American companies that will benefit from tariffs?

[changegonnacome]

Captain Chaos strikes again

 

How quaint it will be to look back at this NHTSA document on the foreign content in various car models....and see a single column that has "US/Canada" written in it....cause Canada wasn't considered a foreign place up until very recently.

 

https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/2024-10/MY2025-AALA-Alphabetical-10.30.24.pdf

 

The best a car manufacturer seems to be able to do is show 70% of vehicle coming from "US/Canada"....so of those 70% vehicles I guess the Q is how much is Canadian sourced?....I'm gonna guess best case maybe 10%......so lets says the most American car you can buy today on the market is 60% US sourced!.......40% coming from overseas.....lets call it a $50k ASP......40% of 50k....is $20k....stick 25% on top.....gets $25k.....$5k federal sales tax. Ouch.

 

So you know even the most American car you can buy right now is going up 10% in the near future or by $5k (rough).....your BMW M3 Sedan at 0% American content....is going to da moon.

 

 

[DooDiligence]

Personally, I believe the intent is to tank our and the worlds economy, create social unrest and then...

[Spooky]

7 hours ago, Charlie said:

I bought a great used car some days ago for a very good price.  

So if someone need a good car in the next years, 

now could be the time to buy!!!

 

Congrats! I also bought a truck at the start of the year and glad I did. Toyota Tundra!

 

[Charlie]

Don´t forget to buy your Porsches and Ferraris as fast as possible. 

Edited March 28, 2025 by Charlie

[Spekulatius]

So far, I can only come up with steel and perhaps WOR who benefit. The problem with steel, Al is that those industries require little jobs, but the users of those materials pay more, get into competitive disadvantage (especially if they export)  and employ magnitudes more people, and the result is likely a net loss in employment.

[changegonnacome]

It struck me - the USA is having its BREXIT moment….if you want to see what the future looks like….the buyers remorse is quite profound in the UK as the public finances there deteriorate YoY.

 

To the topic at hand - I can’t think of many industries that benefited in the UK….the isolationist zeal there led to some uptick in domestic tourism…but over time this didn’t mean much as domestic tourists were less wealthy and so spent less and there was downward shift in international tourists (slightly).
 

Right now maybe DG is a marginally better business with the Temu loophole closed. I’d also expect SNAP payments to increase as unemployment rises which should be good for DG as a SNAP beneficiary. 

[Vish_ram]

Glad I bought my Lexus GX few weeks ago. Assembled in Japan. 
very few Lexuses are made in US. Good for used car prices.

[gfp]

10 minutes ago, Vish_ram said:

Glad I bought my Lexus GX few weeks ago. Assembled in Japan. 
very few Lexuses are made in US. Good for used car prices.

 

new GX550?  I'm kind of bummed because I planned my next car to be lx700h overtrail but I want to buy a used one in a few years and now there won't be any supply.  supply was already going to be thin.  I aint paying $115k for a toyota truck

[Grenville]

16 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/2024-10/MY2025-AALA-Alphabetical-10.30.24.pdf

 

 

This is awesome! Thanks for sharing the document. 

[Charlie]

31 minutes ago, gfp said:

new GX550?  I'm kind of bummed because I planned my next car to be lx700h overtrail but I want to buy a used one in a few years and now there won't be any supply.  supply was already going to be thin.  I aint paying $115k for a toyota truck

It seems that Trump is not making anything great, but scarce and expensive. 

[rogermunibond]

UMich Consumer Sentiment Index shows unity among Dems, independent, and Repubs.

 

All groups now expecting higher inflation in the next 5-10 years

[DooDiligence]

8 minutes ago, Charlie said:

It seems that Trump is not making anything great, but scarce and expensive. 

If only there had been some signs.

[Spekulatius]

3 minutes ago, rogermunibond said:

UMich Consumer Sentiment Index shows unity among Dems, independent, and Repubs.

 

All groups now expecting higher inflation in the next 5-10 years

If you are expecting it usually will come.

 

16 minutes ago, Charlie said:

It seems that Trump is not making anything great, but scarce and expensive. 

This is the short term pain that everyone was looking forward to.

 

Now Trump warns Auto makers not to raise prices. Maybe we need to ration them cars?

[changegonnacome]

52 minutes ago, gfp said:

I'm kind of bummed because I planned my next car to be lx700h overtrail but I want to buy a used one in a few years and now there won't be any supply.

 

Do you feel liberated yet? Don't worry if not - full liberation day is coming April 2nd  

[changegonnacome]

1 minute ago, Spekulatius said:

Now Trump warns Auto makers not to raise prices. Maybe we need to ration them cars?

 

I saw that and laughed.....companies who at the very best can produce a car that is maybe 60% in-sourced in the USA and who operate on single digit margins....tells them to not raise prices.....while putting a 25% tariff on half the value of the car. The math dont math.

 

Last I checked Republican principles I subscribed too are in the trash- I thought they we're for small government?......everywhere I look the Government is now involved in the car I buy to the Mexican vine ripened tomatoes I'm buying for dinner.  I also thought that the government shouldn't pick winners and losers.......shielding your domestic companies from overseas competition makes them inefficient while delivering crappier products per dollar to your citizens. 

[Spekulatius]

It will create quite a bit of work for manufacturers to account for all those tariffs in their supply chain so the tariff calculation for a car is correct, based on country of origin and what part it is.

Also the customs service or whoever does the calculation and audits will have their hands full and probably need to be expanded.

 

 

People forget this about free trade, it not just get rid of tariffs but also makes trade easier, lowering the actual costs of doing business.

 

The USA is a huge market , so creating a trade Island is actually possible for many product unlike the UK.

 

On the other hand, the tariff and trade barriers seem much higher than what the UK actually incurred.

 

I do think the retaliation will most likely taget US service exports where the US has a large trade surplus ( that is often neglected when trade balances are discussed). That’s could hit tech companies.

Edited March 28, 2025 by Spekulatius

[rogermunibond]

A lot of US tech companies make use of Irish tax loopholes.

 

These revenues get counted in Irish GDP iirc

 

They book no US tax obligation from these sales.

[Grenville]

honestly at some point, what if the automakers just don't collect the tariff and remit it...ain't like these folks follow the rules...i mean you make things so complicated, there isn't anyone competent in this govt to calculate any of it...

 

it's like the tax code, just make it so convoluted, like you need an army to police the details...but wait doge got rid of everyone...

[Grenville]

I think at some point folks realize there isn't any consequences to skirting the rules, instead you actually get rewarded enter Trevor Milton and company...

[Vish_ram]

2 hours ago, gfp said:

 

new GX550?  I'm kind of bummed because I planned my next car to be lx700h overtrail but I want to buy a used one in a few years and now there won't be any supply.  supply was already going to be thin.  I aint paying $115k for a toyota truck

brand new. For a while I had wanted Land Cruiser. GX is upscale version of LC. This can run for 300k miles. 
 

there’s a 3-4 mo waiting in US for GX, sold at MSRP. I put deposit for nori green then texted him saying I’m ok for 3 other colors. Lucky to get nebula grey (Premium +). 

LX new goes above 120k. Front dashboard looks ugly (twin screen). Not designed well. 

 

Replaced my Tesla Y (shipped it to my son as it depreciated crazy). Just love GX. Amazing ride.

[gfp]

7 minutes ago, Vish_ram said:

brand new. For a while I had wanted Land Cruiser. GX is upscale version of LC. This can run for 300k miles. 
 

there’s a 3-4 mo waiting in US for GX, sold at MSRP. I put deposit for nori green then texted him saying I’m ok for 3 other colors. Lucky to get nebula grey (Premium +). 

LX new goes above 120k. Front dashboard looks ugly (twin screen). Not designed well. 

 

Replaced my Tesla Y (shipped it to my son as it depreciated crazy). Just love GX. Amazing ride.

 

Well I agree with some of that but "this can run for 300k miles" is a total guess!  We have no experience with the longevity of these new turbo engines.  Hope for the best.

 

I drive a 2013 200 series land cruiser.  The lx700h is the only vehicle currently tempting me to make a change.  Nori green overtrail trim would be fine by me.

 

Congrats on the new GX - I think that is a much better vehicle than the land cruiser prado 250 series with the 4cyl.

 

Was it around $66k?

[Spekulatius]

I bought added a bit $GPC based on the thesis that car repair shops and car parts retailer will do well. I know there are more pure plays out there but $AZO is too expensive (and ran already) and $AAP too iffy and crappy.

 

I had already a bit of $GPC and decided to add a bit today when the stock is down but should be up (imo).

Edited March 28, 2025 by Spekulatius

[DooDiligence]

19 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I bought added a bit $GPC based on the thesis that car repair shops and car parts retailer will do well. I know there are more pure plays out there but $AZO is too expensive (and ran already) and $AAP too iffy and crappy.

 

I had already a bit of $GPC and decided to add a bit today when the stock is down but should be up (imo).

 

Great business. IIRC mostly franchisee owned stores + Motion Industries.

This is one that I sold a long time ago and should have kept.

[Vish_ram]

3 hours ago, gfp said:

 

Well I agree with some of that but "this can run for 300k miles" is a total guess!  We have no experience with the longevity of these new turbo engines.  Hope for the best.

 

I drive a 2013 200 series land cruiser.  The lx700h is the only vehicle currently tempting me to make a change.  Nori green overtrail trim would be fine by me.

 

Congrats on the new GX - I think that is a much better vehicle than the land cruiser prado 250 series with the 4cyl.

 

Was it around $66k?

74k plus tax

[changegonnacome]

3 hours ago, rogermunibond said:

A lot of US tech companies make use of Irish tax loopholes.

 

These revenues get counted in Irish GDP iirc

 

They book no US tax obligation from these sales.

 

@Spekulatius is right....and some of the European's already have small 2-3% DST's on the books filtered by revenue which only ensnares the US tech giants.......one could see these DST's going much much higher.....they would be hugely tax generative for France/Germany etc.....and the beauty (perhaps) of putting a tariff on a really high margin, almost zero marginal cost product like digital services....is its much more likely the producer will take a large margin hit to maintain market share.......a low margin producer (like a car maker) has no choice on what he/she has to do.

 

Re: Ireland/Luxembourg/Holland and US multinationals.....the loopholes are now gone......there is a 15% global corporate tax minimum for tech giants now in Europe......incl Ireland......now lots of European profits get booked in these jurisdictions like Ireland as the European HQ's are there....these HQ's house large pan-European tech and inside sales teams and at some point in the past the Irish subsidiary bought the international IP rights from the parent company.....these digital services (like Google Adwords) are sold into France etc. The DST's we're an attempt by the French (& others) to more closely align profits with domestic end markets.....versus the usual where was the 'value' created model (in this case at the European HQ).

 

Anyway so US tech/services subsidiaries already pay now pretty much full bore corporate tax in the European Union (lots of it) but alot less if they are in low tax places like Luxemburg, Ireland....the minimum being 15%....but the reality still stands......on an individual country basis or at the European Union level.....the tools are there to squeeze Google, META, Apple etc.

 

 

Edited March 28, 2025 by changegonnacome