President-Elect Trump trades

[Blake Hampton]

Trump committed fraud, plain and simple. He mismarked assets so that his company could get better financing terms from Banks. He got caught, was fined $450 million, and what did ole' Donny boy do to save his own ass? He issued equity in a nearly worthless meme stock to raise money.

But you guys are probably right. This case, including the multiple other cases that were all presided over by different judges and juries, are all total frauds. Our entire judicial system is a sham overseen by the ghost of Stalin himself.

Trump is a moron. I almost certain his ass is gonna cause a financial crisis during the next four years, and the funny thing is he doesn't understand the economic dynamics of which he is now involved. It will be interesting none-the-less.

[mcliu]

What’s the case for btc vs gold or btc vs gold-backed crypto?

[Blake Hampton]

All this talk is almost certainly pointless because it seems everyone here is solidified in their own beliefs.

It makes me sad that Buffett is as old as he is. This country needs a financial lighthouse now more than ever, but would they even listen?

[cubsfan]

39 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

 

Damn the water's getting muddy isn't it?  Jump on in Buckeye!  No one is saying anything about Kamala, she lost.  Why are you bringing her up?  I have never said anything about anyone being nice or not nice.  And no one here said anything about Trump being Hitler, except you brought it up.  And since you appear to like that subject, his current VP-elect (see I added elect, thank you James!) JD Vance did say “I go back and forth between thinking Trump is a cynical asshole like Nixon who wouldn’t be that bad (and might even prove useful) or that he’s America’s Hitler. How’s that for discouraging?”  In JD's defense he did say "America's Hitler," which I assume would be different than Germany's Hitler.  But whatever, Trump is not Hitler IMO, he's Trump!  (I mean President-Elect Trump!  Thank you James.)

 

So you think me asking Red (who still hasn't answered my question, and it's clear that he never will), "Do you think Donald Trump follows the law?" Is in your words, me "asking this question as if Trump has murdered people?"  Ok Greg, thank you for helping re-frame my question.  I guess that's how you're reading my question.

 

Is it getting hot in here? 

 

What you don't mention is that many, many people have changed their mind on Trump. JD Vance is on the top of that list - he said he was wrong all along. 

 

Cut it anyway you want, the people have spoke: Trump, warts and all, is their leader by a large majority.  Hispanics, Blacks, women, college kids/young adults - all those groups that supposedly didn't support the man, came out in droves and voted him in.  He's not perfect - but Americans know what to expect from him. They are totally sick of racism, gender garbage,  identity politics, etc - they look forward to just being America for everyone again.

[james22]

3 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

It makes me sad that Buffett is as old as he is. This country needs a financial lighthouse now more than ever, but would they even listen?

 

Oh, there is. You just don't recognize him yet.

 

His name is Michael Saylor.

[Junior R]

Microsoft has investment in OpenAI...Elon has person issues with OpenAi..How do you think Trump plays a role in this?

[Buckeye]

52 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Im just trying to get to the root of what youre debating. Are you saying someone who believes in some of the things mentioned above(low taxes, minimal government, responsible immigration) shouldn't vote for Trump? Are you saying to only pay attention to labels validated by the establishment, ie felon, convicted, or even "your honor"? 

 

Im fine explaining how I tend to arrive at things, but sometimes, especially with certain topics it seems like its never ending explanations that dont ultimately indicate there was a valid purpose to the question being asked. Almost a never ending deposition...such thats why I ask, ok if you dont like a candidate, where is your cut off, what are your parameters for drawing that cutoff line, and how to you square that with then helping or siding with people who are running on things diametrically opposed to you? Liz Cheney, I get it, she and her family have been huge beneficiaries of the current political establishment, and hates Trump for the threat he poses to it. Kamala is her kind. Dubya is her kind. The status quo is her kind. But the average voter? Probably not aligned with Ms Cheney. 

Greg, I apologize if you think I am giving you the run around, that was never my intent.  I had posed some questions/thoughts to another member and you jumped in to respond to me.  With all due respect, I never asked you to respond to my question, but you did.  And then we've had a few back and forths and now you are making me feel like a turd who is just stringing you along.  Ok.

 

My entrance into this thread was after I read Red's (ha red red's) post jumping on Deal for thinking that it was "OK to encourage illegals" (Red's words in Deal's mouth), which from my reading seemed like an inaccurate portrayal of Deal's post.  Red then continued to extol the virtues about following the law.  He was adamant about it.  And I agree with him, and believe everyone should follow the law. 

 

So that prompted me to ask, because this is the Trump trade thread, Red, "Do you think Trump follows the law?"  That was it! That was my only question.  That's all I wanted to know.  My answer to that question (which to me seems like a fairly straight forward question), if anyone cares, would be the No, I do not think that Donald Trump follows the law.  See how easy that was?

 

But instead of Red answering my question, you reply to me and start talking about Kamala, Biden, Clinton, Cheney, Hitler, "The Media".  And then you tell me that I am deposing you.  Ok Greg.  Please do not feel the need to respond. 

Edited November 12 by Buckeye

[Sweet]

5 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Trump committed fraud, plain and simple. He mismarked assets so that his company could get better financing terms from Banks. He got caught, was fined $450 million, and what did ole' Donny boy do to save his own ass? He issued equity in a nearly worthless meme stock to raise money.

But you guys are probably right. This case, including the multiple other cases that were all presided over by different judges and juries, are all total frauds. Our entire judicial system is a sham overseen by the ghost of Stalin himself.

Trump is a moron. I almost certain his ass is gonna cause a financial crisis during the next four years, and the funny thing is he doesn't understand the economic dynamics of which he is now involved. It will be interesting none-the-less.

Give me a break.

 

Have you ever meet anyone in retail who doesn’t try to inflate their real estate asset prices when negotiating sales or financing deals?

 

Don’t take my word for it:

 

[Gregmal]

2 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

Greg, I apologize if you think I am giving you the run around, that was never my intent.  I had posed some questions/thoughts to another member and you jumped in to respond to me.  With all due respect, I never asked you to respond to my question, but you did.  And then we've had a few back and forths and now you are making me feel like a turd who is just stringing you along.  Ok.

 

My entrance into this thread was after I read Red's (ha red red's) post jumping on Deal for thinking that it was "OK to encourage illegals (Red's words in Deal's mouth), which from my reading seemed like an inaccurate portrayal of Deal's post.  Red then continued to extol the virtues about following the law.  He was adamant about it.  And I agree with him, and believe everyone should follow the law. 

 

So that prompted me to ask, because this is the Trump trade thread, Red, "Do you think Trump follows the law?"  That was it! That was my only question.  That's all I wanted to know.  My answer to that question (which to me seems like a fairly straight forwarded question), if anyone cares, would be the No, I do not think that Donald Trump follows the law.  See how easy that was?

 

But instead of Red answering my question, you reply to me and start talking about Kamala, Biden, Clinton, Cheney, Hitler, "The Media".  And then you tell me that I am deposing you.  Ok Greg.  Please do not feel the need to respond. 

Haha all good, no worries. It’s the internet and context always gets misconstrued. I have tried to back off these issues because 1) they’re often pointless and 2) I don’t care nearly as much as it seems in terms of the effort I put in sometimes.

 

I mainly hope to understand the different perspectives driving politics today because it seems so many things other than politics and policy have become what actually gathers votes, which is interesting to me,

[Gregmal]

16 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Trump committed fraud, plain and simple. He mismarked assets so that his company could get better financing terms from Banks. He got caught, was fined $450 million, and what did ole' Donny boy do to save his own ass? He issued equity in a nearly worthless meme stock to raise money.

But you guys are probably right. This case, including the multiple other cases that were all presided over by different judges and juries, are all total frauds. Our entire judicial system is a sham overseen by the ghost of Stalin himself.

Trump is a moron. I almost certain his ass is gonna cause a financial crisis during the next four years, and the funny thing is he doesn't understand the economic dynamics of which he is now involved. It will be interesting none-the-less.

Has there ever been a market forecast that you haven’t thought was super bearish? You’ve been saying the same thing for years under The Big Guy too.

[dealraker]

Back on topic:

 

The tax free account that I radically changed in Aug-Oct 2023 and put into 5 stocks has been liquidated, it is all cash.

 

NSC bought at $188 - sold at $274

WTW bought at $196 - sold at $319 

GD bought at $221 - sold at $312

RTX bought at $75 - sold at $122

LHX bought at $173 - sold at $261

 

I've become a day trader LOL!  

 

All "Trump umph" sales and also not meaningful to my overall picture.   Already owned all those stocks in other accounts and didn't necessarily want more, just bought more when prices weakened.  Part of the source of funds to buy the 5 above, about 1/6th or so was from selling Progressive --- which has doubled since I sold it!  Brains galore!  And another about 1/6th was from selling Old Dominion which has gone up about 80%.  Brains again!   But the rest of what I sold to buy the 5 stocks has not appreciated so overall, at least so far, this was a good decision.  

 

All this moving around in the tax free account was really my wife Angela's suggestion..."You are nothing but stale bread Charlie....do something to get yourself alive again."  And so I did.  

[Vish_ram]

1 hour ago, 73 Reds said:

But that can be said for anything - how do you know the price is reasonable?

We’re in price discovery mode.

Given Golds inadequacies vis a vis BTC, it should be valued above Gold.

[Buckeye]

1 hour ago, james22 said:

And I mean it when I say you should care.

 

Even those pounding the table for Fairfax or Joe wouldn't argue they might be life-changing investments.

 

Unless you are convinced there's ZERO chance of bitcoin becoming a recognized asset class, you should invest some time studying it.

 

Because if it does, it will be life-changing.

 

 

I care James, I care a lot.  That's why I've spent most of my day replying to this thread with no financial incentive.   You have a financial incentive, that has been my only point/question.  I posed a simple question...Is the only thing that makes Bitcoin go up, getting more people to adopt it?  And if the answer is yes (which I'm not really sure I ever got an answer..another too hard question apparently?), then anyone who owns it and want's it to go up has a financial incentive to get other people to adopt it, buy it store it.  That's all I was trying to ask/clarify.

 

And instead I got Bitcoin is Currency, Bitcoin is Gold, Bitcoin is Friends and Family, Bitcoin is Picasso, Bitcoin is the Most Powerful Computer, and Bitcoin can pay Babysitters (I think that one was my favorite). 

 

And then Paar joined the convo to slam everyone who posts in the Investment section saying that anyone who is long a stock and posts about it in the Investment thread, is doing the same thing as anyone who is long Bitcoin and who posts about.  And I said, well, as I understand things that's a false statement.  I've pressed him on it (I think twice now) and he doesn't respond.  Or he does respond and say "FRFH buying back it's own shares is the same thing as some Whale (his words not mine) buying a huge chunk of Bitcoin.  What?!? So Paars doesn't understand the difference between outside capital and internal capital? 

 

Do you see what has happened here?  It's the classic ball under the blanket.

Edited November 12 by Buckeye

[Gregmal]

4 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Back on topic:

 

The tax free account that I radically changed in Aug-Oct 2023 and put into 5 stocks has been liquidated, it is all cash.

 

NSC bought at $188 - sold at $274

WTW bought at $196 - sold at $319 

GD bought at $221 - sold at $312

RTX bought at $75 - sold at $122

LHX bought at $173 - sold at $261

 

I've become a day trader LOL!  

 

All "Trump umph" sales and also not meaningful to my overall picture.   Already owned all those stocks in other accounts and didn't necessarily want more, just bought more when prices weakened.  Part of the source of funds to buy the 5 above, about 1/6th or so was from selling Progressive --- which has doubled since I sold it!  Brains galore!  And another about 1/6th was from selling Old Dominion which has gone up about 80%.  Brains again!   But the rest of what I sold to buy the 5 stocks has not appreciated so overall, at least so far, this was a good decision.  

 

All this moving around in the tax free account was really my wife Angela's suggestion..."You are nothing but stale bread Charlie....do something to get yourself alive again."  And so I did.  

You should start a newsletter lol. I bet Tilson “the Prophet” could use a new marketing angle at Stansburry Research. “The Wizard of North Carolina”!

[dealraker]

4 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

You should start a newsletter lol. I bet Tilson “the Prophet” could use a new marketing angle at Stansburry Research. “The Wizard of North Carolina”!

I'd have to hire Spek to co-author Greg 'cause 3 of them buys were his prompts!

Edited November 12 by dealraker

[Buckeye]

15 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Haha all good, no worries. It’s the internet and context always gets misconstrued. I have tried to back off these issues because 1) they’re often pointless and 2) I don’t care nearly as much as it seems in terms of the effort I put in sometimes.

 

I mainly hope to understand the different perspectives driving politics today because it seems so many things other than politics and policy have become what actually gathers votes, which is interesting to me,

Thank you Greg, I hold you in such high regards! No sarcasm there.  You have taught me so much on this forum and your ability to see through the crap is incredible. 

 

I am not here to try to change anyone's beliefs, but my own. Thanks again! 

[Vish_ram]

12 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

Is the only thing that makes Bitcoin go up, getting more people to adopt it?  And if the answer is yes (which I'm not really sure I ever got an answer..another too hard question apparently?), then anyone who owns it and want's it to go up has a financial incentive to get other people to adopt it, buy it store it.  That's all I was trying to ask/clarify.

Yes, yes. 
 

cyberphunks orange pilled early adopters, then came elite valley guys, then more retail, more venture capitalists, finally Blackrock, Saylor etc.

 

Now they’re forcing down the throat of US Govt, corp, and everyday folks. 
it’ll be relentless and will continue until Fiat is relegated. 

 

it is a virus. You can run but can’t hide.

[Buckeye]

47 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

What you don't mention is that many, many people have changed their mind on Trump. JD Vance is on the top of that list - he said he was wrong all along. 

 

Cut it anyway you want, the people have spoke: Trump, warts and all, is their leader by a large majority.  Hispanics, Blacks, women, college kids/young adults - all those groups that supposedly didn't support the man, came out in droves and voted him in.  He's not perfect - but Americans know what to expect from him. They are totally sick of racism, gender garbage,  identity politics, etc - they look forward to just being America for everyone again.

Wait Cubs is back and now he’s telling me about the things that I didn’t mention?!? There are millions of things that I didn’t mention Cubs.  I am sorry I didn’t know that I have to mention all of the things I didn’t mention too! Whew this is going to be a long night

[Gregmal]

2 hours ago, Paarslaars said:

 

Mmm I look at this from an outsider but that was not how I experienced Obama vs Romney.

I thought, compared to the last 3 elections, that one was actually quite civil and polite.

To me it looked like Romney lost because there was not a single thing I can remember he actually stood for... Obama had a few things going for him, he also had class in the way he carried himself. 

 

I would even argue that using a smear campaign instead of running on facts, is what cost Hilary the election. She lost her own voters in the process of trying to make Trump lose his.

Obama was such an elegant and inspiring speaker. His first campaign was run to perfection. Halfway through his first term though, he started running into issues getting stuff passed and in order to try to get things done, began resorting to this sorta “anyone who disagrees with me does so because they’re racist” crap. The rest is history. 

[james22]

23 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

I posed a simple question...Is the only thing that makes Bitcoin go up, getting more people to adopt it?  And if the answer is yes (which I'm not really sure I ever got an answer..another too hard question apparently?), then anyone who owns it and want's it to go up has a financial incentive to get other people to adopt it, buy it store it.  That's all I was trying to ask/clarify.

 

You conflate two things, Buckeye. What makes Bitcoin go up is its adoption, yes. But its adoption is driven by its being of higher long-term value compared to other assets, not because those who own it "get" more people to adopt it.

 

6 hours ago, james22 said:

If given the choice of what money to accept, people will accept the money they believe to be of highest long-term value, and not accept what they believe to be of low long-term value. If not given the choice and required to accept all money, good and bad, they will tend to keep the money of greater perceived value in their own possession and pass the bad money to others.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gresham's_law

 

Where's the payment?

 

Like I said:

 

3 hours ago, james22 said:

Bitcoin adoption will happen.

 

And it won't be because of any table pounding of mine.

 

Now, do I benefit from faster adoption? Sure.

 

But I've ZERO efficacy. No one I convince here will move the needle.

 

The needle will be moved by nation-states and institutions.

 

I can only repeat that we're early. 

 

Hopefully that might benefit someone here.

 

As I benefit from pushback.

[Buckeye]

29 minutes ago, dealraker said:

I'd have to hire Spek to co-author Greg 'cause 3 of them buys were his prompts!

I’d subscribe! 

[Buckeye]

19 minutes ago, Vish_ram said:

Yes, yes. 
 

cyberphunks orange pilled early adopters, then came elite valley guys, then more retail, more venture capitalists, finally Blackrock, Saylor etc.

 

Now they’re forcing down the throat of US Govt, corp, and everyday folks. 
it’ll be relentless and will continue until Fiat is relegated. 

 

it is a virus. You can run but can’t hide.

Wow never really thought about it like that! I really like this. Thank you Vish! 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 hour ago, LC said:

Let's invert - if BTC collapses in 10 years, what would be the reason?

Would you still want to own it? 

 

I suppose it depends on what you mean by "collapse". I've held it through the last two 75% crashes in 2020 and again in 2022. Held and added. 

 

Not sure if that answers your question, but also not sure what you mean by collapse to have a better one. 

 

1 hour ago, mcliu said:

What’s the case for btc vs gold or btc vs gold-backed crypto?

 

BTC will do to gold what gold did to silver. It will de-monetize it. It doesn't mean gold is going to zero - it means BTC will eat it's monetary premium and gold will be more akin to silver (perhaps the historical relationship of gold and silver will re-assert itself now that they're both in equal footing as non-monetary assets). I also believe BTC is eating the monetary premiums of fiat currencies around the world. 

 

 

 

I'm happy to answer DMs on this from those with genuine interest, or take it to the crypto thread, but at this point I think we're derailing the thread and making it harder for other more-related conversations to occur

Edited November 12 by TwoCitiesCapital

[Blake Hampton]

On 11/11/2024 at 5:49 PM, Gregmal said:

Has there ever been a market forecast that you haven’t thought was super bearish? You’ve been saying the same thing for years under The Big Guy too.

I am super bearish.

The current financial state of our country points directly toward large inflationary pressure in the future. Given that one of our central bank's primary objectives is price stability, it's highly likely that interest rate increases will follow. Potential effects from such a scenario:

- Substantially higher interest expenses across the board, as everyone has to refinance old debt issued during ZIRP
- Increased government interest expenses, which will almost certainly lead to large changes surrounding both taxation and spending policies
- A higher discount rate for assets

 

In 1977, Buffett wrote about how equities had historically delivered a mean return on book value of roughly 12%. While this figure may be a bit outdated, I still believe it holds relevance. The tremendous increases in ROE we’ve seen in recent years, have largely been driven by historically low debt costs and corporate tax expenses. I believe the market now is more expensive than it was in 1999, and imagine how long a dotcom recovery would have taken if the whole system hadn't been geared toward equity owners. Currently, the S&P 500's P/B and TTM ROE is 5.3x and 17.2% respectively. Remember, this is everyone's retirement account.

 

Buffett is clearly fortifying. He holds essentially no fixed-income, more than half of his portfolio is cash, and the rest is equities. History has shown that assets can experience large price decreases sustained over many years. Inflation included, it could be worse.

The last two major financial crises in 2008 and 2020 were both catastrophic, potentially Great Depression level events, where the U.S. government had to step in in to save everybody's ass. My concern is that our past savior might be the source of the next crisis.

Edited November 18 by Blake Hampton

[Ulti]

1 hour ago, dealraker said:

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

 

I'd have to hire Spek to co-author Greg 'cause 3 of them buys were his prompts!

And actually deal … you should at least have an honorable mention … up 130% on ewbc and I have been  lightening …