Is Europe becoming uninvestable?

[SharperDingaan]

2 hours ago, Dinar said:

You need more people?  Encourage Germans to have kids.  If you take in 10MM Syrians/Turks/Pakistanis/Egyptians/Africans, you will turn the country into the disaster that these countries are.  I can understand letting Poles in, may be Ukrainians or a few Russians, but millions of Arabs/Africans/Pakistanis - that's insanity.  

 

Cultures 'breathe', and they do it via population growth and immigration. When nations economically expand too quickly, age too quickly, have a long-term birth rate/fertile women < 2.00, etc. the worker shortfall has to be made up via waves of immigration. That cumulative immigration over time, causes the culture to 'breathe', and evolve with the times. Not a bad thing, but it means continuous change, and many aren't good with change.

 

Long time ago, a Canadian Mountie had to be male, white, 6' 2"+, wear the postcard uniform, and be pretty much single. Of course, the times changed, the stream of suitable recruits dried up, and the RCMP were forced to either disband, or adapt. Today, the Canadian Mountie looks a whole lot different, and in a good way.

 

At the time the decision was made, people were outraged!; unable to get past the reality that the postcard vision was history. Time goes by, those outraged are now all either dead or in nursing homes, and it's just no longer an issue.

 

Of course, if you're trying to take power ... it's not what you want to promote.

 

SD

 

 

  

[cubsfan]

1 minute ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

Cultures 'breathe', and they do it via population growth and immigration. When nations economically expand too quickly, age too quickly, have a long-term birth rate/fertile women < 2.00, etc. the worker shortfall has to be made up via waves of immigration. That cumulative immigration over time, causes the culture to 'breathe', and evolve with the times. Not a bad thing, but it means continuous change, and many aren't good with change.

 

Long time ago, a Canadian Mountie had to be male, white, 6' 2"+, wear the postcard uniform, and be pretty much single. Of course, the times changed, the stream of suitable recruits dried up, and the RCMP were forced to either disband, or adapt. Today, the Canadian Mountie looks a whole lot different, and in a good way.

 

At the time the decision was made, people were outraged!; unable to get past the reality that the postcard vision was history. Time goes by, those outraged are now all either dead or in nursing homes, and it's just no longer an issue.

 

Of course, if you're trying to take power ... it's not what you want to promote.

 

SD

 

 

  

 

Assimilation into the host's culture is the key. When this does not happen and radicalism takes over - your immigration policy is a train wreck.

 

Your radicals turn the country into the country they were fleeing.

 

Europe is slowly waking up,,, the USA has woken up before it destroys our country.

[james22]

13 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

Cultures 'breathe' . . .

 

Enjoy living under Sharia law.

[Dalal.Holdings]

1 hour ago, fareastwarriors said:

 

FT: Reversal of fortunes: Europe’s thriving south and stagnant north

 

 

Love that this graph makes 1.0% real GDP growth look impressive.  Works for Europe though

[Dalal.Holdings]

Immigrants who assimilate vs those who don’t. I think Europe has problems distinguishing these.
 

The U.S. does a much better job assimilating its immigrants…

[cubsfan]

Successful civilizations exist to protect the vulnerable - women, children and the elderly.

 

This fundamental social contract is being violated in many western countries.

[LC]

3 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

This - destroying your culture by large scale immigration of young men that will not respect your culture is disastrous. You are ignoring your duty to your citizens with uncontrolled immigration. 

 

You are simply changing your country forever.

 

Take a look in the "new parent" thread. 

 

It's amazing how many folks are able to just quit their jobs, take extended (unpaid) leave...to raise a kid. And we wonder why birthrates are declining in the west.

 

This is theCOBF where members are I assume wealthier than the  average. 

 

If we want birthrates to increase in the west, the wealth curve needs to flatten and more money needs to flow to the middle classes.

[cubsfan]

17 minutes ago, LC said:

 

Take a look in the "new parent" thread. 

 

It's amazing how many folks are able to just quit their jobs, take extended (unpaid) leave...to raise a kid. And we wonder why birthrates are declining in the west.

 

This is theCOBF where members are I assume wealthier than the  average. 

 

If we want birthrates to increase in the west, the wealth curve needs to flatten and more money needs to flow to the middle classes.

 

100%.  We need to take care of our own, so they can afford to have larger families.

[SharperDingaan]

51 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

Immigrants who assimilate vs those who don’t. I think Europe has problems distinguishing these.
The U.S. does a much better job assimilating its immigrants…

 

Canada and the US did a lot better than Europe, primarily 'cause there was so much space, it was far from Europe, and there were way more critters than there were people. Wherever one was from, one literally either banded together to survive/thrive, or croaked. The classes were forced to mix/melt together, success did the talking for you, and the most ambitious young men/women fled the constraints of the 'old country' to make their fortune in the  'new world'. Change.

 

In the 'old country' millions of people live in a small space, all on top of each other. Everything ONLY goes well so long as there is a swim lane for everyone, and everyone stays in their lane! Mass immigration, and keeping those immigrants separate in ghettos, screws up the order!  No change.

 

When you run out of space, one creates change by burning down the old, and being part of the rebuild.

 

There is a reason why the disruptive have been so successful.   

 

SD

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, LC said:

 

Take a look in the "new parent" thread. 

 

It's amazing how many folks are able to just quit their jobs, take extended (unpaid) leave...to raise a kid. And we wonder why birthrates are declining in the west.

 

This is theCOBF where members are I assume wealthier than the  average. 

 

If we want birthrates to increase in the west, the wealth curve needs to flatten and more money needs to flow to the middle classes.

No.  What needs to happen are: schools that are run for kids and not teachers' unions, that teach useful skills.  End college subsidies, and encourage people to learn trades - electricians, plumbers and carpenters make great money.  Stop importing cheap labor.  Gut welfare, and eliminate income taxes on first 50K of salary for singles, $100K for couples, and say $150K for couple with kids.

[james22]

19 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

The classes were forced to mix/melt together . . .

 

No, cultural confidence (the American Dream) drove assimilation.

 

47 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

Mass immigration, and keeping those immigrants separate in ghettos, screws up the order!

 

Offer immigrants a European Dream and you'll stand a chance. 

 

Without confidence in your culture they'll supplant yours.

 

19 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

When you run out of space, one creates change by burning down the old, and being part of the rebuild.

 

Yeah, I'm NOT interested in investing anywhere burning down.

 

19 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

There is a reason why the disruptive have been so successful.   

 

 

Especially not somewhere confusing the collapse of Western civilization with creative destruction. Yeesh.

[cubsfan]

19 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

Especially not somewhere confusing the collapse of Western civilization with creative destruction. Yeesh.

 

Civilizations break down as a result of hundreds of small acts over time.

 

- redefining theft as > $950

- giving drugs to drug addicts out of "compassion"

- letting the homeless to live in your dry tinderbox chaparral and start fires

- letting your immigrant men marry 12 year old girls

- letting strange men into women's private spaces

- eliminating free speech because someone joked/insulted Allah

- letting crowds burn down your cities for "social justice"

 

None of this is "progress" or tolerance - but destruction of civilization through progressive nonsense.

[Dinar]

4 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

Cultures 'breathe', and they do it via population growth and immigration. When nations economically expand too quickly, age too quickly, have a long-term birth rate/fertile women < 2.00, etc. the worker shortfall has to be made up via waves of immigration. That cumulative immigration over time, causes the culture to 'breathe', and evolve with the times. Not a bad thing, but it means continuous change, and many aren't good with change.

 

Long time ago, a Canadian Mountie had to be male, white, 6' 2"+, wear the postcard uniform, and be pretty much single. Of course, the times changed, the stream of suitable recruits dried up, and the RCMP were forced to either disband, or adapt. Today, the Canadian Mountie looks a whole lot different, and in a good way.

 

At the time the decision was made, people were outraged!; unable to get past the reality that the postcard vision was history. Time goes by, those outraged are now all either dead or in nursing homes, and it's just no longer an issue.

 

Of course, if you're trying to take power ... it's not what you want to promote.

 

SD

 

 

  

Read this and tell me is this the immigration that is needed in Europe or US?  https://mishtalk.com/economics/elon-musk-and-x-will-help-crush-eu-and-uk-censorship/

 

And before you say these are a few bad apples, ask yourself what would happen to a young woman who would not dress modestly and walk in a  bazaar in a Muslim nation?  Answer - rape.    Even in the USSR, in Muslim republics, women could not dress "immodestly" in heavily Muslim parts of the city lest they be attacked.  

[james22]

7 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

None of this is "progress" or tolerance - but destruction of civilization through progressive nonsense.

 

In a culturally confident age, the British in India were faced with the practice of "suttee" -- the tradition of burning widows on the funeral pyres of their husbands. General Sir Charles Napier was impeccably multicultural: "You say that it is your custom to burn widows. Very well. We also have a custom: when men burn a woman alive, we tie a rope around their necks and we hang them. Build your funeral pyre; beside it, my carpenters will build a gallows. You may follow your custom. And then we will follow ours."

India today is better off without suttee. If you don't agree with that, if you think that's just dead-white-male Eurocentrism, fine. But I don't think you really do believe that. Non-judgmental multiculturalism is an obvious fraud, and was subliminally accepted on that basis.

 

After all, most adherents to the idea that all cultures are equal don't want to live in anything but an advanced Western society. Multiculturalism means your kid has to learn some wretched tribal dirge for the school holiday concert instead of getting to sing "Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer," or that your holistic masseuse uses techniques developed from Native American spirituality, but not that you or anyone you care about should have to live in an African or Native American society. It's a quintessential piece of progressive humbug.

 

But if you think you genuinely believe that suttee is just an example of the rich, vibrant tapestry of indigenous cultures, you ought to consider what your pleasant suburb would be like if 25, 30, 48 percent of the people around you really believed in it too. Multiculturalism was conceived by the Western elites not to celebrate all cultures but to deny their own: it is, thus, the real suicide bomb.

The rest of us -- the ones who think you can make judgments about competing cultures on liberty, religious freedom, the rule of law -- need to recover the cultural cool that General Napier demonstrated.

 

Mark Steyn

[Dalal.Holdings]

1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

Canada and the US did a lot better than Europe, primarily 'cause there was so much space, it was far from Europe, and there were way more critters than there were people. Wherever one was from, one literally either banded together to survive/thrive, or croaked. The classes were forced to mix/melt together, success did the talking for you, and the most ambitious young men/women fled the constraints of the 'old country' to make their fortune in the  'new world'. Change.

 

In the 'old country' millions of people live in a small space, all on top of each other. Everything ONLY goes well so long as there is a swim lane for everyone, and everyone stays in their lane! Mass immigration, and keeping those immigrants separate in ghettos, screws up the order!  No change.

 

When you run out of space, one creates change by burning down the old, and being part of the rebuild.

 

There is a reason why the disruptive have been so successful.   

 

SD

 

Yep, neighborhoods in Europe look like immigrant ghettos which is a problem if you want to assimilate them…this is much moreso the case than Chinatowns or Little Italy’s of the U.S. (many of which are historical remnants)

[LC]

2 hours ago, Dinar said:

No.  What needs to happen are: schools that are run for kids and not teachers' unions, that teach useful skills.  End college subsidies, and encourage people to learn trades - electricians, plumbers and carpenters make great money.  Stop importing cheap labor.  Gut welfare, and eliminate income taxes on first 50K of salary for singles, $100K for couples, and say $150K for couple with kids.

 

If the goal is a large, healthy middle class, then a larger proportion of the wealth generated in this country needs to accrue to them. I assume we can both agree there.

 

If you think the way to accomplish that is more tradespeople, less education, and less welfare, OK that's your opinion. 

 

I'll just say that over the last 30 years, the middle 60% of the US population has seen their share of national wealth shrink by 10%.

 

Where did that 10% go? Has the bottom 20% seen their share of wealth growth by 10%?

I think you know the answer here. 

[Dinar]

25 minutes ago, LC said:

 

If the goal is a large, healthy middle class, then a larger proportion of the wealth generated in this country needs to accrue to them. I assume we can both agree there.

 

If you think the way to accomplish that is more tradespeople, less education, and less welfare, OK that's your opinion. 

 

I'll just say that over the last 30 years, the middle 60% of the US population has seen their share of national wealth shrink by 10%.

 

Where did that 10% go? Has the bottom 20% seen their share of wealth growth by 10%?

I think you know the answer here. 

I lived in a country where everyone was in theory equal, and there was no food in the shops.  You don't want equality.  I am happy to pay taxes for efficiently run and good schools, police and fire departments.  I don't want to pay taxes to pay for Medicaid on which 37% of NYS population is on.   Taxes on entrepreneurs in NYC, NJ, Hawaii and California are at 54%+.  In some case, marginal tax rates can approach 60%.  How high would you like tax rates to be and what would be the impact?

[LC]

Equal is not the goal - there will never be equal. 

 

The widening inequality is what causes these issues. That is what needs to stop or we all better get used to Fentanyl Phil on our doorstep.

 

Taxes just stem some of the bleeding but the root cause is that we're living in an oligopoly. How do we fix that? I don't know but I'm not sure more plumbers is the answer (but to your point it's also not a bad thing, either) 

 

Education? My folks were Bronx public high school teachers and they barely made a living - probably not the union abuse you are thinking of. But they always said the biggest roadblock to teaching kids were the parents. Shitty kids generally had shitty parents. 

 

Solutions? Maybe more regulation (and enforcement) at the corporate level - cutting into corporate profits and instead distributing that as wages? I mean, haven't we seen corporate profits grow to what Buffett previously called unsustainable?

 

I would say, probably letting Uber label drivers as "contractors", Amazon and Walmart get away with paying workers 13$/hr, doing stuff like monitoring bathroom breaks, working them so cheap that they're forced to be on welfare just to get by...that is probably is not the answer.

 

We've got tax enforcement focused on bullshit W2s rather than complex avoidance afforded only by billionaires and billion dollar companies. What message does that send? A legal system with so many loops hoops and swoops that what is even the point...I mean isn't our convicted felon president supposed to serve a sentence? Isn't that what felons do?

 

We've got problems up the wazoo and we've all sold out rather than try and fix them

[Spekulatius]

European stocks I have bought recently:

HO.PA (Thales)

BNR.DE / BNTGY (Brenntag)

APR.W (auto retail)

EVO.ST (Evolution)

JDEP (coffee, tea)

ELIS.PA (uniforms, laundry service)

UD.MI (Unidata)

 

Most are smallish positions or adds,

Edited Wednesday at 01:07 AM by Spekulatius

[Charlie]

A very interesting proposal regarding the German election comes from the FDP. They could govern together with the CDU if they get 5% of the votes.

I think the CDU wants to govern with the FDP. Currently they are at 4%.

 

The FDP wants to make equity investments after holding for some years tax-free!!! 

 

https://www.fdp.de/sites/default/files/2024-12/fdp-wahlprogramm_2025.pdf

Edited Wednesday at 06:58 AM by Charlie

[TwoCitiesCapital]

All of this left-right talk on the Nazis seems to assume that the political spectrum is a straight line. 

 

I tend to view it as a circle. And radical socialism on the left is NOT far removed from radical fascism on the right. 

[Blake Hampton]

5 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

All of this left-right talk on the Nazis seems to assume that the political spectrum is a straight line. 

 

I tend to view it as a circle. And radical socialism on the left is NOT far removed from radical fascism on the right. 

I agree, they do seem very similar

[TwoCitiesCapital]

14 hours ago, LC said:

Equal is not the goal - there will never be equal. 

 

The widening inequality is what causes these issues. That is what needs to stop or we all better get used to Fentanyl Phil on our doorstep.

 

Taxes just stem some of the bleeding but the root cause is that we're living in an oligopoly. How do we fix that? I don't know but I'm not sure more plumbers is the answer (but to your point it's also not a bad thing, either) 

 

Education? My folks were Bronx public high school teachers and they barely made a living - probably not the union abuse you are thinking of. But they always said the biggest roadblock to teaching kids were the parents. Shitty kids generally had shitty parents. 

 

Solutions? Maybe more regulation (and enforcement) at the corporate level - cutting into corporate profits and instead distributing that as wages? I mean, haven't we seen corporate profits grow to what Buffett previously called unsustainable?

 

I would say, probably letting Uber label drivers as "contractors", Amazon and Walmart get away with paying workers 13$/hr, doing stuff like monitoring bathroom breaks, working them so cheap that they're forced to be on welfare just to get by...that is probably is not the answer.

 

We've got tax enforcement focused on bullshit W2s rather than complex avoidance afforded only by billionaires and billion dollar companies. What message does that send? A legal system with so many loops hoops and swoops that what is even the point...I mean isn't our convicted felon president supposed to serve a sentence? Isn't that what felons do?

 

We've got problems up the wazoo and we've all sold out rather than try and fix them

 

+1 

 

The lack of real wage growth over the last 40 years had been problematic. As has all of the running in place to just make back the value the $ has lost. 

 

An anecdote that I think encompasses our environment - Amazon stopped using FedEx to deliver packages a few years back in my area. Instead, they started using local contractors who are lacking in the same professionalism that FedEx used as well as lacking in infrastructure/systems like getting access to multi-unit buildings. 

 

Packages are regularly marked as delivered, but don't show up for days... probably because the driver is waiting for a time to opportunistically tailgate in behind someone during the day. Or, some of the lazier drivers simply leave the packages outside on the sidewalk or mark them as undeliverable and return the order.

 

Multiple complaints to Amazon's customer service for my packages resulted in me being defaulted back to FedEx for my deliveries. But not the rest of the building for some reason (~110+ units). 

 

So a few nights ago, I was called by a member of the building about a theft in the lobby (I sit on the board of my HOA). Evidently, the Amazon delivery driver left three crates of packages out in the lobby, unattended, and they were stolen by someone. The complaint was that the board needed to do something about building security and to give the delivery drivers somewhere secure to deliver to. 

 

For some reason, in 2025, our HOA board is expected to subsidize Amazon's loss and/or the cost of an effective delivery as a result of Amazon intentionally defaulting on quality. We don't have this issue with UPS, USPS, or FedEx. 

 

Amazon is owned by one of the richest men in the world. Amazon pioneered this business model. There is no reason that Amazon can't do right. But they don't want to do it right - they want do it it cheaply.  

 

The end result is consumers lose out by having  expectations of an appropriate delivery that is regularly not met. No two day delivery and sometimes no delivery at all. 

 

The HOA board loses out as we're the ones expected to pick up the slack that Amazon left for some reason - but in a way that doesn't raise HOA fees. 

 

The employees lose because there are fewer high quality jobs with high quality standards and high quality pay and just a bunch of shit-tier work/pay positions who aren't held accountable to anything other than # of deliveries "made" in an hour. 

 

And Amazon makes more money by keeping an extra 0.1% of margin. 

 

For all of the b*thing I see about Europe being uninvestable because lawmakers stifling innovation - I think America could use a bit more of it. Lol

 

The answer has got to be somewhere in the middle and not in letting people with hundreds of billions of dollars make a few billion by fucking over communities, workers, and consumers to clip the penny on margins. 

Edited Wednesday at 03:22 PM by TwoCitiesCapital

[SharperDingaan]

'Immigration' has always been used as a wedge towards obtaining power. The more one can keep the different communities 'separate', and the less face-to-face 'mixing' in everyday life, the more effectively it can be weaponized; in some places, it's just easier to manipulate than in others. Millions of people, across factory floors and offices, work alongside immigrants every day .. with little issue; but oddly, that's seldom if ever mentioned  

 

The reality is that within Europe there are just too many people, in too small a place, hence everything has to be very 'controlled'. If that isn't for you, then just visit, as you really need to either live or invest elsewhere. 

 

SD

 

 

 

 

  

[Dinar]

2 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

'Immigration' has always been used as a wedge towards obtaining power. The more one can keep the different communities 'separate', and the less face-to-face 'mixing' in everyday life, the more effectively it can be weaponized; in some places, it's just easier to manipulate than in others. Millions of people, across factory floors and offices, work alongside immigrants every day .. with little issue; but oddly, that's seldom if ever mentioned  

 

The reality is that within Europe there are just too many people, in too small a place, hence everything has to be very 'controlled'. If that isn't for you, then just visit, as you really need to either live or invest elsewhere. 

 

SD

 

 

 

 

  

Yeah, until the children of immigrants riot or demand special privileges.  Or like the Pakistani gangs rape tens of thousands of English girls, but I guess that's ok, right SD?