Fairfax 2024

[Parsad]

Also, some of you keep wondering why I want Fairfax to hold more cash in the holding company or reduce debt...it's because of scum buckets like this who from time to time are going to attack the company.  

 

Buffett doesn't have to worry, because he keeps enough FU money in the company to buy back stock, debt or support any of the businesses.  I would really like to see the same at FFH long-term.  

 

Shorts come sniffing around, you are going to get effed up trying to short FFH.  That's ideally what I would like to see.

 

Cheers!

[gfp]

Block tries to imply that Fairfax holding much of their government bond portfolio as Level 2 assets is somehow strange and untoward and ripe for manipulation.

 

Off-the-run treasury securities or really any bond that requires a dealer quote to get a valuation is Level 2.  That is how off-the-run securities are supposed to be classified.

[LC]

3 hours ago, KFS said:

Another video interview of Carson Block discussing the MW short..... 

 

Fairfax Financial: The Oracle of Nothing - Zer0esTV: Video channel for short sellers

 

Someone has to tell Carson Block to get a new suit. Guy looks like he's wearing a pillowcase. 

 

I was bemoaning selling ~3% of my position at 1310 or so. Well, thanks Carson as I bought that back and more.

[Viking]

3 hours ago, treasurehunt said:

I'm also very curious to see Viking's take on the Muddy Waters report, but based on my read it seems to be much ado about nothing much.

 

@treasurehunt For the past 3 years I have been writing pretty extensively on Fairfax (putting it mildly). I have compiled my writings into a 330 page document called 'Hiding in Plain Sight'. I will attach a copy of the updated PDF file to this post (and also the companion Excel file). I have not seen anything today that suggests I need to change anything in my PDF file. Anything I might want to say is in there. 

 

That is all I am going to say about what has been going on today. If you have a family member who believes in UFO's or Sasquatch do you argue about it with them? I don't. It is energy draining and it accomplishes nothing. 

 

Peter Lynch has one golden rule when it comes to investing: 'understand what you own'. Education is the key.

 

When a stock I own goes down and I panic it usually means I don't understand what I own. The answer? More education is needed. Hence why I am posting an updated version of my PDF file.

 

I was not panicking about my sizeable Fairfax position today. I was surprisingly calm. And I was adding. Buffett tells us 'Price is there to serve you not to inform you'. He is one smart dude.

Fairfax Feb 8 2024.pdf Fairfax Jan 31 2024.xlsx

Edited February 9 by Viking

[Alekbaylee]

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

Also, some of you keep wondering why I want Fairfax to hold more cash in the holding company or reduce debt...it's because of scum buckets like this who from time to time are going to attack the company.  

 

Buffett doesn't have to worry, because he keeps enough FU money in the company to buy back stock, debt or support any of the businesses.  I would really like to see the same at FFH long-term.  

 

Shorts come sniffing around, you are going to get effed up trying to short FFH.  That's ideally what I would like to see.

 

Cheers!

[KFS]

 

 

Fairly certain this fellow is a regular on this board.  Well done.  

 

It's completely incorrect to associate growth in Fairfax with book value adjustment: expert - Video - BNN (bnnbloomberg.ca)

[Phoenix01]

Here is a good review of the MW report.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=nsxGizwLTd8&si=KJEEabBKv7v5b70z

[Xerxes]

12 minutes ago, KFS said:

 

 

Fairly certain this fellow is a regular on this board.  Well done.  

 

It's completely incorrect to associate growth in Fairfax with book value adjustment: expert - Video - BNN (bnnbloomberg.ca)

 

 

Well done Trevor Scott !

 

 

[Thrifty3000]

39 minutes ago, Viking said:

 

@treasurehunt For the past 3 years I have been writing pretty extensively on Fairfax (putting it mildly). I have compiled my writings into a 330 page document called 'Hiding in Plain Sight'. I will attach a copy of the updated PDF file to this post (and also the companion Excel file). I have not seen anything today that suggests I need to change anything in my PDF file. Anything I might want to say is in there. 

 

That is all I am going to say about what has been going on today. If you have a family member who believes in UFO's or Sasquatch do you argue about it with them? I don't. It is energy draining and it accomplishes nothing. 

 

Peter Lynch has one golden rule when it comes to investing: 'understand what you own'. Education is the key.

 

When a stock I own goes down and I panic it usually means I don't understand what I own. The answer? More education is needed. Hence why I am posting an updated version of my PDF file.

 

I was not panicking about my sizeable Fairfax position today. I was surprisingly calm. And I was adding. Buffett tells us 'Price is there to serve you not to inform you'. He is one smart dude.

Fairfax Feb 8 2024.pdf 15.9 MB · 11 downloads Fairfax Jan 31 2024.xlsx 255.57 kB · 6 downloads

I bought more today too. Reinvested the dividend.

[Maverick47]

54 minutes ago, Viking said:

was not panicking about my sizeable Fairfax position today. I was surprisingly calm. And I was adding. Buffett tells us 'Price is there to serve you not to inform you'. He is one smart dude.

Thanks @Viking.  The only thing I was sorry about was that I didn’t have any dry powder in my personal accounts to do the same.  However, I was able to pick up some shares for a family member’s account that I manage.  

[nwoodman]

45 minutes ago, Phoenix01 said:

Here is a good review of the MW report.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=nsxGizwLTd8&si=KJEEabBKv7v5b70z

Ta,  seeing the table from the quarterly reminded me that Eurobank is a 2.5 bn position today vs carrying of $1.8bn.  Crickets on that one!

[Viking]

2 minutes ago, Maverick47 said:

Thanks @Viking.  The only thing I was sorry about was that I didn’t have any dry powder in my personal accounts to do the same.  However, I was able to pick up some shares for a family member’s account that I manage.  

 

@Maverick47  This really is an interesting situation. The time to short Fairfax was 2020. Maybe 2021. But today? I don't get it. Fairfax has had record operating earnings for three years in a row now. With more coming in 2024. This just means they will have significant funds to buy back a shitload of shares if they want. I think they just might.

 

The short sellers have to know this. They can't be that stupid.

 

So they need to get long at some point. And likely before Fairfax responds. That is days away. 

[Viking]

21 minutes ago, nwoodman said:

Ta,  seeing the table from the quarterly reminded me that Eurobank is a 2.5 bn position today vs carrying of $1.8bn.  Crickets on that one!

 

@nwoodman  I was thinking the exact same thing today. The Eurobank position is currently understated in BV by about $700 million. Add in Fairfax India and Thomas Cook and you are probably at around $1.3 billion (if you value Fairfax India at Fairfax India's low stock price). The fact that none of this is brought up is instructive. 

Edited February 9 by Viking

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, Viking said:

 

@treasurehunt For the past 3 years I have been writing pretty extensively on Fairfax (putting it mildly). I have compiled my writings into a 330 page document called 'Hiding in Plain Sight'. I will attach a copy of the updated PDF file to this post (and also the companion Excel file). I have not seen anything today that suggests I need to change anything in my PDF file. Anything I might want to say is in there. 

 

That is all I am going to say about what has been going on today. If you have a family member who believes in UFO's or Sasquatch do you argue about it with them? I don't. It is energy draining and it accomplishes nothing. 

 

Peter Lynch has one golden rule when it comes to investing: 'understand what you own'. Education is the key.

 

When a stock I own goes down and I panic it usually means I don't understand what I own. The answer? More education is needed. Hence why I am posting an updated version of my PDF file.

 

I was not panicking about my sizeable Fairfax position today. I was surprisingly calm. And I was adding. Buffett tells us 'Price is there to serve you not to inform you'. He is one smart dude.

Fairfax Feb 8 2024.pdf 15.9 MB · 13 downloads Fairfax Jan 31 2024.xlsx 255.57 kB · 8 downloads

 

+1!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

10 minutes ago, Viking said:

 

@Maverick47  This really is an interesting situation. The time to short Fairfax was 2020. Maybe 2021. But today? I don't get it. Fairfax has had record operating earnings for three years in a row now. With more coming in 2024. This just means they will have significant funds to buy back a shitload of shares if they want. I think they just might.

 

The short sellers have to know this. They can't be that stupid.

 

So they need to get long at some point. And likely before Fairfax responds. That is days away. 

 

I agree!  This was a timing issue.  With the 1st Q report coming out soon, somebody needed to cover.  Cheers!

[Munger_Disciple]

In the third quarter 2023 FFH interim report, Note 6 shows the carrying values and fair values for investments in associates. So the total fair value of these investments exceeds the total carrying value by 940mm. In other words, book value is understated by 940mm for these investments. Instead of taking a wholistic view, MW focuses only on those investments like Quess whose carrying value exceeds its fair value. Moreover Carson Block starts out his short thesis by claiming that BV only grew 9% instead of Prem's 15% goal. If this is headline of short thesis, those of us who are long have nothing to worry about. 

MW is report is very disingenuous & misleading to say the least. Blessing in disguise for those longs looking to increase their position. 
 

Edited February 9 by Munger_Disciple

[TwoCitiesCapital]

What's interesting about all of this, to me, is the 10% move today had me buying shares and increasing my position by 10%. 

 

But I wasn't increasing my position by 10% when we were at this price 4-6 weeks ago. Probably 1/2 anchoring bias and 1/2 knowing earnings announced next week are gonna be amazing 

 

 

Edited February 9 by TwoCitiesCapital

[Hektor]

2 hours ago, KFS said:

 

Fairly certain this fellow is a regular on this board.  Well done.  

 

It's completely incorrect to associate growth in Fairfax with book value adjustment: expert - Video - BNN (bnnbloomberg.ca)

[Hektor]

2 hours ago, Phoenix01 said:

Here is a good review of the MW report.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=nsxGizwLTd8&si=KJEEabBKv7v5b70z

[Hektor]

Interesting point in the YouTube video posted by @Phoenix01. Why were these questions not raised by the short seller during one of the previous conference calls.

 

?May be they discovered these “issues” after the last conference call 

 

Before going public, did the short seller approach Fairfax for a response to these “findings’? What was their response?

[Santayana]

1 hour ago, Viking said:

This really is an interesting situation. The time to short Fairfax was 2020. Maybe 2021. But today?

I'd love it if has been short since then!  It's really not clear if this is a new idea, or a last ditch attempt to unwind a position.

[treasurehunt]

2 hours ago, Viking said:

For the past 3 years I have been writing pretty extensively on Fairfax (putting it mildly). I have compiled my writings into a 330 page document called 'Hiding in Plain Sight'. I will attach a copy of the updated PDF file to this post (and also the companion Excel file). I have not seen anything today that suggests I need to change anything in my PDF file. Anything I might want to say is in there.

 

Thanks, Viking. I have read most of your posts here but it will be interesting to go through the compendium.

[Crip1]

8 hours ago, Viking said:

 

Is anyone else experiencing deja vu?

 

If Peter Eavis made an appearance, that would feel like deja vu. Although, as a long-time shareholder, it would be great to see BSilly or Cardboard back commenting.

 

-Crip

 

Edited February 9 by Crip1

[StubbleJumper]

2 hours ago, nwoodman said:

Ta,  seeing the table from the quarterly reminded me that Eurobank is a 2.5 bn position today vs carrying of $1.8bn.  Crickets on that one!

 

Well, that's what's so funny.  The report bemoaned the fact that some paper gains were triggered 4 or 5 years ago from Grivalia properties, buy it never took a paragraph to examine the current value of Grivalia.  Well, that's pretty obvious because Grivalia is now Eurobank, and as you say, the market value far exceeds the carrying value.  So to what end should someone bellyache today about the paper gains triggered 5 years ago when those paper gains are fully supported by an even higher market value?

 

And so it goes with APR Energy.  The report grouses about the possibility that it was dumped on Seaspan to avoid a paper loss at FFH, but it doesn't go that next step and evaluated the value of APR today.  Well, now APR is part of the Atlas position, and the fair value of that position is far greater than its carrying cost.  So, what's the point of bellyaching about that transaction from 3 years ago?

 

It's the same story with Odyssey and Brit.  The report throws a hissy-fit because there were modest paper gains triggered a few years ago, but it never went that next step to make the argument that those insurance subs were less valuable than the new carrying cost.  And certainly now three years later, there's no argument at all that those companies are more valuable than their carrying cost.

 

Let's just throw a pile of shit at the wall and see what sticks.

 

 

SJ

[Crip1]

This short report can be one of three things, as I see it:

 

1) Smash and grab - This is clearly possible with a stock that has risen rapidly, is complicated, and is in the blackout period ahead of what should be a pretty solid earnings report. If this is the case, one has to think that a 12% decline today should have resulted in some quick money and this may go away.

 

2) Honest analysis - There are contrarians out there, and I can sometimes fall into that camp. They do analysis and state their opinions with no nefarious intentions besides making money. One has to acknowledge that this is a possibility. If this is the case, then one would think this will go away pretty quickly but if the report and subsequent success in driving the price down continues, others may jump on board. If so, this will last a little while.

 

3) Something nefarious - Like the early 2000's, this may be bigger than Carson Block or the Muddy Waters firm. Not making accusations, just acknowledging that this is a possibility. And, if true, than this could get pretty ugly. Likely not as ugly as it did 20 years ago because Fairfax is in a significantly better position now than they were then, but ugly still.

 

-Crip