Cryptocurrencies

[Buckeye]

On 3/5/2026 at 4:24 AM, Milu said:

Welcome to the club. You now need to brush up on your lingo. Please ensure the pepper any future conversations in this thread (or others) with the old reliables

"Fix the money, fix the world"

"Bitcoin is signal, everything else is noise"

"Few understand"

"Not your keys, not your coin"

 

And I assume you have already picked out what colour Lambo you are going to buy when this thing takes off?

 

 

 

 

Don’t forget…”It’s a ‘feature’ and not a ‘bug’”

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Just about everywhere I look, I'm seeing public Bitcoin miners selling production, their stack, and or pivoting to AI. 

 

This feels like a capitulation. I'm hesitant to call a bottom given the deteriorating geopolitical and economic situation, but I'm thinking $60k might have been the bottom. 

 

This would also fit with my thoughts that we didn't need an 80+% drop for the bear market to end since we never got the euphoria preceding it. 

[SharperDingaan]

Keep in mind that BTC is also a higher volume alternative to the ME Hawala system; the Iran/Gulf war demand is elevating demand at present, and miners are using it to exit. We're currently at roughly the MSTR break-even .... but most would expect that as/when that ME liquidity abates, and the tide goes out .... price will come down quite a bit 

 

Most would also expect a bottom, shortly before the US Fed is forced into issuing a BTC backed debt instrument. The lower BTC goes, the easier it will be to deliver the required marketing 'bump' alongside implementation; the broader indexes are selling down, liquidity is draining, margin calls cannot be that far away.

 

A 60K floor is reasonable; we just expect to rise up to it, following an 'event'. For us ... re-entry will be primarily about keeping the funny money gains from o/g, versus whether BTC rises tomorrow. We just need a liquid parking spot, not in a broader market index, that is likely to hold its value for a time ... any subsequent rise is just bonus. 

 

Good luck 

 

SD  

 

 

 

Edited March 8 by SharperDingaan

[Dave86ch]

14 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

Keep in mind that BTC is also a higher volume alternative to the ME Hawala system; the Iran/Gulf war demand is elevating demand at present, and miners are using it to exit. We're currently at roughly the MSTR break-even .... but most would expect that as/when that ME liquidity abates, and the tide goes out .... price will come down quite a bit 

 

Most would also expect a bottom, shortly before the US fed is forced into issuing a BTC backed debt instrument. The lower BTC goes, the easier it will be to deliver the required marketing 'bump' alongside implementation; the broader indexes are selling down, liquidity is draining, margin calls cannot be that far away.

 

A 60K floor is reasonable; we just expect to rise up to it, following an 'event'. For us ... re-entry will be primarily about keeping the funny money gains from o/g, versus whether BTC rises tomorrow. We just need a liquid parking spot, not in a broader market index, that is likely to hold its value for a time ... any subsequent rise is just bonus. 

 

Good luck 

 

SD  

 

 

 

 

It makes me wonder why Michael Saylor bought so much Bitcoin near the top, even though he might have political and informational advantages.

 

By the way, it’s interesting to observe how consensus works.

 

https://redblocks.supertestnet.org/

 

Watching development continue to move forward shows how powerful a monetary protocol can be. The winning pitch is at 14:07.

 

https://rumble.com/v76d7i2-cypher-tank-s01e05.html

 

USDT stablecoin native on bitcoin

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 7 by Dave86ch

[UK]

https://visserlabs.substack.com/p/when-buffetts-tide-goes-out-in-private

[james22]

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

 

Harsh words. Though IIRC, it was Charlie that made that pronouncement. I still prefer Warren and Charlie to Keiser though. 

 

A gentler way to make his point is that asset owners, those with access to debt financing, and those that create the money all benefit from a system of perpetual inflation while those who provide the capital for that debt financing and wage earners suffer. 

 

All Bitcoin does is end that systematic exploitation of those two classes via inflation. It doesn't end the already privileged positioning of asset owners, people with access to debt, and the money creators (though maybe this katter group should worry). All it does it prevents the total monetary exploitation by those three groups to get even further ahead. 

[Xerxes]

Anyone knows if she is single 
 

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

was going to say, I'm pretty this is fake. There weren't even 900k outstanding at that time, let alone a developed market place to buy it. 

 

But then when I went to quote you, the AI disclaimer came through. 

 

Lol

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

 

two views of seasonality and one of network adoption trends. 

 

 

Power/Law model and BTC/Gold ratio also pointing to a bottom. 

 

 

 

All models are wrong. Some are useful. But when nearly all of them are pointing to capitulation....

[james22]

Iran built a machine for converting cheap energy into hard currency under the noses of the most sophisticated financial surveillance apparatus in the world.

 

The machine worked. It worked for years, and it likely suppressed Bitcoin prices, if modestly, for every quarter it ran. 

 

https://newsletter.amuseonx.com/p/operation-epic-fury-may-have-done

[TwoCitiesCapital]

I did not appreciate Iran had so much surplus gas! 

[Xerxes]

3 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

I did not appreciate Iran had so much surplus gas! 

 

Iran has a lot of latent dormant potential. 

The biggest is the people itself. 
 

Natural gas fields are gigantic but I believe are mostly geared for domestic consumption. Qatar side of it geared for exports for obvious reasons, given very limited Qatari consumption. 

 

[Fly]

7 hours ago, james22 said:

Iran built a machine for converting cheap energy into hard currency under the noses of the most sophisticated financial surveillance apparatus in the world.

 

The machine worked. It worked for years, and it likely suppressed Bitcoin prices, if modestly, for every quarter it ran. 

 

https://newsletter.amuseonx.com/p/operation-epic-fury-may-have-done

 

No doubt Russia has an enormous BTC mining operation too. Probably China as well.

Edited March 20 by Fly

[james22]

7 hours ago, Fly said:

No doubt Russia has an enormous BTC mining operation too. Probably China as well.

 

Iran’s mining operation was not primarily a financial experiment. It was a demonstration that a sufficiently motivated state actor can construct a parallel monetary infrastructure using physical assets, namely, energy and computing hardware, that no financial sanction can directly target.

 

The US can freeze dollar accounts. It cannot freeze joules. It cannot embargo the mathematical relationship between electricity and cryptographic proof. Iran found the gap between those two realities and moved billions of dollars through it over the better part of a decade.

 

. . .

 

The deeper irony is that American sanctions policy, by severing Iran from the dollar system, may have inadvertently subsidized the development of exactly the kind of alternative monetary infrastructure that Washington most fears.

 

If you exclude a sophisticated adversary from the dollar, that adversary will find another instrument. Iran found Bitcoin. It is worth asking which other sanctioned states are already mining, and what happens to global crypto markets the next time one of them goes dark.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

#PermissionlessMoney

[scorpioncapital]

I read a while back Bessent saying the regime was fleeing like rats and that they were seeing crypto movements abroad..I wonder if this is the mined Bitcoin..he also said it would be recovered and the regime wouldn't get to keep the crypto..I wonder how they can do that ? 

[SharperDingaan]

19 hours ago, james22 said:

 

Iran’s mining operation was not primarily a financial experiment. It was a demonstration that a sufficiently motivated state actor can construct a parallel monetary infrastructure using physical assets, namely, energy and computing hardware, that no financial sanction can directly target.

 

The US can freeze dollar accounts. It cannot freeze joules. It cannot embargo the mathematical relationship between electricity and cryptographic proof. Iran found the gap between those two realities and moved billions of dollars through it over the better part of a decade.

 

. . .

 

The deeper irony is that American sanctions policy, by severing Iran from the dollar system, may have inadvertently subsidized the development of exactly the kind of alternative monetary infrastructure that Washington most fears.

 

If you exclude a sophisticated adversary from the dollar, that adversary will find another instrument. Iran found Bitcoin. It is worth asking which other sanctioned states are already mining, and what happens to global crypto markets the next time one of them goes dark.

 

'Friends' advise that it was a higher value/volume replacement for the Hawala system. A more anonymous version of L2 Lightning, handling much larger amounts ... and able to settle 'black' transactions without risk of exposure.

 

SD

[Dave86ch]

13 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

'Friends' advise that it was a higher value/volume replacement for the Hawala system. A more anonymous version of L2 Lightning, handling much larger amounts ... and able to settle 'black' transactions without risk of exposure.

 

SD

RGB+Lightning = No global state

[Fly]

On 3/21/2026 at 4:10 PM, scorpioncapital said:

I read a while back Bessent saying the regime was fleeing like rats and that they were seeing crypto movements abroad..I wonder if this is the mined Bitcoin..he also said it would be recovered and the regime wouldn't get to keep the crypto..I wonder how they can do that ? 

Doesn’t really work that way unless the Iranians were dumb enough to try moving BTC through centralized platforms where the US had some influence to freeze/take those funds. 
 

The only other way is to get access to the seed phrase used to set up the wallet itself. As long as it was created in a secure manner and you’re not storing it in a Google cloud document for instance then it is safe. 

[scorpioncapital]

Sorry I was wrong, apparently the quote was about wired funds: 

"

"As Treasury who carries out the sanctions we can see is we are now seeing the rats fleeing the ship because we can see millions, tens of millions of dollars being wired out of the country, snuck out of the country by the Iranian leadership," Bessent said in an interview with Newsmax.

"So they are abandoning ship, and we are seeing it come into banks and financial institutions all over the world," the Treasury Secretary added."

 

But I'm shocked Iranian elites and leaders have access to wire and bank accounts abroad. As for the crypto, it really makes one wonder if it is so confiscation proof for the good guys, it must be for the bad guys. I wonder if this will cause regulatory issues. Will the world allow bitcoin to exist in the hands of really nefarious actors? It seems even more confiscation proof than gold. you can bomb a gold bunker, can't really steal a btc seed so easily.

[rogermunibond]

$GOOG Quantum AI team with a new paper on much lower resources needed to break ECC-256

 

https://quantumai.google/static/site-assets/downloads/cryptocurrency-whitepaper.pdf

 

Followed by another team from Oratomic, Caltech, and UC Berkeley show quantum computers can break crypto with just 10,000 reconfigurable atomic qubits.

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

3 hours ago, rogermunibond said:

$GOOG Quantum AI team with a new paper on much lower resources needed to break ECC-256

 

https://quantumai.google/static/site-assets/downloads/cryptocurrency-whitepaper.pdf

 

Followed by another team from Oratomic, Caltech, and UC Berkeley show quantum computers can break crypto with just 10,000 reconfigurable atomic qubits.

 

Yep seems kinda bad

 

 

 

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 hour ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

Yep seems kinda bad

 

 

Theoretically "can be done" is quite a bit different than "will be feasible in real life". 

 

We'll see. I'm not expert in this space, but was my understanding the primary "flaw" this exploits is using known data from the public key. 

 

So all you have to do is move your BTC when you spend it or have a separate "savings" wallet you don't spend from and  do you daily transactions on lightning. 

 

And that's before they do any BIPs to protect the network further. The only real coins at risk here are those that are neglected/lost form wallets that have previously sent transactions to the network. 

[nsx5200]

1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

Theoretically "can be done" is quite a bit different than "will be feasible in real life". 

 

Note that a lot of times in these type of problems, sometimes it's good enough to reduce the search space down to one where it's doable to brute-force/solve with other methods.  Described more generically, these types of problems can be solved with a series of tools/method to arrive at the solution.  Advancements in Mathematics are done this way, and this BTC 'problem' is no different than other mathematic problems.  This potential 'flaw' is not present in physical gold, so to say that BTC is digital, better version of gold is not an accurate representation.  Each has its own set of pros and cons.