Luca Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 1. Tobacco Stocks 2. Coal and Oil Stocks 3. Gambling Stocks 4. Chinese Stocks. By how much will this outperform the SP 500 in the next decade? :D! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 I take a more sobering view. I would argue 1-3 are closer to cash return businesses and only 4 can arguably be a reinvestment/growth story. I own tobacco and O&G - the thesis for both is similar: the market is pricing in a faster terminal decline than I am. But there is not really growth, and I would be a seller when they are valued closer to a market multiple. Gambling, I haven't done much research there so I'll reserve comment China - You have compelling valuations and potential for growth with China. I am dipping my toes here (partly based on your posts!). In a future where the current political risks are overblown, it looks like a good bet. I am betting a political status quo is more preferable to open, direct hostilities. But still, difficult to argue against other faster growing areas of the global economy that will probably continue to grow: Technology and healthcare are two that come to mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueArb Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 How much will it damage the sports gambling business if Shohei Ohtani gets banned from baseball for gambling on it? Will MLB baseball force all teams to cut ties with sports books if they cost the MLB their biggest star? Lots of crazy rumours circling that his interpreter was just covering for him and that his losses far outstrip the reported $5M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dinar Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 Tobacco stocks are unlikely to outperform. Altria and British American tobacco are seeing almost 10% decline in the US cigarette business, and are not really priced accordingly, particularly Altria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 Smoking starts out as a social thing. This element alone has been greatly eroded as far as the smoking bull case goes. Kids today compared to decades ago really don’t smoke cigarettes. As far as the list. 2 works. And I’m bullish on 4 but need an inflection first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweet Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 Don’t own any of these. Don’t think I’d ever buy Chinese stocks either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted March 22 Author Share Posted March 22 25 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Smoking starts out as a social thing. This element alone has been greatly eroded as far as the smoking bull case goes. Kids today compared to decades ago really don’t smoke cigarettes. Remains to be seen what impact vaping and other replacements can do, but yes, I see this ice cube potentially melting faster than expected @Dinar pointed out. No position and currently no interest in one. 25 minutes ago, Gregmal said: As far as the list. 2 works. And I’m bullish on 4 but need an inflection first. Aren't the best prices offered when there is NO catalyst? As we can see with Lufax as an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted March 22 Author Share Posted March 22 16 minutes ago, Luca said: Aren't the best prices offered when there is NO catalyst? As we can see with Lufax as an example. I would even propose that WHILE there is NO catalyst in sight and the rest of the market goes parabolic, that creates extra downward pressure for these disregarded stocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 22 minutes ago, Luca said: Remains to be seen what impact vaping and other replacements can do, but yes, I see this ice cube potentially melting faster than expected @Dinar pointed out. No position and currently no interest in one. Aren't the best prices offered when there is NO catalyst? As we can see with Lufax as an example. No. Rather buy after the bottom is in because it lets other people figure out where the bottom is. I still hear cult like chants of “price is what you pay, value is what you get” from the BABA thread going back YEARS now. Stuff like LU just gives people false hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brobro777 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 Ouch why you gotta dunk on my Marlboro stocks man What is this the Corner of Breaking Balls and Fairfax? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 On 3/22/2024 at 12:11 PM, ValueArb said: How much will it damage the sports gambling business if Shohei Ohtani gets banned from baseball for gambling on it? Will MLB baseball force all teams to cut ties with sports books if they cost the MLB their biggest star? Lots of crazy rumours circling that his interpreter was just covering for him and that his losses far outstrip the reported $5M. I think MLB needs gambling money more than they need Shohei Ohtani. MLB is probably the sport that has the most to lose from the bundle/RSN model breaking. I think ultimately MLB needs gambling and wants Ohtani. I think even if it was him it gets swept under the rug. May be he takes a year off as a soft suspension - this year is good as he can't pitch anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweet Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 On 3/23/2024 at 12:09 AM, brobro777 said: What is this the Corner of Breaking Balls and Fairfax? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malmqky Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Prediction: 5 years from now: underperforming a decade from now: out performing 15 years from now: back to underperforming over the timeframe Yeah I’m just making stuff up. But, I think there’s a high chance coal/oil outperforms. Tobacco I’m 60:40 on. But both are priced like the companies behind the stocks will be out of business in a decade, obv this isn’t the case. China I also am certain outperforms if sentiment betters and Taiwan isn’t attacked. Gambling I know nothing about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shru Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Sorry for my lack of knowledge and, might be not so intelligent question: Being bullish on 1 and 2 - is it the result of impending rate cuts? As once the interest rate will go down - investor will be looking at those organization which pays good dividend? (Given that Tobacco and oil companies provide decent dividends.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedLion Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 (edited) On 3/22/2024 at 2:19 PM, Luca said: 1. Tobacco Stocks 2. Coal and Oil Stocks 3. Gambling Stocks 4. Chinese Stocks. By how much will this outperform the SP 500 in the next decade? :D! I would buy OTM LEAPs on this etf. Rightly or wrongly. Based on my theory that value stocks usually underperform and for short periods of time sometimes stomp the markets. Edited March 27 by RedLion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intelligent_Investor Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Depends on timeframe tbh. 3/4 will probably not be great long term compounders, so if your time horizon is decades and not years it might be better to go with stuff like tech every 2-3 years when they get cheap for no damn reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malmqky Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 https://spotify.link/amsJQPtvjIb Decent overview regarding coal, especially met coal. Probably a few tidbits anyone can take away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArminvanBuyout Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 5 hours ago, Malmqky said: https://spotify.link/amsJQPtvjIb Decent overview regarding coal, especially met coal. Probably a few tidbits anyone can take away. Warder's a beast - was a great resource when I was ramping up on met Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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