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Fairfax Stock - New All Time High


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8 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

I stick to North American stocks, and in my circle, I'm having a very hard time finding stuff.  But we go through these periods and then either markets correct or a sector corrects and opportunity appears.  I'm a solid 50% cash in most accounts.  My trading accounts are at 65% cash. 

 

While US t-bill rates have somewhat held until recently, Canadian t-bill rates started falling a couple of months ago.  I did buy a bunch of Canadian high-dividend REITS a few months ago, which have done well and continue to pay fat dividends.  But I'm sitting on a large amount of cash and will wait to deploy when something strikes me as cheap.

 

But I've been doing this for 25 years now and it works really well!  Cash doesn't burn a hole in my pocket and I've managed to smooth out the bumps that don't let other people sleep well at night.  Cheers!


I’m literally borrowing money, I’m finding so many bargains.

 

Did you ever buy E-L Financial? I think I mentioned it to you a few years ago. Still a 40%+ discount to stated NAV and likely over 50% on liquidation value.

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1 hour ago, SafetyinNumbers said:


I’m literally borrowing money, I’m finding so many bargains.

 

Did you ever buy E-L Financial? I think I mentioned it to you a few years ago. Still a 40%+ discount to stated NAV and likely over 50% on liquidation value.

@SafetyinNumbers can you please let us know the bargain stocks? I am also having trouble at the moment finding cheap stuff lol

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2 minutes ago, Junior R said:

@SafetyinNumbers can you please let us know the bargain stocks? I am also having trouble at the moment finding cheap stuff lol


It’s generally stocks that won’t pass most investors screens because there is risk on execution but the return profiles look very compelling. I tweet about them and some of the other things I own @Brownmarubozu. 
 

I don’t want to pester the group with ideas they will never consider.

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10 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

I stick to North American stocks, and in my circle, I'm having a very hard time finding stuff.  But we go through these periods and then either markets correct or a sector corrects and opportunity appears.  I'm a solid 50% cash in most accounts.  My trading accounts are at 65% cash. 

 

While US t-bill rates have somewhat held until recently, Canadian t-bill rates started falling a couple of months ago.  I did buy a bunch of Canadian high-dividend REITS a few months ago, which have done well and continue to pay fat dividends.  But I'm sitting on a large amount of cash and will wait to deploy when something strikes me as cheap.

 

But I've been doing this for 25 years now and it works really well!  Cash doesn't burn a hole in my pocket and I've managed to smooth out the bumps that don't let other people sleep well at night.  Cheers!

Have you sold out on Meta? 

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24 minutes ago, benchmark said:

Have you sold out on Meta? 

 

Yes, I only have Meta in my personal holding company account and taxable account.  I don't trade really at all in either.  I still have all of my Fairfax in those two accounts.  I have a huge amount of capital gains in both and I'm better off letting them run, rather than paying tax and finding something else. 

 

I think both can continue to grow at 15%, so why sell, pay a huge amount of tax, only to find something compounding at 20%?  I'm also at the stage where I don't need to shoot the lights out anymore...even if I only did 8%, I would be very comfortable for the rest of my life.

 

Cheers!

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5 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

Arcosa is not cheap by any means.  With New England Realty, I have a bunch of REITS that have solid, consistent earnings, so it would just overlap what I already have in real estate.  Thanks for the ideas though!  Cheers!

Why do you think so?  Their barge business and wind tower business are inflecting in profitability.  I think that the barge business average over the cycle profits (EBIT) will be $120MM+ higher than what is being reported today.  CEO bought a million worth of stock $82 and another director bought 6,000 shares at $87 a few weeks ago. 

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3 hours ago, Munger_Disciple said:

 

What's your thesis on New England Realty?

60% below replacement cost, 10% cap rate, 4%+ distribution yield that should grow at around 8-10% per annum. 

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39 minutes ago, Munger_Disciple said:

Sounds cheap but why is the distribution low? Is it because they are reinvesting in new properties?

They also buy back roughly 1% of s/o per annum.  Distributions have grown at 9% per annum over the past 15 years.  They are very financially conservative

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4 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

Yes, I only have Meta in my personal holding company account and taxable account.  I don't trade really at all in either.  I still have all of my Fairfax in those two accounts.  I have a huge amount of capital gains in both and I'm better off letting them run, rather than paying tax and finding something else. 

 

I think both can continue to grow at 15%, so why sell, pay a huge amount of tax, only to find something compounding at 20%?  I'm also at the stage where I don't need to shoot the lights out anymore...even if I only did 8%, I would be very comfortable for the rest of my life.

 

Cheers!

@Parsad - if you don't mind sharing - do you live off dividends or trading income? Also any insights on when Prem is retiring?

Edited by TB
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1 hour ago, TB said:

@Parsad - if you don't mind sharing - do you live off dividends or trading income? Also any insights on when Prem is retiring?

 

I have other income, so I don't need to live off the dividends or trading income presently.  But if I choose to retire tomorrow, I could live off the dividends/interest income.  Any trading income is just icing on the cake! 

 

Prem will not retire.  Like Buffett he will likely work till the day he dies.  He loves what he does, and he can continue to compound it at a high rate.

 

Cheers!

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34 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

I have other income, so I don't need to live off the dividends or trading income presently.  But if I choose to retire tomorrow, I could live off the dividends/interest income.  Any trading income is just icing on the cake! 

 

Prem will not retire.  Like Buffett he will likely work till the day he dies.  He loves what he does, and he can continue to compound it at a high rate.

 

Cheers!

👍

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On 10/3/2024 at 5:44 PM, SafetyinNumbers said:


@mananainvesting asks a great question for the board.
 

How do you decide when to trim or sell all of your Fairfax position. All of the inputs you may consider are interesting to me.

 

My plan is not to sell any until I forecast forward ROE below 10%. I think it will be very hard to do that. 


In simplest “best practice” terms:

 

1) estimate intrinsic value

2) create a trade trigger to buy at a 40% discount to your estimate

3) create a trade trigger to sell at a 40% premium to your estimate

4) regularly update your intrinsic value estimate and your trade triggers (quarterly)

5) sit on your hands

 

^ this takes emotion and impulse transactions out of the equation

Edited by Thrifty3000
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