Eff You Money

[SharperDingaan]

1 hour ago, 73 Reds said:

Problem is,  I can't get past your assumptions because t-bills or the like make no sense since I would view them as wasted assets (your earlier post posited margining t-bills). In any event I can generate a better return on a non-marginable fixed income portfolio without margin so why bother?  Granted, it requires some creativity and like you suggest, is not for everyone.  But my main point is that margin is the worst form of debt.  If you are going to borrow for the purpose of investment, there are far better alternatives.  Why would you want to assume more risk with margin?  Its like free money for the brokerage houses so what do you think that means for you?

 

No worries, it's just a different approach to managing risk. 

 

SD

[Dalal.Holdings]

3 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

 

Everyone's 'best idea' will be different; many view BTC/BTC-ETF as a cash equivalent, and would suggest that at current levels a 50% one-year return is conservative . $93,623 on $1,000,000 of fixed income collateral is < 10% margin, $93,623 on $250,000 of T-Bills is 37%, or < 50% of the available T-Bill margin. Not a lot of risk for the NET additional after-tax $30,000 recovering the loss to inflation.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Like I said, we're getting detached from reality when 50% annual returns are deemed "conservative".

[SharperDingaan]

1 hour ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

Like I said, we're getting detached from reality when 50% annual returns are deemed "conservative".

 

Early September you could have bought BTC at around 55K, and sold mid December at around 105K; or 90% in maybe 4 months. Seems to me that only 50%, and over an entire year, is super conservative  https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/?fr=sycsrp_catchall

 

SD

[Dalal.Holdings]

Instead of saying "we're getting detached from reality", I should have said already detached

[james22]

4 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

Like I said, we're getting detached from reality when 50% annual returns are deemed "conservative".

 

By what measure?

 

If you only recognize opportunities with conservative returns, you'll only get conservative returns (at best).

[Dalal.Holdings]

2 hours ago, james22 said:

 

By what measure?

 

If you only recognize opportunities with conservative returns, you'll only get conservative returns (at best).

 

The post I quoted was forecasting 50% 1 year return for Bitcoin as a “conservative” estimate.

[SharperDingaan]

We just don't want to.hear it; use your own best choice instead.

 

Outside of options, BTC is one of THE most volatile investments there is, and many are calling for 150-250K within the next 12 months. Most everyone who owns BTC also swing trades it, and BTC can currently be bought for under 100K. Are you really saying that in this kind of environment, you could NOT make at least 50%? 

 

SD

 

[james22]

2 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

The post I quoted was forecasting 50% 1 year return for Bitcoin as a “conservative” estimate.

 

And for bitcoin it may be.

 

That's why it's the opportunity it is.

 

Don't dismiss it out of hand just because the estimated return seems crazily high compared to BRK, the S&P500, etc. 

[Paarslaars]

4 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

We just don't want to.hear it; use your own best choice instead.

 

Outside of options, BTC is one of THE most volatile investments there is, and many are calling for 150-250K within the next 12 months. Most everyone who owns BTC also swing trades it, and BTC can currently be bought for under 100K. Are you really saying that in this kind of environment, you could NOT make at least 50%? 

 

SD

 

All the respect for how you manage this, wish I could as well but swing trading is a skill I have not mastered yet...

I think when you're a full time investor this gets easier but I'm not there yet.  

[Milu]

2 hours ago, Paarslaars said:

All the respect for how you manage this, wish I could as well but swing trading is a skill I have not mastered yet...

I think when you're a full time investor this gets easier but I'm not there yet.  

Not too sure what swing trading is but I'd have thought the majority of bitcoin holders would have done well by simply just holding the asset through the ups and downs. Anybody who has bought over the last 3, 5, 10 years would do fantastically well just sitting there doing nothing, and likely have done a lot worse attempting to trade the ups and downs.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Yep, I was right: detached from reality.

[73 Reds]

1 hour ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

Yep, I was right: detached from reality.

Yeah, I guess all the BTC swing traders manage to buy low and sell high every time and never lose any money.  It's that easy.  Anyone can do it.    Surprised there aren't more "How to trade BTC for guaranteed wealth" seminars and videos for purchase on line.  Coming soon.

Edited December 31, 2024 by 73 Reds

[Gregmal]

Eh, I think theres a tendency in the "investor" community to dismiss "trading" because its largely a quantitative skill. I spent a bunch of years earlier in my career doing it. Its not hard, you just need the right mindset and temperament. I dont think 30-50% gross returns are "that" unrealistic, especially if the market is choppy and you have lots of volatility. What anyone who's decent at it eventually runs into though, is that the real problem is the 40%+ haircut you have to take on your winners, and the pain in the ass that is the wash sale rule. After all those adjustments to your "real" returns, you get to the point where adjusting for the time, theres likely more productive ways to make a buck. 

[Dalal.Holdings]

32 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Yeah, I guess all the BTC swing traders manage to buy low and sell high every time and never lose any money.  It's that easy.  Anyone can do it.    Surprised there aren't more "How to trade BTC for guaranteed wealth" seminars and videos for purchase on line.  Coming soon.

 

If making 50% a year is conservative, especially for a $2 Trillion market cap asset, these guys should hit the Forbes billionaire list real soon

 

[73 Reds]

2 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

If making 50% a year is conservative, especially for a $2 Trillion market cap asset, these guys should hit the Forbes billionaire list real soon

 

They'll be poking fun at Buffett & Co. for missing out on a needle-moving investment.  Sometimes the future is so visible far in advance.

[james22]

2 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

Yep, I was right: detached from reality.

 

Reality:

 

BTC +117% YTD

 

MSTR +352% YTD

 

You're detached if you don't know that and not much of an investor if you don't wonder if it might repeat that performance in 2025.

[Dalal.Holdings]

3 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

Reality:

 

BTC +117% YTD

 

MSTR +352% YTD

 

You're detached if you don't know that and not much of an investor if you don't wonder if it might repeat that performance in 2025.

 

Okay.

[james22]

48 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

If making 50% a year is conservative, especially for a $2 Trillion market cap asset, these guys should hit the Forbes billionaire list real soon

 

What's gold's market cap? What do you expect a digital gold's market cap to eventually be?

 

Fat pitches aren't labeled.

[SharperDingaan]

36 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

Reality:

 

BTC +117% YTD

 

MSTR +352% YTD

 

You're detached if you don't know that and not much of an investor if you don't wonder if it might repeat that performance in 2025.

 

Great post! ....  it was the same argument around the CS/UBS merger. Nobody likes change, and fewer still are able to capitalise on it.

Just keep in mind that at 150-200K the cost of a BTC-ETF is roughly $30-40 (assume 5,000:1). Blue-chips become compelling dividend paying alternatives, particularly if you're also trying to protect very material gains for a future house down payment.

 

Happy New Year!

 

SD

 

 

Edited December 31, 2024 by SharperDingaan

[gfp]

2 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

Great post! ....  it was the same argument around the CS/UBS merger. Nobody likes change, and fewer still are able to capitalise on it.

Just keep in mind that at 150-200K the cost of a BTC-ETF is roughly $30-40 (assume 5,000:1). Blue-chips become compelling alternatives, particularly if you're also trying to protect very material gains for a future house down payment.

 

Happy New Year!

 

SD

 

 

 

I don't think I will ever understand why you focus on an arbitrary price per share of the bitcoin ETFs - they can split and it is a meaningless number.

[SharperDingaan]

1 minute ago, gfp said:

 

I don't think I will ever understand why you focus on an arbitrary price per share of the bitcoin ETFs - they can split and it is a meaningless number.

 

Simple; buy 10,000 units of a BTC-ETF. If you don't have a good idea as to how many BTC that is, and what BTC was trading at when you bought that BTC-ETF, you need to step away. Price movement in BTC should mimic in the BTC-ETF; and the BTC-ETF is bought so that one gets regulated market protection, and doesn't have to deal with wallets, options access, security, etc. The split is to so as to keep the price of BTC-ETF economical; increasing the split to lower the share price, is the same as doing a conventional share split ... so you need some idea as to what it was when you bought in. 

 

Were BTC to go to 110K from 100K tomorrow (+10%), most would expect the BTC-ETF to largely do the same ... so if you don't know what BTC was at the time you bought the BTC-ETF, you have no idea as to what to expect.

 

SD

 

 

[bargainman]

On 12/28/2024 at 8:41 AM, Eldad said:

Actions speak louder than words. Trump says lock her up. Then first week in office says they will not pursue Hillary. Democrats say save democracy then try to jail political opponents. 

I find many things about Trump to be terrible, but he has an appeal with low propensity voters and previous non voters that allows him to beat Democrats. The current Democrat party is too corrupt to have power IMO. 
 

 

Trump has crossed so many norms of politics it's unsurprising that the Dems are fighting back.  The attempted insurrection was really something, reminds me of Hugo Chavez, but I guess he didn't lead it, just cheered it on?  Election interference was the biggest issue and concern along with claims of presidential immunity.  Will he vacate in 4 years?  All the sexual abuse and others... well he is who he is and will never change.  Other than his family, it seems everyone he's ever worked closely with despises the guy, and has nothing good to say about him. Kelly wrote a book about it.  But yes he does appeal to an element of the population that others don't.  He knows how to market and create fear that's for sure especially to those who will and want to believe his lies.  Wrt to Fox, yeah, I'm guessing they are just as biased as what everyone's calling MSM, but I guess we're in the post-verifiable truth era, especially with Gen AI...

 

The Dem party is incompetent, I'll give you that.  I'm not sure I'd call them any more corrupt than the Republican.  Their last 3 candidates were Hillary, Biden, and Harris after a botched Biden attempt?  No wonder the Red party has all 3 branches now.

[nsx5200]

16 minutes ago, bargainman said:

The Dem party is incompetent, I'll give you that.

 

I would claim that the Dem leans too much on the side of idealistic than practical, and that is the real reason for the Dems losing, not because they're incompetent.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

On 12/28/2024 at 12:34 PM, Gregmal said:

Before Elon, it was basically everyone vs Fox News in terms of left vs right in msm. As we saw in 2020, they  left and big government were easily able to control news flow to distort the widespread perception.

 

And Fox was the only one who had to pay a $700 million settlement after being charged with knowingly peddling false information...

 

When one side is content to peddle in lies, it's ok that everyone else is on the other side of the debate. MSM isn't perfect - and it is absolutely propaganda. But the propaganda is typically enacted in the framing or in what they don't talk about - not in outright lights like Fox and the more niche MAGA-sites/news run. 

 

On 12/29/2024 at 5:42 PM, Parsad said:

 

No you can't make this stuff up, but apparently you are!  Where were they secure at Mar-a-Lago...in the john?! 

 

Both are assholes...doesn't excuse the behavior of either of them.  Cheers!

 

Lol'd

 

16 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

The post I quoted was forecasting 50% 1 year return for Bitcoin as a “conservative” estimate.

 

Even at its bottom of 15k in 2022 - the historical performance of BTC was far in excess of 50%/yr from its inception. And that was after an 80+% drawdown!

 

I'm not saying you should pencil in 50% into perpetuity - but the network adoption and estimated growth curves supports 40-50% pretty easily for the next several years. 

Edited December 31, 2024 by TwoCitiesCapital

[73 Reds]

5 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

And Fox was the only one who had to pay a $700 million settlement after being charged with knowingly peddling false information...

 

When one side is content to peddle in lies, it's ok that everyone else is on the other side of the debate. MSM isn't perfect - and it is absolutely propaganda. But the propaganda is typically enacted in the framing or in what they don't talk about - not in outright lights like Fox and the more niche MAGA-sites/news run. 

 

 

Lol'd

 

 

Even at its bottom of 15k in 2022 - the historical performance of BTC was far in excess of 50%/yr from its inception. And that was after an 80+% drawdown!

 

I'm not saying you should pencil in 50% into perpetuity - but the network adoption and estimated growth curves supports 40-50% pretty easily for the next several years. 

LOL, I'll take the under.