gfp Posted March 4 Posted March 4 27 minutes ago, james22 said: Funny this thread isn't getting more attention. But bullish. I mean, it is a crypto thread on a value investing message board so not super surprising.
rkbabang Posted March 4 Author Posted March 4 How much more is there to say? Now we just watch it play out.
SharperDingaan Posted March 4 Posted March 4 (edited) This keeps up, we're going to have to have a 2nd capital repatriation this year .... SD Edited March 5 by SharperDingaan
james22 Posted March 4 Posted March 4 2 hours ago, gfp said: I mean, it is a crypto thread on a value investing message board so not super surprising. Searching COBF returns 1,501 hits for momentum and 347 hits for "Special Situation."
gfp Posted March 4 Posted March 4 1 minute ago, james22 said: Searching COBF returns 1,501 hits for momentum and 347 hits for "Special Situation." How many hits for FOMO (not counting this one)?
james22 Posted March 4 Posted March 4 20 minutes ago, gfp said: How many hits for FOMO (not counting this one)? FOMO: 154 Regret: 597
rkbabang Posted March 4 Author Posted March 4 44 minutes ago, james22 said: FOMO: 154 Regret: 597 Bitcoin: 2450
wachtwoord Posted March 5 Posted March 5 18 hours ago, rkbabang said: How much more is there to say? Now we just watch it play out. That's been true for many years though
ValueArb Posted March 5 Posted March 5 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-03-05/cryptocurrencies-bitcoin-is-up-but-the-future-of-money-lies-elsewhere Quote Bitcoin Is Up But the Future of Money Lies Elsewhere FOMO is no match for real utility, as an alternative digital gold rush in Brazil shows. March 5, 2024 at 6:28 AM MST Updated on March 5, 2024 at 8:18 AM MST By Lionel Laurent Lionel Laurent is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist writing about the future of money and the future of Europe. Previously, he was a reporter for Reuters and Forbes. Maybe he does. But very few others do. Photographer: David Ryder/Getty Images North America A new form of digital money is going viral, capturing tens of millions of users, billions of transactions and the attention of global central banks. No, not Bitcoin, which climbed above $69,000 on Tuesday and set a fresh record for the first time since November 2021. Instead, I’m talking about Brazil’s cheap instant-payment system Pix. And the latter just might have a better claim to signposting the future than the cryptocurrency. Launched in 2020, the initial idea behind Pix — as with all good fintech solutions — was to boost financial inclusion, loosen the grip of a concentrated banking system and make payments quicker and more efficient. It’s succeeded at remarkable speed: It’s been used by 160 million people, or 80% of Brazil’s adult population, as well as 13 million firms, and now beats credit and debit cards as the country’s preferred payment method. The plan is to take it global at a time when central banks are experimenting with payment overhauls and digital currencies to keep a grip on tech disruption.
rkbabang Posted March 6 Author Posted March 6 Pix is a centralized database created and controlled by the central bank of Brazil. It is the opposite of a decentralized secure blockchain. Whereas Bitcoin is the most secure asset on Earth. A completely different animal. Sure people might use a CBDC, but they will not have control over their account, the central bank will. The next time a tyrant like Trudeau wants to stop donations to a protest, or freeze protestors accounts, for example, they will have an easier time doing it if everyone is using CBDCs.
jfan Posted March 6 Posted March 6 (edited) The blockchain war book is particularly interesting and ties in many of the debates we have here: 1) payment system vs non-sovereign money 2) A centralized system of power vs a decentralized system of governance Book describes 2 camps within the bitcoin ecosystem, big blockers and small blockers. This debate arose because of the amount of data that each block can contain is 1 Mb which causes a limitation in scaling the BTC network as a payment system. Interestingly, the big blockers comprised mostly of the China miners/mining equipment developers/big mining pools/many American-based crypto exchanges (Coinbase), and those representing big business focused on a non-Visa payment system. The small blockers comprised primarily of developers and those that wished to create a new decentralized money (their ethos was open-source, network community consensus on the underlying rules). The author describes the big blockers having a shorter time frame, believed that amount of hashing power represented the degree of influence they should have, and their understanding of the computer science was less skilled than the small blockers. Whereas small blockers were better programmers, and promoted safe coding practices not to risk disruptive hard forks, replay risk, etc in addition to their focus on network consensus of both validating and mining nodes before changes could be enforced. Both sides played by the rules of engagement and dirty as well. Bitmain was not a paragon of ethics and secretly had an IP that was called ASIC boost, that allowed their miners to hash more efficiently and helped them have a profitability advantage. Segwit was a smaller blocker BIP soft fork initiative, that effectively increased the blocksize to 2Mb without increasing the 1Mb limit (don't ask me how). However, Segwit would neutralized ASIC boost's ability to use less electricity. The code base is maintained on Github by a few smaller blockers (1 main person at the time of the books writing), and there were several Reddit, Bitcoin talk, email lists, that discussed these issues (some maintained by small and others by big blockers). Ultimately, the smaller blockers won, but this outcome wasn't because they were any better at strategy and programming skill. They made some gambles that could have turned on them very badly if the big blockers saw these opportunities, if the big blockers had better computer science skills, if ethereum had not undergone a controversial hard fork that was very disruptive to recover stolen ETH by a hacker at around the same time this debate was occurring. Long and short of it, I think BTC will always be faced with politically/economically self-interest entities that want to centralize it in additional to the technical/developer risks of keeping BTC functioning on a decentralized manner. A complete history of Bitcoin's consensus forks - 2022 Update | BitMEX Blog Below is a problem that is yet to be fixed Long and short of this meandering post coupled with @wachtwoord's paper above, a few things come to mind. 1) payment systems don't accrue value like a store-of-value function, but big centralizing forces will always be a threat because they will capture the most value if BTC is mainly a payment system 2) how decentralized are the full nodes in the network out there? 3) who is going to update, maintaining and provide the necessary solutions for bugs, soft forks as this technology progresses through time and scale? Edited March 6 by jfan
Longnose Posted March 6 Posted March 6 12 hours ago, jfan said: 2) how decentralized are the full nodes in the network out there? 3) who is going to update, maintaining and provide the necessary solutions for bugs, soft forks as this technology progresses through time and scale? 2) how decentralized are the full nodes in the network out there? - Fully decentralized anyone can run one. 3) who is going to update, maintaining and provide the necessary solutions for bugs, soft forks as this technology progresses through time and scale? - People who believe in the decentralization of money. Hence running a full node in your basement allows you the ability to contribute and validate the blockchain as it scales. Offsetting the comment in argument 1. big centralizing forces cant offset the myriads of little guys running full nodes in their basements. Play with it. Playing with it will develop understanding of it 10X faster than reading about it.
jfan Posted March 6 Posted March 6 52 minutes ago, Longnose said: 2) how decentralized are the full nodes in the network out there? - Fully decentralized anyone can run one. 3) who is going to update, maintaining and provide the necessary solutions for bugs, soft forks as this technology progresses through time and scale? - People who believe in the decentralization of money. Hence running a full node in your basement allows you the ability to contribute and validate the blockchain as it scales. Offsetting the comment in argument 1. big centralizing forces cant offset the myriads of little guys running full nodes in their basements. Play with it. Playing with it will develop understanding of it 10X faster than reading about it. lol...already running one and a nerdminer. It would interesting to see if people start contributing to the hash rate in a small scale non-economic manner. Better than spending money buying lottery tickets weekly.
Dave86ch Posted March 7 Posted March 7 (edited) 15 hours ago, Longnose said: 2) how decentralized are the full nodes in the network out there? - Fully decentralized anyone can run one. 3) who is going to update, maintaining and provide the necessary solutions for bugs, soft forks as this technology progresses through time and scale? - People who believe in the decentralization of money. Hence running a full node in your basement allows you the ability to contribute and validate the blockchain as it scales. Offsetting the comment in argument 1. big centralizing forces cant offset the myriads of little guys running full nodes in their basements. Play with it. Playing with it will develop understanding of it 10X faster than reading about it. I run a full node and a lightning node on an old ThinkPad. Why? Because it's the religion I belong to, and I will defend this idea. I will explore new territories, be part of a changing environment. I'm the ant that follows a new path, the rebel who wants to subvert the status quo, the person who seeks more freedom. https://dscompounding.com/2023/03/18/optimalism-the-mind/ Edited March 7 by Dave86ch
ValueArb Posted March 7 Posted March 7 7 hours ago, Dave86ch said: I run a full node and a lightning node on an old ThinkPad. Why? Because it's the religion I belong to, and I will defend this idea. I will explore new territories, be part of a changing environment. I'm the ant that follows a new path, the rebel who wants to subvert the status quo, the person who seeks more freedom. https://dscompounding.com/2023/03/18/optimalism-the-mind/ Some nits on rational thinking that have nothing to do with crypto or bitcoin. A religion is a belief that can only be taken on faith, and faith is the excuse you give yourself when you don't have good reason to believe something. We should all strive to accept only true beliefs, ie based on sufficient evidence. If your belief in crypto and Bitcoin is based on rational reasons (and I think you would agree it is), that is by definition not your religion. The Optimalism essay also claims the mind is separated into two parts, physical and "metaphysical". There has never been any compelling evidence that the mind isn't wholly physical. In fact, there is a great deal of evidence to the contrary from traumatic brain injuries dramatically altering peoples personalities establishing how strongly their physical brains correlate to the operation of their "minds". Since the metaphysical and supernatural aren't falsifiable ideas, this can't prove our minds are entirely the product of physical processes but it's compelling evidence they are. Its wierd the essay makes this tangent when the rest of it is laser focused on thinking rationally.
wachtwoord Posted March 8 Posted March 8 On 3/7/2024 at 5:05 PM, ValueArb said: Some nits on rational thinking that have nothing to do with crypto or bitcoin. A religion is a belief that can only be taken on faith, and faith is the excuse you give yourself when you don't have good reason to believe something. We should all strive to accept only true beliefs, ie based on sufficient evidence. If your belief in crypto and Bitcoin is based on rational reasons (and I think you would agree it is), that is by definition not your religion. The Optimalism essay also claims the mind is separated into two parts, physical and "metaphysical". There has never been any compelling evidence that the mind isn't wholly physical. In fact, there is a great deal of evidence to the contrary from traumatic brain injuries dramatically altering peoples personalities establishing how strongly their physical brains correlate to the operation of their "minds". Since the metaphysical and supernatural aren't falsifiable ideas, this can't prove our minds are entirely the product of physical processes but it's compelling evidence they are. Its wierd the essay makes this tangent when the rest of it is laser focused on thinking rationally. He doesnt mean religion of course. He's just pointing out that him running a node ike this doesnt provide him objective value > cost and effort to do so. He means his motivation is largely moral in nature (contributing to something he subjectively values as good, hence his use of "religion").
Dave86ch Posted March 9 Posted March 9 (edited) On 3/7/2024 at 5:05 PM, ValueArb said: Some nits on rational thinking that have nothing to do with crypto or bitcoin. A religion is a belief that can only be taken on faith, and faith is the excuse you give yourself when you don't have good reason to believe something. We should all strive to accept only true beliefs, ie based on sufficient evidence. If your belief in crypto and Bitcoin is based on rational reasons (and I think you would agree it is), that is by definition not your religion. The Optimalism essay also claims the mind is separated into two parts, physical and "metaphysical". There has never been any compelling evidence that the mind isn't wholly physical. In fact, there is a great deal of evidence to the contrary from traumatic brain injuries dramatically altering peoples personalities establishing how strongly their physical brains correlate to the operation of their "minds". Since the metaphysical and supernatural aren't falsifiable ideas, this can't prove our minds are entirely the product of physical processes but it's compelling evidence they are. Its wierd the essay makes this tangent when the rest of it is laser focused on thinking rationally. Rationality will never be the glue that coordinates our actions as a species. This doesn't mean that our actions are not sometimes backed by rational thinking. Edited March 9 by Dave86ch
Milu Posted March 11 Posted March 11 (edited) For the other investors who hold crypto in the forum, what is the current percent of your net worth you have in the asset class? For me I put about 2.5% of my net worth into bitcoin and ethereum back in Mid-2020, and have just held ever since. As of today this is now close to 17% and is my largest position. Edited March 11 by Milu
Libs Posted March 11 Posted March 11 I bought a handful for $200 each way back in the day (2015?); then bought two more for $50,000 each a little while ago. Talk about averaging up! Anyway that last buy was to get me to to a 3% position, where it will remain untouched. I guess it's 4% now.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 11 Posted March 11 3 hours ago, Milu said: % of my net worth into bitcoin and ethereum back in Mid-2020, and have just held ever since. As of today this is now close to 17% and is my largest position. It was 20% of my net worth at the beginning of the year. Definitely higher now and predominantly in BTC with a little ETH. Wish I had been as hands-off. I lost 10-15k learning DeFi and altcoins in early 2021 by buying near the top and riding it down and then lost another 0.4 BTC in the Celsius bankruptcy. Would be doing quite a bit better had I just stuck with Bitcoin and kept it in my wallet.
james22 Posted March 11 Posted March 11 3 hours ago, Milu said: For the other investors who hold crypto in the forum, what is the current percent of your net worth you have in the asset class? A little over 20%.
SharperDingaan Posted March 11 Posted March 11 25-35% of cash equivalents at cost, highest when we enter the position. As we periodically repatriate capital we trim it down, as we swing trade we fine tune the weighting; cash gains/losses into Canada's. If we've done our job well; we will only have realised swing trade gains, and HODL on unrealised losses. BTC drops 25% next month; we sell down the Canada's, re-enter at the lower price, raise our cost base, and adjust our weighting. As total cash equivalents rise, so does the amount we can safely put into BTC Do this long enough and eventually there will be a year-end with a lot of BTC at a high cost base, in a much lower priced market. Sell everything, buy it back >45+ days later, reset the cost base, and harvest the tax loss. Not for everyone, but it does the job very well. SD
rkbabang Posted March 11 Author Posted March 11 (edited) As of right now: BTC: 17.8% ETH: 9.7% MSTR: 6.3% 33.8% of net worth if considering MSTR as a crypto investment (which I do). 27.5% if only counting self custody crypto. Edited March 11 by rkbabang
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