Tariff - aftermath

[whatstheofficerproblem]

My livelihood for the next 4 years depends on the markets going upside, ballistically so. C'mon Trump, stop this madness and make the markets go up. Why does it have to be this way when it's finally my turn to suck onto some of that 2/20 money?

 

[changegonnacome]

Its quite funny to watch - and listen I feel bad for old Captain Chaos...his instincts on a subset of this trade stuff is exactly right....the execution is what you'd expect from an 80yr old guy who's surrounded himself with a bunch of C-players at best....some would argue Z-players......'Ron Vara' anyone?

 

So far its a masterclass in poor choices and chaos. From the Liberation Day math debacle itself which out the gates marked this out as an exercise with little credibility (the figures we're so outlandish they screamed puffery & bluffing to counterparties!)......to the use of obscure interpretations of IEEPA that we're almost sure to get knocked back in the courts. It's really an example how it isn't the deep state this time getting in the way of Trump's agenda but rather the orange man in the mirror.

 

Its quite sometime since a President has held this much sway over the GOP caucus. It was a strategic mistake not to bring bring at least some semblance of GOP congressional support into a trade war most especially with China (which is what matters the most here).

 

Let's be clear a President of democratic country with rule of law acting unilaterally (when he really can't) is like bringing a knife to a gun fight against an authoritarian dictatorship across the table - it's no surprise that he's getting the runaround from two authoritarian socialist/communist dictators right now......Putin & Xi. They have little of the complex stakeholder enviorment a democratic has to deal with.

 

His mistake was not to consolidate as much congressional consensus as was politically possible before firing the first bullet of this trade war against China......going it alone & acting unilaterally only confirmed the puffery & bluffery inherent in liberation day. China masterfully ran down the clock, did a Geneva chinwag knowing full well I'm sure the US court decisions blocking his moves we're coming....and if that didn't come SME constituents of senators and congressman would start to feel the China pain and start lobbying for relief shattering the consensus he never built anyway,

 

The recent Steve Eisman podcasts which are worth a listen....has a Lenin quote I heard years ago but I think is very interesting in the context of the trade war & even Russia/Ukraine conflict.

 

“The Capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them.”

― Vladimir Ilich Lenin

 

Trump.....in his own words....."doesn't have the cards"......the same insanity that sees Congress year after year vote the US closer to a debt spiral (because short term pain is unacceptable to their constituents).......is the same Congress that when push comes to shove will not allow Trump the negotiating latitude to do what he needs to do against China. 

 

I said it from the get go - Trump's radicalism - his everything, all at once re-industrialization gambit - was too ambitious, too broad.......his vein glory in trying to get this done during his Presidency - has doomed it to failure.....a more wise President would have seen it as an 8 or 12yr project that JD would have carried through to completion. Trump of course couldn't countenance someone else doing a victory lap and not him and as a result he's made a dogs dinner of what is, in essence, a good idea.

 

 

Edited May 30, 2025 by changegonnacome

[Malmqky]

Just now, whatstheofficerproblem said:

...2/20 money?

 Seriously though, don't hate the player, hate the game. Congrats on the hire. Wish you a long and fulfilling career

 

I would like to see tariffs on luxury type goods (VAT) and would be fine with well thought out 10% tariffs used sparingly, for example to prevent BYD from flooding the US market (although these would be higher than 10%).

 

Wish a scalpel was used more here but I'll play the game if we want to throw around triple digits.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

2 minutes ago, Malmqky said:

 Seriously though, don't hate the player, hate the game. Congrats on the hire. Wish you a long and fulfilling career

 

 

Hahaha, Thank you! the game made a lot of people rich, and some even good investors. I think learning to construct a L/S book is an essential skill these days. LPs have stopped valuing the long only approach.

 

On your other comments, while I don't have an opinion on the type of goods, what I do know is that Trump is punishing other countries for China. This whole thing was to get to China is my thinking. If they concede and settle, we'll likely be past tariffs. But alas, neither China nor Trump wants to backdown.

 

Hopefully, he will Chicken out when the pressure starts building, but the markets will be in the gutter until then.

[Spekulatius]

I think Trump punishes every country that can’t hit back . It’s quite simple.

He really owned Bangladesh and Laos.

[Spekulatius]

17 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

Its quite funny to watch - and listen I feel bad for old Captain Chaos...his instincts on a subset of this trade stuff is exactly right....the execution is what you'd expect from an 80yr old guy who's surrounded himself with a bunch of C-players at best....some would argue Z-players......'Ron Vara' anyone?

I forgot who said this but Trump is the wrong answer to the right questions. I think this is very true.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

21 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I think Trump punishes every country that can’t hit back . It’s quite simple.

 

 

Strong against the weak and weak against the strong. This works fine and this has always been the US' approach even without Trump in the equation. The only problem is, Trump's mental capacity to distinguish between strong and weak is blurred by his ego.

 

Way to go, a reported called out TACO today, last thing you need is to remind him he's gonna chicken out. It's like when you're about to do a chore and someone reminds you again that you have to do it and suddenly you don't feel like doing it anymore. The amygdala response, we'll have to put up with it for now unfortunately.

Edited May 30, 2025 by whatstheofficerproblem

[Gregmal]

13 minutes ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

Way to go, a reported called out TACO today, last thing you need is to remind him he's gonna chicken out. It's like when you're about to do a chore and someone reminds you again that you have to do it and suddenly you don't feel like doing it anymore. The amygdala response, we'll have to put up with it for now unfortunately.

That’s why these buffoons are so dumb. Not only did they totally fall for his antics(contrary to how now they all apparently knew he was bluffing lol)….but now they act like backing down was a bad move(even though they begged for it in the beginning) so his obvious response is to go be an asshole tough guy again which isn’t exactly going to be productive. 
 

Either way, still think he s got til July/August or so to play games. Then the numbers need to inflect or risk losing power next year at midterms. 
 

And it is kinda a shame because if he didn’t pull the tariff bs, it seemed firmly possible that with the pro business agenda and tax cuts we d be off and running with a new roaring 20s.

Edited May 30, 2025 by Gregmal

[changegonnacome]

23 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I forgot who said this but Trump is the wrong answer to the right questions. I think this is very true.

 

Yep nice way to put it - I'll give him some credit as I try to do in this discussions......he has a way of changing the conversation and shifting the overton window in DC......we saw that from his first term......IMO his real positive historical legacy is that he'll be remembered as the President that rightly rang the alarm bell on China back in the late 2010's...but exactly as per the above....he's a sometimes good idea guy but all buffoon when it comes to execution. It's a pity as I've said in other threads I'd like to see parts of his agenda enacted. 

[changegonnacome]

17 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

That’s why these buffoons are so dumb. Not only did they totally fall for his antics(contrary to how now they all apparently knew he was bluffing lol)

 

Luckily this buffon.....was able to spot another buffon in full flight......and I've got the receipts to prove it...

 

 

APRIL 9TH - "Anyway IMO the next dumb Trump thing you can make money on is the inevitable China reversal - the administration might talk about trade asymmetry between the US-China and how it will hurt them more than the US.....but what they wont talk about is something a little more unquantifiable and that's pain tolerance......like we know the story.... the Chinese are over there working 9-9-6 &  are saving I dunno 35% of their income.....these people know how to defer gratification & take some lumps....state surveillance & propaganda rammed down their throats will sure help keep the business community and society in-line through some bumps..........conversely Joe Sixpack has a negative savings rate of minus 2%, does 1.5hrs of real work a day for the three days a week he's in the office and spends the rest of the time complaining about how busy work is. Who's gonna crack first do you think when the going gets tough and inevitable job loses start rolling in on both sides?"

 

 

April 10th

 

"Read this and a few other stories from American SME's with single sourcing from China....its brutal whats going to happen to them.......if something cant continue it wont.

 

A China pause is simply inevitable.......I'm starting to get positioned for it."

 

 

 

[Gregmal]

^^Yup. You seem largely immune to the TDS brainrot and have been pretty spot on throughout. Same with my man @Mephistopheles. Folks could learn a thing or two. Only thing that matters in the market is how do I need to be positioned to capitalize on the setup in front of me. When Trump gets injected to the equation, it gets even easier because such a high % of the market gets emotionally stunted and starts drooling and making tard noises. 

Edited May 30, 2025 by Gregmal

[mattee2264]

Totally agree that tariffs has become the new fixation in much the same way as people used to obsess over inflation prints and Fed dot plots and forward guidance.

 

It is like COVID. As soon as people figured that the worst case outcomes were off the table the market recovered albeit with some pullbacks along the way but never got close to revisiting the lows.

 

 

[DooDiligence]

It's a distraction from the crime spree going on.

It's also a tool that enables the crime spree that's going on.

[Parsad]

16 hours ago, dealraker said:

A bit of TACO-trading update given the awfulizations being published as to how much of a dumbass us negative on the TACO man are.  As mentioned on Trump election day ole deal quickly went 100% cash on the bump up in the little retirement account I've profiled here on COBF twice.  A quick review would reveal that $30k contribution thingy ending in 1994 was $1.25 mil 2 1/2 years ago then $1.64 mil in the late summer of 2023 when it went to 3 defense stocks (GD, LHX, RTX) and WTW.  Those were sold on the election bump with quite the short term gains.  Bought WTW back in the tax acct world and it ain't done much.

 

As mentioned here on COBF I went 100% Meta in the ret acct, missing the bottom by a long shot, buying 3 times (average price $507, on the liberation days.  Regardless, have a $548,000 profit in that endeavor and said retirement account is now hovering in the $2.5 mil arena with 4k shares of Meta.  Like my following of Trump, been obsessed with Zuck since the FB IPO...but a different obsession - one of admiration of his focus, willpower, and crazy intensity on jamming his business down everyone's throat...a wonderful enterprise as far as $ making.

 

Never Meta guy I love more than the TACO-man!   Wells is showing I'm an 18% annual man since 2011 in this ret account.  Parsad.......I'm coming for your 19% annual stardom!  LOL, I could not be more silly.  But TACO is TACO, and there is more to come to be sure.  We are going to see some gapping downs, count on it.  Having some cash?  Oh yeah...oh yea!  

 

Gunna bail on this latest Meta buy, have way too much Meta these days a bit annoyed I didn't sell a couple of weeks ago.  But like my interest in Trump, a psychological one of observing unique fail-to-win, I've been obsessed with Zuck and his focus and willpower since the IPO...and the fact that his business is at least to me one of the 5 most dominant one I've ever followed.  Oh how long will it last?  The question with all of them, particularly my insurance brokers!

 

 

 

 

 

Nice Dealraker!  Although I think you have me beat already, as my 19% annualized was excluding PDH.  I'm working on that!

 

META is still not expensive.  I wouldn't hold 100%, but it isn't overvalued either.  If you can reduce it without paying too much tax, you might want to manage that risk, but on a forward earnings basis, it's at fair value.

 

Cheers!

[Parsad]

14 hours ago, DooDiligence said:

 

Leon would be Rosco P. Coltrane.

 

 

 

 

LOL!  I think Vance is more suited to being Rosco.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

13 hours ago, DooDiligence said:

Boss Hogg say's it's TACO TIME MF'ERS!!!

 

 

 

You know, as many of us benefit from this, the border towns on the Canada/US border are just getting creamed!  These poor people...traffic is down 50% pre-Trump/tariffs.  Many of them have a few restaurants, retailers, grocers...they rely on Canadian consumers.  Just getting hammered and many don't know how long they can hold on. 

 

Point Roberts, a weird peninsula surrounded by water on three sides and the U.S. border on the fourth, is close to being decimated by a lack of Canadian/Vancouver consumers.  They have one grocery store, and the owner has take on tremendous debt since the Pandemic to keep serving the small U.S. community, but no one gives two shits.  Once their one grocery store closes down, they will have to cross the border to buy what they need.  

 

Really sad situation for a lot of people caught in the middle!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

8 hours ago, dwy000 said:

Hes the President of the country.  When he's done as President he will be a distant memory. Unlike Biden for you. 

 

I think Biden will be a distant memory as well.  The pardons and hiding the dementia (probably the cancer as well) and supporting an idiot son like Hunter...I feel sorry for Biden, but him and Lady Macbeth will be forgotten in history.  

 

But Obama...yeah, he is stuck not only in the MAGA heads, but Trump's head too!  Trump wishes he was Obama...other than Michelle...Trump knows Obama could pull even better than Melania!  Cheers!

[changegonnacome]

The aftermath - facts not feelings....thought this was the pro-business Taco, sorry I mean President?

 

https://insight.factset.com/analysts-making-larger-cuts-than-average-to-eps-estimates-for-sp-500-companies-for-q2-1?utm_source=Direct&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=FO-05-30-2025&utm_content=httpsinsightfactsetcomanalystsmakinglargercutsthanaveragetoepsestimatesforsp500companiesforq21

 

Analysts Making Larger Cuts Than Average to EPS Estimates for S&P 500 Companies for Q2

Earnings

By John Butters  |  May 30, 2025

 

Given concerns in the market about inflation and tariffs, have analysts lowered EPS estimates more than normal for S&P 500 companies for the second quarter?

 

The answer is yes. During the months of April and May, analysts lowered EPS estimates by a larger margin than average. The Q2 bottom-up EPS estimate (which is an aggregation of the median EPS estimates for Q2 for all the companies in the index) decreased by 4.0% (to $62.91 from $65.55) from March 31 to May 29.

 

In a typical quarter, analysts usually reduce earnings estimates during the first two months of a quarter. During the past five years (20 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first two months of a quarter has been 2.6%. During the past ten years, (40 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first two months of a quarter has been 2.5%. During the past fifteen years, (60 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first two months of a quarter has also been 2.5%. During the past 20 years (80 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first two months of a quarter has been 3.1%.

 

Thus, the decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate recorded during the first two months of the second quarter was larger than the 5-year average, the 10-year average, the 15-year average, and the 20-year average.

[Parsad]

TACO, TACO man...I want to be a TACO man...TACO, TACO man...I want to be a TACO!

 

Wow, this thing has taken off like crazy.  If you Google "Trump as taco man", you get more photos than if you typed in "Sydney Sweeney"!

 

Cheers!

 

[John Hjorth]

4 hours ago, Parsad said:

You know, as many of us benefit from this, the border towns on the Canada/US border are just getting creamed!  These poor people...traffic is down 50% pre-Trump/tariffs.  Many of them have a few restaurants, retailers, grocers...they rely on Canadian consumers.  Just getting hammered and many don't know how long they can hold on. 

 

Point Roberts, a weird peninsula surrounded by water on three sides and the U.S. border on the fourth, is close to being decimated by a lack of Canadian/Vancouver consumers.  They have one grocery store, and the owner has take on tremendous debt since the Pandemic to keep serving the small U.S. community, but no one gives two shits.  Once their one grocery store closes down, they will have to cross the border to buy what they need.  

 

Really sad situation for a lot of people caught in the middle!  Cheers!

 

Thank you for sharing, Sanjeev [ @Parsad ],

 

What a sad and a bit weird story about Point Roberts to read. I had to fire up Google Earth to understand what you wrote. The issue with Canadian-Americans board line is just so weird, ref. Wikipedias page on Point Roberts :

 

Quote

... The acceptance of the 49th parallel as the international boundary was concluded without precise knowledge of its effects. Later, as the Boundary Commission surveyed the line, the British government realized the peninsula of Point Roberts would be an isolated part of the United States. The British Foreign Office instructed Captain James Prevost, the British Boundary Commissioner, to inform his U.S. counterpart of the situation and request Point Roberts be left to Britain, because of the great inconvenience it would be to the United States. If the American Boundary Commission was reluctant, Prevost was instructed to offer "some equivalent compensation by a slight alteration of the Line of Boundary on the Mainland". It is not known how the U.S. commissioner responded, but Point Roberts remained part of the United States.[11] ...

 

[dealraker]

7 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

Nice Dealraker!  Although I think you have me beat already, as my 19% annualized was excluding PDH.  I'm working on that!

 

META is still not expensive.  I wouldn't hold 100%, but it isn't overvalued either.  If you can reduce it without paying too much tax, you might want to manage that risk, but on a forward earnings basis, it's at fair value.

 

Cheers!

As of Friday I have cash only in the retirement account.   Off my mind is the thing, I really-really do want to be in some cash.

 

Not sure if it was this or the political thread but I agree that in some respects Elon may be the smartest.  But Elon's reported use of Katamine, the amount he takes along with all the other drugs, is a near guarantee he will lose either his liver or his kidneys, or both, at a fairly young age.  I guess with his money replacements are guaranteed, but oh what an enjoyable experience that's going to be.  

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, dealraker said:

As of Friday I have cash only in the retirement account.   Off my mind is the thing, I really-really do want to be in some cash.

 

Not sure if it was this or the political thread but I agree that in some respects Elon may be the smartest.  But Elon's reported use of Katamine, the amount he takes along with all the other drugs, is a near guarantee he will lose either his liver or his kidneys, or both, at a fairly young age.  I guess with his money replacements are guaranteed, but oh what an enjoyable experience that's going to be.  

Awesome trades. I agree on Elon, my wife mentioned to me that he looks like the drug addicts that get submitted to clinic for dialysis. His skin tone looks bad too. If he or somebody in his circle doesn’t intervene, he may not make it until 60 without spare parts.

 

I think Trump is a gift to traders. For LTB&H not so much. Tariffs will go back and forth but I think the ending game is going to be tariffs, it’s just a question on how much.

Edited May 31, 2025 by Spekulatius

[John Hjorth]

33 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Awesome trades. I agree on Elon, my wife mentioned to me that he looks like the drug addicts that get submitted to clinic for dialysis. His skin tone looks bad too. If he or somebody in his circle doesn’t intervene, he may not make it until 60 without spare parts.

 

I think Trump is a gift to traders. For LTB&H not so much.

 

Yeah, @Spekulatius,

 

He may be severely overworked, too, on top of all the other things.

 

The price to pay for all that is in life deferred, it's not for free in any way to do so. One day, one wake up, and it becomes evident, that care for body and mind is needed, to last longer, because invincibility doesen't last in the long run.

 

YouTube : I Am Invincible! ~ Boris Grishenko (GOLDENEYE) 1995

 

[Perhaps I should add that 1 million bucks in hard currency is not enough today, because of 30 inflationary years!]

 

 

Edited May 31, 2025 by John Hjorth

[dealraker]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Awesome trades. I agree on Elon, my wife mentioned to me that he looks like the drug addicts that get submitted to clinic for dialysis. His skin tone looks bad too. If he or somebody in his circle doesn’t intervene, he may not make it until 60 without spare parts.

 

I think Trump is a gift to traders. For LTB&H not so much. Tariffs will go back and forth but I think the ending game is going to be tariffs, it’s just a question on how much.

As per a couple of people's suggestions to me and about me the moving more into the present has been refreshing.  It wasn't so much that I didn't appreciate the way others invest, it was more that I simply didn't think I was capable to do it without an awful outcome.  I've tempered that worry, I realize now it is a small decision and not meaningful at all.  Thus now for me it is much more relevant and fun to participate in something like this forum.  I've bought several stocks now without the intention to hold them for years.  

 

We had a guy relatively wealthy locally, a big man and ex pro football player, who was off-the-charts intelligent in an engineering type manner.  He was also endlessly in need of recognition, his homes and parties legendary.  His issue was simply drinking.  Like Elon he fathered a ton of children and kept up his vigorous work and social lifestyle.  He was fully aware of his liver decline and had a replacement procedure planned.  But something happened, some said it was his refusal to alter his lifestyle one bit for anything at any time, and he just laid down a few weeks and died at 51.

[DooDiligence]

9 hours ago, Parsad said:

TACO, TACO man...I want to be a TACO man...TACO, TACO man...I want to be a TACO!

 

Wow, this thing has taken off like crazy.  If you Google "Trump as taco man", you get more photos than if you typed in "Sydney Sweeney"!

 

Cheers!

 

 

BREAKING NEWS: The president has released his official analysis to support the tariff strategy and its benefits.

 

Presidential Tariff Strategy.pdf