Russia-Ukrainian War

[cubsfan]

That’s a very romanticized version of Mexico - a country run by a corrupt government in the back pocket of murdering drug cartels. Our greatest enemy has to be Mexico followed by China.

 

Yeah, we really don’t need a border…

 

We lose 100,000 citizens a year to fentanyl- 2X what we lost during the Vietnam war - so that Mexico and China can line their pockets.

 

There is no bigger problem in our country today than organized crime from Mexico killing our young people.

Mexico makes the Mafia look like a street gang.

Edited August 17, 2023 by cubsfan

[mcliu]

21 hours ago, ValueArb said:

Most of our military aid to Ukraine is obsolete equipment we never planned to use pulled from long term storage depots. The idea they are actually worth the billions we’ve claimed is suspect. Even if they are the $50B or so we’ve doled out so far is roughly 0.5% of total federal spending since the war started.

 

There is no either or scenario here.

$100B here, $100B there, and soon your country is $33T in debt.  

Don't forget, it's not only military aid, the West is also funding Ukrainian government expenditures and essentially keeping the whole country afloat..

 

My gripe with your border is that if Mexicans can cross freely into the US, Canadian should be able to do the same. The lines at the Can-US crossings are long and annoying!

[mcliu]

6 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Hey - you forgot the biggest disaster which is the southern border.

 

We’ll protect the Ukraine and Canada border - but not the Mexican!

 

But the answer to your question: it’s happening because of corrupt leadership that is setting the USA back for years - while they enrich themselves at the expense of the citizens. Just as Obama, Hillary and Hunter.

Same issues in Canada. The leadership here has given up on fixing the real problems (housing, healthcare, drugs, poverty, education, infrastructure) and instead just distracts everyone with "social issues". 

Edited August 17, 2023 by mcliu

[ValueArb]

12 hours ago, mcliu said:

$100B here, $100B there, and soon your country is $33T in debt.  

Don't forget, it's not only military aid, the West is also funding Ukrainian government expenditures and essentially keeping the whole country afloat..

 

My gripe with your border is that if Mexicans can cross freely into the US, Canadian should be able to do the same. The lines at the Can-US crossings are long and annoying!

Even $100B is a tiny fraction of federal spending since the war started. And for a much better cause than a large amount of federal spending, I’d happily cancel the SLS and Orion capsule for money would go to Ukraine.

[Saluki]

13 hours ago, mcliu said:

My gripe with your border is that if Mexicans can cross freely into the US, Canadian should be able to do the same. The lines at the Can-US crossings are long and annoying!

 

The lines are much worse at the US/Mexican border crossing.  If by "freely", you mean going across some section of unguarded border, you a free to try to swim Lake Michigan or drive from Calgary towards the border and attempt a mountain crossing on foot.  I should warn you, the amount of people who die trying to cross the desert into the US to avoid the manned borders is not small. Maybe swimming Lake Michigan would have a higher survival rate, who knows? 

[cubsfan]

^^^ The difference is if you cross the border illegally into the USA from Canada- you are NOT allowed to stay in the USA - you are immediately removed from the country.

 

I’d much rather have thousands of illegal Canadians here with skills than millions of destitute poor mixed with criminals destroying our country.

Edited August 17, 2023 by cubsfan

[mcliu]

1 hour ago, Saluki said:

 

The lines are much worse at the US/Mexican border crossing.  If by "freely", you mean going across some section of unguarded border, you a free to try to swim Lake Michigan or drive from Calgary towards the border and attempt a mountain crossing on foot.  I should warn you, the amount of people who die trying to cross the desert into the US to avoid the manned borders is not small. Maybe swimming Lake Michigan would have a higher survival rate, who knows? 

I think ValueArb suggested that having open borders with Mexico was a better solution since it promoted circular migration. I'm just saying, if it's possible with Mexico, it should be possible with Canada.

 

 

[mcliu]

2 hours ago, ValueArb said:

Even $100B is a tiny fraction of federal spending since the war started. And for a much better cause than a large amount of federal spending, I’d happily cancel the SLS and Orion capsule for money would go to Ukraine.

Majority of Americans were in favour of the Iraq war in the first year too.

What happens if this conflicts lasts 10 years and costs $2T?

It's hard to quit a war once you get dragged in.

[cubsfan]

^^^ it’s a good point, but in the process Russia will go broke, especially if the Europeans, who have the most to lose,  pitch in with spending.

[John Hjorth]

49 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

^^^ it’s a good point, but in the process Russia will go broke, especially if the Europeans, who have the most to lose,  pitch in with spending.

 

Yes, Mike [ @cubsfan ] and @mcliu,

 

Yes, several European partnerships to deliver this and that [frigates, patrolships etc.] have been formed, with those generating higher GDPs in the European countries involved!

 

How do one measure the costs related to a certain specific warfare activity?

 

Not only the US military complex, whole worlds military complex exist based on having its trunks [elephant ones!] dipped deep and permanent into defence budgets of individual states all around the world. 

 

The mayors in the cities where HII [Huntington Ingalls] has ship / sub building activities are little interested in stopping all US global involvement in warfare, as the mayor of Wolfsburg, Germany is in management consultants running lean projects at Volkswagen AG.

Edited August 17, 2023 by John Hjorth

[cubsfan]

5 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

How do one measure the costs related to a certain specific warfare activity?

@John Hjorth  You measure success by spending a small fortune in the front end, so you don’t have to bankrupt your country and lose 40 million lives on the back end.

[ValueArb]

2 hours ago, mcliu said:

Majority of Americans were in favour of the Iraq war in the first year too.

What happens if this conflicts lasts 10 years and costs $2T?

It's hard to quit a war once you get dragged in.

 

We'd have to more than double spending to get to $2T in a decade. And its popularity should always outshine Afghanistan, where we spent what, $1T?

 

I've always said this is a 3-5 year war. Russia's history is the political collapse occurs in the 2nd or 3rd year, after the mothers start marching in the streets. They can't keep it up for a decade, Ukraine can because it has no choice, Russia does.

[ValueArb]

2 hours ago, mcliu said:

I think ValueArb suggested that having open borders with Mexico was a better solution since it promoted circular migration. I'm just saying, if it's possible with Mexico, it should be possible with Canada.

 

 

 

"OpEn BOaRdErs" is such a dog whistle. I would suggest work visas so we know who come in so we can better filter out criminals and let good workers return as long as they stay in Mexico half the year.

 

That would destroy the coyote business, unmask the wolves hiding amid the sheep and eliminate the need for a border wall. I once had a family member killed by a migrant, the community knew where he was, hated him but none could say anything out of fear if they went to the police they'd be deported. 

[Xerxes]

3 hours ago, mcliu said:

Majority of Americans were in favour of the Iraq war in the first year too.

What happens if this conflicts lasts 10 years and costs $2T?

It's hard to quit a war once you get dragged in.

personally, I think it comes down “taste”, feel, political orientation, and what point one wants to score, when it comes down to decide what include/exclude in any postmortem analysis. 

 

if a geopolitical decision in a given time, changes the trajectory of history, does one need to re-run the entire business case with a “what if scenario” as a hurdle rate

 

For me anyways, analysis of “ohh it is just $50-$100 billion or” is just plain silly.
 

The front end is always easy to quantify in dollar terms, and sure enough is conclusive enough for isolated cases, de-coupled from current of history. But it gets very tricky for systematic cases. Case in point Iraq. 
 

Some idiots in DC (and their citizen supporters)* decides it would be fun to have some fun with Iraq. Life is too boring. Let’s spice thing up, they said. Let’s just make things up at UN, they said, and let’s through around 9/11 for good measure, they thought. Hell yeah, let’s blow stuff up !!!

 

Yeap, soon after US current surplus went into deficit …. And stayed there. Does that goes into the postmortem business case analysis or just the upfront investment needed to BS. 
 

* no different than Moscovites supporting the war in Ukraine 

[mcliu]

37 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

We'd have to more than double spending to get to $2T in a decade. And its popularity should always outshine Afghanistan, where we spent what, $1T?

 

I've always said this is a 3-5 year war. Russia's history is the political collapse occurs in the 2nd or 3rd year, after the mothers start marching in the streets. They can't keep it up for a decade, Ukraine can because it has no choice, Russia does.

Everyone wants a short war that achieves its objective.. but history suggests that things rarely go as planned. 

 

33 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

"OpEn BOaRdErs" is such a dog whistle. I would suggest work visas so we know who come in so we can better filter out criminals and let good workers return as long as they stay in Mexico half the year.

 

That would destroy the coyote business, unmask the wolves hiding amid the sheep and eliminate the need for a border wall. I once had a family member killed by a migrant, the community knew where he was, hated him but none could say anything out of fear if they went to the police they'd be deported. 

How would work visas work unless you keep track of everyone that's going in and out of the country?

[ValueArb]

2 minutes ago, mcliu said:

Everyone wants a short war that achieves its objective.. but history suggests that things rarely go as planned. 

 

How would work visas work unless you keep track of everyone that's going in and out of the country?

 

Because work visas are recorded, and they can easily keep a database of who is entering and leaving the country? It also mean you have been vetted and don't have a criminal history. And that when you get pulled over by the police for a minor traffic infraction, there is no reason to run for fear of deportation. And when you witness a crime, you can be a cooperating witness without fear of being deported. 

 

Imagine all the resources work visas free up? Resources that can be focused on finding and dealing with the real bad guys, and who can now be found and dealt with much easier since they can't hide in an ocean of illegals. 

[John Hjorth]

Reuters [ August 20^th 2023, 4:08 PM +2 GMT] : Netherlands, Denmark commit to delivering F16s to Ukraine.

 

The total F-16s from Denmark is 19, 5 ETA Ukraine year end 2023, rest over 2024 and 2025.

[cwericb]

On 8/17/2023 at 1:18 PM, cubsfan said:

^^^ The difference is if you cross the border illegally into the USA from Canada- you are NOT allowed to stay in the USA - you are immediately removed from the country.

 

I’d much rather have thousands of illegal Canadians here with skills than millions of destitute poor mixed with criminals destroying our country.

 

I have two Canadian female friends (who don't know each other). Both are living in the US illegally. Both are are hard working, well educated, fifth generation Canadians. Both are married to Americans. Neither can get Green Cards or US citizenship.

 

One has been in the US for over 20 years and I personally know that she has spent well into six figures on lawyers trying to obtain American citizenship and it's like banging your head against a brick wall. 

 

They live in a catch 22 situation where they can't leave the US for family emergencies or any other reason because it is unlikely they could ever return to their husbands and homes, despite having lived there, worked there, paid their taxes there and own homes there. Neither has any sort of police record.

 

On the other hand I have several friends from Cuba who have risked their lives travelling through central America to enter the US over the Mexican border and are now working in Miami.

 

On the other hand here, where I live in Canada, we are acquiring more and Americans neighbours spending their summers here to avoid the heat of the Southern States and are quite welcome to do so.

 

THIS IS JUST PLAIN NUTS!

 

 

[lnofeisone]

39 minutes ago, cwericb said:

 

I have two Canadian female friends (who don't know each other). Both are living in the US illegally. Both are are hard working, well educated, fifth generation Canadians. Both are married to Americans. Neither can get Green Cards or US citizenship.

I'm guessing, USCIS has a problem here is that they (the friends) live in the US illegally. For anyone that spent over 365 days in the US illegally the penalty is to live outside of the US for 10 years. This is what your friend trying to fight and the odds of her being successful is near 0. Otherwise, Canadians marrying US citizens have a very straightforward path to get to green card and then citizenship (as is with most nationals).

[cubsfan]

^^^^^ But if you cross in via the southern border- no problem at all!

 

And they’ll give you a plane or bus ticket to anywhere you want to go even if you are a criminal!

 

Nothing like double standards 

[cwericb]

4 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

I'm guessing, USCIS has a problem here is that they (the friends) live in the US illegally. For anyone that spent over 365 days in the US illegally the penalty is to live outside of the US for 10 years. This is what your friend trying to fight and the odds of her being successful is near 0. Otherwise, Canadians marrying US citizens have a very straightforward path to get to green card and then citizenship (as is with most nationals).

 

 

Yes unfortunately, you are more or less correct in what you say, however in both cases the situation occurred more through ignorance than through intent. 

 

One individual was touring in the entertainment industry, the other was crewing offshore registered yachts. Both of these ‘undesirables’ have a university education, one with a Masters degree.

 

I believe there are tens of thousands of Canadians living in the US illegally. Likewise, I suspect there may be thousands of Americans living in Canada illegally (however, I think the Canadian immigration laws may be more liberal). For the most part, both groups are contributing to society in both countries and yet are refused citizenship. Yet both countries use the taxes paid by these ‘CanAm illegals’ to support immigrants from any number of other countries who arrive with no money, little education and unknown pasts.

 

Sorry for the rants, but it is a sore point.

 

Edited August 21, 2023 by cwericb

[Andrew Moser]

What odds could you have gotten in a Deadpool for Prizgoven(sp?) before today? In case people haven’t seen he was listed among the dead in a private plane crash in Russia today.

Edited August 23, 2023 by kimoser22

[John Hjorth]

43 minutes ago, kimoser22 said:

What odds could you have gotten in a Deadpool for Prizgoven(sp?) before today? In case people haven’t seen he was listed among the dead in a private plane crash in Russia today.

 

This is news from TASS, redistributed by other MSM. I want to see it from Reuters, before I will apply any weight to this. So much *BS* about this person posted everywhere.

[ValueArb]

1 hour ago, kimoser22 said:

What odds could you have gotten in a Deadpool for Prizgoven(sp?) before today? In case people haven’t seen he was listed among the dead in a private plane crash in Russia today.

 

Also claims that Russian Air Defense shot the plane down. That seems like an extraordinary thing to do when the FSB could have just planted a bomb in the cargo hold. 

 

Bad week already for Russia.  Lost Robotyne putting HIMARS even closer to cutting off the Crimean landbridge, lost its first top of the line S-400 SAM system to a drone in Crimea, lost a Backfire bomber to drone attack forcing an entire air wing to move deeper into Russia, lost a helicopter full of fighter plane parts due to defection or navigation failure, has suffered drone attacks on Moscow for six straight days, and  is sinking six ferries alongside the Kerch bridge to protect it from attack.

[HubbadaPow]

Russia offers to swap frozen assets with the west

https://www.ft.com/content/a5598c9d-99f5-45c3-98eb-2f797f2cc85b
 

the comments on this article are almost unanimously against this proposal.