Macro thread - Why is the market up/down?

[brobro777]

Nicotine didn't tank baby

 

PM another record high haha

[Ghost]

5 hours ago, ArminvanBuyout said:

Actually though, why did everything tank today?

3rd Friday of the month...OPEX...is my guess. 

[Paarslaars]

5 hours ago, gfp said:

Ask dealraker how his insurance brokerages and berkshire stock fared - probably wasn't too rough of a day!

BRK was ok, FFH down 2%.

[rogermunibond]

Interview with Neil Dutta on macro.  Sees Fed cutting in June.  Housing slowing, payroll slowing, state/local govt spending down.  

 

 

[rogermunibond]

Atlanta GDPNow has Q1 growth at -1.5%

 

 

[gfp]

2 minutes ago, rogermunibond said:

Atlanta GDPNow has Q1 growth at -1.5%

 

 

 

 

Pretty large adjustment for 2 data points ->

 

" the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.41 percentage points to -3.70 percentage points while the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth fell from 2.3 percent to 1.3 percent."

[rogermunibond]

Sizeable shifts in Consumer spend and net exports

 

There are only six subcomponents.  Maybe the size of net exports decline is overestimated.

Edited February 28 by rogermunibond

[rogermunibond]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-proceed-with-planned-april-oil-output-hike-sources-say-2025-03-03/

 

OPEC+ approved an April production hike - gradual reversal of the 2.2 Mbd production curtailment.  There's really no need for US domestic production to increase.

[Spooky]

Markets not too happy about the tariffs going into effect. VIX over 25. Wonder if the administration will reverse course.

[Paarslaars]

Of course, this is just setting the stage for negotiations. He does not want to be the president that is bad for the market.

[Spooky]

15 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

Of course, this is just setting the stage for negotiations. He does not want to be the president that is bad for the market.

 

I hope you are right. CAD up slightly today, currency traders betting the tariffs will be temporary.

[Fly]

2 hours ago, Spooky said:

Markets not too happy about the tariffs going into effect. VIX over 25. Wonder if the administration will reverse course.

 

All part of the plan to incite a recession (firing tons of govt workers helps) and force Powell to cut rates quickly? Or is that too much tin foil in my hat?

[Gregmal]

4 minutes ago, Fly said:

 

All part of the plan to incite a recession (firing tons of govt workers helps) and force Powell to cut rates quickly? Or is that too much tin foil in my hat?

Probably more merit to it than not 

Edited Tuesday at 07:29 PM by Gregmal

[flesh]

1 minute ago, Gregmal said:

Probably more merit to it than not 

Trump will control the fed. He can adjust tariffs to induce fed changes in rates. Get bargains to some degree in the meantime. 10t govt debt rolls over this year iirc. Some tariffs stick to some degree for strategic reasons some adjust downwards over time. Increases o shoring if critical infrastructure.. 3% of 10t is 300b a year saved pays for tax cuts ish .. Americans not poorerish after tax.. 

 

50 yr bonds at 3% then begin pivoting? 
 

Thinking this for a month or so.. coming together. 

[rogermunibond]

the 30 year yield is not going sub 3% without a huge economic shock  

[Gregmal]

5 minutes ago, rogermunibond said:

the 30 year yield is not going sub 3% without a huge economic shock  

Under 3 might never happen again. Would require like an 1.1-1.3% 10 year. Under 5.5 gets things done. 

[rogermunibond]

https://www.ft.com/content/cd33d571-f558-4a89-83fb-2ffa271ea2df

 

US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick has said that all goods compliant with the sweeping 2020 trade deal with Canada and Mexico will probably be granted a one-month reprieve from tariffs, in a major expansion of a planned carve-out for car imports.

The policy shift comes a day after US President Donald Trump said that carmakers compliant with United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement would be granted a one-month reprieve from the 25 per cent tariffs his administration imposed on America’s two biggest trading partners earlier this week.
 

[Spekulatius]

I think the Trump put is not something to bet on this time. I think Trump had bigger plans than during his first administration.

 

Think Neo imperialism - expanding the US borders and make Greenland and US territory, Get Panama Canal back and his bust on Mt Rushmore etc. Maybe even pry a wedge into Canada (Alberta). Peace Nobel price for making “peace” in Ukraine and The Gaza Strip becomes a Las Vegas clone. I feel there  is “grander” vision going on here and it’s probably not stuff people voted for.

 

The tariff are just a form of economic warfare and fits in the Neo imperialist framework.

 

I think the equity markets taking a dump here is something that he cares way less about than during his first term. So, I think we might be in for quite some action on the downside when market participants figure out that Trump doesn’t give a damn if the market shits a brick. Bessent pretty much spelled it out that the next 6-12 month won’t be great.

Edited Friday at 12:35 AM by Spekulatius

[dealraker]

12 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I think the Trump put is not something to bet on this time. I think Trump had bigger plans than during his first administration.

 

Think Neo imperialism - expanding the US borders and make Greenland and US territory, Get Panama Canal back and his bust on Mt Rushmore etc. Maybe even pry a wedge into Canada (Alberta). Peace Nobel price for making “peace” in Ukraine and The Gaza Strip becomes a Las Vegas clone. I feel there  is “grander” vision going on here and it’s probably not stuff people voted for.

 

The tariff are just a form of economic warfare and fits in the Neo imperialist framework.

 

I think the equity markets taking a dump here is something that he cares way less about than during his first term. So, I think we might be in for quite some action on the downside when market participants figure out that Trump doesn’t give a damn if the market shits a brick. Bessent pretty much spelled it out that the next 6-12 month won’t be great.

Trump is the least skilled businessman I have ever followed and I've followed him for nearly 60 years, his net worth gain has trailed inflation by leaps and bounds..  He is the most successful failed businessman at gaining and keeping an obsessive amount of media attention, and he also exceeds even better at disruption and creating endless conflict.  He has never been good at expense control, he loves to spend-spend and spend some more.

 

His extraordinary skill is gaining a loyal following and it is clearly the endless grievance and blame outlay that is so incredibly attractive to so many.   And I think his ability to burn things down and crawl out with a paycheck for himself is something a lot of people find immensely attractive, the rebel without a cause in a world full of those who just love this type persona, particularly those that haven't been successful themselves and feel the world has held them down unfairly.

 

I think Trump will get down to a 30% approval rating but he'll transmit enough fear in his political circle to maintain "fall in line."   Two things I'm thinking that most will find silly, but there again in 2018 I was considered a lunatic by stating Trump would not accept the 2020 election results.  If Trump is healthy, 2028 will not be a normal election for the US, count on it.  Second, don't trust the Treasury bond of the US particularly the longer bonds with higher rates.  Restructuring the long bond would give Trump an incredible amount of spending power, maybe enough to convince US citizens to allow him to stay in power past 2028.

 

When thinking Trump think spend- massive spend, not save or budget.  Trump has never-never been fiscally responsible with anything in his life.  Think wealth transfer from the lower and middle class to the rich.  Trump persuades his bunch that he is taking eggs from others baskets and placing those eggs in his believers basket.  Lyndon had it correct saying, "Give a man someone to look down on and he will empty his pockets for you."

 

Howard Luknick coming on CNBC and screaming at the top of his lungs with the standard anger/smile that Trump will "balance the budget" within his term is simply the proof that many Americans are the easiest low hanging fruit to pick.  This guy knows the real story, but he'll sell what sells. 

 

 

Edited Friday at 01:00 PM by dealraker

[juno323]

1 hour ago, dealraker said:

Trump is the least skilled businessman I have ever followed and I've followed him for nearly 60 years, his net worth gain has trailed inflation by leaps and bounds..  He is the most successful failed businessman at gaining and keeping an obsessive amount of media attention, and he also exceeds even better at disruption and creating endless conflict.  He has never been good at expense control, he loves to spend-spend and spend some more.

 

His extraordinary skill is gaining a loyal following and it is clearly the endless grievance and blame outlay that is so incredibly attractive to so many.   And I think his ability to burn things down and crawl out with a paycheck for himself is something a lot of people find immensely attractive, the rebel without a cause in a world full of those who just love this type persona, particularly those that haven't been successful themselves and feel the world has held them down unfairly.

 

I think Trump will get down to a 30% approval rating but he'll transmit enough fear in his political circle to maintain "fall in line."   Two things I'm thinking that most will find silly, but there again in 2018 I was considered a lunatic by stating Trump would not accept the 2020 election results.  If Trump is healthy, 2028 will not be a normal election for the US, count on it.  Second, don't trust the Treasury bond of the US particularly the longer bonds with higher rates.  Restructuring the long bond would give Trump an incredible amount of spending power, maybe enough to convince US citizens to allow him to stay in power past 2028.

 

When thinking Trump think spend- massive spend, not save or budget.  Trump has never-never been fiscally responsible with anything in his life.  Think wealth transfer from the lower and middle class to the rich.  Trump persuades his bunch that he is taking eggs from others baskets and placing those eggs in his believers basket.  Lyndon had it correct saying, "Give a man someone to look down on and he will empty his pockets for you."

 

Howard Luknick coming on CNBC and screaming at the top of his lungs with the standard anger/smile that Trump will "balance the budget" within his term is simply the proof that many Americans are the easiest low hanging fruit to pick.  This guy knows the real story, but he'll sell what sells. 

 

 

Not a fan of "The Donald" but calling him the least skilled businessman you've followed in the last 60 years might say more about your bias then anything else.

Financially, he's done pretty well for himself.

Edited Friday at 01:47 PM by juno323

[cwericb]

52 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Trump is the least skilled businessman I have ever followed and I've followed him for nearly 60 years, his net worth gain has trailed inflation by leaps and bounds..  He is the most successful failed businessman at gaining and keeping an obsessive amount of media attention, and he also exceeds even better at disruption and creating endless conflict.  He has never been good at expense control, he loves to spend-spend and spend some more.

 

His extraordinary skill is gaining a loyal following and it is clearly the endless grievance and blame outlay that is so incredibly attractive to so many.   And I think his ability to burn things down and crawl out with a paycheck for himself is something a lot of people find immensely attractive, the rebel without a cause in a world full of those who just love this type persona, particularly those that haven't been successful themselves and feel the world has held them down unfairly.

 

I think Trump will get down to a 30% approval rating but he'll transmit enough fear in his political circle to maintain "fall in line."   Two things I'm thinking that most will find silly, but there again in 2018 I was considered a lunatic by stating Trump would not accept the 2020 election results.  If Trump is healthy, 2028 will not be a normal election for the US, count on it.  Second, don't trust the Treasury bond of the US particularly the longer bonds with higher rates.  Restructuring the long bond would give Trump an incredible amount of spending power, maybe enough to convince US citizens to allow him to stay in power past 2028.

 

When thinking Trump think spend- massive spend, not save or budget.  Trump has never-never been fiscally responsible with anything in his life.  Think wealth transfer from the lower and middle class to the rich.  Trump persuades his bunch that he is taking eggs from others baskets and placing those eggs in his believers basket.  Lyndon had it correct saying, "Give a man someone to look down on and he will empty his pockets for you."

 

Howard Luknick coming on CNBC and screaming at the top of his lungs with the standard anger/smile that Trump will "balance the budget" within his term is simply the proof that many Americans are the easiest low hanging fruit to pick.  This guy knows the real story, but he'll sell what sells. 

 

 

 

 

Now THIS should be required reading for every member of CBoF. 

 

This is not rocket science and should be obvious to anyone with half a clue. But unfortunately those members who have been sucked into the Trump cult are probably beyond reach as are most of those borderline Trump supporters that are still thinking that Trump has some wonderful plan that is all going to unfold soon. They hope.

 

Trump is a danger to the USA and the rest of the world. The man is a Narcissistic Sociopathic Meglamaniac and anyone with even a smattering of knowledge of psychology, or even plain common sense should know this.

[rogermunibond]

Folks this is a non-political board so let's keep the discussion civil.

 

WSJ board hates tariffs as everyone knows.  IIRC there is a bill being introduced to challenge the "State of emergency"

 

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-tariffs-emergency-power-ieepa-trade-mexico-canada-33e2739a

Edited Friday at 01:51 PM by rogermunibond

[cwericb]

2 minutes ago, juno323 said:

Not a fan of "The Donald" but calling him the least skilled businessman you've followed in the last 60 years might say more about your bias then anything else.

Financially, he's done pretty well for himself.

 

Are you talking about the guy who went bankrupt 6 or 7 times? I know a lot of rich people who have never even been near a bankruptcy. 

And by the way, any idiot who was given $700 million in NY real estate back in the '70s/80s would be rich today. 

[rogermunibond]

Pay attention to what Bessent says.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/07/treasury-secretary-bessent-says-economy-could-be-starting-to-roll-a-little-bit.html

 

PS doesn't he look a bit like Homelander from the Boys.  freaky

[Gregmal]

23 minutes ago, rogermunibond said:

Folks this is a non-political board so let's keep the discussion civil.

 

WSJ board hates tariffs as everyone knows.  IIRC there is a bill being introduced to challenge the "State of emergency"

 

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-tariffs-emergency-power-ieepa-trade-mexico-canada-33e2739a

Yup. Im not for bans, but one side does it, you get the boot. The other side does it "lets change the rules and allow it".