China

[whatstheofficerproblem]

14 hours ago, abyli said:

All wakeup Chinese are trying to get out of the country, rich or poor. There is no future, no hope in the country. 

 

I don't know if you're being sarcastic here. Sure, China has its flaws & ofcourse there is propaganda around but this statement seems a little farfetched.

 

I notice that you've had positions in China in the past, you've held PDD since IPO, do you still hold it? Also JD & BABA. What is your view on Chinese equities right now if you don't mind me asking. How do you see the equities market in China going forward, has your perception changed over the years? How much significance do you place on the broader macro here? Since you're from the country originally, your insight would be worth knowing.

[Hektor]

https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/china-growth-forecasts-alibaba-stock-155814f4

 

Chinese growth blew past expectations in the first quarter, but official figures of gross domestic product (GDP) released Tuesday belie wider weakness in the world’s second-largest economy, including persistent pressures from the property sector. 

Analysts see China’s economic recovery—on which the fortunes of some widely-held stocks rest—as fragile.

 

 

[whatstheofficerproblem]

2 hours ago, Hektor said:

Chinese growth blew past expectations in the first quarter, but official figures of gross domestic product (GDP) released Tuesday belie wider weakness in the world’s second-largest economy, including persistent pressures from the property sector.

 

Bold of you to post it on here knowing it will be called fake. The hate China gets is somewhat justified, but this thread has the same arguments repeated over and over with the same rebuttals given over and over. This thread has taken a couple inches off my hairline, a very frustrating read.

[Sweet]

7 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

 

Bold of you to post it on here knowing it will be called fake. The hate China gets is somewhat justified, but this thread has the same arguments repeated over and over with the same rebuttals given over and over. This thread has taken a couple inches off my hairline, a very frustrating read.

Why is it bold to post that? 

 

I didn’t detect anyone complaining about commentary like this.

[Hektor]

7 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

Bold of you to post it on here knowing it will be called fake. The hate China gets is somewhat justified, but this thread has the same arguments repeated over and over with the same rebuttals given over and over. This thread has taken a couple inches off my hairline, a very frustrating read.

Not my opinion. It’s an excerpt from the article, so that one can decide to click and read more or simply ignore

[Spekulatius]

10 hours ago, Hektor said:

https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/china-growth-forecasts-alibaba-stock-155814f4

 

 

Chinese growth blew past expectations in the first quarter, but official figures of gross domestic product (GDP) released Tuesday belie wider weakness in the world’s second-largest economy, including persistent pressures from the property sector. 

Analysts see China’s economic recovery—on which the fortunes of some widely-held stocks rest—as fragile.

 

 

Alibaba falling seems to be a case of where economic good news is bad news for the stock market. I have heard another economic forecaster talking about the Chinese economy looking stronger than predicted.

 

Here is the version on Archive:

https://archive.ph/IRPMZ

[abyli]

15 hours ago, Hektor said:

https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/china-growth-forecasts-alibaba-stock-155814f4

 

 

Chinese growth blew past expectations in the first quarter, but official figures of gross domestic product (GDP) released Tuesday belie wider weakness in the world’s second-largest economy, including persistent pressures from the property sector. 

Analysts see China’s economic recovery—on which the fortunes of some widely-held stocks rest—as fragile.

 

 

 

Q1 2024 29.6Trillion

Q1 2023 28.5 Trillion

 

29.6/28.5 = 103.9%, that was 3.9% increase from Q1 2023, where did the 5.3% come from? 

 

Q4 2023 34.4Trillion

29.6/34.4 = 86%, so Q1 2024 was down 14% from last quarter Q4 2023. 

 

It is obvious all those GDP numbers are faked.... 

 

 

[abyli]

16 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

 

I don't know if you're being sarcastic here. Sure, China has its flaws & ofcourse there is propaganda around but this statement seems a little farfetched.

 

I notice that you've had positions in China in the past, you've held PDD since IPO, do you still hold it? Also JD & BABA. What is your view on Chinese equities right now if you don't mind me asking. How do you see the equities market in China going forward, has your perception changed over the years? How much significance do you place on the broader macro here? Since you're from the country originally, your insight would be worth knowing.

 

No, I dare not touch Chinese equities any more. I like PDD the company, I trust the management team. The key question is if CEO of any Chinese company cannot even protect his own life, how can he/she protect your interest? Remember, this is a communist country. There is no law to protect private properties. The government can take away your house anytime, can make you disappear any day. The communist party control the government, control the police, control the court, control all the big banks, control all the media. Now with digital tools, the gov can control every single posts online (they can remove your posts, can block your accounts, can send you into prison just because you said one word they considered wrong), they have records of every word you typed in WeChat. Before 2012, the top 7 guys from CCP make big decisions as a group. Now Xi has the power to stay there forever.... 

[Sweet]

6 hours ago, abyli said:

 

Q1 2024 29.6Trillion

Q1 2023 28.5 Trillion

 

29.6/28.5 = 103.9%, that was 3.9% increase from Q1 2023, where did the 5.3% come from? 

 

Q4 2023 34.4Trillion

29.6/34.4 = 86%, so Q1 2024 was down 14% from last quarter Q4 2023. 

 

It is obvious all those GDP numbers are faked.... 

 

 

Where are you getting those GDP figures from?

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Thanks for the insight @abyli, but wasn't this the case a few years ago too? Everything you mentioned has been that way since Xi came into power. You were bullish then, what was the nail in the coffin for you? the virus?

[zippy1]

3 hours ago, Sweet said:

Where are you getting those GDP figures from?

Here is the 2023 Q1 report from National Bureau of Statstics
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202304/t20230419_1938791.html
Here is the 2024 Q1 report from National Bureau of Statstics
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202404/t20240417_1954640.html

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

Thanks for the insight @abyli, but wasn't this the case a few years ago too? Everything you mentioned has been that way since Xi came into power. You were bullish then, what was the nail in the coffin for you? the virus?

Xi came into power in 2013 but it did only became gradually obvious that Chinese way of checks and balances within the party (via committees and fractions and term limits  ) are replaced with one man Neo Maoist rule.

 

The Frog is slowly getting boiled, I guess.

 

I have a few shares of BABA which I intend to hold, but I have a hard time seeing me making a large investment in Chinese equities until something changes for the better.

Edited April 17, 2024 by Spekulatius

[Sweet]

16 minutes ago, zippy1 said:

Here is the 2023 Q1 report from National Bureau of Statstics
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202304/t20230419_1938791.html
Here is the 2024 Q1 report from National Bureau of Statstics
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202404/t20240417_1954640.html

 

17 minutes ago, zippy1 said:

Here is the 2023 Q1 report from National Bureau of Statstics
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202304/t20230419_1938791.html
Here is the 2024 Q1 report from National Bureau of Statstics
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202404/t20240417_1954640.html

Thanks.  That’s not 5.3%

[zippy1]

2 minutes ago, Sweet said:

 

Thanks.  That’s not 5.3%

Some suspected that the Q1 2023 GDP was "quietly" revised down to make the Q1 2024 5.3% growth.
Of course, that begs the question whether later on the Q1 2024 GDP number would be revised down quietly...

[abyli]

5 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

Thanks for the insight @abyli, but wasn't this the case a few years ago too? Everything you mentioned has been that way since Xi came into power. You were bullish then, what was the nail in the coffin for you? the virus?

 

Yes, you are right. You know, all Chinese were brain-washed since they were born, and they are still brain-washed 24 hours every day. That is why China blocked all international websites so that they can run their propaganda machine powerfully. The covid-19 woke me up. 

[crs223]

2 hours ago, abyli said:

 

all Chinese were brain-washed since they were born, and they are still brain-washed 24 hours every day.

 

What are some things that Chinese people don't know?

[abyli]

1 hour ago, crs223 said:

 

What are some things that Chinese people don't know?

Give you a few example: 1. In World War II, it was Communists who fought Japanese mainly. 2. In 1949 Communists won the domestic war because Communists are popular in China. 3. All major global issues happen because of USA: Russia went into Ukraine because of NATO and USA. 4. The China economy is not currently doing well because US sanctions China. 5. USA the empire always wants to overthrow China. (美帝国主义忘我之心不死)。。。

[Sweet]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-68838219

 

Good article that mixes the concerns of the West, the receding of manufacturer from China, and shows that even though we are not at war with China there is a real human cost to this as well.  Can't help but feel sorry for the many ordinary Chinese - although I would note that 40 years ago it was Western workers that were in the same boat.  Still a sober story.

[Sweet]

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/china-jan-mar-foreign-direct-investment-fell-26-1-on-year-to-cny301-67-bln-1f812956

 

FDI into China dropped 26% yoy

[Spekulatius]

Pretty good and short assessment of the situation from Sarah Paine :

 

She is correct (imo) that dictators tend to tell anyone who will listen what they are going to do, before they do it. She very well explains the difference between maritime and continental order and how cooperation creates wealth via win win versus expansion and win-lose.

Edited April 21, 2024 by Spekulatius

[Paarslaars]

https://pracap.com/on-china-why-the-real-risk-is-cny-5-not-9/

[Intelligent_Investor]

Market is probably pricing in the WSJ news this morning that the US is preparing to sanction China

[Malmqky]

6 minutes ago, Intelligent_Investor said:

Market is probably pricing in the WSJ news this morning that the US is preparing to sanction China

 

looks like KWEB is up today? And my Chinese investments are up as well. Can you please clarify what you mean?

[Intelligent_Investor]

China was down the last several weeks, I'm assuming someone probably got wind of the news and was pricing it in

[changegonnacome]

One of the key questions investors have asked themselves re:China is what do you own in the context of the CCP coming in one day, overriding shareholder ownerships principles and compelling these companies to do XYZ that hurts the shareholders returns by making them do something uneconomic....which the story goes is "your fault"....because you bought a company in a communist country that doesn't care about the free market.

 

Well as the US congress, senate and now WH are signing a law to force a US firm with foreign parent into a forced sales process from its overseas parent...the question a Chinese domiciled investor should be asking ( ironically in the context of the above) is can you trust an investment in a firm with a large United States domiciled component cause the US government might come in and force that company to do something uneconomic....like force it to sell a business in a fire sale.