Best Idea(s) for 2025

[treasurehunt]

8 hours ago, backtothebeach said:

Thanks for that work @treasurehunt!

I would take FRFHF for Fairfax, since it is already in USD. Its closing price 2024 was around $1400 (FFH was C$2000), not sure why you get $1513.40 with the currency conversion.

 

Thanks for this catch. Looks like all the exchange rates I was using for the beginning of the year (midnight of Dec 31, 2024) were off thanks to Gemini giving me the wrong values. After updating these numbers, FFH return goes up to 39%. Many picks now show higher returns - the average is over 41% and the median over 21%. What a spectacular year for the board!

[Spooky]

On 12/29/2025 at 11:03 AM, Saluki said:

I think as a thesis, profitable small caps (not story stocks) will have a great 2026. As the SP500 index continues to do well and the PE is higher and higher, the cap weight feature means that the 10 biggest stocks will continue to suck the oxygen away from small caps. 

 

I'm seeing some really cheap stuff, below $100mm and profitable. 

 

I also notice that a lot of stuff that is has hair on it but looks great long term (Venture Global, Crox, Nintendo) continues to be down because people won't buy it because it's down. Even though it looks less risky than it did a year ago. Weird.

Posted this in another thread but S&P 600 could be a good shout / hunting ground. People are bidding up unprofitable small caps.

 

 

[ranimo]

On 12/30/2025 at 5:12 AM, treasurehunt said:

 

Here's a sheet with the picks and returns. Not too many errors, I hope; the dividend column likely has mistakes though. For calculating returns, I assumed that dividends are paid out at the end. Also, I omitted Cod Liver Oil's excellent short MSTR pick, as I wasn't sure how to calculate the return on this.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x7GjWA6524jZG2JRvVa3qRZxYwBgZb98qjrx08AhjkQ/edit?usp=sharing

 

 

Average Return	35.29%
Median Return	17.69%

 

Picks with returns > 100%. The SNDK start price is from March 15, 2025 because that's when kh812000 made the pick.

 

 

 

Security	Ticker	Proponent	Current Price In USD	Price on 12/31/2024 In USD	Dividends Paid Per Share (USD)	Total Return
SanDisk Corp	SNDK	kh812000	$244.25	$54.82	$0.00	345.55%
Micron Technology Inc	MU	Longnose	$294.37	$84.16	$0.46	250.32%
Zegona Communications PLC	LON:ZEG	kab60	$18.37	$5.32	$0.00	245.18%
Federal National Mortgage Association	FNMA	sleepydragon	$10.33	$3.28	$0.00	214.94%
Liquidia Corp	LQDA	whatstheofficerproblem	$34.75	$11.76	$0.00	195.49%
Mako Mining Corp	CVE:MKO	SafetyInNumbers	$5.80	$2.41	$0.00	141.07%
Millicom International Cellular SA	TIGO	jefke	$55.31	$25.01	$4.50	139.14%
Grupo Mexico SAB de CV	GMBXF	KPO	$9.49	$4.69	$0.27	108.10%
Heidelberg Materials AG	ETR:HEI	Dinar	$262.80	$133.13	$3.89	100.32%

 

 

Very interesting! Thanks for taking the time to compile!

Any chance you have something similar for prior years?

[treasurehunt]

10 hours ago, ranimo said:

Very interesting! Thanks for taking the time to compile!

Any chance you have something similar for prior years?

Unfortunately not. I only compiled 2025 and 2026; I'll post the link to the 2026 sheet soon.

 

@formthirteen has created scripts that can generate the sheets by scanning the forum threads with the picks. Maybe he can run the scripts on the threads with prior years' picks?

[formthirteen]

15 hours ago, treasurehunt said:

@formthirteen has created scripts that can generate the sheets by scanning the forum threads with the picks. Maybe he can run the scripts on the threads with prior years' picks?

 

Thank you treasurehunt for helping refine the script. It's now significantly more reliable. Here's the data for 2024:
 

Spoiler

# COBF Best Ideas for 2024

**Source:** https://thecobf.com/forum/topic/20495-your-best-investments-for-2024-and-beyond/
**Analyzed:** 2026-01-03

## Summary

| Metric         | Value             |
| -------------- | ----------------- |
| Total Posts    | 112               |
| Unique Tickers | 95                |
| Unique Authors | 32                |
| Top Pick       | FFH.TO (10 picks) |

## Top Original Best Ideas

| Ticker    | Picks |
| --------- | ----- |
| FFH.TO    | 10    |
| JOE       | 8     |
| NTDOY     | 6     |
| BRK.B     | 5     |
| BABA      | 4     |
| BTC       | 4     |
| EVO.ST    | 2     |
| CL=F      | 2     |
| MKO.V     | 2     |
| AIV       | 2     |
| BTI       | 2     |
| BN        | 2     |
| IDT       | 2     |
| GLASF     | 2     |
| ILMN      | 2     |
| EBAY      | 2     |
| ADSK      | 2     |
| PRX.AS    | 1     |
| EXO.MI    | 1     |
| HSW.L     | 1     |
| BELFB     | 1     |
| CI        | 1     |
| CLPR      | 1     |
| GHC       | 1     |
| HEIO.AS   | 1     |
| 0184.HK   | 1     |
| MCEM      | 1     |
| MRO.L     | 1     |
| NEN       | 1     |
| PM        | 1     |
| TASE.TA   | 1     |
| VSTS      | 1     |
| APO       | 1     |
| KKR       | 1     |
| LUV       | 1     |
| HUM       | 1     |
| IAC       | 1     |
| TRUX      | 1     |
| FFBB      | 1     |
| CZBS      | 1     |
| MFBP      | 1     |
| UBAB      | 1     |
| OPBK      | 1     |
| EXSR      | 1     |
| MSTR      | 1     |
| PBR       | 1     |
| SRUUF     | 1     |
| BYON      | 1     |
| OXY       | 1     |
| SOL       | 1     |
| DRM.TO    | 1     |
| BTU       | 1     |
| GC=F      | 1     |
| CPRI      | 1     |
| ACI       | 1     |
| NVDA      | 1     |
| AX.UN.TO  | 1     |
| MRG.UN.TO | 1     |
| ATZ.TO    | 1     |
| JELD      | 1     |
| BLDR      | 1     |
| DBM.TO    | 1     |
| RCH.TO    | 1     |
| CASH      | 1     |
| SCHW      | 1     |
| XPEL      | 1     |
| HQI       | 1     |
| SPHR      | 1     |
| PX        | 1     |
| BRDG      | 1     |
| PACB      | 1     |
| THRX      | 1     |
| RPHM      | 1     |
| MRTX      | 1     |
| MSGE      | 1     |
| PYPL      | 1     |
| TSU.TO    | 1     |
| C         | 1     |
| CET       | 1     |
| ICE       | 1     |
| NNI       | 1     |
| FIH.U     | 1     |
| GLDD      | 1     |
| IMXI      | 1     |
| KRO       | 1     |
| TCEHY     | 1     |
| CPNG      | 1     |
| CROX      | 1     |
| RTO       | 1     |
| KRKNF     | 1     |
| ACX.TO    | 1     |
| SSD       | 1     |
| JXN       | 1     |
| BARC.L    | 1     |
| STNE      | 1     |

 

 

2023:
 

Spoiler

# COBF Best Ideas for 2023

**Source:** https://thecobf.com/forum/topic/19857-best-investment-ideas-for-2023/
**Analyzed:** 2026-01-03

## Summary

| Metric         | Value          |
| -------------- | -------------- |
| Total Posts    | 111            |
| Unique Tickers | 73             |
| Unique Authors | 24             |
| Top Pick       | META (5 picks) |

## Top Original Best Ideas

| Ticker   | Picks |
| -------- | ----- |
| META     | 5     |
| FFH.TO   | 4     |
| GOOGL    | 4     |
| AMZN     | 4     |
| CL=F     | 3     |
| JOE      | 3     |
| NVDA     | 2     |
| ONEX.TO  | 2     |
| ELF.TO   | 2     |
| KKR      | 2     |
| BRK.B    | 2     |
| TSM      | 2     |
| CNQ      | 1     |
| CVE      | 1     |
| SU       | 1     |
| PYPL     | 1     |
| QCOM     | 1     |
| CIBR     | 1     |
| SOXX     | 1     |
| LGT-B.TO | 1     |
| AVB      | 1     |
| OBE      | 1     |
| APO      | 1     |
| VRE      | 1     |
| INDT     | 1     |
| TSLQ     | 1     |
| UMG      | 1     |
| LVMUY    | 1     |
| HSW.L    | 1     |
| ODET.PA  | 1     |
| BOL.PA   | 1     |
| ONEX     | 1     |
| FRP      | 1     |
| AQN.TO   | 1     |
| EC       | 1     |
| BTU      | 1     |
| RIG      | 1     |
| ABG      | 1     |
| AMBP     | 1     |
| CHTR     | 1     |
| PUBM     | 1     |
| BTI      | 1     |
| BIG      | 1     |
| MATV     | 1     |
| GRFS     | 1     |
| SRG      | 1     |
| TCI      | 1     |
| MSFT     | 1     |
| ADBE     | 1     |
| TSLA     | 1     |
| SPOT     | 1     |
| SHOP     | 1     |
| GIGM     | 1     |
| ACTG     | 1     |
| C        | 1     |
| BN       | 1     |
| BABA     | 1     |
| PRX.AS   | 1     |
| AAPL     | 1     |
| BX       | 1     |
| OSTK     | 1     |
| NLS      | 1     |
| GFG      | 1     |
| AGAE     | 1     |
| AESE     | 1     |
| GC=F     | 1     |
| KARE.AT  | 1     |
| CLPR     | 1     |
| AAL      | 1     |
| WFC      | 1     |
| STT      | 1     |
| BK       | 1     |
| UBS      | 1     |

 

 

Performance report for 2023:

Spoiler

  2023 Best Ideas Performance (Jan 2023 → Today)

  | Metric         | Value    |
  |----------------|----------|
  | Stocks tracked | 63       |
  | Average return | +103.0%  |
  | Median return  | +60.3%   |
  | Winners (>0%)  | 48 (76%) |
  | Losers (<0%)   | 15 (23%) |

  Top 10 Performers

  | Ticker | Return   | Authors                             |
  |--------|----------|-------------------------------------|
  | NVDA   | +1220.6% | E. Nashton, Viking                  |
  | SPOT   | +602.1%  | E. Nashton                          |
  | META   | +425.1%  | E. Nashton, Luke, UK, Viking, kab60 |
  | TSM    | +352.4%  | Luke, UK                            |
  | SHOP   | +340.6%  | E. Nashton                          |
  | TSLA   | +305.2%  | E. Nashton                          |
  | GOOGL  | +256.3%  | E. Nashton, Luke, UK, Viking        |
  | FFH.TO | +237.0%  | StevieV, UK, Viking, ourkid8        |
  | C      | +189.2%  | ourkid8                             |
  | KKR    | +182.6%  | Red Lion, StevieV

 

 

E. Nashton's had some great recommendations in 2023:

 

FFH is a perennial favorite but it seems nobody recommended FFH as a new holding in 2025.   4 mentions but classified as "existing holdings" not new picks:

 

Spoiler

 Top Picks Comparison Across Years (2023-2026)

  | Ticker | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total | Trend              |
  |--------|------|------|------|------|-------|--------------------|
  | FFH.TO | 4    | 10   | -    | 7    | 21    | Perennial favorite |
  | NTDOY  | -    | 6    | 3    | 7    | 16    | Rising star        |
  | JOE    | 3    | 8    | 4    | 2    | 17    | Peaked in 2024     |
  | GOOGL  | 4    | -    | -    | 3    | 7     | Rebounding         |
  | BTC    | -    | 4    | 3    | -    | 7     | Crypto interest    |
  | CPNG   | -    | -    | -    | 6    | 6     | New 2026 favorite  |
  | CSU.TO | -    | -    | -    | 5    | 5     | New 2026 pick      |
  | META   | 5    | -    | -    | -    | 5     | 2023 winner        |
  | BRK.B  | -    | 5    | -    | -    | 5     | 2024 only          |
  | AMZN   | 4    | -    | -    | 2    | 6     | Rebounding         |
  | MELI   | -    | -    | -    | 4    | 4     | New 2026           |
  | CROX   | -    | -    | -    | 4    | 4     | New 2026           |
  | PYPL   | -    | -    | -    | 4    | 4     | New 2026           |

  Key Observations:

  1. FFH.TO (Fairfax) - Only ticker in top 10 for 3 of 4 years (21 total picks)
  2. NTDOY (Nintendo) - Malmqky's 3-year consecutive pick, gaining momentum
  3. JOE - Peaked in 2024 (8 picks), still popular but declining
  4. Tech rotation - META dominated 2023, replaced by CPNG/CSU.TO in 2026
  5. 2026 newcomers - CPNG, CSU.TO, MELI, CROX, PYPL all new to top 10
  6. Crypto fading - BTC peaked in 2024-2025, absent from 2026 top picks

  Consistency Champions:
  - FFH.TO: Top pick in 2024 (10), strong in 2023 (4) and 2026 (7)
  - NTDOY: Growing each year - 6 → 3 → 7
  - JOE: Consistent presence but declining - 3 → 8 → 4 → 2

 

 

Edited January 3 by formthirteen

[villainx]

Thank you. All pretty interesting. 
 

 

[MungerWunger]

5 hours ago, formthirteen said:

 

Thank you treasurehunt for helping refine the script. It's now significantly more reliable. Here's the data for 2024:
 

  Reveal hidden contents

# COBF Best Ideas for 2024

**Source:** https://thecobf.com/forum/topic/20495-your-best-investments-for-2024-and-beyond/
**Analyzed:** 2026-01-03

## Summary

| Metric         | Value             |
| -------------- | ----------------- |
| Total Posts    | 112               |
| Unique Tickers | 95                |
| Unique Authors | 32                |
| Top Pick       | FFH.TO (10 picks) |

## Top Original Best Ideas

| Ticker    | Picks |
| --------- | ----- |
| FFH.TO    | 10    |
| JOE       | 8     |
| NTDOY     | 6     |
| BRK.B     | 5     |
| BABA      | 4     |
| BTC       | 4     |
| EVO.ST    | 2     |
| CL=F      | 2     |
| MKO.V     | 2     |
| AIV       | 2     |
| BTI       | 2     |
| BN        | 2     |
| IDT       | 2     |
| GLASF     | 2     |
| ILMN      | 2     |
| EBAY      | 2     |
| ADSK      | 2     |
| PRX.AS    | 1     |
| EXO.MI    | 1     |
| HSW.L     | 1     |
| BELFB     | 1     |
| CI        | 1     |
| CLPR      | 1     |
| GHC       | 1     |
| HEIO.AS   | 1     |
| 0184.HK   | 1     |
| MCEM      | 1     |
| MRO.L     | 1     |
| NEN       | 1     |
| PM        | 1     |
| TASE.TA   | 1     |
| VSTS      | 1     |
| APO       | 1     |
| KKR       | 1     |
| LUV       | 1     |
| HUM       | 1     |
| IAC       | 1     |
| TRUX      | 1     |
| FFBB      | 1     |
| CZBS      | 1     |
| MFBP      | 1     |
| UBAB      | 1     |
| OPBK      | 1     |
| EXSR      | 1     |
| MSTR      | 1     |
| PBR       | 1     |
| SRUUF     | 1     |
| BYON      | 1     |
| OXY       | 1     |
| SOL       | 1     |
| DRM.TO    | 1     |
| BTU       | 1     |
| GC=F      | 1     |
| CPRI      | 1     |
| ACI       | 1     |
| NVDA      | 1     |
| AX.UN.TO  | 1     |
| MRG.UN.TO | 1     |
| ATZ.TO    | 1     |
| JELD      | 1     |
| BLDR      | 1     |
| DBM.TO    | 1     |
| RCH.TO    | 1     |
| CASH      | 1     |
| SCHW      | 1     |
| XPEL      | 1     |
| HQI       | 1     |
| SPHR      | 1     |
| PX        | 1     |
| BRDG      | 1     |
| PACB      | 1     |
| THRX      | 1     |
| RPHM      | 1     |
| MRTX      | 1     |
| MSGE      | 1     |
| PYPL      | 1     |
| TSU.TO    | 1     |
| C         | 1     |
| CET       | 1     |
| ICE       | 1     |
| NNI       | 1     |
| FIH.U     | 1     |
| GLDD      | 1     |
| IMXI      | 1     |
| KRO       | 1     |
| TCEHY     | 1     |
| CPNG      | 1     |
| CROX      | 1     |
| RTO       | 1     |
| KRKNF     | 1     |
| ACX.TO    | 1     |
| SSD       | 1     |
| JXN       | 1     |
| BARC.L    | 1     |
| STNE      | 1     |

 

 

2023:
 

  Reveal hidden contents

# COBF Best Ideas for 2023

**Source:** https://thecobf.com/forum/topic/19857-best-investment-ideas-for-2023/
**Analyzed:** 2026-01-03

## Summary

| Metric         | Value          |
| -------------- | -------------- |
| Total Posts    | 111            |
| Unique Tickers | 73             |
| Unique Authors | 24             |
| Top Pick       | META (5 picks) |

## Top Original Best Ideas

| Ticker   | Picks |
| -------- | ----- |
| META     | 5     |
| FFH.TO   | 4     |
| GOOGL    | 4     |
| AMZN     | 4     |
| CL=F     | 3     |
| JOE      | 3     |
| NVDA     | 2     |
| ONEX.TO  | 2     |
| ELF.TO   | 2     |
| KKR      | 2     |
| BRK.B    | 2     |
| TSM      | 2     |
| CNQ      | 1     |
| CVE      | 1     |
| SU       | 1     |
| PYPL     | 1     |
| QCOM     | 1     |
| CIBR     | 1     |
| SOXX     | 1     |
| LGT-B.TO | 1     |
| AVB      | 1     |
| OBE      | 1     |
| APO      | 1     |
| VRE      | 1     |
| INDT     | 1     |
| TSLQ     | 1     |
| UMG      | 1     |
| LVMUY    | 1     |
| HSW.L    | 1     |
| ODET.PA  | 1     |
| BOL.PA   | 1     |
| ONEX     | 1     |
| FRP      | 1     |
| AQN.TO   | 1     |
| EC       | 1     |
| BTU      | 1     |
| RIG      | 1     |
| ABG      | 1     |
| AMBP     | 1     |
| CHTR     | 1     |
| PUBM     | 1     |
| BTI      | 1     |
| BIG      | 1     |
| MATV     | 1     |
| GRFS     | 1     |
| SRG      | 1     |
| TCI      | 1     |
| MSFT     | 1     |
| ADBE     | 1     |
| TSLA     | 1     |
| SPOT     | 1     |
| SHOP     | 1     |
| GIGM     | 1     |
| ACTG     | 1     |
| C        | 1     |
| BN       | 1     |
| BABA     | 1     |
| PRX.AS   | 1     |
| AAPL     | 1     |
| BX       | 1     |
| OSTK     | 1     |
| NLS      | 1     |
| GFG      | 1     |
| AGAE     | 1     |
| AESE     | 1     |
| GC=F     | 1     |
| KARE.AT  | 1     |
| CLPR     | 1     |
| AAL      | 1     |
| WFC      | 1     |
| STT      | 1     |
| BK       | 1     |
| UBS      | 1     |

 

 

Performance report for 2023:

  Reveal hidden contents

  2023 Best Ideas Performance (Jan 2023 → Today)

  | Metric         | Value    |
  |----------------|----------|
  | Stocks tracked | 63       |
  | Average return | +103.0%  |
  | Median return  | +60.3%   |
  | Winners (>0%)  | 48 (76%) |
  | Losers (<0%)   | 15 (23%) |

  Top 10 Performers

  | Ticker | Return   | Authors                             |
  |--------|----------|-------------------------------------|
  | NVDA   | +1220.6% | E. Nashton, Viking                  |
  | SPOT   | +602.1%  | E. Nashton                          |
  | META   | +425.1%  | E. Nashton, Luke, UK, Viking, kab60 |
  | TSM    | +352.4%  | Luke, UK                            |
  | SHOP   | +340.6%  | E. Nashton                          |
  | TSLA   | +305.2%  | E. Nashton                          |
  | GOOGL  | +256.3%  | E. Nashton, Luke, UK, Viking        |
  | FFH.TO | +237.0%  | StevieV, UK, Viking, ourkid8        |
  | C      | +189.2%  | ourkid8                             |
  | KKR    | +182.6%  | Red Lion, StevieV

 

 

E. Nashton's had some great recommendations in 2023:

 

FFH is a perennial favorite but it seems nobody recommended FFH as a new holding in 2025.   4 mentions but classified as "existing holdings" not new picks:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 Top Picks Comparison Across Years (2023-2026)

  | Ticker | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total | Trend              |
  |--------|------|------|------|------|-------|--------------------|
  | FFH.TO | 4    | 10   | -    | 7    | 21    | Perennial favorite |
  | NTDOY  | -    | 6    | 3    | 7    | 16    | Rising star        |
  | JOE    | 3    | 8    | 4    | 2    | 17    | Peaked in 2024     |
  | GOOGL  | 4    | -    | -    | 3    | 7     | Rebounding         |
  | BTC    | -    | 4    | 3    | -    | 7     | Crypto interest    |
  | CPNG   | -    | -    | -    | 6    | 6     | New 2026 favorite  |
  | CSU.TO | -    | -    | -    | 5    | 5     | New 2026 pick      |
  | META   | 5    | -    | -    | -    | 5     | 2023 winner        |
  | BRK.B  | -    | 5    | -    | -    | 5     | 2024 only          |
  | AMZN   | 4    | -    | -    | 2    | 6     | Rebounding         |
  | MELI   | -    | -    | -    | 4    | 4     | New 2026           |
  | CROX   | -    | -    | -    | 4    | 4     | New 2026           |
  | PYPL   | -    | -    | -    | 4    | 4     | New 2026           |

  Key Observations:

  1. FFH.TO (Fairfax) - Only ticker in top 10 for 3 of 4 years (21 total picks)
  2. NTDOY (Nintendo) - Malmqky's 3-year consecutive pick, gaining momentum
  3. JOE - Peaked in 2024 (8 picks), still popular but declining
  4. Tech rotation - META dominated 2023, replaced by CPNG/CSU.TO in 2026
  5. 2026 newcomers - CPNG, CSU.TO, MELI, CROX, PYPL all new to top 10
  6. Crypto fading - BTC peaked in 2024-2025, absent from 2026 top picks

  Consistency Champions:
  - FFH.TO: Top pick in 2024 (10), strong in 2023 (4) and 2026 (7)
  - NTDOY: Growing each year - 6 → 3 → 7
  - JOE: Consistent presence but declining - 3 → 8 → 4 → 2

 

 

I wonder how well a basket of beaten down software stocks will do from here (following @E. Nashton's approach from the 2023 thread)

 

Workday, Adobe, Constellation, Salesforce, SAP etc. to name a few

Edited January 3 by MungerWunger

[Rainier]

11 minutes ago, MungerWunger said:

I wonder how well a basket of beaten down software stocks will do from here (following @E. Nashton's approach from the 2023 thread)

 

Workday, Adobe, Constellation, Salesforce, SAP etc. to name a few

This is a big part of my strategy. CNSWF, ZS, DT, PANW, FTNT, SLP, VEEV, SNPS are the ones I’m targeting.

[ranimo]

On 1/3/2026 at 12:11 AM, treasurehunt said:

Unfortunately not. I only compiled 2025 and 2026; I'll post the link to the 2026 sheet soon.

 

@formthirteen has created scripts that can generate the sheets by scanning the forum threads with the picks. Maybe he can run the scripts on the threads with prior years' picks?

@formthirteen - I couldn't find the scripts in the site, any chance I could take a look at them?

Edited January 4 by ranimo

[formthirteen]

50 minutes ago, ranimo said:

@formthirteen - I couldn't find the scripts in the site, any chance I could take a look at them?

 

Sure I'll send you a private message.

[winjitsu]

3 hours ago, ranimo said:

@formthirteen - I couldn't find the scripts in the site, any chance I could take a look at them?

You can likely do this w/ Claude Code now with the Chrome browser plugin, or with ChatGPT Atlas. 

 

AI coming to take our jobs  
 

Edited January 4 by winjitsu

[brobro777]

On 1/3/2026 at 11:08 AM, MungerWunger said:

I wonder how well a basket of beaten down software stocks will do from here (following @E. Nashton's approach from the 2023 thread)

 

Workday, Adobe, Constellation, Salesforce, SAP etc. to name a few

 

ADBE 5 year return -33%

 

You may be right, worth a shot from here!

 

 

[Spekulatius]

7 hours ago, brobro777 said:

 

ADBE 5 year return -33%

 

You may be right, worth a shot from here!

 

 

From the above, SAP isn’t really cheap, imo. I think the other stocks mentioned are. I own WDAY and CSU. ADBE is looking very interesting too, but I think they have higher tail risk from AI than the others.

[Marco Van Basten]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

From the above, SAP isn’t really cheap, imo. I think the other stocks mentioned are. I own WDAY and CSU. ADBE is looking very interesting too, but I think they have higher tail risk from AI than the others.

Have you looked at TYL & MSFT?  Thank you.

[bargainman]

22 hours ago, brobro777 said:

 

ADBE 5 year return -33%

 

You may be right, worth a shot from here!

 

 

 

I asked Gemini to plot adbe's stock price vs quarterly earnings.  Here's what it gave me (blue is stock, red is earnings)

 

[brobro777]

13 hours ago, bargainman said:

 

I asked Gemini to plot adbe's stock price vs quarterly earnings.  Here's what it gave me (blue is stock, red is earnings)

 

 

Yea dude during the last 5 years the company bought tons of stock because the underlying business continues to be profitable and growing

 

I get the argument about AI killing creative jobs that require the use of ADBE stuff. But I get the feeling you're still going to need a lot of peons to sit there and grind out work product in these creative fields - using ADBE or any other software - and that all the projected efficiency gains from AI will be underwhelming

 

5 year performance for ADBE is like -33% vs 81% for SPX. Holy moly talk about hated by everybody even though the underlying business remains good

 

 

[Red Lion]

56 minutes ago, brobro777 said:

 

Yea dude during the last 5 years the company bought tons of stock because the underlying business continues to be profitable and growing

 

I get the argument about AI killing creative jobs that require the use of ADBE stuff. But I get the feeling you're still going to need a lot of peons to sit there and grind out work product in these creative fields - using ADBE or any other software - and that all the projected efficiency gains from AI will be underwhelming

 

5 year performance for ADBE is like -33% vs 81% for SPX. Holy moly talk about hated by everybody even though the underlying business remains good

 

 

 

 

This is the most detailed analysis I've seen you post before, I just can't decide whether this is bullish or bearish since you seem to do pretty damn good shooting from the hip! 

[villainx]

1 hour ago, brobro777 said:

5 year performance for ADBE is like -33% vs 81% for SPX.

could be indicator that it was over priced for awhile?

[Gregmal]

9 minutes ago, villainx said:

could be indicator that it was over priced for awhile?

lol pretty much why I’m a lousy tech investor and have little motivation with a lot of these. With tech, you almost always(as in, sans the special situation, if you wanted to be regularly investing in it) you need to buy overvalued stuff and have it keep executing. And if it does, the gains are stupid good. But if it doesn’t, there’s a lot of ways to get fucked on the rerate down from the standard 30-40x non GAAP ex SBC starting points.

[brobro777]

28 minutes ago, Red Lion said:

 

 

This is the most detailed analysis I've seen you post before, I just can't decide whether this is bullish or bearish since you seem to do pretty damn good shooting from the hip! 

 

Yea man I'm too dumb and lazy to do grinding hard work/analysis so I just try to absorb stuff over time and take shots when it feels okay, doing my best to free ride off other people's hard work. This is what has worked for me and with individual names I keep my positions small but with stock indexes, I have done well with much bigger shots - last year I even kinda surprised myself, going in with buy order for NQ at 16800 when the low was 16452 or something 

 

I'm probably flapping my gums about ADBE a little here because years ago I read about how they successfully transitioned to the subscription model for their software that I found impressive

 

 

[brobro777]

48 minutes ago, villainx said:

could be indicator that it was over priced for awhile?

 

Very good point

 

 

 

 

[Spooky]

17 hours ago, bargainman said:

 

I asked Gemini to plot adbe's stock price vs quarterly earnings.  Here's what it gave me (blue is stock, red is earnings)

 

 

How did you get Gemini to do this? It's telling me that it is still January 2025

[coffeecaninvestor]

1 hour ago, brobro777 said:

 

Very good point

 

 

 

 

Probably exaggerated in both directions.. 10% rev growth much of it recurring, 89% gross margins, 39% FCF margins, very little debt, 23% ROA, 37% ROIC, with a large buyback trading at 19x TTM EPS, 14x FCF does not seem right either. I am probably wrong since I've rarely owned software due to the high multiples, but that's why I don't hold a concentrated position. I think a lot of it is psychological and reactionary at this point. I think most large organizations are taking a slow measured approach to AI so I think ADBE mgmt will have time to combat the AI problem. 

[brobro777]

9 minutes ago, coffeecaninvestor said:

Probably exaggerated in both directions.. 10% rev growth much of it recurring, 89% gross margins, 39% FCF margins, very little debt, 23% ROA, 37% ROIC, with a large buyback trading at 19x TTM EPS, 14x FCF does not seem right either. I am probably wrong since I've rarely owned software due to the high multiples, but that's why I don't hold a concentrated position. I think a lot of it is psychological and reactionary at this point. I think most large organizations are taking a slow measured approach to AI so I think ADBE mgmt will have time to combat the AI problem. 

 

 

I think my personal bias is probably pushing me to ADBE. In June 2011 I bought MSFT for average cost of $24.26 but I sold that shit way too soon, making me feel like a dumbass, and I've been looking for a similar opportunity

 

I mean there are similarities: universally hated (for MSFT, Windows phone fail/Ballmer sux as CEO/Windows OS losing market share in 2011; for ADBE, all this AI stuff now); large established user base using their product as industry standard (for MSFT, MS Office/Windows; for ADBE, Creative cloud); great cash flow used to buy back shares; and stock underperformed vs index for many years

 

Boy back in 2011 I never thought Ballmer would own the Clippers one day...

 

 

[dealraker]

3 hours ago, Gregmal said:

lol pretty much why I’m a lousy tech investor and have little motivation with a lot of these. With tech, you almost always(as in, sans the special situation, if you wanted to be regularly investing in it) you need to buy overvalued stuff and have it keep executing. And if it does, the gains are stupid good. But if it doesn’t, there’s a lot of ways to get fucked on the rerate down from the standard 30-40x non GAAP ex SBC starting points.

Correct!