OceanGate, Submarine goes missing.

[Gregmal]

Also, a stepdad is not a dad. 

[Luca]

 

[ICUMD]

Risk in this event was highly miscalculated /misrepresented.

Can't imagine subjecting my 19 yr old son to this type of risk. Orders of magnitude improved engineering/redundant safety, would be needed to even consider such a trip.

 

Reward was also miscalculated.

Seeing a 100+ yr old ship through a dark, small portal window has absolutely no utility other than to say 'I did'.

 

A tendency to overestimate or under estimate risk/reward occurs when there is failure to analyse, anchoring in someone else's faulty analysis, or lack of knowledge.  Further, some people are simply risk seeking.  

 

Anchoring into the faulty beliefs of the sensationalist CEO was the error of most on board I would think. 

 

Very important to be an independent thinker when it comes to risk since it is an individualized calculation.

 

 

[Xerxes]

[Castanza]

4 hours ago, formthirteen said:

 

It's safe until it isn't. You have one life, and your family and friends will miss you if/when something happens.

 

I jumped years ago and I still clearly remember all the risks and small mistakes made by instructors, pilots, friends, and myself to this day. My best friend who continued jumping died in a sky-diving accident a couple of years after I stopped.

 

Anyone with a basic understanding of engineering, physics, carbon fiber, and risk management wouldn't go anywhere with this ”submarine”. The CEO himself is a big red flag. Going on this trip was similar to going all-in at the top on Bear Stearns with your family's savings.

 

That's why I said go with someone who is highly trained from a military background and not some touristy or adrenaline thrill seeker. The guy I went with is a friend who was a Green Beret for 9 years. He had something like 130 jumps under his belt; including HALO. He told me that after he got out he went to a credible jump school in California for fun and the lack of safety checks by instructors was nuts. The death rate for tandem jumps was 15 our of 3.3m in the US....I'd call that pretty safe. But yeah anything can happen. 

 

Agree on the sub, was reading carbon fiber subs have a habit of imploding because it's almost impossible to manufacture a defect free haul. 

 

 

[rkbabang]

1 hour ago, Castanza said:

 

That's why I said go with someone who is highly trained from a military background and not some touristy or adrenaline thrill seeker. The guy I went with is a friend who was a Green Beret for 9 years. He had something like 130 jumps under his belt; including HALO. He told me that after he got out he went to a credible jump school in California for fun and the lack of safety checks by instructors was nuts. The death rate for tandem jumps was 15 our of 3.3m in the US....I'd call that pretty safe. But yeah anything can happen. 

 

Agree on the sub, was reading carbon fiber subs have a habit of imploding because it's almost impossible to manufacture a defect free haul. 

 

 

 

Now that they are at the point where if the sub is still intact they would be out of air, I hope it imploded on day 1 and they died almost instantly.   Being stuck in that can for days, slowly using up all of the air, knowing you were going to die would be a horrific way to go. 

 

[Luca]

Game Over?

 

 

 

[John Hjorth]

On 6/21/2023 at 3:58 PM, Spekulatius said:

Well, the CEO of Oceangate is eating his own cooking as we type away here.

 

May be, but he is not anywhere near carrying the total downside of his own actions and decisions. Totally reckless person.

[Luca]

 

[Luca]

All dead, what a shame. As @John Hjorth already said, the fault relies on OceanGate, the CEO and their pathetic design and testing. 

[Pelagic]

I was watching that video last night @Luca, at 19:10 he mentions that OceanGate's CEO deliberately chose not to utilize voice communication with the surface vessel because of concerns about them interrupting the experience aboard the submersible.

[Luca]

1 minute ago, Pelagic said:

I was watching that video last night @Luca, at 19:10 he mentions that OceanGate's CEO deliberately chose not to utilize voice communication with the surface vessel because of concerns about them interrupting the experience aboard the submersible.

Crazy...

[John Hjorth]

3 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

May be, but he is not anywhere near carrying the total downside of his own actions and decisions. Totally reckless person.

 

I'm not trying to appear a heartless person in this situation, what has happened is in every aspect terrible. It is about that it is for profit tourism, where - if this goes wrong , like here, it's not the provider of the tour, that has to pick up the tap. Unsustainable business model, and the CEO did not care one whit. Tax payers from several countries -  tax payers in countries with something to contribute in the situation - have in reality been held hostages here.

[aws]

Horrible story regardless, but striking how much more coverage the disaster of the five rich adventurers got than the 500 migrants that died in the Greek shipwreck last week. 

[Xerxes]

The catastrophic event would have pulled the metal vessel apart "like taffy," according to Naval History Magazine. "Complete destruction would occur in 1/20th of a second, too fast to be cognitively recognized by the men within the submarine."

 

An implosion is basically the exact opposite of an explosion. Instead of pressure from within moving outward, you have pressure from outside rushing in. Similar to an explosion, there is unlikely to be much left of the vessel and its cargo.

 

"I know it's no great comfort to the families and the spouses, but they did die instantaneously. They were not even aware that anything was wrong," journalist David Pogue said on CNN.

[Spekulatius]

Now we can add the mystique of the lost sub to the Titanic. Should attract even more visitors to the wrecks.

 

On the positive note, we now know that the US Navy of listening to what’s happening  underwater. I suspect they do this to track submarines.

Edited June 23, 2023 by Spekulatius

[John Hjorth]

@Spekulatius,

 

Yes, It has been a not so well kept hidden sectret for decades, that there are US buoys scattered all over the Atlantic Ocean to track russian naval and submarine activity from the Russian North fleet out of Murmansk, especially east of NE USA, where Titanic did sink.

[John Hjorth]

13 hours ago, aws said:

Horrible story regardless, but striking how much more coverage the disaster of the five rich adventurers got than the 500 migrants that died in the Greek shipwreck last week. 

 

I am personally of the opinion that the odium in MSM of UHNW individuals with an eccentric lifestyle and way of life is a part of the explanation of this observation of yours, @aws. Awful ticket selling, based on the general generation of envy.

[Luca]

Also, quite ridiculous how much money was spent on this rescue mission. If I go to Everest, to get rescue, I have to pay for expensive private insurance companies and have to hope they don't just leave me on the mountain. 

 

Then we have OceanGate, a fraudulent company, taking huge risks for tourism playing with the lives of a few billionaires and the taxpayer pays for 5 days of fuel for airplanes, Armies and what not to get these people out. WTF?

 

If someone decides to go to Everest, he has to pay for the consequences or hell be left alone on the mountain. The same should count for OceanGate and Pakistani billionaires. I hope their families have to cover this bill at least...makes it very difficult to empathize with them for me.

 

Actuall homeless population starving in some countries, lack of healthcare etc and they spend a couple of millions+ to save a few idiots who took risks to see a boat on 4000meter depth...! 

Edited June 23, 2023 by Luca

[John Hjorth]

@Luca,

 

Off topic :

 

The situation at Mount Everest actually isen't much better, with more traffic, and that being unstainable going forward, because the climbers doing the try not paying the full costs related to the climb, or should I say climb attempt!

 

National Geographic [last updated May 20^th 2022] : Trash and Overcrowding at the Top of the World, &

All that's interesting [April 22^nd 2023] : Why Mount Everest Is Littered With The Dead Bodies Of More Than 200 Fallen Climbers.

 

Again, unsustainable business model.

[Ross812]

On 6/22/2023 at 9:08 AM, Castanza said:

 

That's why I said go with someone who is highly trained from a military background and not some touristy or adrenaline thrill seeker. The guy I went with is a friend who was a Green Beret for 9 years. He had something like 130 jumps under his belt; including HALO. He told me that after he got out he went to a credible jump school in California for fun and the lack of safety checks by instructors was nuts. The death rate for tandem jumps was 15 our of 3.3m in the US....I'd call that pretty safe. But yeah anything can happen. 

 

Agree on the sub, was reading carbon fiber subs have a habit of imploding because it's almost impossible to manufacture a defect free haul. 

 

 

 

There are either 3 person tandem jumps or someone missed the "lets make sure we are buckled together" safety check given the odd number!

[Castanza]

2 minutes ago, Ross812 said:

 

There are either 3 person tandem jumps or someone missed the "lets make sure we are buckled together" safety check given the odd number!

Or one died and one survived 

[Ross812]

1 hour ago, Luca said:

Also, quite ridiculous how much money was spent on this rescue mission. If I go to Everest, to get rescue, I have to pay for expensive private insurance companies and have to hope they don't just leave me on the mountain. 

 

Then we have OceanGate, a fraudulent company, taking huge risks for tourism playing with the lives of a few billionaires and the taxpayer pays for 5 days of fuel for airplanes, Armies and what not to get these people out. WTF?

 

If someone decides to go to Everest, he has to pay for the consequences or hell be left alone on the mountain. The same should count for OceanGate and Pakistani billionaires. I hope their families have to cover this bill at least...makes it very difficult to empathize with them for me.

 

Actuall homeless population starving in some countries, lack of healthcare etc and they spend a couple of millions+ to save a few idiots who took risks to see a boat on 4000meter depth...! 

 

Think how many boats of Syrian refugees who could have been saved with a fraction of the resources devoted to this effort. 

[Ross812]

4 minutes ago, Castanza said:

Or one died and one survived 

 

I just did some Googling and it seems in is uncommon but not unheard of to survive a 10,000 ft. fall... One woman survived a 30k ft. fall. The things you learn...

[ValueArb]

1 hour ago, Ross812 said:

 

Think how many boats of Syrian refugees who could have been saved with a fraction of the resources devoted to this effort. 

 

Same could be said anytime a search is conducted for a hiker on Mt Hood or Rainer, or for a missing ocean kayaker, or kids trapped in a flooded cave, etc.

 

As a percentage of society's spending, search and rescue is vanishingly small. The question isn't whether its not worth performing search and rescue for expensive submersibles containing wealthy tourists, its why aren't we doing more for Mediterranean refugees.