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Posted
3 hours ago, giulio said:

I have a ton of doubts about this investor...managing $100M in 2019 not sure now.

 

 I know who this is and will just update that they managed $110.8 million as of the beginning of this year.

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Posted

These guys who had dinner with Munger and then go around posting photos with him and saying stuff like he was their "mentor" and trumpeting his name at every opportunity - it's very distasteful behavior.  Munger had dinner with a lot of people.  It's like the joke, "How do you know if someone is vegan?  They'll tell you."

Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, giulio said:

Not sure where to post this. I would like to collect the feedback of the forum members, and maybe provide some food for thought as well.

First column is net returns, second is gross, third is S&P500.

What would you think of this investor? Does this record stand out? Inception is Jan 1st 2000.

I have a ton of doubts about this investor...managing $100M in 2019 not sure now.

What I see is 

  • a very "convenient" start date to compare yourself against the index
  • huge numbers in 2020, 2021 and 2023, fuck up in 22 -> red flags
  • more or less market performance excluding 2020-2023 and 2000-2003

Yet, I see him presented as "an extraordinarily thoughtful investor", "who’s beaten the S&P 500 over the last 24 years", obviously mentioning Peter Kaufman and Charlie Munger....

If you know his name please don't share it now, do it later.

 image.png.70cd2144e5140f0d4d69bc6ff47e071a.png

 

image.png.b9bdd4fe10c8db8b56c8a5fb767a684b.png

 

So, if your largest positions are Tesla, Apple and Amazon in that order - 2022 was going to be a bad year for you.  I'm not sure why they were down 50% but 2022 had a very high-mark -> low-mark timing as far as where tech stocks were on the calendar dates.  Berkshire had a large reported net loss for 2022 for similar reasons (not 50% of net worth of course!)

 

I would be most concerned about a "value investor" that held Tesla as the largest position through that period (and still does).

 

Some people are born into billions of dollars and countless high-level finance connections and can become "money managers" with slightly fewer road blocks than the average joe.

 

Imagine how the clients and manger were feeling at year-end 2021 -

image.thumb.jpeg.2db4fbe9db94e2bc026c1578992caf43.jpeg

Edited by gfp
Posted

@gfp you're spot on.

 

2020-2021 -> he bought overvalued tech (CRM, SPOT, TSLA, SNOW, ZG) and questionable insurance companies (TRUP). we can discuss whether GOOG, AAPL and AMZN were overvalued or not in that time frame.

from memory, they were not cheap. no wonder the portfolio crashed in 2022. 

I am not sure these names were cheap in 2022 either, unless you picked the absolute bottom! Maybe fairly valued? Hard not to be biased now looking at share price movement. 

Adding to TSLA in 2021 makes 0 sense even if you believe the autonomy story or whatever. It is just cathy-wood-crazy level!

CAGR does not lie and I am using gross, not even net (after fees).

Gross CAGR is 9% inception to 2023. Nothing great IMO especially if you owned big tech in its huge melt up. 

6.5% inception to 2018.

8.1% inception to 2019.

 

 

Posted
7 hours ago, giulio said:

@Sweet Christopher tsai of tsai capital

 

It's weird that his fund is so heavily in technology given how it worked out for his dad. His Dad was the Cathy Woods of the 1960s. He ran a go-go tech momentum fund and was called "the next Warren Buffett", which everyone knows is the kiss of death. A couple of years later his fund was down 90% and he was running a soup can company. I'm totally serious about that. 

 

His dad also had nine lives and built up that can company and used it to get back to wall Street by using the money from profits to buy Primerica. So I don't know what the lesson is there. It's either a roadmap or a cautionary tale depending on whether you stayed until the movie.

Posted
10 hours ago, Saluki said:

His Dad was the Cathy Woods of the 1960s. He ran a go-go tech momentum fund

The John Brooks book covering that era "The Go-Go Years: The Drama and Crashing Finale of Wall Street's Bullish 60s" is great although was clearly written in a different era.

Posted

How about this guy?

 

		Gross Return Net Return*
Q1 2024 	11.90% 		9.25%

2023 		34.70% 		26.45%
2022 		16.38% 		11.95%
2021 		181.80% 	142.87%
2020 		161.87% 	129.49%
2019 		18.71% 		14.97%

Since Inception (1/1/19) 
			1436.70% 	891.08%

 

Posted
2 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

How about this guy?

 

		Gross Return Net Return*
Q1 2024 	11.90% 		9.25%

2023 		34.70% 		26.45%
2022 		16.38% 		11.95%
2021 		181.80% 	142.87%
2020 		161.87% 	129.49%
2019 		18.71% 		14.97%

Since Inception (1/1/19) 
			1436.70% 	891.08%

 


Could be an energy guy?

Posted
4 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

How about this guy?

 

		Gross Return Net Return*
Q1 2024 	11.90% 		9.25%

2023 		34.70% 		26.45%
2022 		16.38% 		11.95%
2021 		181.80% 	142.87%
2020 		161.87% 	129.49%
2019 		18.71% 		14.97%

Since Inception (1/1/19) 
			1436.70% 	891.08%

 

 

 

Well that one looks like Kuppy.  That's a Tulane University-quality record right there.  

Posted

Colorado using drones as first responders. 

 

https://www.foxnews.com/media/colorado-police-plan-use-drones-first-responders-calling-technology-future-law-enforcement

 

Could be an interesting trend.  Instead of sending police cruisers out for every call, maybe you'll have a bunch of people at their monitors, like in a 911 center, operating drones and responding quickly to multiple calls as a sort of filtering device for patrol cars.  

 

It's hard to recruit and train police officers, but this can probably be staffed in a lot less time.  

Posted
5 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

 

Well that one looks like Kuppy.  That's a Tulane University-quality record right there.  

 

Winner, winner chicken dinner!

 

I own a little of his Mongolia Growth Group (YAK) because its trading at a significant discount to liquidation value and because they closed their failed mongolian real estate venture its basically going to be forced to redeem everyone and shut down to avoid being regulated and taxed as an investment company.

 

Part of the reason I started buying was thinking he's got a great track record so even if it takes a while to close I may also benefit from portfolio gains. But then I looked through the portfolio history and realized that almost all of the gains were from owning BTC during its last big runup, and getting out at a good time. So, I've stopped buying to reconsider for now.

 

Seems like his big wins are all big macro bets. He may actually have a real skill at it given his track record, but it's something I can't measure, and it seems incredibly volatile. For every BTC win he's got failures like Mongoian real estate.

Posted
17 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

Winner, winner chicken dinner!

 

I own a little of his Mongolia Growth Group (YAK) because its trading at a significant discount to liquidation value and because they closed their failed mongolian real estate venture its basically going to be forced to redeem everyone and shut down to avoid being regulated and taxed as an investment company.

 

Part of the reason I started buying was thinking he's got a great track record so even if it takes a while to close I may also benefit from portfolio gains. But then I looked through the portfolio history and realized that almost all of the gains were from owning BTC during its last big runup, and getting out at a good time. So, I've stopped buying to reconsider for now.

 

Seems like his big wins are all big macro bets. He may actually have a real skill at it given his track record, but it's something I can't measure, and it seems incredibly volatile. For every BTC win he's got failures like Mongoian real estate.

 

He's blown up a few funds so it isn't easy to see his actual track record.  If you start over in 2019 your "track record" magically resets!  Poof!

Posted
On 5/27/2024 at 6:08 AM, Sweet said:

Can you let us know who the manager is in a few days?  I don’t know who this is.


@giulio

 

 

I don’t know what the discussion here is on Tsai but here two episodes where he talks. 
 

IMG_1114.thumb.jpeg.99357628d2dac0a0d76504e917be5b45.jpegIMG_1113.thumb.jpeg.ef336d54dc1cf055482ac9c7bf5dde06.jpeg

Posted
3 hours ago, Saluki said:

Interview with Terry Smith of Fundsmith.

 

https://www.fundsmith.co.uk/news/2024/5553-5553-the-market-nzz-valuation-is-not-as-important-as-quality/

 

I like how easy he makes life for himself by just avoiding entire industries (Oil & Gas, Banking, Insurance) that are cyclical, require a lot of debt, or don't earn good returns on capital.  


 

What has been his performance over time?

 

Some interesting rules of thumb in there - liked the idea of fcf yield +growth will equal your return roughly.

 

Disagree with some of the industries he says away from - insurance and banking I think are more predictable I think, although there are times you need to hold onto your ass.

Posted
11 hours ago, Sweet said:


 

What has been his performance over time?

 

Some interesting rules of thumb in there - liked the idea of fcf yield +growth will equal your return roughly.

 

Disagree with some of the industries he says away from - insurance and banking I think are more predictable I think, although there are times you need to hold onto your ass.

 

After having worked at banks in the past, I don't have any interest in owning bank stocks. I think he's also in that boat having been CEO of a bank. 

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