The coming electricity crisis - $ impact

[Value_Added]

19 hours ago, JRM said:

 

In the United States nuclear power plants do not load follow.  It is not allowed.  They operate all or nothing.  They may operate at reduced capacity due to maintenance limitations, but they are generally operating at 100% output. 

This isn’t entirely accurate.  Constellation (previously Exelon) changed reactor power depending on grid conditions at plants that were money losing due to negative power prices.  They no longer do this since the state and federal subsidies covers their costs but is is certainly allowed. 
 

https://www.nice-future.org/docs/nicefuturelibraries/default-document-library/exelon.pdf

[JRM]

2 hours ago, Value_Added said:

This isn’t entirely accurate.  Constellation (previously Exelon) changed reactor power depending on grid conditions at plants that were money losing due to negative power prices.  They no longer do this since the state and federal subsidies covers their costs but is is certainly allowed. 
 

https://www.nice-future.org/docs/nicefuturelibraries/default-document-library/exelon.pdf

That's different.  The nuclear power plants absolutely respond to the grid operators (and always have), but it's the reactor operators moving the power level rather than the turbine and generator automatically adjusting to load changes on the grid.  Big difference!  In my experience this situation was fairly rare, but I didn't operate in a de-regulated market like most of Exelon plants.

 

From your citation: "The site receives the signal on a computer in
the Main Control Room, operators confirm the dispatch signal with the Constellation Generation
Dispatcher, and then a Nuclear Regulatory Commission-licensed Senior Reactor Operator at the
site authorizes the load reduction. Reduced power is maintained until a dispatch signal to raise
load is received."

Edited June 21 by JRM

[sholland]

I agree with JRM. Day-ahead scheduling is not load following. Nuclear reactors need to operate at a steady state because of Xenon poisoning. 
 

 

[bargainman]

 

Worth watching these projections.  I don't know if he gets into the grid transmission issue, but if current cost curve reductions continue it's going to be pretty wild.

 

 

Edited July 29 by bargainman

[nsx5200]

Cost reduction have already tapered off.  The big chunk happened when China got into it a couple decades ago, and lowered the panel cost significantly.  It's still a slow grind to get cheaper energy, and we've got to keep an eye on this AI+bitcoin energy suckers as well.  Like Charlie, I wouldn't mind if the government bans bitcoin mining.  At least AI is actually useful.

 

https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/how-has-the-price-and-efficiency-of-solar-panels-changed-over-time

 

 

[Fly]

10 hours ago, nsx5200 said:

Cost reduction have already tapered off.  The big chunk happened when China got into it a couple decades ago, and lowered the panel cost significantly.  It's still a slow grind to get cheaper energy, and we've got to keep an eye on this AI+bitcoin energy suckers as well.  Like Charlie, I wouldn't mind if the government bans bitcoin mining.  At least AI is actually useful.

 

https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/how-has-the-price-and-efficiency-of-solar-panels-changed-over-time

 

 

 

Bitcoin is a buyer of last resort and no miner can survive paying prices that you and I pay at the wall in our homes. The only miners that survive are those who can get the absolute cheapest energy, and which energy is that? Energy nobody else wants, i.e. it is stranded far from population/grid access or there is a surplus of energy being produced when compared with demand. 

 

Now look at AI server farms. Sure, they want low costs to help the bottom line, but when push comes to shove big tech has incredibly deep pockets and will pay whatever it takes for energy to train their models and get a leg up on competition. The AI server farm does not lose viability at $.08/kWh like BTC mining does. 

 

AI servers are far more destructive to energy costs vs BTC mining. BTC mining helps stabilize and subsidize the grid when it becomes uneconomic to sell to home users.

 

BTC mining profitability (enter $0.17kWh for average US price):

https://minerstat.com/algorithm/sha-256/profitability

 

Average US energy prices:

https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/data/averageenergyprices_selectedareas_table.htm

Edited July 28 by Fly

[fareastwarriors]

Beautiful boxes  

 

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

41 minutes ago, Fly said:

 

Bitcoin is a buyer of last resort and no miner can survive paying prices that you and I pay at the wall in our homes. The only miners that survive are those who can get the absolute cheapest energy, and which energy is that? Energy nobody else wants, i.e. it is stranded far from population/grid access or there is a surplus of energy being produced when compared with demand. 

 

Now look at AI server farms. Sure, they want low costs to help the bottom line, but when push comes to shove big tech has incredibly deep pockets and will pay whatever it takes for energy to train their models and get a leg up on competition. The AI server farm does not lose viability at $.08/kWh like BTC mining does. 

 

AI servers are far more destructive to energy costs vs BTC mining. BTC mining helps stabilize and subsidize the grid when it becomes uneconomic to sell to home users.

 

BTC mining profitability (enter $0.17kWh for average US price):

https://minerstat.com/algorithm/sha-256/profitability

 

Average US energy prices:

https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/data/averageenergyprices_selectedareas_table.htm

+1

 

There are way more frivolous uses of electricity going on, at scale, every day like having your A/C at home while at work. I personally think the electricity used to support the only sound money system in existence is well worthwhile. 

 

But it's not really up to me, or the government, or Munger, or anyone else to decide which uses cases of electricity are meaningful. It is up to those paying the prices to use it which is why I don't b*tch at the neighbors in my neighborhood for "wasting" electricity to make their properties gawdy every Christmas. 

[nsx5200]

On 7/28/2024 at 12:10 PM, Fly said:

Bitcoin is a buyer of last resort and no miner can survive paying prices that you and I pay at the wall in our homes.

 

Bitcoin mining in the states is exploiting a loophole in the uniform billing of electricity in many parts of the states.  In other places, where they have time-of-use (TOU), electricity price changes with the supply-demand, so it's actually worth while to shift energy usage towards the cheaper (less demand) part of the day.  Many places in the States have fixed pricing that do not change, and only get adjusted periodically, allowing bitcoin miners to leverage the average of the total demand (including the portion that's outside of bitcoin mining), and essentially spread the actual electricity cost to the whole market.  This allows for absurd situations like this one:

"Bitcoin mines cash in on electricity — by devouring it, selling it, even turning it off — and they cause immense pollution. In many cases, the public pays a price."

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/09/business/bitcoin-mining-electricity-pollution.html

 

Your premise that bitcoin mining runs off unwanted electricity is mostly false.  If I wanted to transact on the bitcoin network, would I put up waiting for several hours until the electricity demand has died down for the transaction to go through?  The answer is obviously no.  To provide a near real-time network, bitcoin network must consume electricity, no matter what the aggregate electricity demand is.

 

Even if there are spare electricity, there are better ways of utilizing it.  Storing it would be the best, but plenty of stuff can utilize spare electricity like hydrogen production.

 

Yes, there are plenty of waste in the system already, but adding in one more unnecessary waste that has no added benefit to society/human kind really doesn't help advance humanity.

[james22]

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 hour ago, james22 said:

 

Sounds like what you'd say if you didn't have a plan for the coming electricity shortage...

[JRM]

12 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

Sounds like what you'd say if you didn't have a plan for the coming electricity shortage...

 

It's very simple.  Natural gas.

[james22]

More simple: don't hate the producers.