Ballinvarosig Investors Posted January 5 Posted January 5 On 12/19/2025 at 3:48 PM, hasilp89 said: DOM:L - After nibbling on the australian business bottom out and having it bounce 50% from the lows i feel a little stupid not allocating more there than here. and now i'm kind of just sitting around here waiting. I know its a good business but there are a number of headwinds and forced errors by recently departed CEO to factor in. At these prices i wouldn't be surprised if PE is looking, or at least they should be. I really like Domino's Pizza (UK) as well.
Pellom Posted January 5 Posted January 5 I don't know if it's going to happen this year, but I think GIL is an $80 stock. 20%-ish to go.
Longnose Posted January 5 Posted January 5 I've been digging into VRT -- Vertiv Holdings Co. They are an essential backbone for cooling these ai data centers. 10$ Billion Dollar backlog and growing. Strong ROIC at 22%. And i dont think everything AI is fully priced in here.
treasurehunt Posted January 6 Posted January 6 Here's a spreadsheet tracking the board's 2026 picks: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nwP_YENUvs_OkKGJHpzMpjclNnY7EigWlaSp7kvkcqw/edit?usp=sharing Fairfax, Nintendo, Constellation and Coupang are popular picks. There are several more picked by at least two people. Security # Of Picks Alphabet Inc Class A 2 Amazon.com Inc 2 Comcast Corp 2 Domino's Pizza Group PLC 2 Liquidia Corp 2 Safran SA 2 Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc 2 Visa Inc 2 Cash 2 Adobe Inc 3 Brown & Brown Inc 3 Crocs Inc 3 MercadoLibre Inc 3 MGM Resorts International 3 PayPal Holdings Inc 3 Zoetis Inc 3 Coupang Inc 5 Constellation Software Inc. 6 Nintendo ADR 7 Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd 7
KPO Posted January 6 Posted January 6 4 minutes ago, treasurehunt said: Here's a spreadsheet tracking the board's 2026 picks: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nwP_YENUvs_OkKGJHpzMpjclNnY7EigWlaSp7kvkcqw/edit?usp=sharing Fairfax, Nintendo, Constellation and Coupang are popular picks. There are several more picked by at least two people. Security # Of Picks Alphabet Inc Class A 2 Amazon.com Inc 2 Comcast Corp 2 Domino's Pizza Group PLC 2 Liquidia Corp 2 Safran SA 2 Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc 2 Visa Inc 2 Cash 2 Adobe Inc 3 Brown & Brown Inc 3 Crocs Inc 3 MercadoLibre Inc 3 MGM Resorts International 3 PayPal Holdings Inc 3 Zoetis Inc 3 Coupang Inc 5 Constellation Software Inc. 6 Nintendo ADR 7 Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd 7 Does cash include TLT? There’s more to this one than just the yield. It has tremendous leverage to lower rates. Just look at where it was a few years ago.
treasurehunt Posted January 6 Posted January 6 Just now, KPO said: Does cash include TLT? There’s more to this one than just the yield. It has tremendous leverage to lower rates. Just look at where it was a few years ago. No, I have your TLT pick in there. I'm using the TLT ticker to track it. At the end of the year, I assume I'll have to add the dividends paid to get the total return. Am I missing something?
KPO Posted January 6 Posted January 6 5 minutes ago, treasurehunt said: No, I have your TLT pick in there. I'm using the TLT ticker to track it. At the end of the year, I assume I'll have to add the dividends paid to get the total return. Am I missing something? Nope. You pretty much got it. Love the accountability aspect of what you’re doing here. Thanks!
UK Posted January 6 Posted January 6 (edited) 6 hours ago, treasurehunt said: Here's a spreadsheet tracking the board's 2026 picks: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nwP_YENUvs_OkKGJHpzMpjclNnY7EigWlaSp7kvkcqw/edit?usp=sharing Fairfax, Nintendo, Constellation and Coupang are popular picks. There are several more picked by at least two people. Security # Of Picks Alphabet Inc Class A 2 Amazon.com Inc 2 Comcast Corp 2 Domino's Pizza Group PLC 2 Liquidia Corp 2 Safran SA 2 Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc 2 Visa Inc 2 Cash 2 Adobe Inc 3 Brown & Brown Inc 3 Crocs Inc 3 MercadoLibre Inc 3 MGM Resorts International 3 PayPal Holdings Inc 3 Zoetis Inc 3 Coupang Inc 5 Constellation Software Inc. 6 Nintendo ADR 7 Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd 7 Thanks! Since it is not on the list, I would also add NOVO, not that it is the biggest conviction idea, but it is the only one new larger for 2026+ for me (and FFH already tops the list anyway:)). Edited January 6 by UK
giulio Posted January 6 Posted January 6 FIH, EVO, UMG. URL is a canadian small cap which should see some of its private holdings go public (uplifting the value of its minority stakes) + a recent acquisition should provide a boost to their fcf, probably not in 2026 but surely in the next 2-3 years.
formthirteen Posted January 6 Posted January 6 (edited) Inspired by @bargainman's post in the 2025 thread, I created a script that compiles PDFs with the "EPS and FCF to price" graphs for all the best ideas from the 2026 thread. Here are the reports, EPS-to-price and FCF-to-price, for anyone interested: cobaf-2026-eps-to-price.pdfcobaf-2026-fcf-to-price.pdf Edited January 6 by formthirteen
ValueNation Posted January 7 Posted January 7 I think Aecon (ARE.TO) should still be on this list for 2026. While construction companies are always risky, the thesis remains intact even after the recent run up over $30: The LSTK overhang is almost done with, sentiment is shifting Backlog is at a record $10BN with revenues projected to be $5.4BN in 2025, $6BN in 2026 Margins should be improving with more nuclear projects dominating the project mix and get closer to 7-8% rather than 4-6% When settlements from Eglinton/Finch lines are announced, there should be a big bump with ability to ramp up share buybacks Longer term there is still a great outlook given track record in nuclear and with many SMR / nuclear projects needed for data center energy demand, meaning this is also an AI/energy infrastructure play Still only trading at less than 0.5 EV/2026 sales, 6x projected EBITA, much lower multiples than peers If there is a delay announced or settlements aren't as large as expected (guesstimating $300M or so), then could be a pullback from here, but substantial completion of both the Eglinton and Finch lines have already been announced, and Finch is already operational.
Valuebo Posted January 7 Posted January 7 On 12/27/2025 at 9:53 AM, Spekulatius said: $BRO, $CPNG and $GTLB are my pics for outperforming in 2026.. Well I owned some BRO and lots of CPNG already, might as well make it 3 out of 3. Put in my vote for GTLB as well.
djokovic1 Posted January 7 Posted January 7 (edited) These for me for 2026: SFT.L (Software circle), Teqnion, NGTG (Japan) and Topicus. Mostly look at Serial Acquirers. Edited January 7 by djokovic1
Masterofnone Posted January 7 Posted January 7 It is always very risky to invest in a "story", but I find the setup in SKYH to be attractive. The very rich are a wonderful, stable, less price sensitive market. The company seems to have funding sources outside of issuing underpriced equity. There is a large short interest predicated upon an equity issuance. Expenditures are front loaded and revenues ongoing. IF the story unfolds this is a snowball. Inverting, perhaps the permitting process is not a large barrier to entry or they run into a funding crunch. As GFP stated, value bros won't pay up but shorts eventually have to.
formthirteen Posted January 7 Posted January 7 On 1/4/2026 at 12:29 AM, hardcorevalue said: Software has been left for dead. Software multiples are at "generational lows" (~4.2x forward revenue vs. 17x peak in 2021):
Santayana Posted January 7 Posted January 7 On 1/6/2026 at 12:33 AM, formthirteen said: Inspired by @bargainman's post in the 2025 thread, I created a script that compiles PDFs with the "EPS and FCF to price" graphs for all the best ideas from the 2026 thread. Here are the reports, EPS-to-price and FCF-to-price, for anyone interested: Thank you!
Longnose Posted January 7 Posted January 7 I think the Software is dead narrative is an area where ive been looking for my bigger opportunities of 2026. Software is far from dead and its evolving but some of the big players are bit beaten down while performance is still strong. Like ADBE. I think why all the capital is chasing returns on the AI fomo there will be some disconnects in real value on some of the big players that are driving real value.
nsx5200 Posted January 8 Posted January 8 4 hours ago, formthirteen said: Software multiples are at "generational lows" (~4.2x forward revenue vs. 17x peak in 2021): Thanks for that. If you don't another pair of eyes looking at that, do you have the source to that info so I can go dig at it a bit? I have questions on what qualifies as "software" vs others (ai, service, etc), and how they quantify "generational lows". TIA.
bargainman Posted January 8 Posted January 8 On 1/6/2026 at 12:33 AM, formthirteen said: Inspired by @bargainman's post in the 2025 thread, I created a script that compiles PDFs with the "EPS and FCF to price" graphs for all the best ideas from the 2026 thread. Here are the reports, EPS-to-price and FCF-to-price, for anyone interested: cobaf-2026-eps-to-price.pdf 4.3 MB · 48 downloads cobaf-2026-fcf-to-price.pdf 6.38 MB · 34 downloads Nice. I'd suggest you add some prompting like I did in my latest post to the 2025 thread to tell it to give you more stock price data points vs the 4 earnings points per year. Otherwise it misses a lot of stock price data points.
formthirteen Posted January 8 Posted January 8 13 hours ago, nsx5200 said: If you don't another pair of eyes looking at that, do you have the source to that info so I can go dig at it a bit? I have questions on what qualifies as "software" vs others (ai, service, etc), and how they quantify "generational lows". TIA. Yes, the more eyes, the better. It was a quote from Brad Gerstner: "AI is the death of software" sounds pretty bullish to me. We just have to find the 10% that will survive according to Gerstner? Let us know your findings. 13 hours ago, bargainman said: Nice. I'd suggest you add some prompting like I did in my latest post to the 2025 thread to tell it to give you more stock price data points vs the 4 earnings points per year. Otherwise it misses a lot of stock price data points. cobaf-2026-revenue.pdfcobaf-2026-eps.pdfcobaf-2026-pe-band.pdfcobaf-2026-margin.pdf I updated the report and ran some other reports that I attached above. These are some of my favorite software stocks from the "best ideas 2026" list after looking at my charts: ZS, CRM, FTNT, PANW, ADBE, CPRT, PINS, RDDT, DOM.L, TOI.V, FOUR, UBER, CSU.TO The future of the business is not visible in the charts. CSU.TO has incredibly stable margins and revenue growth, which I didn't expect before looking at the charts. Also the state of ADBE's business is a lot better than sentiment (stable margins, revenue growth accelerated). PYPL's business (gross margins) is worse than the bull consensus on twitter. NVO clearly has issues and bad management, valuation compensates for past mistakes, but perhaps not for future ones. CHTR and CMCSA look interesting if they can survive. Lots of good picks by the board.
Rainier Posted January 8 Posted January 8 11 minutes ago, formthirteen said: Yes, the more eyes, the better. It was a quote from Brad Gerstner: "AI is the death of software" sounds pretty bullish to me. We just have to find the 10% that will survive according to Gerstner? Let us know your findings. cobaf-2026-revenue.pdf 3.12 MB · 1 download cobaf-2026-eps.pdf 3.53 MB · 0 downloads cobaf-2026-pe-band.pdf 2.94 MB · 0 downloads cobaf-2026-margin.pdf 2.6 MB · 0 downloads I updated the report and ran some other reports that I attached above. These are some of my favorite software stocks from the "best ideas 2026" list after looking at my charts: ZS, CRM, FTNT, PANW, ADBE, CPRT, PINS, RDDT, DOM.L, TOI.V, FOUR, UBER, CSU.TO The future of the business is not visible in the charts. CSU.TO has incredibly stable margins and revenue growth, which I didn't expect before looking at the charts. Also the state of ADBE's business is a lot better than sentiment (stable margins, revenue growth accelerated). PYPL's business (gross margins) is worse than the bull consensus on twitter. NVO clearly has issues and bad management, valuation compensates for past mistakes, but perhaps not for future ones. CHTR and CMCSA look interesting if they can survive. Lots of good picks by the board. Thanks for these graphs, very useful. How do you get the time series stock price and financial data for the graphs.
formthirteen Posted January 8 Posted January 8 16 minutes ago, Rainier said: How do you get the time series stock price and financial data for the graphs. Yahoo and QuickFS.
UK Posted January 8 Posted January 8 3 hours ago, formthirteen said: Yes, the more eyes, the better. It was a quote from Brad Gerstner: "AI is the death of software" sounds pretty bullish to me. We just have to find the 10% that will survive according to Gerstner? Let us know your findings. cobaf-2026-revenue.pdf 3.12 MB · 11 downloads cobaf-2026-eps.pdf 3.53 MB · 4 downloads cobaf-2026-pe-band.pdf 2.94 MB · 4 downloads cobaf-2026-margin.pdf 2.6 MB · 5 downloads I updated the report and ran some other reports that I attached above. These are some of my favorite software stocks from the "best ideas 2026" list after looking at my charts: ZS, CRM, FTNT, PANW, ADBE, CPRT, PINS, RDDT, DOM.L, TOI.V, FOUR, UBER, CSU.TO The future of the business is not visible in the charts. CSU.TO has incredibly stable margins and revenue growth, which I didn't expect before looking at the charts. Also the state of ADBE's business is a lot better than sentiment (stable margins, revenue growth accelerated). PYPL's business (gross margins) is worse than the bull consensus on twitter. NVO clearly has issues and bad management, valuation compensates for past mistakes, but perhaps not for future ones. CHTR and CMCSA look interesting if they can survive. Lots of good picks by the board. This is awesome, thank you very much!
Eldad Posted January 8 Posted January 8 (edited) CNBC is where all the narrative trades and storytelling get pumped and told so compellingly to the herd. “10% will survive” is a start. I predict in 6 months it will be “software has a lot longer runway than we thought” Edited January 8 by Eldad
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