 hours ago, Duke In Shadows said:

 

 

Garbage In, Garbage Out

Spent a few hours last week fixing the Fairfax Financial Wikipedia page. Here's why I think it actually matters.

Wikipedia has become the de facto starting point for how companies are understood online....and increasingly, it's a primary upstream source for LLMs. In my own testing across ~8 AI tools, almost all of them were pulling directly or indirectly, when answering questions about Fairfax. One tool served me financial data that was five years out of date. Straight from Wikipedia.

 

The page was a mess. Outdated financials, wrong subsidiary info, stale legacy content, and factual errors. including confusion with Markel Group. If I knew nothing about the company and relied on an AI summary, I'd walk away more confused than informed.

 

What's worse is that this stuff doesn't stay on Wikipedia. I have found the same incorrect information repackaged on paid research platforms and data services. Traced most of it back to the same source. Yes, you can override it with better prompting or by feeding filings directly in. But most people don't. And they shouldn't have to.

 

I couldn't fix everything, but I focused on correcting what was clearly wrong and adding some interesting/relevant details. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fairfax_Financial

amazing. 

 

I usually do like to read the wiki for companies when I haven't heard of them, just hadn't looked at fairfax.  

 

Really well written also.

[SafetyinNumbers]

6 hours ago, gfp said:

Odyssey Re year-end NAIC filing.  Looks like they made a $2.5m investment in Sanjeev's fund back in 2017 and are down big?  Is that correct?

 

 

 

 

ODY_INV_23680.2025.P.AN.PI.O.M.5062491.pdf 2.12 MB · 22 downloads

Would AI be useful in analyzing this file vs the last one to tell us what changed? 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

3 hours ago, djokovic1 said:

And here is the dividend adjusted share price comparison for 10 and 20 years for the 2. Surprisingly close to their hurdle rates! It's not even in the same ball park over long time horizons. Which horse would you pay much more for? It's pretty clear. The great news for FFH shareholders is Fairfax is still! cheaper than Markel. Maybe roughly similar on book value but Fairfax has close to 2x the earnings power of Markel, so on a price to earnings ratio it is at a ~50% discount to Markel. Most of that delta in the Fairfax horsepower comes down their prudent use of investment leverage relative to their equity which allows them to compound at higher rates than Markel (and also better capital allocation decisions over the last 20 years notwithstanding all the big mistakes of equity hedging, blackberry etc). I am pretty sure the big mistake of equity hedging will not be repeated. I can't think of a good reason of why one should own Markel over Fairfax? (apart from not wanting to sell Markel for tax reasons).

10 year:

Markel: Absolute return: 132%, 8.8% CAGR

FFH: Absolute return: 294%, 14.7% CAGR

 

20 year: 

 

Markel: Absolute return: 469%, 9.1% CAGR

FFH: Absolute return: 1648%, 15.4% CAGR

 

I remember a few years back when there was a debate about which one people should own and which one would hit $1k first and out perform. 

 

I don't think it was as clear cut at that time and many people preferred Markel and Markel ventures. 

 

I'm glad to have picked the right horse. 

[Berk]

Curious how people are thinking about the current Iran conflict and potential disruption in the Strait of Hormuz in the context of Fairfax. Does this meaningfully affect Fairfax at all, either through its investment portfolio or through the insurance side? With Trump now reportedly discussing government guarantees for shipping insurance in the Gulf, I’m wondering whether insurers like Fairfax could actually benefit from higher war-risk premiums or whether the government backstop effectively caps that opportunity.

Edited March 5 by Berk

[Duke In Shadows]

DJT trying to take on Lloyd’s of London lolll

[gfp]

That's going to be super helpful for the families of the burnt up sailors 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

46 minutes ago, gfp said:

That's going to be super helpful for the families of the burnt up sailors 

 

Only 'suckers' and 'losers' ger burnt. Real heros avoid injury or dodge the draft - just ask DJT. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

46 minutes ago, gfp said:

That's going to be super helpful for the families of the burnt up sailors 

 

Only 'suckers' and 'losers' ger burnt. Real heros avoid injury or dodge the draft - just ask DJT. 

[gfp]

1 minute ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Only 'suckers' and 'losers' ger burnt. Real heros avoid injury or dodge the draft - just ask DJT. 

 

oh gosh I forgot about that whole John McCain thing where he was like, "I like people who weren't captured!"  A vintage classic at this point!  F'ing POW losers

[Hamburg Investor]

20 hours ago, djokovic1 said:

And here is the dividend adjusted share price comparison for 10 and 20 years for the 2. Surprisingly close to their hurdle rates! It's not even in the same ball park over long time horizons. Which horse would you pay much more for? It's pretty clear. The great news for FFH shareholders is Fairfax is still! cheaper than Markel. Maybe roughly similar on book value but Fairfax has close to 2x the earnings power of Markel, so on a price to earnings ratio it is at a ~50% discount to Markel. Most of that delta in the Fairfax horsepower comes down their prudent use of investment leverage relative to their equity which allows them to compound at higher rates than Markel (and also better capital allocation decisions over the last 20 years notwithstanding all the big mistakes of equity hedging, blackberry etc). I am pretty sure the big mistake of equity hedging will not be repeated. I can't think of a good reason of why one should own Markel over Fairfax? (apart from not wanting to sell Markel for tax reasons).

10 year:

Markel: Absolute return: 132%, 8.8% CAGR

FFH: Absolute return: 294%, 14.7% CAGR

 

20 year: 

 

Markel: Absolute return: 469%, 9.1% CAGR

FFH: Absolute return: 1648%, 15.4% CAGR

 

 

While I would buy FFH and not MKL today, I think such comparisons as an argument can mislead in a major way.

Just an example: End of 2010 FFH stood at $300 and 10 years later - again. That's without dividends, but that wouldn't really move the needle.

And MKL? Went from $380 to $1,000. More here: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/compare/mkl-vs-otc:frfhf/

Imagine you would have invested more into MKL back than with that comparison as an argument, and less into FFH. I mean: MKL was way better in that decade, wasn't it? You would have been much more happy holding MKL (and BRK) most of the 2010s than FFH. 

In the 19 years from 2003 until 2022 the returns of both were equal (That's not totally true, as FFH paid dividends, but you get my point...). What would that have told you? They seem to be really equal (and I don't know about the years before, as the chart begins 2003, so might be even longer equal)
 

And don't forget: Fairfax went through very strong valuation differences during the crisis at the beginning of the millennium... If another share then also experienced opposite valuations, for example, the results are very insignificant, despite the very long observation horizons.
 

I have held both and BRK since around 2012. I currently consider FFH to be the most promising. But things looked different in 2013, 2015, 2017. Markel did a lot of things right, but that changed between 2016 and 2020: FFH suddenly did more and more things right - and at MKL it was just the opposite. They slid into crisis, particularly in the insurance business, missing the change of bond yields etc. I held to both in the 2010s - and happily loaded bigger on FFH in 2020 (I sold other stocks, as I needed cash; so that FFH became a bigger portion; haven't bought than) and the following years (I bought big in 2022).

Yes, taxes are a good reason not to sell MKL; but to me on top of that it feels good, don't put all eggs in one basket (FFH currently accounts for around 45% of my portfolio, with BRK and MKL each accounting for around 10%; that feels better than 65% FFH to me).

Edited March 5 by Hamburg Investor

[Viking]

4 hours ago, Berk said:

Curious how people are thinking about the current Iran conflict and potential disruption in the Strait of Hormuz in the context of Fairfax. Does this meaningfully affect Fairfax at all, either through its investment portfolio or through the insurance side? With Trump now reportedly discussing government guarantees for shipping insurance in the Gulf, I’m wondering whether insurers like Fairfax could actually benefit from higher war-risk premiums or whether the government backstop effectively caps that opportunity.

@Berk, the possible impact of war in Iran on Fairfax really depends on two things:

• How long the war lasts.
• Timeframe used to measure impact on Fairfax: short term (next year) or medium term (next 3 to 5 years). 

The war is a big negative for countries/regions that import oil/gas. We have seen equities and currencies of these regions sell off (India, Europe, emerging markets). Fairfax owns stocks in Greece and India - these have sold off aggressively over the past week. 
 

Exploiting volatility is a super power of Fairfax’s. If this war continues at its current pace for months (unlikely) we will likely see carnage in financial markets. This would present Fairfax with opportunity. 
 

Bottom line, my view is the war is a short term negative for Fairfax. And possibly a benefit longer term (should it continue). Of course the most likely outcome is TACO (Trump declares victory and suddenly exits). And that would likely be neutral for Fairfax (we return to the pre-war dynamic).

Edited March 5 by Viking

[Munger_Disciple]

17 minutes ago, Viking said:

@Berk, the possible impact of war in Iran on Fairfax really depends on two things:

• How long the war lasts.
• Timeframe used to measure impact on Fairfax: short term (next year) or medium term (next 3 to 5 years). 

The war is a big negative for countries/regions that import oil/gas. We have seen equities and currencies of these regions sell off (India, Europe, emerging markets). Fairfax owns stocks in Greece and India - these have sold off aggressively over the past week. 
 

Exploiting volatility is a super power of Fairfax’s. If this war continues at its current pace for months (unlikely) we will likely see carnage in financial markets. This would present Fairfax with opportunity. 
 

Bottom line, my view is the war is a short term negative for Fairfax. And possibly a benefit longer term (should it continue). Of course the most likely outcome is TACO (Trump declares victory and suddenly exits). And that would likely be neutral for Fairfax (we return to the pre-war dynamic).

 

I would add insurance exposure to the middle east as well to the potential short-term negatives. Hopefully, there is a "war exclusion" clause in the policies written. 

[Marco Van Basten]

5 minutes ago, Munger_Disciple said:

 

I would add insurance exposure to the middle east as well to the potential short-term negatives. Hopefully, there is a "war exclusion" clause in the policies written. 

Usually there is.  

[Crip1]

17 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

I remember a few years back when there was a debate about which one people should own and which one would hit $1k first and out perform. 

 

 

I definitely remember that, it was well over 10 years ago as MKL hit $1K roughly 9 years ago. I remember thinking at the time, and may have offered this up at the time, that MKL would likely hit $1K before FFH but FFH would likely win the race to $2k. Clearly MKL has won both "races". If we're looking to $3K, then i think Fairfax, despite being farther back right now, is the odd-on favorite, at least on this board. It would be interesting to see that thread as some of the observations likely aged better than others.

 

If it's a matter of FFH or MKL I would prefer to have FFH (in fact, i have about 4 times as much money in FFH than I do in MKL), but I don't see a reason why one can't hold both...and hold Berkshire as well. In terms of value vs price, FFH looks to be the better investment at this time, but that's very fluid to say the least. 

 

-Crip

[Hamburg Investor]

1 hour ago, Viking said:

@Berk, the possible impact of war in Iran on Fairfax really depends on two things:

• How long the war lasts.
• Timeframe used to measure impact on Fairfax: short term (next year) or medium term (next 3 to 5 years). 

The war is a big negative for countries/regions that import oil/gas. We have seen equities and currencies of these regions sell off (India, Europe, emerging markets). Fairfax owns stocks in Greece and India - these have sold off aggressively over the past week. 
 

Exploiting volatility is a super power of Fairfax’s. If this war continues at its current pace for months (unlikely) we will likely see carnage in financial markets. This would present Fairfax with opportunity. 
 

Bottom line, my view is the war is a short term negative for Fairfax. And possibly a benefit longer term (should it continue). Of course the most likely outcome is TACO (Trump declares victory and suddenly exits). And that would likely be neutral for Fairfax (we return to the pre-war dynamic).

I am a bit surprised. Doesn’t your recent post regarding ressources point in the opposite direction?

Positive (or am I wrong?):

- Oil, gas, gold - all up. Fairfax holds a lot of stocks with relations to that. 

- Bond yields are up: So every day the war continues, some bonds role over; those are yielding higher now - good for FFH. (don‘t forget, for every dollar in equity, FFH holds 2 dollar in bonds. Yields were below 4% befire the war began, now they are up to 4.1x%. 

- inflation goes up (or: don‘t get down that much). Good for premium growth in P&C, as the recovery costs are rising and insurers have to pass the costs to insurance clients. 

- And there is volatility in stocks - good for FFH as they are a cash machine, having to invest somewhere. So the chances are rising to find interesting, cheaper new investments

- There’s also a drag on FFHs stock price - so buybacks are cheaper and returns on buybacks are higher.

 

Negative:

- Greece and other countries stocks are down (but not necessarily intrinsic value, or just a bit; so maybe buying opportunities at stocks, where Prem is already interested)

- TRS down (so less returns shortterm)

 

So my thinking would be:

- TACO scenario would be like a shortterm push on nearly all fronts, so net positive 

- longerterm positive as well (and following your argument even more buying opportunities occuring)

 

What do I miss?

Edited March 5 by Hamburg Investor

[Hamburg Investor]

32 minutes ago, Crip1 said:

If it's a matter of FFH or MKL I would prefer to have FFH (in fact, i have about 4 times as much money in FFH than I do in MKL), but I don't see a reason why one can't hold both...and hold Berkshire as well. In terms of value vs price, FFH looks to be the better investment at this time, but that's very fluid to say the least. 

We seem to be invested relatively similar. 4 times more FFH than MKL and BRK.

 

What‘s your rational in holding all three? Is  it the combination of float investing, relatively high investment into equity (in contradt to other insurers investing more into bonds), value approach and honesty of management, decentralization, culture, diversification/serial acquirer?

 

To me, that similarities define their moats and outperformance.

[Viking]

1 hour ago, Hamburg Investor said:

I am a bit surprised. Doesn’t your recent post regarding ressources point in the opposite direction?

Positive (or am I wrong?):

- Oil, gas, gold - all up. Fairfax holds a lot of stocks with relations to that. 

- Bond yields are up: So every day the war continues, some bonds role over; those are yielding higher now - good for FFH. (don‘t forget, for every dollar in equity, FFH holds 2 dollar in bonds. Yields were below 4% befire the war began, now they are up to 4.1x%. 

- inflation goes up (or: don‘t get down that much). Good for premium growth in P&C, as the recovery costs are rising and insurers have to pass the costs to insurance clients. 

- And there is volatility in stocks - good for FFH as they are a cash machine, having to invest somewhere. So the chances are rising to find interesting, cheaper new investments

- There’s also a drag on FFHs stock price - so buybacks are cheaper and returns on buybacks are higher.

 

Negative:

- Greece and other countries stocks are down (but not necessarily intrinsic value, or just a bit; so maybe buying opportunities at stocks, where Prem is already interested)

- TRS down (so less returns shortterm)

 

So my thinking would be:

- TACO scenario would be like a shortterm push on nearly all fronts, so net positive 

- longerterm positive as well (and following your argument even more buying opportunities occuring)

 

What do I miss?

 

@Hamburg Investor, sorry, my previous post was unclear.  My reference point was where Fairfax's investment portfolio was sitting a week ago (before the war in Iran started).

• Feb 27: Fairfax's equity portfolio was up ~$1.3B
• Mar 5 (a week later): the portfolio is up ~$338M
• Decline since start of the war: the portfolio is down ~$950M. 

The drivers of the decline were Greek (Eurobank) and Indian stocks (Thomas Cook India) emerging markets (CIB) and currencies (primarily the Euro). 

 

It should be pointed out that compared to Dec 31, 2025, the portfolio is still up a solid $338M. 

 

Should Trump decide to end the war, my guess is the portfolio will pop higher. I really like how Fairfax is positioned. And I like the individual companies.

 

Bottom line, this is a good reminder that my short term updates of Fairfax's portfolio should be taken with a strong dose of scepticism (when they move significantly in both directions).  

 

 

Fairfax Mar 5 2026.xlsx

Edited March 5 by Viking