Is Europe becoming uninvestable?

[fareastwarriors]

23 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

European stocks I have bought recently:

HO.PA (Thales)

BNR.DE / BNTGY (Brenntag)

APR.W (auto retail)

EVO.ST (Evolution)

JDEP (coffee, tea)

ELIS.PA (uniforms, laundry service)

UD.MI (Unidata)

 

Most are smallish positions or adds,

 

Thanks @Spekulatius . How many positions do you have in your portfolio, including the smallish ones? Seems like a lot to monitor.

 

[Spekulatius]

17 minutes ago, fareastwarriors said:

 

Thanks @Spekulatius . How many positions do you have in your portfolio, including the smallish ones? Seems like a lot to monitor.

 

Roughly 40. Much of the above are adds. I don’t monitor every position all that closely, just check on them bi-annually when earnings come out or there is a large movement in the shares.

 

Brenntag - I have owned many times over the years and typically I sell the shares as they tend to run with chemical stocks.
 

Unidata is one I owned almost sind the IPO in 2020. Sold some when it really went off and have been adding back lately. It’s one of the cheapest stocks I am aware off.

 

APR - I bought some in one account in 2022 during the Ukraine war doldrums and my limit order back then missed in another. It’s a pretty good business and I like it a lot and shares have come down, so I felt it time to add some.

Edited January 16 by Spekulatius

[james22]

51 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Roughly 40.

 

You screen for them?

 

Have you looked at custom indexing?

[Dalal.Holdings]

The rules of the Soviet Union never apply to the party elite:

 

 

 

[Sweet]

 

[Sweet]

 

It’s just insane what we are doing in Europe

[Dalal.Holdings]

16 minutes ago, Sweet said:

 

It’s just insane what we are doing in Europe

This is amazing! Pretty soon Chinese carmakers will be subsidized by both Beijing and Brussels!

[Dinar]

2 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

The rules of the Soviet Union never apply to the party elite:

 

 

 

All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others!

[Gregmal]

And people wonder why US trades at 25x….

[Sweet]

36 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

And idiots wonder why US trades at 25x….

fixed it for you lol

 

[james22]

TINA

[Charlie]

DAX at new all-time high:

 

https://www.comdirect.de/inf/indizes/detail/chart.html?timeSpan=1D&ID_NOTATION=20735#timeSpan=SE&e&

 

Investors seem to deny the question of this thread. 

 

I liked how Volkswagen made a good agreement with their employees 1 months ago that nobody get fired and 

in exchange they get 5 year no wage increase. Very good agreement.

[Parsad]

Guys keep the political rhetoric off the board, otherwise your time and energy spent writing a post is just deleted and no one reads it.  You want to fight over politics, go elsewhere since there are plenty of venues that suffocate themselves talking about this crap!  Cheers!

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

Guys keep the political rhetoric off the board, otherwise your time and energy spent writing a post is just deleted and no one reads it.  You want to fight over politics, go elsewhere since there are plenty of venues that suffocate themselves talking about this crap!  Cheers!

 

I know the posts you are referring to.  But as a European it is our politics that is helping to make the place uninvestable.  

There is something like a 75% on UK oil and gas production.  Stupid green regulations in the EU closing down industry.  Infuriating regulations like bottle caps are now attached to every bottle and it’s spills when you try and pour it.  They have AI regulation for a practically nonexistent AI industry.  Add to it this a range of migrants which are now proven to be net takers (fair enough if you don’t want this discussed).  Politics however is the root cause of much our malaise in Europe though.

[james22]

 

[Sweet]

13 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

Yeh this stupid muthafookin think on bottles.  So annoying.

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, Sweet said:

 

I know the posts you are referring to.  But as a European it is our politics that is helping to make the place uninvestable.  

There is something like a 75% on UK oil and gas production.  Stupid green regulations in the EU closing down industry.  Infuriating regulations like bottle caps are now attached to every bottle and it’s spills when you try and pour it.  They have AI regulation for a practically nonexistent AI industry.  Add to it this a range of migrants which are now proven to be net takers (fair enough if you don’t want this discussed).  Politics however is the root cause of much our malaise in Europe though.

 

 

Rubbish!  You're going to tell me that policy creates an environment where there is zero opportunity?  There is always opportunity...maybe not as often or as abundant...but always opportunity in almost all Western economies and most of the rest of the world.  Maybe more time should be spent seeking ideas and less time fighting over political policies.  Cheers!

[Sweet]

5 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

 

Rubbish!  You're going to tell me that policy creates an environment where there is zero opportunity?  There is always opportunity...maybe not as often or as abundant...but always opportunity in almost all Western economies and most of the rest of the world.  Maybe more time should be spent seeking ideas and less time fighting over political policies.  Cheers!

 

I never said any such thing that there were no opportunities.

 

This is a chart comparing EU vs US GDP:

 

I remember there was a time, not too long ago either, where European GDP was higher than the US.

 

Politics is making the difference here and there is zero doubt about that.  That’s all I’m saying.

[Spekulatius]

On 1/15/2025 at 8:41 PM, james22 said:

 

You screen for them?

 

Have you looked at custom indexing?

Custom indexing is not going to work for me. I  have found some stocks randomly using screener , but most of those are in a Japan. I have a Japanese basket of 6 stocks which I regard as one position. When I find something like that and it’s cheap l I buy some shares plain and simple, especially if there is something unique about it (management, business, product). I like buying stocks more than selling.

 

Come to think about it, I have more than 40 stocks, need to check as I have too many accounts. I regard my Japan basket as one position for example.

 

Currently, the opportunities available in Europe are as good as in 2022. Brazil and Japan are also interesting. Canada also has some opportunities. I think the US market has the fewest value opportunities.

Edited Saturday at 11:39 PM by Spekulatius

[james22]

19 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

When I find something like that and it’s cheap l I buy some shares plain and simple, especially if there is something unique about it (management, business, product). I like buying stocks more than selling.

 

There's as many ways to invest as investors, that's for sure.

 

Thanks.

[Parsad]

6 hours ago, Sweet said:

 

I never said any such thing that there were no opportunities.

 

This is a chart comparing EU vs US GDP:

 

I remember there was a time, not too long ago either, where European GDP was higher than the US.

 

Politics is making the difference here and there is zero doubt about that.  That’s all I’m saying.

 

You didn't even read the slide you posted:

 

 

Using "current prices" to make such interpretation is misleading, since the euro depreciated temporarily during that period. On a PPP basis EU GDP per capita was 67.5% of US GDP per capita in 2010, by 2021 that had actually grown to 69.8%.

 

Cheers!

[Sweet]

4 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

You didn't even read the slide you posted:

 

 

Using "current prices" to make such interpretation is misleading, since the euro depreciated temporarily during that period. On a PPP basis EU GDP per capita was 67.5% of US GDP per capita in 2010, by 2021 that had actually grown to 69.8%.

 

Cheers!

The community notes is terrible Parsad.

 

PPP is a flawed measure.  I live in Europe and visit the US regularly - anyone claiming the EU has caught up is off their rocker.

 

The chart is also about the Eurozone GDP, whereas community notes is about the EU GDP per capita.  1 - the Eurozone is not the EU, and 2) GDP is not GDP per capita.

 

The fact is that EU and US GDP were comparable before the financial crisis, and since then EU growth compared to American GDP has suck:

 

EU GDP 2007: 14.7 trillion

US GDP 2007: 14.4 trillion

 

EU (+UK) GDP 2023: 21 trillion

US GDP 2023: 27 trillion

 

And the EU plus the UK has about 170 million more people than the US.

[Parsad]

18 hours ago, Sweet said:

The community notes is terrible Parsad.

 

PPP is a flawed measure.  I live in Europe and visit the US regularly - anyone claiming the EU has caught up is off their rocker.

 

The chart is also about the Eurozone GDP, whereas community notes is about the EU GDP per capita.  1 - the Eurozone is not the EU, and 2) GDP is not GDP per capita.

 

The fact is that EU and US GDP were comparable before the financial crisis, and since then EU growth compared to American GDP has suck:

 

EU GDP 2007: 14.7 trillion

US GDP 2007: 14.4 trillion

 

EU (+UK) GDP 2023: 21 trillion

US GDP 2023: 27 trillion

 

And the EU plus the UK has about 170 million more people than the US.

 

https://statisticstimes.com/economy/united-states-vs-eu-economy.php

 

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=GB-US

 

1st link...US GDP PPP versus European GDP PPP.  2nd link...US GDP PPP versus UK GDP PPP. 

 

As the slides show UK GDP PPP grew at the same rate as US GDP PPP.  And Euro GDP PPP was just nominally lower than US GDP PPP.  Has little to do with migrants and more to do with currency fluctuation.

 

In other words...more economics and less politics.  Cheers!

[Ulti]

2 hours ago, Parsad said:

In other words...more economics and less politics.  Cheers

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/macro-voices/id1079172742?i=1000684251474
 

Timely discussion about the politicization of finance over the years in the West with Izabella Kaminska senior financial editor of the Politico 

[Sweet]

5 hours ago, Parsad said:

As the slides show UK GDP PPP grew at the same rate as US GDP PPP.  And Euro GDP PPP was just nominally lower than US GDP PPP.  Has little to do with migrants and more to do with currency fluctuation.

I live in the UK, and this would be funny except we have had a slow growing, nearly stagnant economy for many years and everyone feels it.

 

Politicians across the political divide accept America has grown much faster than we have.

 

Our GDP in dollar terms didn’t surpass the 2008 high until 2021:

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=GB

 

Yes you could measure our GDP in £ and it would look better, but it still lags.  There are a range of time series here:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp

 

Choose whatever data you think makes your case - but I think you are cherry picking.  At best it’s behind, at worst it’s way behind.

 

I’ve lived here all my life, nearly every expert and political opinion here in the UK is unanimous- we have a growth problem - and we would love to have the US’s economy.

 

Edited Monday at 10:36 AM by Sweet