President-Elect Trump trades

[Buckeye]

7 minutes ago, Intelligent_Investor said:

Bitcoin is worthless, I can't eat bitcoin, I can't live in bitcoin, and I can't buy anything with bitcoin unless I am on the black market. The only way I can get cash for bitcoin is to hope someone pays me more than how much I paid for bitcoin and that the exchanges aren't scams like FTX. The exact same arguments used to ascribe value to bitcoin were used to ascribe value to tulip bulbs.

 Any Bitcoin holder that doesn’t recognize this is either too dumb to understand it or they are deceitful. Both are bad options. 

Edited November 12 by Buckeye

[Paarslaars]

Man you really are a true democrat, anyone who disagrees with you has to be either dumb or evil...

 

To anyone who wanted to discuss other trump trades: sorry I brought this one up.  

[Buckeye]

1 hour ago, Milu said:

I don't think most people should own bitcoin. If I could find suitable equity investment options my personal preference would be to be 100% stocks. I don't actually like holding non-income generating assets like gold or bitcoin which I fully agree with you are hard if not impossible to value. I've just always held a large cash balance in my portfolio (30-50%) due to never being able to find reasonably priced stocks, a 15 year upward march in markets will do that. As I've seen governments continue to print money since 2009 and then went crazy with the money printer in covid I just wanted to get some of my paper money out of cash and into harder assets. This didn't mean I was putting all of my cash into gold and bitcoin, but I did put a small portion in. I don't believe Saylor is the new Buffett but he is taking a unique high risk approach that could pay off big time if he's right or bankrupt him if he's wrong. Microstrategy isn't a ride I'm willing to go along for like some of the other posters. I'll keep my bitcoin holding which grew from about 2% of portfolio when I invested in 2020 to about 14% today as I have a very simple thesis that it has a decent chance of getting to a similar market cap as gold. Doesn't mean that it's guaranteed to happen and I wouldn't be recommending my family and friends to buy bitcoin.\

 

Hope that clarifies things a bit, you and James22 are obvioulsly on very different sides of things and perhaps some of the nuance is being lost.

Milu, you have certainly clarified your opinion, which is fine, but your use of *most* in the first sentence tells us all we need to know.  So you think *someone* should own it right?  Because you have to, don't you? If no one else owns it, then it ain't worth shit, is it?  Therefore you have a vested interest in other people owning it.  Am I wrong? 

[Luke]

17 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

 

YES!   You are 100% correct.  I couldn't agree more. I think the days of crony-capitalism/state-capitalism/corporatism are numbered.  There's another term for a system that has "private property and the profit motive as legitimate incentives for productivity—provided that they did not conflict with the interests of the state."  Free markets are not state-capitalism/government controlled markets.

No. I never said the days of state-capitalism are over. State-capitalism is the system that brought the world the prosperity it experiences and labor unions did their part too. Free markets lead to monopolization, landlorddization and parastic rent extracters that ruin growth and the overall economy. Something i have just read:

 

"A land reform law, inspired by the same one that the Americans were enacting in occupied Japan, removed the landlord class (similar to what happened in Japan), and created a higher number of peasants who, with the help of the state, increased the agricultural output dramatically. This was the first excedent accumulation source.

 

After retreating to Taiwan, Chiang learned from his mistakes and failures in the mainland and blamed them for failing to pursue Sun Yat-sen's ideals of Tridemism and welfarism. Chiang's land reform more than doubled the land ownership of Taiwanese farmers. It removed the rent burdens on them, with former land owners using the government compensation to become the new capitalist class. He promoted a mixed economy of state and private ownership with economic planning."

 

From the taiwan miracle economic growth. So landlords are not as useful as free marketeers would like you to believe and totally free markets with bitcoin as a currency will collapse.

[Luke]

But also: Based on the attention this topic attracts and the attention this thread gives, crypto trade/trump trade certainly is full on!! But its also this: a trade. Not an investment but a trade!

 

Good luck everyone and congrats to @james22 on making a shitton of cash in such a short amount of time. Make sure you know what you own and that you should sell the turds as long as someone is willing to give you that much for it

[Buckeye]

10 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

Man you really are a true democrat, anyone who disagrees with you has to be either dumb or evil...

 

To anyone who wanted to discuss other trump trades: sorry I brought this one up.  

Oh wow, look, Paar is back!  And instead of responding to my previous questions to him, he comes in and accuses me of being a true democrat, which I'm not, like that's some kind of insult.  I welcome disagreement, if I didn't, do you think I would have spent most of yesterday trying to understand this topic? And then you twist my words about people being evil?  I never said that.

 

Ok Paar, lets start over real quick.  I am sorry if you haven't kept up.

 

First question, do you own Bitcoin? 

Edited November 12 by Buckeye

[Buckeye]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Ugh this thread is in the shitter….

 

Bitcoin is like gold, worthless unless people ascribe value to it. There’s no intrinsic value. 
 

What I’ve seen my entire life, is the people whom have largely an academic or textbook investment framework, have a very hard time coming around to the idea that something that doesn’t have easy plug ins can be worth anything. It can be a Picasso, a 1952 Mickey Mantle, a Football Club, a piece of Land, a vintage sports car, etc, they struggle with and most ultimately just give up and slap some derogatory name on it and call it a day.
 

The truth being, most of those alt investments, have been and will continue to be, extremely lucrative, largely because they are both popular, and also neglected. You either get it, or you don’t. 

Thank you Greg for your post, I completely agree with most of what you have said.  Can you please help me understand something?  In your example, the owner of that 1952 Mikey Mantle has a financial incentive to get as many people as possible interested in that Mikey Mantle card, if they want it to go up in value, correct?  I will stop there to make sure we agree on that one.

 

Thanks!    

Edited November 12 by Buckeye

[rkbabang]

11 minutes ago, Luke said:

No. I never said the days of state-capitalism are over.

 

Hmm.   Lets go over this.  

 

In blue is what you said and then me agreeing with your statement.  In green part staring with the key words "I think" is my telling you why I agree with your statement.  I never said you agreed with the green part starting with "I think..."   Your reading comprehension skills appear to be severely lacking. 

 

32 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

54 minutes ago, Luke said:

You CAN NOT run state-capitalism with a currency that is limited in supply and with 0 control on that currency.

 

YES!   You are 100% correct.  I couldn't agree more. I think the days of crony-capitalism/state-capitalism/corporatism are numbered.  There's another term for a system that has "private property and the profit motive as legitimate incentives for productivity—provided that they did not conflict with the interests of the state."  Free markets are not state-capitalism/government controlled markets.

[Buckeye]

13 minutes ago, Luke said:

But also: Based on the attention this topic attracts and the attention this thread gives, crypto trade/trump trade certainly is full on!! But its also this: a trade. Not an investment but a trade!

 

Good luck everyone and congrats to @james22 on making a shitton of cash in such a short amount of time. Make sure you know what you own and that you should sell the turds as long as someone is willing to give you that much for it

  I am happy for anyone who owns Bitcoin and for anyone who has made a lot (or a little) money on it.  It has certainly been a great call for those of you who have owned it. Kudos to you.  I don't think you are evil and I don't think you should not own it.  That is not what I am trying to do here.

 

My issue is if you own Bitcoin, the only way for it to go up in value/price is for other people to own it too. Is this a correct statement?    

[Gregmal]

1 minute ago, Buckeye said:

Thank you Greg for your post, I completely agree with most of what you have said.  Can you please help me understand something?  In your example, the owner of that 1952 Mikey Mantle has a financial incentive to get as many people as possible interested in that Mikey Mantle card, if they want it to go up in value, correct?  I will stop there to make sure we agree on that one.

 

Thanks!    

I don’t know if that’s the right way to look at it. Personally, I would view having to do that as burdensome. Rather, I would try to look at whether there are existing headwinds or tailwinds in place that allow the supply and demand to work in your favor. The biggest driver of the Mickey Mantle is the prosperity of Boomers. Same as I’d expect say a 1999 graded Charizard to have a pretty solid next 20-40 years due to the coming of age and wealth of those whom were crazy about Pokemon as kids. 
 

Look at premier sports teams. It’s purely an income inequality/1%er growth bet. But it’s highly predictable. 
 

Think Bitcoin does have a lot of overlap with these sorts of things. 

[Buckeye]

1 minute ago, Gregmal said:

I don’t know if that’s the right way to look at it. Personally, I would view having to do that as burdensome. Rather, I would try to look at whether there are existing headwinds or tailwinds in place that allow the supply and demand to work in your favor. The biggest driver of the Mickey Mantle is the prosperity of Boomers. Same as I’d expect say a 1999 graded Charizard to have a pretty solid next 20-40 years due to the coming of age and wealth of those whom were crazy about Pokemon as kids. 
 

Look at premier sports teams. It’s purely an income inequality/1%er growth bet. But it’s highly predictable. 
 

Think Bitcoin does have a lot of overlap with these sorts of things. 

Ok Greg, maybe we shouldn't use metaphors, but please stay with me.  I promise I am not trying to depose you  Let me start over and hopefully you can help me understand this.

 

What causes (or will cause) Bitcoin to go up in price?  Honest question.

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, Luke said:

@John Hjorth By saying "its on me not you" that you dont understand bitcoin is unfortunately something many people say who do not invest in bitcoin and i think its very dangerous to say what you say. It gives possible buyers the delusion that bitcoin buyers are more intelligent than they are because its hard to understand (it is not).

 

Its not hard to understand, its bullshit. Thats what it is. Speak out when somebody speaks bullshit and dont say "i dont understand it so thats my problem"

 

1 hour ago, Buckeye said:

Hey Luke,

 

Thanks for your message. And you are totally correct. Not sure why I woke up so grumpy about this but at the end of the day, in my opinion, anyone who holds Bitcoin, and then discusses it with other people, are a paid spokesperson for Bitcoin. And those people are either two stupid to recognize it or too dishonest or deceitful to admit it. It’s maddening and they deserve to be called out for it. 
 

and then they try to say it’s the same thing as someone like Viking pounding the table on FRFHF. These idiots.

 

ha, hope you have a great day! 

 

 

@Luke,

 

It's not in any way fruitful, nor constructive, here, to try to manuduce anyone, - including me -,about personal circles of competence, which I am for my part very well aware of, and attentive to.

 

Were you in kindergarden or elementary school the first time I here on CoBF had an exchange with James [ @james22 ] here on CoBF about Berkshire ? 

 

[Back then, James was an oil bug working his a** of in the middle east, steadyly accumulating Berkshire shares, I'm confident James is doing well in his retirement by now in the US, alone because of that fact.

 

Being somewhat humble is a great hedge against appearing like a fool 'afterwards' /' in retrospect', I would say.

 

And now we are it, Luke [ @Luke ] :

 

The best is yet for you to come! [But you don't know it yet, and perhaps you don't understand it by now : 'An existence [ a beeing, a life] without clients!'

 

It's just so great!

 

The second boss I had in my work life after university once said to me : 'John, remember, that if we did not have all those cumbersome clients, we would have absolutely no problems! - None, what so ever! - But [- and here is the catch - ] we would also be on public welfare, and we would immedially default on our unpaid *booze* bills at <omitted>, right?'

Edited November 12 by John Hjorth

[Gregmal]

8 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

Ok Greg, maybe we shouldn't use metaphors, but please stay with me.  I promise I am not trying to depose you  Let me start over and hopefully you can help me understand this.

 

What causes (or will cause) Bitcoin to go up in price?  Honest question.

Same as everything, supply and demand imbalance. Look at the 15-45 demographic, digital adoption, how is it viewed by the 1%(whom are increasingly tech guys), what about its uses: what does it offer people as an alt? There’s a very good chance it will be viewed as digital gold. I still for the life of me have never understood the appeal of gold. Yet tons love it, ironically enough even, a ton of value investors lol.

[Buckeye]

Oh yea, and just to keep kicking this dead horse...after hearing all yesterday from the Ho's that Bitcoin is Currency, Bitcoin is Gold, Bitcoin is Friends and Family, Bitcoin is a Picasso Painting, Bitcoin is Babysitter Money....today we hear a new one....Bitcoin is like nothing else ever created!!  There are no comparisons.  Huh, so is all of those things or is it none of those things?  Or maybe each one of those things gives the person (or people) the "thing" they need (want) Bitcoin to be, so they can feel comfortable owning it.  Do you see what is happening here...it needs to be all of those things (or none of those things) to get each of those demographics in the boat.  Because at the end of the day the only thing that makes Bitcoin go up in value is getting more people in the boat.  (Unless I have that last point wrong?  But none of the Ho's have been able to confirm or deny that....which appears to be what they do.)

 

What these Ho's have done (are doing) is using terms like Gold, Friends, Picasso, to try attach meaning/value to their meaningless/valueless Coin.  They use these known terms, and sprinkle in some Nassim Taleb quotes and comparisons to Warren Buffet to give their Coin credibility and reputability, because by itself it has no credibility or reputability.  

 

Is this a misrepresentation?  If so, how?  Thank you.

Edited November 12 by Buckeye

[Xerxes]

35 minutes ago, Luke said:

But also: Based on the attention this topic attracts and the attention this thread gives, crypto trade/trump trade certainly is full on!! But its also this: a trade. Not an investment but a trade!

 

Good luck everyone and congrats to @james22 on making a shitton of cash in such a short amount of time. Make sure you know what you own and that you should sell the turds as long as someone is willing to give you that much for it

I don’t think James made a shit ton of cash. Rather the dollar devalued by a shitton in Bitcoin terms. 

[Buckeye]

Just now, Gregmal said:

Same as everything, supply and demand imbalance. Look at the 15-45 demographic, digital adoption, how is it viewed by the 1%(whom are increasingly tech guys), what about its uses: what does it offer people as an alt? There’s a very good chance it will be viewed as digital gold. I still for the life of me have never understood the appeal of gold. Yet tons love it, ironically enough even, a ton of value investors lol.

OK so do we all agree that the ONLY thing that makes Bitcoin go up in value is getting more people to adopt it?  I will stop here for now.  Just to make sure I understand this correctly.  Let's not talk about all of the things Bitcoin is like (for now).  Thank you!

 

[Gregmal]

Just now, Buckeye said:

OK so do we all agree that the ONLY thing that makes Bitcoin go up in value is getting more people to adopt it?  I will stop here for now.  Just to make sure I understand this correctly.  Let's not talk about all of the things Bitcoin is like (for now).  Thank you!

 

Exactly, if you don’t believe it will be more popular in 1/3/5/10 years from now there’s no point owning it. 

[gfp]

3 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

I don’t think James made a shit ton of cash. Rather the dollar devalued by a shitton in Bitcoin terms. 

 

Well I don't think the dollar devalued by 30% yesterday and I'm not even sure James owns any bitcoin.  

[Xerxes]

^^^^ nailed it didn’t I ?

 

[Buckeye]

2 hours ago, Vish_ram said:

 

Run a thought experiment where you go back in time 5000 years. You see in your kingdom Gold has been slowly introduced. The sharp buckeye calls it shitty metal due to its color. He rebukes it by saying it is too soft and useless. The Red guy is genuinely puzzled by the price and wonders how supply and demand affects it. 

 

The shitty coin despised by many is embraced by some die hards and call it Gold. They like the monetary aspect of it as the King was pushing more beads and diluting the purchasing power.  

 

Over time more and more people hoard it and it as a store of wealth. The increase in GDP/wealth of the kingdom got reflected into the price of the Gold (dont ask me how)

Ok Vish...welcome back!  So in your example above Bitcoin which has been around for 15 years is just like Gold which has been around for 5000 years (except for the difference of 4985 years).  And you didn't mention that Gold does have some utility, but we won't go down that path, beacuse I am sure once James finds another link we will learn that Bitcoin can now be used to fill cavities.

 

Or, are you comparing the Bitcoin and Gold to say that in 4985 years from now everyone will realize Bitcoin's true, and they will still talk about poorest man who ever lived...Old Buckeye from 2024. 

 

I look forward to hearing your reply.  Thank you. 

[Buckeye]

10 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Exactly, if you don’t believe it will be more popular in 1/3/5/10 years from now there’s no point owning it. 

Ok great, phew, I am pleased to hear that you agree with me there.  

 

Next question (I am sorry if I am being obtuse, it is not my intention), please stick with me.

 

Ok, so if someone owns Bitcoin, and they want it to go up in price (which I assume they would), they would have a vested interest in making it more popular (or getting more people to adopt it), correct?  I'll stop here for now.  Thank you Greg.

[thowed]

3 hours ago, james22 said:

 

Consider investing in bitcoin like Pascal's Wager.

 

Erm, isn't the whole point of that, that you don't have to put up any 'collateral' for it, so it doesn't matter if you're wrong?

[Milu]

49 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

Milu, you have certainly clarified your opinion, which is fine, but your use of *most* in the first sentence tells us all we need to know.  So you think *someone* should own it right?  Because you have to, don't you? If no one else owns it, then it ain't worth shit, is it?  Therefore you have a vested interest in other people owning it.  Am I wrong? 

To answer your questions,

 

So you think *someone* should own it right?

Yes I think *some* people should own it, ideally somebody who already has the basics right (6 month rainy day fund, sizeable portfolio of high quality stocks or index funds, mostly stable job etc) then if they have a tolerance for some volatility then maybe they could allocate a small percentage to it.

 

If no one else owns it, then it ain't worth shit, is it?

Correct

 

Therefore you have a vested interest in other people owning it.  Am I wrong?

Yes the price of bitcoin will most likley continue to increase as more and more institutions and individuals adopt it, that's the bet I am making, but as an individual I don't need to 'sell any vision' nor would that have any influence on future adoption. The massive financial institutions like Blackrock, Fidelity etc have their million dollar marketing teams looking after that, an anonymous poster on a chat forum like myself isn't gonna influence much.

 

Hope that helps  

 

 

[thowed]

BTW - everything (well, most of it) about this thread feels like the sort of sh1tposting nonsense I'd expect now that Trump's back.  JFC. (I'm not a Democrat, before anyone starts, just anti-idiot).

[Buckeye]

1 hour ago, Milu said:

To answer your questions,

 

So you think *someone* should own it right?

Yes I think *some* people should own it, ideally somebody who already has the basics right (6 month rainy day fund, sizeable portfolio of high quality stocks or index funds, mostly stable job etc) then if they have a tolerance for some volatility then maybe they could allocate a small percentage to it.

 

If no one else owns it, then it ain't worth shit, is it?

Correct

 

Therefore you have a vested interest in other people owning it.  Am I wrong?

Yes the price of bitcoin will most likley continue to increase as more and more institutions and individuals adopt it, that's the bet I am making, but as an individual I don't need to 'sell any vision' nor would that have any influence on future adoption. The massive financial institutions like Blackrock, Fidelity etc have their million dollar marketing teams looking after that, an anonymous poster on a chat forum like myself isn't gonna influence much.

 

Hope that helps  

 

 

Ok Milu, thank you for your thoughtful reply.  I appreciate it.  It sounds like I am understanding things so far and we are on the same page.  Now...lets switch gears ever so slightly...Let's talk about Fairfax...What causes Fairfax's price (or value, I will need to be careful here) to go up?...Is it getting more people to buy it/adopt it?...I would say sure, that's ONE way for it to go up.  But I would also say that there are a lot of other factors that would/could cause its price/value to increase, things like dividends from their investments, profitable underwriting, coupon payments from their bonds, sale of stocks, buybacks...etc.  A shareholder's returns in FRFHF come from FRFHF versus a Bitcoiner's returns come from someone like Buckeye, if they buy it, or maybe Buckeye's Grandma.  One day soon Grammy!  I know you've been around for for 88 years and never needed Bitcoin, but you are going to need it one day, according to James.

 

And that difference is what is weird to me.  That's all  

Edited November 12 by Buckeye