Is Europe becoming uninvestable?

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

Shut down nuclear, rely on Russian gas, underinvest in defense/infrastructure, and let the EU impose onerous regulations on your core industries while China heavily subsidizes theirs...some of the incredible things German politicians allowed to happen over the years

 

That's what happens when your country is run by intellectuals who are incapable of thinking strategically on behalf of their countries...

 

People like Milei are providing the blueprint for places like Europe to get out of their funk.

 

As an investor in European businesses, I hope the reforms are coming

 

+1 - you hope they get it before it is too late.

[Sweet]

14 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

Taking out London is problematic? The whole point of taking out London is to show how the rest of the country is doing. It's to show how unequal things are for those outside London (where many wealthy foreigners tilt the scale).

 

And it's doing worse than America's poorest state (Mississippi) in terms of living standards and productivity outside London--GDP per capita (not outright GDP). They took out SF and Munich to show that the rest of Germany & USA outside of its most productive cities are doing relatively ok economically. The same result holds for Amsterdam/Netherlands (see below). If London is taken out, UK is much poorer. This is not the case for USA/Germany/Netherlands. UK is highly unequal and London should not be used as a guide to see how the UK is doing because it has other factors (rich foreigners).

 

And you can bet that this kind of thing will affect who gets elected in UK because national elections are not going to be won just in London.

 

And even with London included, UK is at the level of...Alabama and not far from Mississippi. There are major problems with productivity in the UK and if people want to claim that's "severely biased", they're welcome to ignore reality--just don't be surprised when people like Nigel win elections.

 

The first step in fixing a problem is acknowledging that one exists. If that can't be done, it'll never be solved.

 

Here's the FT (another British source):

https://www.ft.com/content/e5c741a7-befa-4d49-a819-f1b0510a9802

 

 

The whole argument is akin to saying the state of New York's productivity is way lower if you subtract New York City - no shit.

 

London giant economic hoover that pulls in investment, economic activity, and most importantly people from the rest of the UK.  It's unlike all the other comparisons because London makes up such a large portion of the UK's overall GDP.

 

There are large fiscal transfers from the London area, and South East of the UK in general, to the rest of the UK.  So while productivity is lower, as Spek says, that is not to be confused with quality of life.

 

I'd love if there was a fix to the disparity with London and everywhere else in the UK though.

[Dalal.Holdings]

17 minutes ago, Sweet said:

 

The whole argument is akin to saying the state of New York's productivity is way lower if you subtract New York City - no shit.

 

London giant economic hoover that pulls in investment, economic activity, and most importantly people from the rest of the UK.  It's unlike all the other comparisons because London makes up such a large portion of the UK's overall GDP.

 

There are large fiscal transfers from the London area, and South East of the UK in general, to the rest of the UK.  So while productivity is lower, as Spek says, that is not to be confused with quality of life.

 

I'd love if there was a fix to the disparity with London and everywhere else in the UK though.

 

17 minutes ago, Sweet said:

 

The whole argument is akin to saying the state of New York's productivity is way lower if you subtract New York City - no shit.

 

 

You miss the point entirely. I'm not sure you understand what GDP per capita on a PPP adjusted basis means.

 

When London is removed, the rest have much lower living standards--there is a very large gap. The same cannot be said for Amsterdam in the Netherlands nor the top cities in Germany or the USA:

 

Notice that the UK bubbles cluster around the bottom of the chart...

 

Either way, even when you include London (blue line), the UK as a whole is at the level of the state of Alabama in the USA and lower than Germany and The Netherlands. Nothing to brag about even with London included.

 

The overarching point being that the UK is economically stagnant due to a productivity crisis

 

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/britain-is-falling-behind-the-us-and-productivity-is-largely-to-blame/

 

Quote

This difference is due to the poor performance of big cities outside of the national capital in the UK. For instance, the productivity gap between Greater Manchester and London is 35 per cent, far larger than the 20 per cent difference between Paris and Lyon. At current growth rates, it would take nearly a century to close this gap to French levels.

Quote

Not only does this highlight London’s outsized role in UK economic growth, but it also raises concerns that the focus on the capital has come at the expense of productive capacity elsewhere. While the UK is one of the world’s most service-driven economies, core cities outside the capital which could be producing high value service output are not.

 

I guess you can school this economist from the London School of Economics who says:

Quote

When London is excluded from national productivity estimates, average living standards in the UK fall by 14 per cent, and rank below Mississippi, America’s poorest performer.

 

GDP per capital, when adjusted for PPP is a good marker for living standards:

Quote

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP) is a vital economic indicator that measures the average economic output per person, adjusted for price level differences across countries. This metric helps in comparing the living standards and economic well-being of countries on a more even playing field, eliminating the distortions caused by exchange rates. By considering the relative cost of living and inflation rates, PPP allows for a more accurate comparison of economic productivity and real living standards across different geographical locations and over time.

https://gateway.euro.who.int/en/indicators/hfa_34-0270-real-gross-domestic-product-ppp-per-capita/#id=18841

 

 

Edited October 27, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Sweet]

2 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

 

You miss the point entirely. When London is removed, the rest have much lower living standards. The same cannot be said for Amsterdam in the Netherlands nor the top cities in Germany or the USA:

 

Either way, even when you include London (blue line), the UK as a whole is at the level of the state of Alabama in the USA and lower than Germany and The Netherlands. Nothing to brag about even with London included.

 

The overarching point being that the UK is economically stagnant due to a productivity crisis

 

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/britain-is-falling-behind-the-us-and-productivity-is-largely-to-blame/

 

 

GDP per capital, when adjusted for PPP is a good marker for living standards:

https://gateway.euro.who.int/en/indicators/hfa_34-0270-real-gross-domestic-product-ppp-per-capita/#id=18841

 

If you want to deny this reality, go ahead. Just don't be surprised if there is a political upheaval as a result.

 

You're missing the point Dalal.

 

I'm saying 'no shit' living standards are lower if you academically chop off the economic engine of the UK.

 

But we don't live in academic theory, London is part of the UK, and the rest of the UK receives large economic transfers from London.

 

I don't know why you keep saying 'deny this reality'.  It is what it is.

 

In no reality though are we chopping off London from the UK.

[Dalal.Holdings]

1 minute ago, Sweet said:

 

You're missing the point Dalal.

 

I'm saying 'no shit' living standards are lower if you academically chop off the economic engine of the UK.

 

But we don't live in academic theory, London is part of the UK, and the rest of the UK receives large economic transfers from London.

 

I don't know why you keep saying 'deny this reality'.  It is what it is.

 

In no reality though are we chopping off London from the UK.

 

Why does the same type of relationship not hold when you chop off Amsterdam (the economic engine) from the Netherlands?

[Dalal.Holdings]

The fact that many regions in the UK cluster at the bottom of this chart is not a good thing:

 

[Sweet]

35 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

Why does the same type of relationship not hold when you chop off Amsterdam (the economic engine) from the Netherlands?

Because Dutch GDP is not dominated by Amsterdam in the same as London dominates UK economic activity.

 

And, as I said above, in the UK London is a giant economic sucker that pulls in companies, talent from other regions.

[Dalal.Holdings]

1 hour ago, Sweet said:

Because Dutch GDP is not dominated by Amsterdam in the same as London dominates UK economic activity.

 

And, as I said above, in the UK London is a giant economic sucker that pulls in companies, talent from other regions.

 

Well, I'd disagree on the relative importance of Amsterdam to Netherlands, but really no point in arguing this anymore. The UK has a big problem whether or not London is included--unless you consider Alabama an exemplary economy.

 

The bottom line is that the UK has a productivity problem. Its long term stagnation (the result of mismanagement by a series of leaders), along with similar conditions in France, Germany are why you are seeing highly disruptive politicians come to the fore

[Sweet]

2 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

Well, I'd disagree on the relative importance of Amsterdam to Netherlands, but really no point in arguing this anymore. The UK has a big problem whether or not London is included--unless you consider Alabama an exemplary economy.

 

The bottom line is that the UK has a productivity problem. Its long term stagnation (the result of mismanagement by a series of leaders), along with similar conditions in France, Germany are why you are seeing highly disruptive politicians come to the fore

 

Yes the UK has issues, but its not a quick policy fix either.

 

As a person who will be voting political parties to disrupt the status quo, I think you significantly overestimate the significance of the economy.

 

What is actually driving me and others to vote certain ways are social and cultural issues.  

[Dalal.Holdings]

42 minutes ago, Sweet said:

 

Yes the UK has issues, but its not a quick policy fix either.

 

As a person who will be voting political parties to disrupt the status quo, I think you significantly overestimate the significance of the economy.

 

What is actually driving me and others to vote certain ways are social and cultural issues.  

 

I agree with the social/cultural issues being a factor and have argued as such on here. But this being an investment forum, the economic stagnation and productivity flatline are highly relevant and these have exacerbated the social/cultural issues.

 

Even in the Farage interview he repeatedly mentions bringing back the importance of spirit of risk taking, entrepreneurship, PIP reform, etc. It will not be a quick fix but will require deep structural reforms as I’ve stated. An outsider is needed to do this.

 

The funny thing is, the intellectual leaders say they have a solution to the economic problems they created: allowing a bunch of migrants (with questionable actual ability to contribute to the economy or assimilate) in. And they give them lots of handouts and judges prevent anything from being done. The leaders who represent the status quo just keep making the situation worse and worse and wonder why Reform is on the rise.

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

I agree with the social/cultural issues being a factor and have argued as such on here. But this being an investment forum, the economic stagnation and productivity flatline are highly relevant and these have exacerbated the social/cultural issues.

 

Even in the Farage interview he repeatedly mentions bringing back the importance of spirit of risk taking, entrepreneurship, PIP reform, etc. It will not be a quick fix but will require deep structural reforms as I’ve stated. An outsider is needed to do this.

 

The funny thing is, the intellectual leaders say they have a solution to the economic problems they created: allowing a bunch of migrants (with questionable actual ability to contribute to the economy or assimilate) in. And they give them lots of handouts and judges prevent anything from being done. The leaders who represent the status quo just keep making the situation worse and worse and wonder why Reform is on the rise.

Immigration has been bad for living standards.  We have 10 million extra people, mostly immigrants (if not all) pushing wages down and pushing up the cost of living.  I’m doing well, but many others aren’t.  The country and its politicans are a joke.  

[Dalal.Holdings]

If we keep pretending nothing bad is happening, then nothing needs to be fixed !

 

 

 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

If this were to ever happen, then in no way should said Federal EU be run by the current European Commission. It should be ruled by leaders directly elected by the people. It should really just represent the way the United States is structured

 

 

 

 

[Sweet]

Just now, Dalal.Holdings said:

If this were to ever happen, then in no way should said Federal EU be run by the current European Commission. It should be ruled by leaders directly elected by the people. It should really just represent the way the United States is structured

 

 

 

 

 

Yeh that would be mental.

 

I don't know about the EU becoming a state, in certain areas such as defence I think there should be a European army.

 

However on social issues, and other issues such immigration, it could be a disaster.  Merkel severely harmed the EU, if it wasn't for the immigration policies around Syria I don't think Brexit would have happened.

 

And economy and regulations, we obviously can't have policies like they have in germany of taking down nuclear plants.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Poland is Europe’s brightest spots. Ironically, polish people in the UK are leaving to go back Poland. Will Poland’s neighbors learn?

 

 

 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

2 minutes ago, Sweet said:

 

Yeh that would be mental.

 

I don't know about the EU becoming a state, in certain areas such as defence I think there should be a European army.

 

However on social issues, and other issues such immigration, it could be a disaster.  Merkel severely harmed the EU, if it wasn't for the immigration policies around Syria I don't think Brexit would have happened.

 

And economy and regulations, we obviously can't have policies like they have in germany of taking down nuclear plants.

It should be like the U.S where each state (country) gets two senators each and the representation in lower chamber/ability to vote for the executive is based solely on population of each state. That way, even if a single state endorsed crazed policies, the rest of the states can easily reject it

 

Right now you basically have Germany running the show with France as a sidekick. It hasn’t worked well

[Milu]

32 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

If we keep pretending nothing bad is happening, then nothing needs to be fixed !

 

 

 

 

Ireland working its way up to the big leagues 

Edited October 31, 2025 by Milu

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

EU politicians are starting to get it--Trump, Putin, and Xi are the forcing functions that squeezed European bureaucrats to have no choice. The rise of the right wing parties in UK, France, Germany have created a sense of urgency among these clowns.

 

Firing Thierry Breton last year was the first step. Draghi report was another (funny that Brussels nerds need a white paper from Draghi to tell them what's obvious).

 

The question is -- is it too late ? China has transitioned from housing boom builder to EV builder/industrial juggernaut and this threatens Europe's core. EU's goal of cutting red tape by 25% is not enough. And the deforestation rule which is insane looks to pass soon too.

 

[Sweet]

I don't think it is too late, the problem is they aren't doing enough.

 

Most of these people are still the wet wipes that helped cause the malaise.

 

Thinking they will fix it seems very hopeful.  We do need a big political change.

[cubsfan]

5 hours ago, Sweet said:

 

Yeh that would be mental.

 

I don't know about the EU becoming a state, in certain areas such as defence I think there should be a European army.

 

However on social issues, and other issues such immigration, it could be a disaster.  Merkel severely harmed the EU, if it wasn't for the immigration policies around Syria I don't think Brexit would have happened.

 

And economy and regulations, we obviously can't have policies like they have in germany of taking down nuclear plants.

 

Poor Germany and the EU - Angela Merkel almost single handedly destroyed European culture.  I hope someone can save Europe, as it is such a wonderful place.

[Spekulatius]

If the EU is to blame, then why has the UK done worse than the rest of Europe post Brexit? One reason I can come up with that instead of getting rid EU‘s red tape they added their own flavor of UK red tape. Then there are the negative externalities from exiting the EU economic block.

[LC]

14 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

If we keep pretending nothing bad is happening, then nothing needs to be fixed !

 

I agree with @Spekulatius, Brexit was my first thought. 

 

Shows evidence from a country similar to the US, about what happens when you embrace extreme isolationist policies, cutting yourself off from your allies and core trading partners...

[Dalal.Holdings]

The UK may be in some ways worse than the EU, but the EU is not exactly thriving either. The UK had reasonable reasons for leaving the EU. In some ways, they are still suffering from the EU: France sending migrants across the channel and their judges adopting the EU human rights issues and environmentalist political stances.

 

You can’t seriously argue that France and Germany are doing well today. Germany has been in recession for a few years and its industry is in a bleak situation while France is a basket-case. 
 

The real question you have to ask yourself is why all of Europe has fallen so far behind the U.S. and China.

 

And no, it has nothing to do with isolationist policies. It has to do with the leftist politics of the UK and EU (again, radical environmentalism, anti-nuclear energy, crazy welfare policies, taking in migrants who can’t assimilate, punishing capital, etc). As a result, productivity has stagnated across the entire region.
 

In fact, if Europe opens itself up as a dumping ground for Chinese goods (like cheap EVs), it will lead to devastation of its industrial sector. They need more trade barriers, not less. And you are seeing them do that.

 

You are seeing anti-establishment parties rise in polling in UK, France, and Germany which is a common symptom that tells you all three are suffering the same ailment.

 

Edited November 1, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[TwoCitiesCapital]

5 hours ago, LC said:

 

I agree with @Spekulatius, Brexit was my first thought. 

 

Shows evidence from a country similar to the US, about what happens when you embrace extreme isolationist policies, cutting yourself off from your allies and core trading partners...

 

+1

 

3 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

The UK may be in some ways worse than the EU, but the EU is not exactly thriving either. The UK had reasonable reasons for leaving the EU. 

 

Just like Mississippi may have reasons to want to leave the US.... But it won't thrive if it does....

 

Reasons =\= better outcome 

[Dalal.Holdings]

Mississippi is not a sovereign state with its own currency.

 

I can come up with the counter examples of Norway and Switzerland which are thriving while not being in the EU. Unlike the UK, Norway didn’t adopt the crazed green agenda and continues to drill for fossil fuels in the North Sea, is now the major energy exporter to the EU, and has a huge sovereign wealth fund.

 

And that gets me back to the core argument: the sickness that afflicts UK, Germany, France is unchecked left leaning leadership for decades. Greens hampering energy, overregulation, anti-capitalist policies, uncontrolled migration, excessive welfare all resulting in stagnant productivity.
 

Poland, Norway have not had the same sort of conditions.