Fairfax 2024

[Parsad]

Francis had an interesting update on Loggerhead's losses in Florida due to Milton.  He expected Loggerhead to have losses between $20M and $80M.  But they had excellent reinsurance coverage and their net loss will only be $7M.

 

But he expects a lot of insurers, reinsurers and captives to be in financial trouble as Milton went over densely populated areas unlike Helene.  He thinks it was one of the worst storms in the last century.

 

I'm hoping Prem and Andy buy reinsurance like Francis...or preferably, he buys reinsurance like them!    Cheers!

[giulio]

15 hours ago, nwoodman said:

I would be much happier to have a low double digit return that I know and understand that I can hold for a decade or more  than a quick 30-50% gain and a serious tax bill.

Couldn't agree more! 

@LC at YE 23, my estimates of look-through earnings were around 135USD per share. This excludes investments gains (both derivates and sales). 

LOts of moving parts of course, especially this year. I think 10x is too low but I am comfortable using 13x given their Indian exposure, fixed income allocation, growing income from consolidated subs and associates, the possibility of repurchasing minorities stakes and ongoing buybacks.

 

This is why I think it is still cheap. At USD1800 maybe I'll need to do more work 

 

Best,

G

[nwoodman]

13 hours ago, Parsad said:

Francis had an interesting update on Loggerhead's losses in Florida due to Milton.  He expected Loggerhead to have losses between $20M and $80M.  But they had excellent reinsurance coverage and their net loss will only be $7M.

 

But he expects a lot of insurers, reinsurers and captives to be in financial trouble as Milton went over densely populated areas unlike Helene.  He thinks it was one of the worst storms in the last century.

 

I'm hoping Prem and Andy buy reinsurance like Francis...or preferably, he buys reinsurance like them!    Cheers!

Interesting data point.  I realise Fairfax has a history of donating to Disaster relief, so I am not reading anything in to their $1m donation either. We will find out soon enough. I expect Berkshire to have a bit of a hit based on the comments at the AGM.

[gfp]

15 hours ago, Parsad said:

Francis had an interesting update on Loggerhead's losses in Florida due to Milton.  He expected Loggerhead to have losses between $20M and $80M.  But they had excellent reinsurance coverage and their net loss will only be $7M.

 

But he expects a lot of insurers, reinsurers and captives to be in financial trouble as Milton went over densely populated areas unlike Helene.  He thinks it was one of the worst storms in the last century.

 

I'm hoping Prem and Andy buy reinsurance like Francis...or preferably, he buys reinsurance like them!    Cheers!

 

Here are some private insurance loss estimates from Milton - quite a range of outcomes.  As always, keep in mind that a lot of the flood losses shown on television are not covered by private insurance.  There will be substantial commercial insurance losses.