Fairfax 2025

[Junior R]

Blackberry hits another 52 week high what if 2025 / 2026 is the year of BB

[TwoCitiesCapital]

At this point - are largely in insignificant position - especially with the reduced/eliminated convertible exposure...

 

Would love to see them exit and redeploy, but its not likely to move the needle. 

[MMM20]

On 1/5/2025 at 12:06 PM, Hamburg Investor said:

Why do you think 50% being reasonable this year?

 

On 1/6/2025 at 2:28 AM, Txvestor said:

Short term predictions are inherently fraught with risk.

Yeah to be clear I wasn’t making a one year prediction which is a fools errand. I think about it like ~50% expected return with maybe a -50% to +100% ~95% confidence interval (and a pretty flat distribution). Does that make sense? +50% return would be ~15-20% per share earnings yield and growth and the rest driven by rerating to a more reasonable multiple IMHO. Of course maybe theres a ~1% chance we hit 50% on the dot and then I’ll make sure to toot my own horn a year from now
 

Edited 23 hours ago by MMM20

[Junior R]

On 1/3/2025 at 1:36 PM, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Same. 

 

With Bitcoin's performance this year, I've actually been able to modestly add to my position where I had been forced to trim in prior years to keep at ~10%. That was definitely an issue after Fairfax's blockbuster 2022 when everything else I owned was dropping as it rose. 

 

 

few more buyers in Dec couple shares lol..I wonder what is up with these insiders buying only few shares

 

 

Edited 21 hours ago by Junior R

[KFRCanuk]

18 minutes ago, Junior R said:

 

 

few more buyers in Dec couple shares lol..I wonder what is up with these insiders buying only few shares

 

 

 

To me, this seems like a corporate stock purchase plan via payrol deduction but what do I know though.

Edited 21 hours ago by KFRCanuk

[Junior R]

Just now, KFRCanuk said:

 

To me, this seems like a corporate stock purchase plan via payrol deduction.

 

What do I know though.

Those would be flagged 30 - Acquisition under a purchase/owership plan vs 10 - acquisition in the public market

[TwoCitiesCapital]

3 hours ago, Junior R said:

Those would be flagged 30 - Acquisition under a purchase/owership plan vs 10 - acquisition in the public market

 

That and they would all occur the same day at the same price. Different prices and Bradstreet's occurring on a different day make you wonder. This is beer money for all of those guys. What gives? 

[gfp]

It is probably something like this:

"

We continue to encourage all our employees to be owners of our company through our employee share ownership

plan, under which our employees’ share purchases by way of payroll deduction are supplemented by contributions

by their employer."

[SafetyinNumbers]

22 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

That and they would all occur the same day at the same price. Different prices and Bradstreet's occurring on a different day make you wonder. This is beer money for all of those guys. What gives? 

Maybe sending a signal? December buybacks should also be announced by the end of the week. Given the large print near the end of December, they might have bought back over 1% of the shares last month alone. I have been picking away too despite vowing not to add anymore (it’s now a 47% position).
 

I think the underperformance  is due to some Canadian active managers moving to make their Financials exposure more Canadian and economically sensitive following Trudeau’s resignation announcement and selling that was deferred for tax reasons. Reasons to sell that are not related to FFH’s intrinsic value in other words.
 

The short term catalysts prompted me to add but perhaps the market won’t respond as I expect. In the next 3 months we’ll have Q1 results which should be well above consensus, the shareholder’s letter and the AGM. We may also get more information about potential Anchorage and Ki IPOs. BVPS inclusive of the dividend might be $100+ higher in just over 4 months when they report Q1.

 

 

[Hoodlum]

Swiss Re provides some projections for Premium growth out to 2026.  It looks like we won't see much of a drop next year although this will likely be dependent on what happens this coming Cat season.  Swiss Re likely used an average Cat. season in determining the 4% premium growth for 2026.

 

https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/ca/news/reinsurance/us-pandc-insurance-sector-set-for-stable-roe-in-2025--swiss-re-519488.aspx

 

Swiss Re anticipates that premium growth will slow, with a forecasted 5% increase in 2025 and 4% in 2026, compared to nearly 10% in 2024. 

[dartmonkey]

14 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

I think the underperformance  is due to some Canadian active managers moving to make their Financials exposure more Canadian and economically sensitive following Trudeau’s resignation announcement and selling that was deferred for tax reasons. Reasons to sell that are not related to FFH’s intrinsic value in other words.

Meaning that Fairfax is not really a Canadian financials exposure, given that most of its operations are abroad?

It's hard for me to say whether the resignation is good for Canadian business or bad. Trudeau was certainly poisonous, but the very likely prospect of elections in the Spring or Fall, with an almost certaiin Conservative victory with Trudeau leading the Liberals, is now looking a bit less certain. Carney or someone else might do a good enough job to salvage Liberals' fortunes, or reduce the Tories to a minority. I think a Tory majority victory is still the most likely outcome, but the probabillity may have gone from 95% to 75%.

[SafetyinNumbers]

30 minutes ago, dartmonkey said:

Meaning that Fairfax is not really a Canadian financials exposure, given that most of its operations are abroad?

It's hard for me to say whether the resignation is good for Canadian business or bad. Trudeau was certainly poisonous, but the very likely prospect of elections in the Spring or Fall, with an almost certaiin Conservative victory with Trudeau leading the Liberals, is now looking a bit less certain. Carney or someone else might do a good enough job to salvage Liberals' fortunes, or reduce the Tories to a minority. I think a Tory majority victory is still the most likely outcome, but the probabillity may have gone from 95% to 75%.

Yeah, that’s the general idea. Stronger CAD and stronger Canadian economy is better for CAD exposed financials. It’s just a bet on the narrative impacting flows. I don’t think there is a lot of probability analysis around it.