Economic War-US/G7/West vs China (semiconductors)

[Luca]

Since the tone against China is becoming harsher and harsher and vice versa, increasing import/export bans from both sides, i think this deserves its own thread. 

 

As of tuesday the 23th of May: https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3221582/tech-war-china-slams-japans-semiconductor-technology-export-controls

 

Tokyo on Tuesday unveiled details of its updated list of regulated exports, which include 23 types of chip-making equipment.

 

Beijing said it “firmly opposes” Japan’s latest chip-making equipment export restrictions, which have dealt a fresh blow to China’s semiconductor industry that is already grappling with growing US trade curbs amid an intensifying tech war.

 

Japan’s action respresents “an abuse” of export control measures and “a serious deviation” from free trade and international rules, an unnamed spokesman of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on Tuesday.

 

The curbs are set to take effect on July 23.

 

 

Beijing has called on the World Trade Organization to review restrictions on chip-related exports to China because they may have “violated” the group’s principles, according to a report by state broadcaster China Central Television in April.

[Luca]

Why is China pressured this much? Foreign trade minister Liesje Schreinemacher from the netherlands: 

 

“Given the technological developments and the geopolitical context, the government has come to the conclusion that the existing export control framework for specific equipment used for the manufacture of semiconductors needs to be expanded, in the interests of national and international security,”

 

Interests of national and international security sounds pretty vague to me...is china not allowed to develop its military the same way the US military is allowed? Where has the chinese government made threats to international security? 

 

To throw in a perspective by Noam Chomsky: 

 

There’s a kind of a–when we look at national power, what people look at typically is GDP, gross domestic product. And you look at U.S. share of GDP–it’s declined. It was maybe 40% in 1945, then maybe 25% by 1970, maybe 17% today. It looks like a decline. But take another measure. Take a look at the–here I’m quoting very interesting work by a young political economist, Ken Starrs. Suppose you look at the dominance of the economy by U.S.-based multinationals. It’s spectacular. U.S. multinationals control about 50% of the global economy, own–own 50% of it. In just about every area–manufacturing, retail–

 

 It prevented other countries from moving toward independent development, and therefore led to a situation in which U.S. multinationals dominate the world. If they had moved to independent development, we’d see exactly what we’re seeing with China today. It’s moving toward independent development; U.S. is trying to prevent it. The policies, shared bipartisan policies, are to try to prevent Chinese [independent] development. So if China, for example–you know, the mantra is “China’s stealing our jobs.” Is China stealing our jobs? They don’t have a gun to the head of Tim Cook, saying invest here. The U.S. multinationals are losing our jobs. But we don’t want China to develop as an economy.

 

That’s why the bipartisan programs are to prevent China from doing the things that make the economy successful–like industrial policy, to have a state industrial policy. We see that that’s successful; we want them to stop it. Kind of interesting, because that’s–economists and others, if they believe a word they’re saying, ought to be cheering. According to their theories, if the state intervenes in the economy, it’s going to harm the economy. But everyone knows the opposite is true. In fact, we ourselves have a massive state industrial policy. That’s why you have things like computers and the internet and so on, it’s mainly public funding. But we don’t want China to have that, because they’ll be successful, they’ll be out of our control; that we don’t want. That’s what the kind of concern was in the fifties. So I think the imperial model has been very successful. It’s led to a situation in which it’s primarily designed for the benefit of U.S. capital, which has succeeded beyond belief.

 

As soon as it’s beginning to get out of control, there’s a bipartisan agreement, backed by capital, to try to prevent their development. Now on a much smaller scale that happened in Vietnam, happened in Chile. It’s happened over and over again, even happened with Grenada if you want to look at it. And that’s a standard imperial model that goes back way before we picked it up. And overall, it’s been pretty successful. There were things that didn’t work out. But for the main drivers of American policy, which is concentrated capital, it’s been a pretty successful system.

[Luca]

Pressuring China, putting tariffs on china, not allowing advanced tools essential for economic development all helps western multinationals immensely.

How would a world in the semiconductor industry look like if chinese business has access to EUV tools? Goodbye NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Micron. It would mix up profit margins and growth significantly as have lower cost items from china. Western production is not as viable as chinese production, that is pure economics. State intervention with tariffs is against free market logic, the cheapest producer with the cheapest price will attract independent consumers looking for products. Worked well for apple that had massive price advantages due to chinese production. Its a problem if US or western multinationals lose jobs to chinese busines but not a problem vice versa. We can have factories in china but chinese factories in the west? Thats not nice. 

[Dinar]

@Luca, you ask why China is pressured so much?  Because it is an enemy of the West.  It unleashed Covid on the world (let's not forget, you could not travel from Wuhan to the rest of China, but you could fly abroad), it steals intellectual property everywhere, it engages in mercantilism and destroys foreign industries via domestic subsidies.  It is helping Russia in its invasion of Ukraine.

 

The best thing for the West & Korea/Japan, is not to deal with China period.  No imports and no exports. No intellectual property transfer.

[Viking]

China’s model (political/economic) is simply not compatible with the West’s model. We have two different value systems. China played nicely for decades because they needed to take advantage of the West’s stupidity to accelerate their economic development (capital, technology transfer etc).. It worked brilliantly. Bottom line… China is a wolf… increasingly in wolf’s clothing. (It used to be in sheep's clothing.) Leadership in the West finally gets it. We are at economic war with China. And it is only going to get worse. War is a big word but it is accurate. What do you do when you are at war with someone… do you sell them advanced chips? Think about what that means.

China’s model:

1.) keeping the communist party in power is the fundamental rule… EVERYTHING in life and society in China (and their interests abroad) exits to serve the CCP. Life. Laws. All subservient to the CCP.

2.) rule of law does not exist… see #1… 

3.) individual rights do not exist… see #1…

People can be thrown in jail and your life’s possessions can be confiscated at the pleasure of the CCP. No reason necessary.

Businesses exist to serve the CCP. This includes foreign firms operating in China.

4.) freedom of the press does not exist… see #1… the press exists to serve the CCP (that propaganda thing).

5.) China’s interests abroad… also exist to serve the CCP. This is important.

- Chinese living abroad are tools of the CCP (just look at the China’s active involvement in Canadian elections, on site at universities, actively targeting families of Chinese Canadians who are anti-CCP). 
 

it is simply the way the world works. The Disney movie is over. 
—————

Watch this video if you want to better understand the reality of living under the CCP/communist model of China. It is chilling. With all its flaws, living in a liberal democracy (of the West) is a wonderful gift. But liberal democracies are NOT the normal way. They are fragile. And can disappear if we do take it for granted and do stupid things.

—————-

Companies are figuring it out. Apple deciding to shift 25% of iPhone production to India is a seismic event. The Chinese economy has serious issues… they are still dealing with an epic property bubble. 
 

 

Edited May 24, 2023 by Viking

[Sweet]

Noam Chomsky is saying the West is and has been trying to stop Chinas development?  Maybe now but that’s not the full story - the guy is a clown.

 

Henry Kissinger said that the US, and the West more generally, sought to develop China’s economy in the hope of i) pulling it away from the Soviet Union, and ii) hoping that free market reforms would lead to a free political system.

 

That policy was a huge error in hindsight, because China used its economy to solidify its authoritarian regime, and is now an adversary to neighbouring countries and the West.

 

If it’s just because the West dislikes China, why isn’t the same approach being taken by the West with India?  Why are countries all over the South Pacific arming and seeking alliances against China?

Edited May 24, 2023 by Sweet

[Spekulatius]

We are in a cold war with China - see my post in the Taiwan thread - most people just have not realized it yet. It plays out mostly economically, now more politically and probably at some point militarily.

Regardless of what you think is right or wrong, you need to invest in the world like it is, not the world you want it to be and place your chips accordingly.

 

In my opinion, it's a bad idea to put your money on the other side of the fence that is being build here between the two blocks.

 

 

[rkbabang]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

We are in a cold war with China - see my post in the Taiwan thread - most people just have not realized it yet. It plays out mostly economically, now more politically and probably at some point militarily.

Regardless of what you think is right or wrong, you need to invest in the world like it is, not the world you want it to be and place your chips accordingly.

 

In my opinion, it's a bad idea to put your money on the other side of the fence that is being build here between the two blocks.

 

 

Agreed.  The problem with investing in China is ownership.  If I understand it correctly you don't really own a share of the actual company when you buy a Chinese stock the way you do if you own a share of a company in any western democracy.  You own some shell corp outside of China with some complicated legalese that gives you some rights to the earnings of the company.  But the CCP could just change its policy and make all of those shares worthless overnight.   It can completely screw over all foreign shareholders in all Chinese companies any time it wishes.  That fact coupled with what Spek wrote above, just makes any Chinese investment off limits for me.  I am ok with some political risk, I hold Petrobras for example, but the political risk in China is just far too high for me to be comfortable with.

 

[zippy1]

People don't want to sell China semiconductors to be put on the weapons and shoot at the same people themselves.  I wonder why?   

Edited May 25, 2023 by zippy1

[scorpioncapital]

Best article i read on this 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.barrons.com/amp/articles/us-china-trade-deglobalization-economy-russia-politics-7125abe7

 

 

[Spekulatius]

15 hours ago, rkbabang said:

Agreed.  The problem with investing in China is ownership.  If I understand it correctly you don't really own a share of the actual company when you buy a Chinese stock the way you do if you own a share of a company in any western democracy.  You own some shell corp outside of China with some complicated legalese that gives you some rights to the earnings of the company.  But the CCP could just change its policy and make all of those shares worthless overnight.   It can completely screw over all foreign shareholders in all Chinese companies any time it wishes.  That fact coupled with what Spek wrote above, just makes any Chinese investment off limits for me.  I am ok with some political risk, I hold Petrobras for example, but the political risk in China is just far too high for me to be comfortable with.

 

It goes way beyond ownership issues. If China attacks Taiwan, which may be of their to do list this decade, then I think Chinese equities may be stranded just like Russian stocks. I think something like BABA may be a <$40 stock if it happens tomorrow. Granted, AAPL may be down > 50% as well. There is no way of knowing what will happen with your ownership of a Cayman holding company that holds contractual rights of ownership to a Chinese business. Several stocks may end up on the US blacklist, which means you can’t buy them, only sell, if that.

 

Too many ways to get screwed here, Imo.

Edited May 25, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Castanza]

6 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

If China attacks Taiwan

 There will be a ton of second order effects. Out of the gate I bet the US would destroy TSM facilities. 

 

I've been trying really hard the past few months to like China by reading non-western sources. I can't bring myself to own anything there. If you're time horizon is 20+ years then it just increases the risk imo. You can't have two massive gorillas in the same room with completely different ideologies but similar ambitions for long. 

 

The ownership is an issue with China investments for sure. But I think the perspective is also an issue. China views success in hundreds of years where as in the US we view it in decades. The difference between those timeframe allows a much different appetite or suffrage in the short term. The problem is, China's "short-term" is typically longer than the average investors life. I don't have 50 years to wait out the CCP on turning their perspective on businesses and what they can do positively for shareholders. 

 

Would I take a flyer on BABA if it goes into the 60's again? Probably. I just can't see making it or any other Chinese security a significant position; especially with the bargains available here in the US. 

[Spekulatius]

7 minutes ago, Castanza said:

 There will be a ton of second order effects. Out of the gate I bet the US would destroy TSM facilities. 

 

I've been trying really hard the past few months to like China by reading non-western sources. I can't bring myself to own anything there. If you're time horizon is 20+ years then it just increases the risk imo. You can't have two massive gorillas in the same room with completely different ideologies but similar ambitions for long. 

 

The ownership is an issue with China investments for sure. But I think the perspective is also an issue. China views success in hundreds of years where as in the US we view it in decades. The difference between those timeframe allows a much different appetite or suffrage in the short term. The problem is, China's "short-term" is typically longer than the average investors life. I don't have 50 years to wait out the CCP on turning their perspective on businesses and what they can do positively for shareholders. 

 

Would I take a flyer on BABA if it goes into the 60's again? Probably. I just can't see making it or any other Chinese security a significant position; especially with the bargains available here in the US. 

I agree on taking a flyer on chinese stocks as a trading sardines. The shorter the trade the better. Any fighting in Taiwan would destroy the TSMC facilities anyways - they are complex systems and even just damaging some utilities or supplies makes them unusable.

 

The secondary effects of an attack on Taiwan on the AUS economy will be terrible, but China will be destroyed by the subsequent blockade of all goods coming in or out of China. No crude, raw material , food will get into China unless the US allows it. China has no means to counter an US/western lead sea blockade. The Chinese Economy will basically turns to rubble and hunger breaks out.

 

I guess they can try the nuke threat. No good other option left. Or maybe get rid of Xi and the CCP and try something else, if it comes to that.

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

I agree on taking a flyer on chinese stocks as a trading sardines. The shorter the trade the better. Any fighting in Taiwan would destroy the TSMC facilities anyways - they are complex systems and even just damaging some utilities or supplies makes them unusable.

 

The secondary effects of an attack on Taiwan on the AUS economy will be terrible, but China will be destroyed by the subsequent blockade of all goods coming in or out of China. No crude, raw material , food will get into China unless the US allows it. China has no means to counter an US/western lead sea blockade. The Chinese Economy will basically turns to rubble and hunger breaks out.

 

I guess they can try the nuke threat. No good other option left. Or maybe get rid of Xi and the CCP and try something else, if it comes to that.

Actually, China can get everything it needs from Russia in terms of raw materials

[Luca]

Ill try to take chinas viewpoint from here:

 

On 5/24/2023 at 4:21 PM, Dinar said:

It unleashed Covid on the world (let's not forget, you could not travel from Wuhan to the rest of China, but you could fly abroad)

That's not proven and speculation to be fair. They did not ,,unleashed,, it, at least there is no 100% hard evidence for it.

On 5/24/2023 at 4:21 PM, Dinar said:

it steals intellectual property everywhere

I posted in the china thread that the US would never be in the position it is now without intellectual property theft. It is very true that Chinese try to get access to industries and try to copy existing technology to increase their own exports and wealth. On the other hand one can have a debate about IP and how legitimate current IP legislation is. This could perhaps explain the view of china:

 

,,The World Trade Organization proposed new, enhanced intellectual property rights, patent rights, which means monopoly pricing rights, far beyond anything that existed in the past. In fact they are not only designed to maximize monopoly pricing, and profit, but also to prevent development. That’s rather crucial. WTO rules introduced product patents. Used to be you could patent a process, but not the product. Which means if some smart guy could figure out a better way of doing it, he could do it. They want to block that. It’s important to block development and progress, in order to ensure monopoly rights. So they now have product patents,,

On 5/24/2023 at 4:21 PM, Dinar said:

It engages in mercantilism and destroys foreign industries via domestic subsidies.

It was the only way for china to get where they are now with state directed economic policies that actively interfere in industry, cut off foreign markets, support local industry etc. Otherwise they would still just be a US manufacturing Hub of above described militarized monopolies. Also: Some industries just cant be spawned by itself, TSMC was state backed, Airplane production was partly state backed. 

 

On 5/24/2023 at 4:21 PM, Dinar said:

It is helping Russia in its invasion of Ukraine.

Also not fair to say.

On 5/24/2023 at 4:21 PM, Dinar said:

 

The best thing for the West & Korea/Japan, is not to deal with China period.  No imports and no exports. No intellectual property transfer.

So you suggest to completely cut contact with 1.5b people and the second biggest economy in the world? 

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Dinar said:

Actually, China can get everything it needs from Russia in terms of raw materials

Not in satisfactory quantity. How are they getting it to China? By train or truck through Siberia? Building pipelines will take a long time and likely wont suffice.

Also how would Russia or China defend supply chain that is a few thousand miles long?

Edited May 25, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Luca]

On 5/24/2023 at 5:57 PM, Viking said:

China’s model (political/economic) is simply not compatible with the West’s model. We have two different value systems. China played nicely for decades because they needed to take advantage of the West’s stupidity to accelerate their economic development (capital, technology transfer etc).. It worked brilliantly. Bottom line… China is a wolf… increasingly in wolf’s clothing. (It used to be in sheep's clothing.) Leadership in the West finally gets it. We are at economic war with China. And it is only going to get worse. War is a big word but it is accurate. What do you do when you are at war with someone… do you sell them advanced chips? Think about what that means.

The reason why the west now sees this increased incompatibility is because they are losing the positions they previously had, china is not a country where one can install factories or products, they are increasing their footprint everywhere, industries are competitive and even better than western peers (electric vehicles). They innovate way faster than europe for the most part, industries are close to each other. What the US calls economic War is just a China that can compete and even outcompete western peers. Goodbye Germany with their car dominance, Chinas EVs are top notch (Buffett and Berkshire know it). The export bans of equipment is just to prevent china developing to hope the current world order can be hold up. Imagine a China that is let free and can actually develop their presence over asia...

 

 

On 5/24/2023 at 5:57 PM, Viking said:

China’s model:

1.) keeping the communist party in power is the fundamental rule… EVERYTHING in life and society in China (and their interests abroad) exits to serve the CCP. Life. Laws. All subservient to the CCP.

In China the CCP controls everything, in the US its Capital. 

On 5/24/2023 at 5:57 PM, Viking said:

 

2.) rule of law does not exist… see #1… 

To say there is no rule of law is a stretch IMO. 

On 5/24/2023 at 5:57 PM, Viking said:

3.) individual rights do not exist… see #1…

You do have individual rights but in some areas they are heavily restricted.

On 5/24/2023 at 5:57 PM, Viking said:

People can be thrown in jail and your life’s possessions can be confiscated at the pleasure of the CCP. No reason necessary.

China is not a mafia state that just throws citizens into prison without any reason.

On 5/24/2023 at 5:57 PM, Viking said:

Businesses exist to serve the CCP. This includes foreign firms operating in China.

Businesses exist to serve the CCPs goals (which benefit citizens in china) which have been laid out pretty clearly at the 20th congress. 

 

On 5/24/2023 at 5:57 PM, Viking said:

5.) China’s interests abroad… also exist to serve the CCP. This is important.

Its a one party state so obviously foreign interests are CCP interests. As US foreign interests are there to serve the US parties.

On 5/24/2023 at 5:57 PM, Viking said:

- Chinese living abroad are tools of the CCP (just look at the China’s active involvement in Canadian elections, on site at universities, actively targeting families of Chinese Canadians who are anti-CCP). 

Yep, thats a problem!

 

 

 

 

 

 

On 5/24/2023 at 5:57 PM, Viking said:

it is simply the way the world works. The Disney movie is over. 
—————

Watch this video if you want to better understand the reality of living under the CCP/communist model of China. It is chilling. With all its flaws, living in a liberal democracy (of the West) is a wonderful gift. But liberal democracies are NOT the normal way. They are fragile. And can disappear if we do take it for granted and do stupid things.

—————-

Companies are figuring it out. Apple deciding to shift 25% of iPhone production to India is a seismic event. The Chinese economy has serious issues… they are still dealing with an epic property bubble. 
 

 

Thanks a lot for sharing viking and pushing back in discussion, video is on my watchlist!

[Dinar]

35 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Not in satisfactory quantity. How are they getting it to China? By train or truck through Siberia? Building pipelines will take a long time and likely wont suffice.

Also how would Russia or China defend supply chain that is a few thousand miles long?

What do you mean how will they defend it?  Are you proposing that we bomb Russia as well?

[Luca]

10 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

It goes way beyond ownership issues. If China attacks Taiwan, which may be of their to do list this decade, then I think Chinese equities may be stranded just like Russian stocks. I think something like BABA may be a <$40 stock if it happens tomorrow. Granted, AAPL may be down > 50% as well. There is no way of knowing what will happen with your ownership of a Cayman holding company that holds contractual rights of ownership to a Chinese business. Several stocks may end up on the US blacklist, which means you can’t buy them, only sell, if that.

 

Too many ways to get screwed here, Imo.

As of now attacking Taiwan will kill the global economy and will cause a depression and havoc for probably 10years+. It will also kill chinas own economy since they depend on TSMC a lot. If China gets cut off this will kill the global market even more, plenty of reason more to avoid the SP 500 if you think thats realistic. Agree with apple, their earnings will be affected for many many years to rebuild and reorganize the supply chains. The Cayman holdings have been around for 20 years+, its really the last thing i worry about to be honest. 

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, Luca said:

Ill try to take chinas viewpoint from here:

 

That's not proven and speculation to be fair. They did not ,,unleashed,, it, at least there is no 100% hard evidence for it.

I posted in the china thread that the US would never be in the position it is now without intellectual property theft. It is very true that Chinese try to get access to industries and try to copy existing technology to increase their own exports and wealth. On the other hand one can have a debate about IP and how legitimate current IP legislation is. This could perhaps explain the view of china:

 

,,The World Trade Organization proposed new, enhanced intellectual property rights, patent rights, which means monopoly pricing rights, far beyond anything that existed in the past. In fact they are not only designed to maximize monopoly pricing, and profit, but also to prevent development. That’s rather crucial. WTO rules introduced product patents. Used to be you could patent a process, but not the product. Which means if some smart guy could figure out a better way of doing it, he could do it. They want to block that. It’s important to block development and progress, in order to ensure monopoly rights. So they now have product patents,,

It was the only way for china to get where they are now with state directed economic policies that actively interfere in industry, cut off foreign markets, support local industry etc. Otherwise they would still just be a US manufacturing Hub of above described militarized monopolies. Also: Some industries just cant be spawned by itself, TSMC was state backed, Airplane production was partly state backed. 

 

Also not fair to say.

So you suggest to completely cut contact with 1.5b people and the second biggest economy in the world? 

Dude, when you say that Covid did not originate in China and the China is not helping Russia in its war against Ukraine, you lose all credibility.  And yes, better to not deal with China at all from the perspective of the civilized world (South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, Europe, USA)

[Luca]

4 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Dude, when you say that Covid did not originate in China and the China is not helping Russia in its war against Ukraine, you lose all credibility.  And yes, better to not deal with China at all from the perspective of the civilized world (South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, Europe, USA)

Never said it was not from China. But saying they unleashed it is also not proven completely. How in your opinion is China supporting Russia in their War in Ukraine?

Edited May 25, 2023 by Luca

[Luca]

@DinarI am also trying to take a contrarian perspective here. I am a concerned citizen from germany trying to look a bit deeper behind geopolitics than the normal rethoric  I also really appreciate any pushback, i am just trying to stimulate the discussion with throwing in some different perspectives.

Edited May 25, 2023 by Luca

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, Luca said:

The reason why the west now sees this increased incompatibility is because they are losing the positions they previously had, china is not a country where one can install factories or products, they are increasing their footprint everywhere, industries are competitive and even better than western peers (electric vehicles). They innovate way faster than europe for the most part, industries are close to each other. What the US calls economic War is just a China that can compete and even outcompete western peers. Goodbye Germany with their car dominance, Chinas EVs are top notch (Buffett and Berkshire know it). The export bans of equipment is just to prevent china developing to hope the current world order can be hold up. Imagine a China that is let free and can actually develop their presence over asia...

 

 

In China the CCP controls everything, in the US its Capital. 

To say there is no rule of law is a stretch IMO. 

You do have individual rights but in some areas they are heavily restricted.

China is not a mafia state that just throws citizens into prison without any reason.

Businesses exist to serve the CCPs goals (which benefit citizens in china) which have been laid out pretty clearly at the 20th congress. 

 

Its a one party state so obviously foreign interests are CCP interests. As US foreign interests are there to serve the US parties.

Yep, thats a problem!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks a lot for sharing viking and pushing back in discussion, video is on my watchlist!

Luca - you can’t be serious with this post lol?

 

China has just thrown people into prison.  There are about 1 million or more people in ‘education’ camps - yes it is a Mafia state, that’s exactly what it is.

 

China have deliberately ran a surplus with Western countries by i) pegging their currency and keeping it artificially weak, ii) enjoying most favoured nation status from most Western nations whilst preventing access to Western companies and goods through trade restrictions, iii) using the proceeds from their economic model to state funds businesses, buy up companies around the world, and put Western companies out of business, and iv) steal intellectual property from anywhere they can.

 

They’re a parasite state who the West have allowed to hollow out their industrial base by unfair and unbalanced trade practices, and as thanks they have built up their military to challenge us.  This is after the West rescued them from the Japanese in World War II.

 

If I was President, all trade would stop with China in my first term, and I would trade with democratic countries that play fair.  That would be my number one priority.  It would hurt but it needs done.

 

 

Edited May 25, 2023 by Sweet

[backtothebeach]

2 hours ago, Luca said:

China is not a mafia state that just throws citizens into prison without any reason.

 

Yeah right.

https://apnews.com/article/china-covid-citizen-journalist-b540f6458bc782b916dcd3aaa3571c12

 

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, Dinar said:

Dude, when you say that Covid did not originate in China and the China is not helping Russia in its war against Ukraine, you lose all credibility.  And yes, better to not deal with China at all from the perspective of the civilized world (South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, Europe, USA)

I think China does quite little to support the war effect directly. There is no evidence of a significant flow of weapons or ammo from China to Russia for example. The tech that makes it to Russia from China seem to be mostly consumer tech. The fact that Russia went to North Korea For ammo tells you already how much the Chinese are helping. Chinese companies are afraid of getting blacklisted - the Russian market is so small compared ro t(r Western Market that it’s not worth taking a chance.

 

I think Xi Jinping was informed about a special military operation during their meet at the Olympic Games but he did not expect this to escalate into a full blown war, so he is careful to keep a distance from this bloody mess, Imo.

Edited May 26, 2023 by Spekulatius