Fairfax 2025

[Hsmpanl]

44 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

FFH cancelled 152k shares in August 2025 which is more in August than in the last three years combined.

 

Those were repurchased in the month of August for cancellation right? Super encouraging that Prem still sees value despite the run up year-to-date.

[Viking]

6 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

FFH cancelled 152k shares in August 2025 which is more in August than in the last three years combined.

 

@SafetyinNumbers, is there a way to tell if this is perhaps a partial unwind of the FFH-TRS position (like they did in Q4)? Fairfax’s stock is up about 20% YTD in 2025. Makes sense to use some of the proceeds from the increase in the FFH-TRS to also slowly shrink the size of the FFH-TRS position each year. This allows them to have their cake and eat it too.

Edited September 11, 2025 by Viking

[SafetyinNumbers]

4 hours ago, Viking said:

@SafetyinNumbers, is there a way to tell if this is perhaps a partial unwind of the FFH-TRS position (like they did in Q4)? Fairfax’s stock is up about 20% YTD in 2025. Makes sense to use some of the proceeds from the increase in the FFH-TRS to also slowly shrink the size of the FFH-TRS position each year. This allows them to have their cake and eat it too.

It seems to be regular buybacks and not an unwinding of the TRS. Last year when they unwound some of the TRS, it was done as a block trade which makes sense because price really doesn’t matter and the counterparty owns the shares. I suspect we’ll see another block trade at some point in December which will be TRS related.

[SafetyinNumbers]

10 hours ago, Hsmpanl said:

Those were repurchased in the month of August for cancellation right? Super encouraging that Prem still sees value despite the run up year-to-date.

Correct. The value seems pretty clear. The surprise to me is that they bought so much during hurricane season although with slower premium growth there is more excess capital for buybacks. Hopefully we’ll also see them take in the Allied World minority in the next 3-6 months.

[backtothebeach]

At June 30, 2025 there were 21,591,832 common shares effectively outstanding. At this pace 20 million shares is on the horizon.

[Hamburg Investor]

55 minutes ago, backtothebeach said:

At June 30, 2025 there were 21,591,832 common shares effectively outstanding. At this pace 20 million shares is on the horizon.

At the pace of August, I hold the very last FFH share 12 years down the road.  

[MMM20]

29 minutes ago, Hamburg Investor said:

At the pace of August, I hold the very last FFH share 12 years down the road.  

 

I'll sell you the second to last share for $50K in 2037

[Viking]

5 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

It seems to be regular buybacks and not an unwinding of the TRS. Last year when they unwound some of the TRS, it was done as a block trade which makes sense because price really doesn’t matter and the counterparty owns the shares. I suspect we’ll see another block trade at some point in December which will be TRS related.

+1. Thanks. 

[Hsmpanl]

5 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

Correct. The value seems pretty clear. The surprise to me is that they bought so much during hurricane season although with slower premium growth there is more excess capital for buybacks. Hopefully we’ll also see them take in the Allied World minority in the next 3-6 months.

Curious, is anyone else still a regular buyer at these prices? Or do you all have a full allocation and are letting Prem buyback on your behalf? I have new money needing to be invested every month and am finding myself anchored to prior prices and P/B ratios.

[SafetyinNumbers]

2 minutes ago, Hsmpanl said:

Curious, is anyone else still a regular buyer at these prices? Or do you all have a full allocation and are letting Prem buyback on your behalf? I have new money needing to be invested every month and am finding myself anchored to prior prices and P/B ratios.

I bought a few shares at $2340 a few weeks ago. It’s still over 50% as a percentage of net assets but I couldn’t help myself. It’s been a big mindset change for me to add at higher prices but the longer I own it, the better I understand the business and how cheap it is on an absolute and relative basis.

[gfp]

6 minutes ago, Hsmpanl said:

Curious, is anyone else still a regular buyer at these prices? Or do you all have a full allocation and are letting Prem buyback on your behalf? I have new money needing to be invested every month and am finding myself anchored to prior prices and P/B ratios.

 

I had an order in the other day to buy some FRFHF at $1699 usd and it never executed - checked the low of the day and it was $1699.42 that day.  Oh well

[Hoodlum]

3 minutes ago, Hsmpanl said:

Curious, is anyone else still a regular buyer at these prices? Or do you all have a full allocation and are letting Prem buyback on your behalf? I have new money needing to be invested every month and am finding myself anchored to prior prices and P/B ratios.

I am still buying in my RRSP when I have added funds.  I am now done adding to the RRSP for this year but will reinvest the dividends in January unless the share price really takes off.  

[villainx]

25 minutes ago, Hsmpanl said:

Curious, is anyone else still a regular buyer at these prices?

 

Added small amount.  Have room to make position larger, but trying to wait for good price.  But willing to do a little at low 1700s for US shares.

[MMM20]

42 minutes ago, Hsmpanl said:

Curious, is anyone else still a regular buyer at these prices? Or do you all have a full allocation and are letting Prem buyback on your behalf? I have new money needing to be invested every month and am finding myself anchored to prior prices and P/B ratios.

 

I might be one of the few sellers (I've cut it in half over the past few months), but that's more about other ideas and it's probably diworsification that I'll end up regretting. Fairfax is still my biggest position.

 

 

Edited September 11, 2025 by MMM20

[Masterofnone]

Small add. Larger order at $1680 USD has not been filled.

[villainx]

14 minutes ago, MMM20 said:

that's more about other ideas and probably diworsification I'll end up regretting.

 

I'm in same boat.  Curiosity keeps getting the better of me.  Many smaller positions when concentration would have been (hindsight) better.

 

 

[MMM20]

14 minutes ago, villainx said:

I'm in same boat.  Curiosity keeps getting the better of me.  Many smaller positions when concentration would have been (hindsight) better.

it’s a constant tension between get rich vs stay rich and conviction vs epistemic humility. I’m good at ~10-12% but for others that’s way too big or way too small to matter. 
 

Edited September 11, 2025 by MMM20

[Santayana]

1 hour ago, Hsmpanl said:

Curious, is anyone else still a regular buyer at these prices? Or do you all have a full allocation and are letting Prem buyback on your behalf? I have new money needing to be invested every month and am finding myself anchored to prior prices and P/B ratios.

At a 50%+ position size it's really hard to buy more, but I always end up buying a few shares on any $50 or so pullback and then selling on the next bounce for a little extra beer money.  In an IRA so no tax issues.

[Junior R]

it will be interesting in couple years when outstanding shares is under 19/18/17/16m

[Thrifty3000]

9 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

Correct. The value seems pretty clear. The surprise to me is that they bought so much during hurricane season although with slower premium growth there is more excess capital for buybacks. Hopefully we’ll also see them take in the Allied World minority in the next 3-6 months.

If you’re confident Mr. Market’s selling your stock for a bargain today, then you gotta buy today. No telling how much more manic Mr. M will be after hurricane season.

Edited September 11, 2025 by Thrifty3000

[Crip1]

4 hours ago, Hsmpanl said:

Curious, is anyone else still a regular buyer at these prices? Or do you all have a full allocation and are letting Prem buyback on your behalf? I have new money needing to be invested every month and am finding myself anchored to prior prices and P/B ratios.

Currently FFH is over 30% of the total, and when FFHI (7+%) and Eurobank (just under 4%) my Fairfax-total is close to 42%. Not looking to sell any of this, but I think I have enough for now (until something drops for no good reason). 

 

-Crip

[SafetyinNumbers]

45 minutes ago, Thrifty3000 said:

If you’re confident Mr. Market’s selling your stock for a bargain today, then you gotta buy today. No telling how much more manic Mr. M will be after hurricane season.

I probably don’t have to use leverage too but I am. 

[Viking]

I would be interested to learn how other board members are valuing Fairfax’s stock today. 
 

It looks like Fairfax paid about US$1,700 for the shares they bought back in August. So let’s use that as our ‘price’. My guess is BV today is about US$1,200. That puts the trailing P/BV at 1.4. That is cheap. Especially for a company consistently delivering an average ROE in the high teens. 
 

But what about excess of FV over CV? That is about $100/share (after tax). That puts ‘adjusted’ BV at US$1,300. That puts the trailing P/BV at 1.3x BV. That is very cheap. 
 

What about if we use expected BV at Dec 31, 2026. Let’s look ahead 16 months. My guess is ‘adjusted’ BV will be about $1,520. That puts the 1-year forward P/BV at 1.1 x. Well that is crazy cheap. 
 

Importantly, the intrinsic value of Fairfax shares is much higher than my ‘adjusted’ BV estimates used above, providing a nice margin of safety. And Fairfax’s management team is best-in-class - looks like we are getting this for free.

 

My guess is Fairfax can do basic math. And that likely explains why they are still buying back stock at a pretty good clip at US$1,700/ share. But I can also understand why looking a year into the future is too complicated for most ‘investors’ - 12 months is a freaking eternity!

 

PS: We could also do a similar analysis using PE (my guess is economic earnings for Fairfax will come in around US$220/share in 2025). It says pretty much the same thing. Which probably tells us something…

Edited September 11, 2025 by Viking

[KFRCanuk]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/carney-major-projects-list-1.7630470

 

Quote

 

The first five projects include:

• Phase two of LNG Canada in Kitimat, B.C., doubling its production of liquefied natural gas.
• The Darlington New Nuclear Project in Clarington, Ont., which will make small modular reactors.
• Contrecoeur Terminal Container Project to expand the Port of Montreal.
• The McIlvenna Bay Foran Copper Mine Project in Saskatchewan. 
• The expansion of the Red Chris Mine in northwestern B.C.

"Combined, these five projects will generate more than $60 billion for the Canadian economy and create tens of  thousands of high-paying careers for our workers," Carney said. "These five projects are just the beginning."

 

 

[Maverick47]

2 hours ago, Viking said:

PS: We could also do a similar analysis using PE (my guess is economic earnings for Fairfax will come in around US$220/share in 2025). It says pretty much the same thing. Which probably tells us something…

I bought some more for a relative’s retirement account at a bit under $1720 a share some days ago.  My brother-in-law had some cash sitting in his account and asked me what I thought a fair value for Fairfax would be.  I did a quick back of the envelope calculation and told him based on the quality of earnings of the company, I’d be willing to pay a minimum of 12 times normalized earnings (probably worth more, but I don’t want to push the multiple too much).  Without a lot of sophisticated analysis or pulling a calculator or spreadsheet out, I told him $2350 a share would be a reasonable price today in my opinion.  He was fine with adding to it at current prices.  
 

Over 70% of my own retirement account is in the stock currently, and as I begin to sell part of those assets to produce annual income in retirement, I find I’m selling other names (including Berkshire) rather than Fairfax to do so.

 

Edited September 11, 2025 by Maverick47