Is Europe becoming uninvestable?

[Dalal.Holdings]

13 minutes ago, Loss Horizon said:

 

Everyone is a fascist when put in the right environment.

 

I don't see a reason to argue, I know all the talking points very well. "Immigrants", "transgenders and gender studies", "welfare state", "bureaucracy", "overregulation", "lack of technology and innovation", "bad politicians" - that one has no limits, "censorship and lack of freedom of speech", "laziness", "liberals", "eco terrorists", "green agenda", "Islam", "socialists", "economy stagnation", "Covid Hoax", "free riding on US defense", "replacing of white Europeans with people with darker skin". There is probably more coming up every day, people are very inventive.

 

I have of course my view on some issues. However none of them ever took any attention from Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, whose company is in the name of this forum. I don't know why it's here.

I prefer "GDP", "Productivity", " energy prices", "defense spending", "VC investment", "profits". Those are relevant to investors and guys like Warren and Charlie. Don't try to create straw-men.

 

Europe is not well. The first step to fixing that is acknowledging it.

 

Straight from Draghi:

 

https://commission.europa.eu/document/download/97e481fd-2dc3-412d-be4c-f152a8232961_en?filename=The future of European competitiveness _ A competitiveness strategy for Europe.pdf

.

 

Hard to deny reality when it stares you in the face....

 

If Europe addresses these things, then investing in Europe will bode very well for many, many years. That's why I am interested in this topic. But it's still an "IF".

Edited December 7, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[John Hjorth]

40 minutes ago, Loss Horizon said:

... I don't see a reason to argue, I know all the talking points very well. "Immigrants", "transgenders and gender studies", "welfare state", "bureaucracy", "overregulation", "lack of technology and innovation", "bad politicians" - that one has no limits, "censorship and lack of freedom of speech", "laziness", "liberals", "eco terrorists", "green agenda", "Islam", "socialists", "economy stagnation", "Covid Hoax", "free riding on US defense", "replacing of white Europeans with people with darker skin". There is probably more coming up every day, people are very inventive.

 

I have of course my view on some issues. However none of them ever took any attention from Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, whose company is in the name of this forum. I don't know why it's here.

 

*chuckle*!  -Just to let you know, that you now have a new fan! And a belated welcome to CofB&F to you, @Loss Horizon ! 

[Loss Horizon]

52 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

I prefer "GDP", "Productivity", " energy prices", "defense spending", "VC investment", "profits". Those are relevant to investors and guys like Warren and Charlie. Don't try to create straw-men.

 

Europe is not well. The first step to fixing that is acknowledging it.

 

Straight from Draghi:

 

https://commission.europa.eu/document/download/97e481fd-2dc3-412d-be4c-f152a8232961_en?filename=The future of European competitiveness _ A competitiveness strategy for Europe.pdf

.

 

Hard to deny reality when it stares you in the face....

 

If Europe addresses these things, then investing in Europe will bode very well for many, many years. That's why I am interested in this topic. But it's still an "IF".

 

If you used gas prices up to December 2025 I would believe that you are interested in the topic and invested time into analysis.

 

That's the most important thing happening in the last years. Russia played the card of cutting of the gas suddenly and completely, sacrificing its biggest source of revenue, aiming to destroy European industry. And many believed that it will do a critical blow, because dependency was too big. But the bureaucrats managed to resolve gas supplies quickly and brought the prices down in a couple of years without Russia, which was not considered possible. Europe quietly won the energy war, somehow preventing recession and gas shortages.

 

I would say more about other parts, but I don't believe you are interested in the discussion.

Edited December 7, 2025 by Loss Horizon

[Marco Van Basten]

2 hours ago, Loss Horizon said:

 

Everyone is a fascist when put in the right environment.

 

I don't see a reason to argue, I know all the talking points very well. "Immigrants", "transgenders and gender studies", "welfare state", "bureaucracy", "overregulation", "lack of technology and innovation", "bad politicians" - that one has no limits, "censorship and lack of freedom of speech", "laziness", "liberals", "eco terrorists", "green agenda", "Islam", "socialists", "economy stagnation", "Covid Hoax", "free riding on US defense", "replacing of white Europeans with people with darker skin". There is probably more coming up every day, people are very inventive.

 

I have of course my view on some issues. However none of them ever took any attention from Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, whose company is in the name of this forum. I don't know why it's here.

Actually, not everyone, you perhaps, but not everyone.  Janucz Korczak wasn't one for instance.  You make a lot of assertions, such as people in the USSR believed in their superiority over the West.  Well, guess what?  I lived in the USSR and I don't recall people believing that we were superior to the West, despite the propaganda.  In any case, what are you trying to prove here?  I read your messages and I still don't understand what point you are trying to get across.  

[Charlie]

I think what Europe really need is more innovativeness like in California.

 

Easier said than done....

[Charlie]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-says-204902614.html

 

“If they fragment, then you can say that America first will not be around anymore,” Dimon said. “It will hurt us more than anybody else because they are a major ally in every single way, including common values, which are really important.”

He said the US should help.

“We need a long-term strategy to help them become strong,” Dimon said. “A weak Europe is bad for us.”

 

We are awaiting your help, not tariffs theft. 

 

Trump is kicking other countries in recessions with the tariffs

and then lecturing them what is wrong with them!!!

Edited December 7, 2025 by Charlie

[Dalal.Holdings]

8 hours ago, Loss Horizon said:

 

If you used gas prices up to December 2025 I would believe that you are interested in the topic and invested time into analysis.

 

That's the most important thing happening in the last years. Russia played the card of cutting of the gas suddenly and completely, sacrificing its biggest source of revenue, aiming to destroy European industry. And many believed that it will do a critical blow, because dependency was too big. But the bureaucrats managed to resolve gas supplies quickly and brought the prices down in a couple of years without Russia, which was not considered possible. Europe quietly won the energy war, somehow preventing recession and gas shortages.

 

I would say more about other parts, but I don't believe you are interested in the discussion.

So you want me to use live prices that are not readily available?? I quoted from the Draghi report which was published last year. Here is a WSJ article from 5 days ago on the topic which was posted here by @NnnnotSoSmart and I have quoted from: (https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/europes-green-energy-rush-slashed-emissionsand-crippled-the-economy-e65a1a07).

 

If you have Dec 2025 figures showing European industrial energy prices have become comparable to US/China, then go ahead and post them here. Fact is that it has cost more in Europe for many years, even prepandemic. Unless you post them, I believe you are not interested in a serious discussion. And I am sure there is some improvement since 2022 thanks to American LNG and Norwegian gas.

 

And why are European energy prices higher? Why did European officials remain dependent on Russia--even after Crimea invasion? Why did Germany shut down nuclear plants in this  time? Why did UK impose onerous rules and taxes on North Sea drilling? Should there not be calling out those responsible? The environmentalist radicals who have lots of pull with European politicians have created this situation. And yet, even now on January 1 a new "carbon tax" CBAM will come into effect that will make this worse (https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/case-delaying-application-eus-carbon-border-levy-electricity).

 

The key issue for an investor in a European automaker, steelmaker, chemical company is the input costs these industries face.

 

If you are VW in Germany, you must now build cars from more expensive "green" steel while consuming more expensive electricity to power your factories, and employing more expensive labor while dealing with more onerous regulations. Meanwhile, BYD cars made with much more CO2 emitting steel, made in factories powered by coal electricity, heavily subsidized by CCP, cheaper labor, fewer regs can now come in and be sold in Europe with slight tariffs on it.

 

And incredible that despite this, EU is set to enact CBAM which will further increase the cost of steel, electricity, etc in Europe even though Europe's global co2 emissions are negligible ! Europe's competitiveness is being strangled by its own regulations and politicians and it is highly relevant for an investor.

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/europes-green-energy-rush-slashed-emissionsand-crippled-the-economy-e65a1a07

 

Key line from the article on how European green agenda can make global CO2 emissions worse, not better:

 

Quote

The policies could even unintentionally result in higher emissions globally, some economists and chemical industry executives say. If European factories close as a result of high energy costs, their production is likely to be replaced by imports from places like China, where the carbon footprint for those products is far higher—even before shipping is calculated, according to Oxford Economics.

 

[formthirteen]

6 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

Key line from the article on how European green agenda can make global CO2 emissions worse, not better:

 

Quick research, non-scientific LLM response:

 

Quote

 

2024 CO₂ Intensity Comparison (Mt CO₂eq / billion PPS)

Region	GHG Emissions (2024)	GDP PPP (2024)	CO₂ Intensity
EU27	3,165 Mt CO₂eq	~$28.0 trillion	~0.11 Mt/bn$
China	15,536 Mt CO₂eq	~$37.1 trillion	~0.42 Mt/bn$
USA	5,913 Mt CO₂eq	~$28.8 trillion	~0.21 Mt/bn$

Data Sources:

• Emissions: EDGAR 2025 Report (JRC/European Commission)
• GDP PPP: IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2024)

Key Findings:

In 2024, China's CO₂ intensity remains 68% above the global average, while the USA and Europe have energy intensity that has decreased by more than 40% and 54% respectively since 2010, remaining well below the global average. Enerdata

 

EU is less than 6% of world's GDP.

[Dalal.Holdings]

13 minutes ago, formthirteen said:

 

Quick research, non-scientific LLM response:

 

EU is less than 6% of world's GDP.

Did you read the quote from the article? If Europeans buy cars made in China instead of Europe, the carbon footprint of the Chinese made vehicle is much higher. If European industry is replaced by Chinese industry, CO2 emissions go up because Chinese industry emits more CO2 for every product (and that’s not including shipping). This is why onerous taxes, regulations that are harming European steel, chemical, automakers can actually make emissions worse if those industries shut down & relocate to China…

 

And yes, Europe’s CO2 emissions are already very low which is why its fixation on reducing further makes no sense !

 

Edited December 7, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[formthirteen]

6 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

Did you read the quote from the article? If Europeans buy cars made in China instead of Europe, the carbon footprint of the Chinese made vehicle is much higher.

 

Yes, that's exactly what my quick research shows. Europe's carbon intensity is ~1/4th of China's, on average. 

[formthirteen]

And by shipping resource intensive industry to China (now ~30% of world's CO2), Europe has not reduced global emissions; it has merely relocated them. Great success!

Edited December 7, 2025 by formthirteen

[Eng12345]

56 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/europes-green-energy-rush-slashed-emissionsand-crippled-the-economy-e65a1a07

 

Key line from the article on how European green agenda can make global CO2 emissions worse, not better:

 

 

My conspiracy theory is that the green movement has always been an Eastern world influence/propaganda campaign.  

 

I'm pretty left leaning on all things with the exception of this/energy. 

Edited December 7, 2025 by Eng12345

[NnnnotSoSmart]

Op Ed in Saturday's WSJ:

 

What’s the Matter With Scotland?

Novelist Allan Massie ponders how the birthplace of Adam Smith and Walter Scott declined into a depressing culture of dependence, passivity and stagnation.

 

"It’s unfair to judge a people based on its political class. Scots are wiser, wittier and humbler than theirs. But it is fair to say that Scotland’s political attitude is conformist. European cultural dictates—on climate, gender and so on—meet with few challenges in the country’s government or in the venerated universities of Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen. The pro-independence Nationalists might be called reactionary in their conformism: eager for separation from the U.K. but only to follow Brussels more diligently; determined to fashion their own welfare state but not their own army and navy.

 

How did the birthplace of Adam Smith, Walter Scott and innumerable British imperial commanders transform itself into a nanny state whose authorities persecute its only resident literary superstar, the English-born J.K. Rowling, for heterodoxy against transgenderism? That sounds harsh, but it’s a valid question. I have pondered it, in one form or another, for a long time."

 

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/whats-the-matter-with-scotland-e5500cf6?st=DUa5AM&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

[Dalal.Holdings]

3 hours ago, Eng12345 said:

My conspiracy theory is that the green movement has always been an Eastern world influence/propaganda campaign.  

 

I'm pretty left leaning on all things with the exception of this/energy. 

Hanlon's Razor: "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity."

 

 

Like I've said, these environmentalists are people who have been indoctrinated at universities. They do not think like engineers. They do not think rationally, but ideologically. They may have good intentions, but "the road to hell is paved with good intentions".

 

They think that conservatives and anyone without their (useless) fancy degrees is beneath them and they are entitled to rule them. They work in the EU, NGOs, lobbyists, nonprofits and have seriously damaged their continent with plain old stupidity and arrogance (dangerous combination).

 

There is hope though--some are realizing & reversing their mistakes (from the article):

 

Quote

Some green entrepreneurs in the U.K. have started pushing politicians to ensure the oil-and-gas industry can help ease the transition. Greg Jackson, founder of Octopus Energy, which has championed wind farms, called on the U.K. to renew offshore oil-and-gas exploration in the North Sea, so that it doesn’t have to ship gas in from across the globe. Dale Vince, founder of Ecotricity and a climate activist who used to fund the protest group Just Stop Oil, wants lower taxes for existing oil-and-gas projects in the North Sea.

 

Edited December 7, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[cubsfan]

31 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

Like I've said, these environmentalists are people who have been indoctrinated at universities. They do not think like engineers. They do not think rationally, but ideologically. They may have good intentions, but "the road to hell is paved with good intentions".

 

It just amazes me that you even have to argue this point, they are so dead set on their climate ideology.

 

Like Max Planck said - "Science advances one funeral at a time".

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://constitutionofinnovation.eu

 

Some folks are starting to get it. Luis Garicano the former MEP economist at LSE (who wrote the piece on EU rulemaking) has written a manifesto to get Europe back on track:

The Constitution of Innovation.

 

It is worth a read.

 

Europe bounced back strongly from the ruins of war in 1945. No reason it can't do it again with the right motivations...

 

Quote

In 1945, Europe was ruined. Average incomes were 22 percent lower than the United States at the start of the war; by the end that gap had grown to 75 percent. These economies were different in kind, too. In 1950, for every farmer in America there were 2.7 manufacturing workers, compared to just 1.3 in Germany and 0.92 in France.¹1. From the GGDC 10-Sector Database.

But rather than stay poorer, as one might have expected, Europe rapidly rebuilt itself. Not just did it reach its previous levels of development within nine years, it then blew past them. Even though the decades after the war saw some of the fastest growth in American history, Europe grew much faster. In thirty years after 1950, the core European economies grew so fast that consumption per capita tripled while their citizens worked 400 fewer hours per year.²2. Bergeaud, Antonin, Gilbert Cette, and Rémy Lecat. Productivity trends in advanced countries between 1890 and 2012, Review of Income and Wealth 62, no. 3 (2016): 420-444.

Part of this growth was catch-up: converging on the frontier America had set for us. But part of it was pushing the technology frontier forward. By the end of the 1970s, Europe was mass-producing jet engines and nuclear power plants. This success was not an accident; it was ‘constituted’ through a set of common beliefs, proved principles, and appropriate practices that stimulated innovation.³3. As in Friedrich Hayek’s 1960 book, The Constitution of Liberty, we use ‘constitution’ to mean the basic principles and practices needed for innovation and prosperity to return to Europe, not a legal document.

 

Edited December 8, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Sweet]

19 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/europes-green-energy-rush-slashed-emissionsand-crippled-the-economy-e65a1a07

 

Key line from the article on how European green agenda can make global CO2 emissions worse, not better:

 

 

This has been pointed out for years and yet the dipshits don’t do anything about.

 

If going green means deindustrialising your own territory for those same industries to appear elsewhere without such green regulations then it’s a total failure.

 

Two approaches, if you are going to make energy more expensive then you have to tariff imported industrials products to make your industry competitive.  The other option is widespread nuclear baseload.

[Dalal.Holdings]

4 hours ago, Sweet said:

This has been pointed out for years and yet the dipshits don’t do anything about.

 

If going green means deindustrialising your own territory for those same industries to appear elsewhere without such green regulations then it’s a total failure.

 

Two approaches, if you are going to make energy more expensive then you have to tariff imported industrials products to make your industry competitive.  The other option is widespread nuclear baseload.

From the U.S. national security strategy document:

 

Quote

The Ukraine War has had the perverse effect of increasing Europe’s, especially

Germany’s, external dependencies. Today, German chemical companies are

building some of the world’s largest processing plants in China, using Russian gas

that they cannot obtain at home.

Is the company Lanxess ?

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202511/14/WS691737ada310d6866eb299cf.html

Quote

Rockel said that the expansion enhances asset flexibility and incorporates top-tier automation and energy-efficient technologies. "This is very important for our sustainability goals -- not just to promote the products to the market, but to promote the sustainable products."

Rubber is made from petroleum byproducts. Yes, expanding in China is very "sustainable" bro...

 

Or maybe it's BASF:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/12/world/europe/germany-china-trade.html

 

Quote

BASF, with 30 production facilities in China, is pushing ahead with plans to spend 10 billion euros ($10.9 billion) on a new chemical production complex that would rival in size its massive headquarters complex in Ludwigshafen, which covers about four square miles.

Quote

Martin Brudermüller, BASF’s chief executive, said earnings from China allowed the company to effectively offset losses from Europe’s high energy costs and stringent environmental rules.

 

https://asiatimes.com/2024/11/germany-closing-factories-at-home-opening-them-in-china/

Quote

Germany’s domestic energy policies and economic environment are driving its biggest industrial players away from home and toward more favorable conditions in China. Escalating energy costs, massive subsidies for renewable energy and stringent regulations have created an environment in Germany that is increasingly hostile to industrial growth.

 

Add to this VW, Bosch, SAP, BMW...So many companies doing this, not just in Chemicals...

 

The environmentalists/Greens who helped bring Germany to shut down its nuclear baseload and regulate these industries to death should be happy. Now the factories & plants will be producing in much more Co2 emitting China. Global Co2 might go even higher, but hey, if those plants don't exist in Europe, they will be out of sight and out of mind.

 

China must be happy too, more tech they can learn to copy while they get to sell solar, EVs, batteries which they've invested in aggressively to the Europeans. Xi and the CCP have played this brilliantly...

 

Edited December 8, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[cubsfan]

38 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

From the U.S. national security strategy document:

 

Is the company Lanxess ?

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202511/14/WS691737ada310d6866eb299cf.html

Rubber is made from petroleum byproducts. Yes, expanding in China is very "sustainable" bro...

 

Or maybe it's BASF:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/12/world/europe/germany-china-trade.html

 

 

https://asiatimes.com/2024/11/germany-closing-factories-at-home-opening-them-in-china/

 

Add to this VW, Bosch, SAP, BMW...So many companies doing this, not just in Chemicals...

 

The environmentalists/Greens who helped bring Germany to shut down its nuclear baseload and regulate these industries to death should be happy. Now the factories & plants will be producing in much more Co2 emitting China. Global Co2 might go even higher, but hey, if those plants don't exist in Europe, they will be out of sight and out of mind.

 

China must be happy too, more tech they can learn to copy while they get to sell solar, EVs, batteries which they've invested in aggressively to the Europeans. Xi and the CCP have played this brilliantly...

 

 

It's the disease of the elites, much like we suffer in the USA in a different way.  We import millions of impoverished illegals & criminals - just not in the neighborhoods of the rich. That way they can feel great about themselves, while destroying it for the rest of the country.

[Loss Horizon]

On 12/7/2025 at 8:15 PM, cubsfan said:

 

It just amazes me that you even have to argue this point, they are so dead set on their climate ideology.

 

Like Max Planck said - "Science advances one funeral at a time".

 

Folks, you wouldn't believe how tiring it is to argue with people who are following online media about climate change problems and technology. They are 100% set that bureaucrats and politicians are slowing down energy transition and adoption of electric cars because of corruption, stupidity and being too slow, including in Europe.

 

Ironically, Musk who championed the cause of saving humanity with electrical cars and antagonized the Big Oil and Legacy Auto, sensed change of the wind, and entered the cultural war becoming biggest anti-woke figure.

 

Interesting that both camps love China. It's at the same time anti-woke authoritarian and leading in solar/wind energy and electrical cars.

Edited December 8, 2025 by Loss Horizon

[Spekulatius]

8 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

Is the company Lanxess ?

I think the are referring to BASF. BASF has been building up a large chemical complex in China but that has been in progress for years even before the Ukraine war started.

 

They are also building a large complex in the USA, FWIW. 

[Marco Van Basten]

Linde's CEO bought USD 1MM worth of shares the other day.

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a69661592/european-union-ice-ban-2040-report/

 

 

Quote

The European Union has reportedly agreed to push back its implementation of all-electric new car sales to at least 2040 following pressure by automakers, labor unions, and consumer demand, according to a new report by British newspaper The Times.

 

So it sounds like a 5 year delay...cue outrage by the Greens

[John Hjorth]

European Commision - Press Release, Brussels [December 9^th 2025] : Commission welcomes political agreement on Omnibus I simplification package

 

Brief : The European Commission welcomes the political agreement reached today between the European Parliament and EU Member States on the Omnibus I simplification package, a significant step forward in relieving companies from administrative burden.