American companies that will benefit from tariffs?

[flesh]

Unfortunately I don’t have any good ideas here. thinking about usa steel co’s for the first time, maybe ever. Steel being part of a long term onshoring trend. The usa doesn’t want to depend too much on others for critical resources anymore? If this and similar ideas are enduring certainly there’s some opportunity here. 
 

How long will the tariffs last? How much operating leverage is involved and for which companies? 

[SharperDingaan]

The smarter thing is sell off today, park in cash for 2 months or so, then buy back your positions at a much lower price.

 

Mass US unemployment, big jumps in the daily cost of just about everything, and big reductons in Q1 international sales ... doing the talking for you. 

 

SD

 

 

[cwericb]

This could be interesting:

 

"Ontario will impose a 25 per cent tariff on power it sends to 1.5 million homes in Minnesota, Michigan and New York in response to fresh United States levies, Premier Doug Ford announced Tuesday."

 

“If these tariffs persist, if the Trump administration follows through on any more tariffs, we will immediately apply a 25 per cent surcharge on the electricity we export,” Ford told reporters at the provincial legislature. “We will not hesitate to shut off their power as well.”

Edited Tuesday at 07:33 PM by cwericb

[DooDiligence]

56 minutes ago, cwericb said:

This could be interesting:

 

"Ontario will impose a 25 per cent tariff on power it sends to 1.5 million homes in Minnesota, Michigan and New York in response to fresh United States levies, Premier Doug Ford announced Tuesday."

 

“If these tariffs persist, if the Trump administration follows through on any more tariffs, we will immediately apply a 25 per cent surcharge on the electricity we export,” Ford told reporters at the provincial legislature. “We will not hesitate to shut off their power as well.”

 

The Thai's recently did just that (shut off the power) for areas just across the border into Myanmar. They did it for different reasons. They said there's a lot of online grifters who are operating in these areas and they cut off the power and the flow of gasoline. Obviously a conflation of unrelated events, but...

 

https://apnews.com/article/thailand-myanmar-scam-electricity-cut-0cfdfb57aa2e05e5835b1af3b4ac8e1a 

Edited Tuesday at 08:15 PM by DooDiligence

[Spooky]

55 minutes ago, cwericb said:

This could be interesting:

 

"Ontario will impose a 25 per cent tariff on power it sends to 1.5 million homes in Minnesota, Michigan and New York in response to fresh United States levies, Premier Doug Ford announced Tuesday."

 

“If these tariffs persist, if the Trump administration follows through on any more tariffs, we will immediately apply a 25 per cent surcharge on the electricity we export,” Ford told reporters at the provincial legislature. “We will not hesitate to shut off their power as well.”

 

I might be talking out of my ass but Ontario is a province and they don't have legal authority to impose tarrifs.

[DooDiligence]

2 minutes ago, Spooky said:

 

I might be talking out of my ass but Ontario is a province and they don't have legal authority to impose tarrifs.

 

I know I'm talking out of my ass, but legal schmegle, does that even matter any more?

[Spooky]

Just now, DooDiligence said:

 

I know I'm talking out of my ass, but legal schmegle, does that even matter any more?

 

Haha. Good point. It still does in Canada!

[Red Lion]

3 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

The smarter thing is sell off today, park in cash for 2 months or so, then buy back your positions at a much lower price.

 

Mass US unemployment, big jumps in the daily cost of just about everything, and big reductons in Q1 international sales ... doing the talking for you. 

 

SD

 

 

I can see selling off the portfolio and buying back in. Markets are headed down and things are overvalued anyways, probably as good a shot as any at timing a downturn like this. 
 

But I think massive unemployment in the USA is a pipe dream, do yiu mean in Canada? We already have a labor shortage. 
 

Tariffs may be a short term bluff, but significant deportations seem far more likely, and the flow of migrants (low end workforce) has already slowed to a standstill. 
 

Then we have a great wave of retirements beginning, and an upcoming younger Covid generation that is working far less than previous generations.

 

 

[Mephistopheles]

Welp. Looks like they’re rescinding the tariffs on Mexico and Canada tomorrow, per Lutnick the commerce secretary.

[Spooky]

[DooDiligence]

They can't make me pick tomatoes.

[SharperDingaan]

Within 6 weeks most of the US auto sector will be laid off. Agriculture and industry will also be laying off in a big way as there is way too much capacity for the now smaller market. And many will not be able to claim benefits, or receive them ... cause Elon fired those who make it happen. The laid off also aren't going to do the work illegals did, or for the same pay; so expect to pay a lot more for what you get.

 

Six weeks in, even if Trump suddenly lifted tariffs as a 'bad idea', most nations would be intentionally slow in removing them. The US just isn't trusted, and it's a lot better to simply keep up the pain. Schoolyard bully's don't change until they experience fear, and the bullied need a win. Expect rough play as par for the course.

 

SD

 

 

 

 

Edited Tuesday at 11:02 PM by SharperDingaan

[SharperDingaan]

2 hours ago, Spooky said:

 

I might be talking out of my ass but Ontario is a province and they don't have legal authority to impose tarrifs.

 

We just call it a surcharge. Pay up the additional 25% or freeze in the dark. Your choice ☺ 

 

SD

 

[Eng12345]

2 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

Within 6 weeks most of the US auto sector will be laid off. Agriculture and industry will also be laying off in a big way as there is way too much capacity for the now smaller market. And many will not be able to claim benefits, or receive them ... cause Elon fired those who make it happen. The laid off also aren't going to do the work illegals did, or for the same pay; so expect to pay a lot more for what you get.

 

Six weeks in, even if Trump suddenly lifted tariffs as a 'bad idea, most nations would be intentionally slow in removing them. The US just isn't trusted, and it's a lot better to simply keep up the pain. Schoolyard bully's don't change until they experience fear, and the bullied need a win. Expect rough play as par for the course.

 

SD

 

I agree with most of what you're saying, but unemployment is claimed at the state level. 

[Spooky]

1 minute ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

We just call it a surcharge. Pay up the additional 25% or freeze in the dark. Your choice ☺ 

 

SD

 

 

As an Ontarian I hope we don't go this way. Cutting off power will just hurt people.

[SharperDingaan]

2 minutes ago, Eng12345 said:

I agree with most of what you're saying, but unemployment is claimed at the state level. 

 

It only needs 2-3 states to fail, and panic will do the rest. Social media is a bitch, and even Elon will not be able to prevent a viral spread.

 

SD

 

[Red Lion]

@SharperDingaan What sort of employment numbers are you expecting, and by when? I might be interested in a friendly wager. 

[SharperDingaan]

4 hours ago, Red Lion said:

@SharperDingaan What sort of employment numbers are you expecting, and by when? I might be interested in a friendly wager. 

 

No bets on misery thanks. It's one thing to passively prosper off of adverse volatility via a long straddle ... but prospering by hitting some minimum level.of mass unemployment by time X is just wrong.

 

SD

 

 

 

[Red Lion]

1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

No bets on misery thanks. It's one thing to passively prosper off of adverse volatility via a long straddle ... but prospering by hitting some minimum level.of mass unemployment by time X is just wrong.

 

SD

 

 

 

I respect that, fair enough. Hopefully things resolve in a less severe downturn than you predict. That's my view. 

[DooDiligence]

10 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

No bets on misery thanks. It's one thing to passively prosper off of adverse volatility via a long straddle ... but prospering by hitting some minimum level.of mass unemployment by time X is just wrong.

 

SD

 

 

 

 

I love your account 

[Kizion]

Came across a name today - Orion SA - when reading through earnings calls I noticed they referred to tariffs as being positive for their business. As also locally (in US) manufacturing of tyres. Will have to look more into the name myself, but thought I could already share it here. 

 

[lnofeisone]

19 hours ago, Spooky said:

 

I might be talking out of my ass but Ontario is a province and they don't have legal authority to impose tarrifs.

This is one of those things journalists didn't do a good job at. Ontario doesn't have the legal authority to impose tariffs, but they have the legal authority to put a surcharge on exports. The effect is the same. Bloomberg does a good job discerning this nuance in the article but not in the link header.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-04/ontario-to-impose-tariffs-on-power-to-three-us-states-wsj-says?embedded-checkout=true