This ARKK Just Won't Float!

[Parsad]

Noah would be dismayed...85% of global fauna would be extinct on this ARKK!  Cheers!

 

https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etfs/cathie-wood-loses-money-on-every-stock-she-owns/?src=A00220

[Libs]

Man. That's hard do even if you tried.

[aws]

All her big gains were when the fund was tiny, then she attracted billions of inflows and tanked. The dollar weighted returns are probably something like -50% all time now.

[Mephistopheles]

Nonsense and sexist.

 

She said in April that she’d do 50%/year going forward. These are just temporary declines.

Edited December 16, 2022 by Mephistopheles

[Gregmal]

Still doesn’t outdo Napoleon Einhorn. I forget what year it was, but the guy managed to be short 2-3 of the top 10 performing long stocks while simultaneously long 2-3 of the top 10 worst performers in the S&P.

[Gregmal]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/david-einhorns-kid-dad-why-160601338.html

[Spekulatius]

14 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/david-einhorns-kid-dad-why-160601338.html

Einhorn was down just 20% even with those mistakes. Crazy Kathie would kill for this return this year.

[Gregmal]

14 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Einhorn was down just 20% even with those mistakes. Crazy Kathie would kill for this return this year.

I wouldn’t be shocked if she’s still got a better 5-10 year record than guys like Einhorn and Paulson. Many of the weasel funds are basically designed to just not do anything remarkable one way or another. Almost none of them do what they advertise. The majority of the fund business is filled with conmen(and women).

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Noobs. Tiger Global is down more than 50%. John Curtius is a genius, he gave money to companies at ridiculous valuations, now he left Tiger, started his own shop and is taking money from the very people he made rich. This is the perfect plan, I hope some hedge fund will with too much money to spare will make me an LP so that I can invest in startups and slap ridiculous valuations on them, make the founders rich, leave the firm and then start my own with the money I made these founders, and in the process get my name into something called 'Midas List'.

[Mephistopheles]

My issue with Cathie Wood is that she is shameless about marketing (50% returns, bitcoin at 50k, etc). And also has a pretentious way about her. As if she is above others on Wall Street because she focuses on innovation /esg.

Edited December 16, 2022 by Mephistopheles

[dealraker]

Like the episode in 1969 when I went to Joe's Beach where not one of 200 people believed in the moon landing... the huge belief today as to what is real and what isn't, Cathie type promotion/success/faceplanting has been around intermittently for all time.  Back in the 1990's a two time bank robber (yes true) became Wall Street's high tech guru, with both a newsletter and mutual fund.  CNBC once a week.., and more.  He claimed 5 times his money in x period and then...

 

...in the end investors in his fund got 10% of their original capital back.  He, like Cathie, stood fast on his "picks" ... then, just as Cathie did and does, began to promote/bail/swap/promote/bail/swap and so forth.

 

Life is great...if you can stand it!  Here's a brief on Michael Murphy:

 

https://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/moneymag_archive/2000/10/15/289518/index.htm

Edited December 16, 2022 by dealraker

[Libs]

14 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Still doesn’t outdo Napoleon Einhorn. I forget what year it was, but the guy managed to be short 2-3 of the top 10 performing long stocks while simultaneously long 2-3 of the top 10 worst performers in the S&P.

Greg, you really hate that guy! It's hilarious.

 

The Cathy Woods of the world are easy to spot and avoid. But Einhorn seemed legit. And so did Berkowitz. I recall seeing a picture of Berkowitz with an open shirt and sort of night-club look- in an official photo- and thinking, whoa, something is wrong here. What happened to the nerd Berkowitz? And sure enough, he had lost his way. Burry seems like another one who's gone a bit bonkers.

 

All of this is fun but not meaningful. The ideas posted and debated on COBF offer far more opportunity than culling the ideas of the 'gurus.' 

[Gregmal]

10 minutes ago, Libs said:

And so did Berkowitz. I recall seeing a picture of Berkowitz with an open shirt and sort of night-club look- in an official photo- and thinking, whoa, something is wrong here.

LOL @dealrakerhits on this sometimes which makes me laugh. But it’s true. Probably the 3 most influential investors in term of style, positioning and risk management in my book are Tepper, Ackman, and Berkowitz. Big fans though the later two certainly have some glaring flaws. But starting out when I did, I found it odd how Bruce had this aura about him. The ponytail, Gucci loafers, glasses that seemed to be for show, half buttoned shirt, etc. After a while he too became mockworthy. I was invested in what seemed to be a much better and high quality version of JOE at the time. And whenever something bad would happen, the joke was, hey, it could be worse, you could be St Joe.  All while marveling at what kind of conviction Bruce and Eddy must have to be down 75% on the SHLD investment and bleeding billions while cool as a cucumber doing round tables and with a straight face talking about how Sears was worth 10x their cost LOL. There’s a lot to learn for sure. Over the years I have come to appreciate all the different angles to the game. I’ve also kind of just lost it in terms of having an appetite for the guys who just suck and make excuses and then just sit around cheering or rooting for the failures of others cuz they have nothing better to do and it helps their egos.

Edited December 16, 2022 by Gregmal

[Parsad]

15 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Still doesn’t outdo Napoleon Einhorn. I forget what year it was, but the guy managed to be short 2-3 of the top 10 performing long stocks while simultaneously long 2-3 of the top 10 worst performers in the S&P.

 

2008.  He was on the board of New Century when it went bankrupt...largest mortgage bankruptcy in history.  He wouldn't talk about it after.  Cheers!

[maxthetrade]

6 hours ago, Libs said:

The Cathy Woods of the world are easy to spot and avoid. But Einhorn seemed legit.

Exactly. I've owned some GLRE in the past and still find it hard to tell when Einhorn lost it. 

[Sweet]

Has anyone seen this?

 

At this stage she is behaving like a crook because I can’t see this as being anything other than grossly misleading.

 

Best case scenario is she is totally delusional.

 

 

[Gregmal]

54 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Has anyone seen this?

 

At this stage she is behaving like a crook because I can’t see this as being anything other than grossly misleading.

 

Best case scenario is she is totally delusional.

 

 

Finance people on Twitter all pretty much fall into one category. 
 

People who

 

a) try to use the platform to pump their stocks or push their investment/career agendas

 

b) generate likes, retweets, followers and whatever to give themselves ego boosting self congratulatory pat on the backs through manufacturing as many retweetable “I called it”s as possible, which also works to enhance a)

 

From the smallest blokes with anonymous accounts to the William Ackmans…they all fit the same box. Cathy ain’t special in that regard, she’s just obnoxiously obvious.

 

 

Edited December 17, 2022 by Gregmal

[dealraker]

10 hours ago, Gregmal said:

LOL @dealrakerhits on this sometimes which makes me laugh. But it’s true. Probably the 3 most influential investors in term of style, positioning and risk management in my book are Tepper, Ackman, and Berkowitz. Big fans though the later two certainly have some glaring flaws. But starting out when I did, I found it odd how Bruce had this aura about him. The ponytail, Gucci loafers, glasses that seemed to be for show, half buttoned shirt, etc. After a while he too became mockworthy. I was invested in what seemed to be a much better and high quality version of JOE at the time. And whenever something bad would happen, the joke was, hey, it could be worse, you could be St Joe.  All while marveling at what kind of conviction Bruce and Eddy must have to be down 75% on the SHLD investment and bleeding billions while cool as a cucumber doing round tables and with a straight face talking about how Sears was worth 10x their cost LOL. There’s a lot to learn for sure. Over the years I have come to appreciate all the different angles to the game. I’ve also kind of just lost it in terms of having an appetite for the guys who just suck and make excuses and then just sit around cheering or rooting for the failures of others cuz they have nothing better to do and it helps their egos.

Bruce was incredibly insightful back in the early 90's up until about 2005.  He temporarily blew a fuse!  It was really bad.  But he has been a huge eye opener for me.

[Gregmal]

33 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Bruce was incredibly insightful back in the early 90's up until about 2005.  He temporarily blew a fuse!  It was really bad.  But he has been a huge eye opener for me.

Peak Berkowitz was a modern day value investing God. 
 

Another guy I admired but was also quite a sobering case study was David Winters. Classic value guy who got eaten alive by not adapting. 

[UK]

On 12/17/2022 at 5:14 AM, dealraker said:

Bruce was incredibly insightful back in the early 90's up until about 2005.  He temporarily blew a fuse!  It was really bad.  But he has been a huge eye opener for me.

 

I think it was in 2011 and I already new at that time about WB and co quite well, but Berkowitz and his thesis was also part of the reason I finally decided to invest in BAC and other US large banks in the end of that year. Those were a very good investments for me and I was very thankful for him, for educating me and everyone else on the attractiveness of big banks at that time in very plain language. (I miss this with JOE:)). And you would not believe how many mistakes I made with banks before, mainly by wrongly focusing on European banks:). So Berkowitz is my hero for this episode:)

 

Edited December 18, 2022 by UK

[UK]

On 12/16/2022 at 4:05 PM, dealraker said:

Like the episode in 1969 when I went to Joe's Beach where not one of 200 people believed in the moon landing... the huge belief today as to what is real and what isn't, Cathie type promotion/success/faceplanting has been around intermittently for all time.  Back in the 1990's a two time bank robber (yes true) became Wall Street's high tech guru, with both a newsletter and mutual fund.  CNBC once a week.., and more.  He claimed 5 times his money in x period and then...

 

...in the end investors in his fund got 10% of their original capital back.  He, like Cathie, stood fast on his "picks" ... then, just as Cathie did and does, began to promote/bail/swap/promote/bail/swap and so forth.

 

Life is great...if you can stand it!  Here's a brief on Michael Murphy:

 

https://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/moneymag_archive/2000/10/15/289518/index.htm

 

Interesting story and you can not say that the guy was not at least somewhat sensible:

 

Another explanation for Murphy's lackluster results is that he's a market timer, constantly shifting from stocks to cash in hopes of exploiting seasonal patterns he believes he's spotted. In April, after the Nasdaq crashed, Murphy told investors to get fully invested, theorizing that the battered market would skip the traditional summer slump in tech stocks. In July he reversed course, telling subscribers he was selling all his stocks to avoid an imminent 25% drop in the Nasdaq. Didn't happen. Murphy's about-face prompted a wave of angry calls and e-mail from subscribers. "Customer service," he recalls, "came to me and said, 'Can you put something on the hotline about what a moron you are? Because a lot of people are calling and saying you're a moron.'" Murphy says he's considering halting the practice of giving his subscribers market-timing advice.

 

 

[Xerxes]

Clearly, your anti-ARK biases is not allowing you guys to see the one that she nailed.

 

Why Is John Deere Part Of The New Ark Funds Space ETF? (yahoo.com)

Edited December 20, 2022 by Xerxes

[Parsad]

On 12/16/2022 at 5:33 PM, Sweet said:

Has anyone seen this?

 

At this stage she is behaving like a crook because I can’t see this as being anything other than grossly misleading.

 

Best case scenario is she is totally delusional.

 

 

 

I don't like Cathy Wood, but that video looks heavily edited.  I suspect some Twit edited it to give the impression she is throwing those numbers around in that manner, which is probably not the actual context of the interview.  Cheers!

[ValueArb]

3 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

I don't like Cathy Wood, but that video looks heavily edited.  I suspect some Twit edited it to give the impression she is throwing those numbers around in that manner, which is probably not the actual context of the interview.  Cheers!

 

They definitely added some effects, but the words are hers. One small segment of the market will be twice the entire market size in 8-10 years. Assuming the capitalization of the total market grows at a 10% growth rate over that period "disruptive" companies would go from 10% to roughly 80% of the total market cap! Non-disruptive companies would lose 50% of the market cap. So Apple, Coke, Berkshire, all bankrupt!

 

To quote the famous criminal psychologist Silberman from "The Terminator",

 

 SILBERMAN
                           (excited)
                      This is great stuff.  I could
                      make a career out of this guy gal.
                      You see how clever this part
                      is...how it doesn't require a
                      shred of proof.  Most paranoid
                      delusions are intricate...but
                      this is brilliant.

 

[UK]

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/third-points-loeb-says-cathie-wood-has-stonk-hodlers-mentality-432SI-2968787