Iran - Israel - Gaza Conflict

[John Hjorth]

3 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

... Ask yourself what might happen if the fanatical KKK ideology made a resurgence in America.

I would hope at some point, American's would destroy the movement as something they could not live with - no compromise.

 

This.

[cubsfan]

1 minute ago, Castanza said:

 

Which one is most favorable?

 

Yeah, sounds nice, but kicking the can down the road has been tried for 50 years.

 

The Palestinians already have Gaza and the West Bank - and they are not entitled to Israel.

They just need to decide they want to be good neighbors and not Iran's proxy.

[73 Reds]

1 minute ago, cubsfan said:

 

Yeah, sounds nice, but kicking the can down the road has been tried for 50 years.

 

The Palestinians already have Gaza and the West Bank - and they are not entitled to Israel.

They just need to decide they want to be good neighbors and not Iran's proxy.

So do we go to the source, and if so, exactly what happens to Iran?

[cubsfan]

You're seeing a delayed reaction to the assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran.

 

Iran is now acutely aware that leadership can be taken out by their own citizens that hate the regime.

Even worse, 2 members of the republican guard betrayed them and planted the bombs for Israel.

 

Israel has sent their message loud and clear. And now the Iranians are trying to gauge the blowback of any attack they launch on Israel. Who, of our leadership, will they reach out and kill?

 

Even worse: 6 months from now - if Trump wins - Iran is royally screwed - as they won't have Biden or Anthony Blinken actively trying to sabotage the Israeli government.

Edited August 20 by cubsfan

[Xerxes]

21 minutes ago, Castanza said:

@Xerxes

 

Who has claim to the land of Israel and why?

 

Nationalism exists everywhere. Some nationalism in some places has much closer ties to religion than others. 
 

In Islamic nations the religion IS the culture and it drives the nationalism. In Western nations religion exists under a culture secondary to nationalism. I think Dinar is trying to highlight the concern with Islam nations. They have a religion that drives culture, policy, and nationalism which if followed does not allow for mutual existence with non Islamic nations long term. Perhaps not a conversation for this forum. You could probably make this same argument for the Judaism as well but I’m less certain on their cohabitation approach. I don’t think the Torah (Old Testament) calls for destruction of everyone else. 

what Dinar is referring to is the expansionary Islam under the Unmayyed, the subsequent caliphate all the way to the Ottoman era. He is not wrong. In fact, we (Persians) were victims of the Arabs. but then again  others were victims of Persians under Sassanids and Achemedians (pre-Islamic) and many centuries thereafter. So, Persians, cannot play the victim card when the Arabs came after them.  
 

Zoroastrian Persian force converted Christian Armeanians etc. That is just part of history. My Zoroastrian ancestors were not cute bunnies. They just happened to succumb to a bigger foe, Islam. Good news is that our new year celebration is still based on the Zoroastrian tradition. 
 

But how is any of this any different than the expansionary Spanish, or the Muscovites etc. or the Portuguese. Or any other form of colonialism from wherever. Sure those were perhaps not driven explicitly by the Bible or other holy books, but does that matter to the victims ? 
 

Going back to Islamic world, Dinar view is not the fully correct. I can point to many wars of expansion that were 100% nationalist-based and nothing to do with spread of Islam. Easy example is Nadir Shah, the Timurids, etc. 
 

Even in today’ modern Iran, the slogans maybe religious base, but it is NOT a coincidence that the Iranians are fighting in Mesopotamia and Levant for influence, as they did against the Ottomans and as they did against the Romans. That goes back to their imperial past, just happens to be repackaged differently, given the current supply/demand dynamics of useful idiots.  
 

On Israel, I think almost all the wars between Israel and its Arabs foes were and are nationalistic since 1948. And only in very recently, it has taken a religious tilt with radical Islam, but then again not much different than Israel itself that moved away from its secularism into whatever it is trying to be. When I hear the Israeli ministers speak (that view pre-date 10/07), it is almost like hearing islamists speaking. 
 

As to who has the claim on Israel/Palestine, is whoever was living there. Whether it was a formal “nation” before or not, it doesn’t matter to the person thinking that they lost something.
 

I don’t know Torah, so cannot really comment on your last comment. In fact cannot really comment on Bible or Koran either. Life is more interesting than spending time reading boring religious books. That said no offence to anyone who reads for their reasons, be it spiritual or historical. 

[Xerxes]

@73 Reds @cubsfan

 

thank you gents. 
You must forgive Xerxes’ sarcasm.
it is early in the week. 

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

@73 Reds @cubsfan

 

thank you gents. 
You must forgive Xerxes’ sarcasm.
it is early in the week. 

 

Shit - I always appreciate sarcasm!

[Libs]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

I don’t know Torah, so cannot really comment on your last comment. In fact cannot really comment on Bible or Koran either. Life is more interesting than spending time reading boring religious books. That said no offence to anyone who reads for their reasons, be it spiritual or historical. 

 

I've read the Koran. With all due respect, it's an endless, bloody diatribe against non-believers. It's miraculous only a small % of Muslims take it at its word.

[Castanza]

10 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

but does that matter to the victims

 

It matters to the survivors because it tells you a lot about the future. Do they just want my gold, or do they want to exterminate me? Are you going to get Genghis Khan or Nebuchadnezzar II? 

 

 

[Xerxes]

8 minutes ago, Castanza said:

 

It matters to the survivors because it tells you a lot about the future. Do they just want my gold, or do they want to exterminate me? Are you going to get Genghis Khan or Nebuchadnezzar II? 

 

 

 

I mean we can debate this endlessly. I just don’t think normal folks from pre 20th century, unless they were in position of power, they were going to do a deep dive on why that race or people attacked me. 
 

A Congolese gentleman who had his arms chopped off by a white Belgian gentleman is not going to grow his missing arm much faster if the intent was different. 
 

As to the comment about Genghiz Khan, even now people misunderstand the Mongols. Extermination was strategy to them, means to achieve their aim. And not extermination for the sake of extermination. 
 

So even your own comment where you are trying to argue to virtue of analyzing the intent, has the wrong example. If I am reading your comment correctly. 

[Dinar]

3 hours ago, Xerxes said:

Wow. Silly me.
 

And I thought the multi-decade Israeli-Palestinian conflict was nationalistic one. Not a religious one. 

Learning new things from my fellow North Americans. 
 

If Hamas was a secular entity, would their terrorism be considered less terroristy ? I don’t think so. Was PLO secular or religious … 
 

Half dozen posts today on this thread, and no one dared to call out the current Israeli government what it really is. A racist extremist government. And not much different than most other governments in the Middle East, except that it can be democratically removed. But the fact your North American “programming” prevents you from acknowledging that, speaks volume and undermined most of your collective arguments. 
 

note: I said current. So no one gets excited and accuse me of being against Israel. As they had governments before that were not ran by racists idiots and morons. Warmongering, I can tolerate, racism. No. 

You and I agree on Netanyahu & his coalition partners, I think you know that.

[Xerxes]

6 minutes ago, Dinar said:

You and I agree on Netanyahu & his coalition partners, I think you know that.

 

Hi Dinar

100%. In fact you were one of the few who said clearly and explicitly upfront, in this thread months ago. 
 

I think though we have a gap in terms of nationalist vs religiousness tilt of the Middle East. 

[Castanza]

2 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

A Congolese gentleman who had his arms chopped off by a white Belgian gentleman is not going to grow his missing arm much faster if the intent was different. 
 

As to the comment about Genghiz Khan, even now people misunderstand the Mongols. Extermination was strategy to them, means to achieve their aim. And not extermination for the sake of extermination. 
 

So even your own comment where you are trying to argue to virtue of analyzing the intent, has the wrong example. If I am reading your comment correctly. 

 

The Mongols for the most part allowed religious freedom and autonomy within nations the conquered. I'd argue they were downright progressive for their time (not ignoring their brutality). Where rulers like Hitler wanted to kills Jews simply because they were Jews. 

 

11 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

I mean we can debate this endlessly. I just don’t think normal folks from pre 20th century, unless they were in position of power, they were going to do a deep dive on why that race or people attacked me.

 

Mmm idk man I think for the most part you would know. But it's besides the point. 

 

 

@Xerxes What is your solution to the situation? Do you think a two State solution would work?

[Vish_ram]

Great article

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/two-state-solution-israelis-palestinians-708b6075

 

I find it fascinating that at every turn in history, Palestinians (& Arabs) have rejected the 2 state solution. What we've is just a proxy war of West with Iran & others. 

Edited August 20 by Vish_ram

[Xerxes]

23 minutes ago, Castanza said:

 

The Mongols for the most part allowed religious freedom and autonomy within nations the conquered. I'd argue they were downright progressive for their time (not ignoring their brutality). Where rulers like Hitler wanted to kills Jews simply because they were Jews. 

 

Looks like we both understand the Mongols. That said (again) to re-emphasis that this is from historical and intellectual point of view.

 

I wouldn’t want to be in those cities at that time where even the dogs were killed by the Mongols. 
 

But also perhaps I wouldn’t mind being a trader working my way in the Silk Roads to trade goods at the court of the great khan, once the bill was paid, and the empire built, of course. One could have re-created Goldman Sachs of that time trading silks and other goods, with tentacles stretching from Beijing to Baghdad. 

 

[Xerxes]

31 minutes ago, Castanza said:

 

@Xerxes What is your solution to the situation? Do you think a two State solution would work?

 

 

I am largely clueless on the topic. I don’t know what would help. A tragedy, that all I can say. 
 

Also it is not fair for me, living in North America, to comment on the pain of others (Palestinian and Israeli), not knowing all the nuisances. There is always more to any story. 

[Spekulatius]

7 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

Oh, I agree. They will just keep getting themselves killed now.  Think how paranoid they must be at this point.  A large portion of the population hates them - the leaders are being betrayed while the informants get paid off. Now with Gaza destroyed, Hezbollah has this to look forward too. 

 

Most of the Oct 7th planners are now dead - and the blowhards in Iran know this. You can be sure Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon is doing their own calculus on them ending up like Gaza.

 

I am not sure Hezbollah is next. They have been keeping pretty quiet except the mortar or missile strike every now and then. Even if Israel would start an incursion into Lebanon , they can’t really smoke them out unless they go very deep and stay there.

 

So my guess is that Israel leaves Hezbollah alone and Hezbollah leaves Israel alone, except the usual smaller skirmishes. Any larger confrontation will be indirect and not on Israels or Lebanon's soil, That’s just my guess and could be proven wrong tomorrow.

[cubsfan]

^^^  Look at it this way: There are 100,000 displaced Israelis from Northern Israel. So the ball is 

in Hezbollah's court.  Gaza is now a pile of rubble - and that's the warning of what S. Lebanon might look like - much worse than Shiite Beruit experienced in 2006.

 

Not that Israel wants to invade Lebanon - but if the alternative is N. Israel is a DMZ because of rocket & artillery attacks - then you can bet they will.

 

And with Trump around - the US will keep Tehran out of any border war.

[cubsfan]

Israel takes the gloves off with Lebanon.

 

How embarrassing for Hezbollah & Iran. Could not even get their attack off the ground.

Total humiliation.

 

A new phase of the war begins.

[Dinar]

46 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Israel takes the gloves off with Lebanon.

 

How embarrassing for Hezbollah & Iran. Could not even get their attack off the ground.

Total humiliation.

 

A new phase of the war begins.

Actually it does not.  Hezbollah still decides when and how to escalate.  Israel's policy of containment is a strategic failure.  Israel is winning tactically and losing strategically.   In the next war, US may not back Israel, Israel must wipe out Hezbollah if it is to restore deterrence and have a modicum of peace.  What to do about Iran's nuclear ambitions is another life or death question.  

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, Dinar said:

Actually it does not.  Hezbollah still decides when and how to escalate.  Israel's policy of containment is a strategic failure.  Israel is winning tactically and losing strategically.   In the next war, US may not back Israel, Israel must wipe out Hezbollah if it is to restore deterrence and have a modicum of peace.  What to do about Iran's nuclear ambitions is another life or death question.  

 

I doubt it. Both the Iranian puppet master and Hezbollah look inept.

This is like when the Israeli's took out Egypt's Air Force before the battle started.

 

Iran has to be very worried - what's next:

 

- Which of our leaders is going to get killed?

- Will they shut down our electric grid or oil resources?

- Is our Air Force next?

 

Israel proved they can reach into Damascus, Beirut or Tehran's ultra secure palaces and kill leaders.

 

Israel is not going to let Hezbollah turn Northern Israel into a war zone.

 

If Trump is elected, Iran is finished. The Ayatollah better hope Biden wins, so he can continue to fund his war and run interference against Israel.

 

 

[Dinar]

26 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

I doubt it. Both the Iranian puppet master and Hezbollah look inept.

This is like when the Israeli's took out Egypt's Air Force before the battle started.

 

Iran has to be very worried - what's next:

 

- Which of our leaders is going to get killed?

- Will they shut down our electric grid or oil resources?

- Is our Air Force next?

 

Israel proved they can reach into Damascus, Beirut or Tehran's ultra secure palaces and kill leaders.

 

Israel is not going to let Hezbollah turn Northern Israel into a war zone.

 

If Trump is elected, Iran is finished. The Ayatollah better hope Biden wins, so he can continue to fund his war and run interference against Israel.

 

 

100,000 Israelis cannot return to the north of Israel.  It is already a war zone.  Hezbollah chooses when to escalate and Israel is just a Pavlov's dog.  Israeli leadership has shown itself to be incompetent on October 7th and it still has not been able to defeat Hamas - a job that could have taken less than a month (Mongols would have done it within a month).   

[cubsfan]

What's the score right now anyway?  30-0, 50-0

 

To tell you the truth I flat lost count. Israel has killed dozens of Hezbollah, Hamas & Iranian LEADERS to this point. With NO loss of a  major Israeli figure.

 

The message is clear: we can hit you were/when we want. We may have to wait a while, but your underlings hate you, we can bribe them, they will betray you. If you pick up that cell phone or send that text - you might just meet your maker.

 

If you WANT to escalate this situation - then prepare to die. Or if you are Sinwar, just stay underground for the rest of your life.

 

If this escalation continues - no one is safe, not the Iranian President, the Ayatollah, NO one.

 

The real fun will begin if they take out the Navy, Air Force, etc

 

Gaza is finished - and Hezbollah is next.

Edited August 25 by cubsfan

[Dinar]

3 hours ago, cubsfan said:

What's the score right now anyway?  30-0, 50-0

 

To tell you the truth I flat lost count. Israel has killed dozens of Hezbollah, Hamas & Iranian LEADERS to this point. With NO loss of a  major Israeli figure.

 

The message is clear: we can hit you were/when we want. We may have to wait a while, but your underlings hate you, we can bribe them, they will betray you. If you pick up that cell phone or send that text - you might just meet your maker.

 

If you WANT to escalate this situation - then prepare to die. Or if you are Sinwar, just stay underground for the rest of your life.

 

If this escalation continues - no one is safe, not the Iranian President, the Ayatollah, NO one.

 

The real fun will begin if they take out the Navy, Air Force, etc

 

Gaza is finished - and Hezbollah is next.

Seriously?  What is the probability that Hamas is reborn in Gaza in a few years and attacks again?  The only way that Hamas is defeated in Gaza permanently is as follows: Gaza is in ruins, and all Palestinians have left Gaza.  Then it will be clear that Hamas has lost.  Similarly, Hezbollah will not be defeated until Shiites are expelled from Lebanon and Lebanon becomes Christian and Sunni Muslim.  Then, it will be clear to everyone that Hezbollah has been defeated and unable to reconstitute itself.   This is what happened to Germany after WWII.  Otherwise, Hezbollah will keep reconstituting itself like a Greek hydra - you chop a head and three grow.  You are welcome to disagree, but then how do you prevent a new organization rising like a phoenix from the ashes?  This is how the world has worked for millenia, what makes you think things are different this time?

[cubsfan]

It's different because a defeated nation understands when to stop attacking their neighbor unless they want more of the same.

 

Jordan & Egypt have co-existed just fine for several years. The difference is they knew when to throw in the towel and make peace. The Hamas leadership ranks is getting mighty thin these days and Israel can play whack-a-mole for decades, if it's a decision between their survival and letting Gaza rebuild. The Palestinians will have to come to their own decision if they want peace. Ball in their court. Same for Lebanon - another failed state. Can't help them if they have a death wish.

 

Time will tell in this case.