Russia-Ukrainian War

[Xerxes]

If I am not mistaken some of that Russian hydrocarbon piped through Ukraine is refined and used by Ukrainian military fighting Kremlin’ war machine … the irony in that  

 

to think of it, this is probably to put pressure on the pro Russian states (I.e Hungary etc)

[boilermaker75]

On 7/5/2023 at 12:55 PM, Spekulatius said:

Upthread it was stated that Wagner are more like pirates, but I think they are more like Privateers. Same job than pirates, but commissioned by the state/crown (British empire mostly).

Difference is that pirates work for their own, Mercenaries work for whoever pays most, but Privateers were private ventures who worked for the crown but used monetary incentives to wage war on the sea on enemy vessels. I am not sure that plausible deniability term existed back then, but I am sure the crown could not be reached for comments back then regarding this business either.

 

In France they were the Corsairs,  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_corsairs

[Xerxes]

Looks like cluster weapons are green lighted to transfer to Ukraine as of today. 
 

Word on the street is that the US deputy defence point man himself was in Kiev to deliver the goodies 

 

 

Oops wrong picture. That is Rumsfeld in 1983 in Baghdad fuelling the Iraqi war machine against against Iran. The same Rumsfeld that got so cute with this unknown-unknown mumbo jumbo when the Bad Guys list was updated: 

 

Bad Guys circa 1991: USSR, Iran, Saruman, Sauron, Gollum, Saddam 

[Spekulatius]

56 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Looks like cluster weapons are green lighted to transfer to Ukraine as of today. 
 

Word on the street is that the US deputy defence point man himself was in Kiev to deliver the goodies 

 

 

Oops wrong picture. That is Rumsfeld in 1983 in Baghdad fuelling the Iraqi war machine against against Iran. The same Rumsfeld that got so cute with this unknown-unknown mumbo jumbo when the Bad Guys list was updated: 

 

Bad Guys circa 1991: USSR, Iran, Saruman, Sauron, Gollum, Saddam 

Russia is using cluster ammo in Ukraine and the US sure can do better then they do. No need to follow rules that the enemy has already cancelled.

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/02/ukraine-cluster-munitions-kill-child-and-two-other-civilians-taking-shelter-at-a-preschool/

FWIW, neither Russia, Ukraine nor the USA signed the cluster ammunition ban.

[Xerxes]

^^^ my gut feeling/hope is that Ukraine does know what it is doing (somewhat) and US intelligence has credible information that it knows what it’s doing otherwise they wouldn’t have transferred

 

or ……the reverse of that is that US intelligence has credible info how bad is the ammunition shortage in the offensive that they are betting the house and lean in hard. 
 

Either war, signing or not signing the ban, this is a new low. But then again it is what it is in what is becoming fast a zero sum game 

 

 

Edit: meaning it has not nothing to do with Russian hitting that low first, this would have happened because they want to make the Ukrainian offensive successfully and clear the battlefield 

Edited July 7, 2023 by Xerxes

[Spekulatius]

The ammo shortage has been overhyped. just recently, the CEO of Rheinmetal, stated they can deliver 650k of 155mm ammo annual run rate. Thats just one company (albeit the biggest one in Germany) in the NATO. Ukraine is not going to run out of artillery shells for sure.

 

I think the cluster ammo came up because because Ukraine ask for it, According to one pundit, it is highly useful to clear out Russian trenches as part of the offensive. It also can be used to clear a path in the Russian minefields which which have been hampering the offensive.

 

FWIW, the tungsten Ball payloads for HMARS doesn’t even count as cluster ammo.

[lnofeisone]

16 hours ago, UK said:

 

I am not sure, but it seems that these remaining flows is about 9 per cent of total pre war EU gas import from Russia? Still could be painful for some countries (including Hungary), but maybe manageable / already not the issue for most EU?

 

I think the trick here is to think about Ukraine. Ukraine isn't counted in Europe's energy consumption/imports. Ukraine also buys nat gas from traders who buy it from Russia, i.e., Ukraine flows Russian gas to europe and then flows it back. Russia's exports are roughly 10% of its pre-war capacity to about 15 bcm (from ~150 bcm). Ukraine's imported gas is roughly 10-12bcm. I wouldn't be surprised if 100% of Ukraine's imported gas is Russian. 

 

With all European LNG terminals up and running, I think the actual pipe sizes is what will matter and I suspect the pipes aren't large enough to supply the host import country (e.g., Germany) and ship to Ukraine. 

[John Hjorth]

On 7/3/2023 at 5:28 AM, John Hjorth said:

Has anybody seen any tangible / solid information about the whereabouts of Yevgeny Prigozhin recently [in the last week]?

 

Two weeks today since what I have called the coup d'état. Still no *real* [tangible / solid]  information about what's going on inside Russia.

 

I'm puzzled.

[Xerxes]

57 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Two weeks today since what I have called the coup d'état. Still no *real* [tangible / solid]  information about what's going on inside Russia.

 

I'm puzzled.

No need to be puzzled John. This is infact highly consistent. 
 

"Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma" ~ Sir Winston Churchill 

[Xerxes]

Here are some infamous quotes from Sir Winston. Most of which we need to pretend to not know in this day and age. 
 

https://amp.theguardian.com/theguardian/2002/nov/28/features11.g21

[John Hjorth]

9 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

No need to be puzzled John. This is infact highly consistent. 
 

"Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma" ~ Sir Winston Churchill 

 

 Great one, @Xerxes!,

 

What do you do to take down a man who takes him self too seriously? You troll him and pull pranks on him, so he looses face.

 

Twitter : Phillips O'Brien : Ukrainians openly trolling Russian navy .

 

Twitter : How to pull a prank, saying "Who owns whose a**" [Normally, this phenomen is about cats, not dogs.]

 

 

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Two weeks today since what I have called the coup d'état. Still no *real* [tangible / solid]  information about what's going on inside Russia.

 

I'm puzzled.

There is a decent discussion on CNN with Bill Browder (who gets a lot of air time). Bill think there is more than meets the eye. The actions of Putin regarding this coup make no sense with just the information provided. According to Bill, they even returned the $111M in cash they found at the raid of Prighozhins office there (to whom exactly is unclear ). 

Bill thinks both Prigozhin and Putin have killers out there.

 

Just my guess - if someone gets accidentally smashed by a hammer, it is probably Prigozhins guys, if the die of nerve gas or polonium poisoning or fall out a window, it’s on Putin hitmen.

Edited July 8, 2023 by Spekulatius

[John Hjorth]

It's pretty striking to me, I would say, that not Browder, nor Kasparov, nor Khodorkovsky has much tangible to add here. Perhaps it's time to just settle with the Winston Churchil quote above posted by @Xerxes, and to shrug.

 

Edited July 8, 2023 by John Hjorth

[Xerxes]

3 hours ago, Xerxes said:

No need to be puzzled John. This is infact highly consistent. 
 

"Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma" ~ Sir Winston Churchill 

 

….. but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest” ~ Sir Winston concludes after making the quote 

 

the quote came about or after the signing of Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact in 1939 

[John Hjorth]

"Russian National Interest" in casu? - Please give me a break. The man is runnning and ruling the country for his own personal benefit.

[Xerxes]

5 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

"Russian National Interest" in casu? - Please give me a break. The man is runnning and ruling the country for his own personal benefit.

yeap. And so did Joseph Stalin, the non-Russian leader of the Kremlin. 
 

Russian national interest does not equal what is good for Russian people. It does however reflect what is good for the Kremlin and the elitist. 
 

who am I to argue with Sir Winston anyway ?

 

in any case, on Pregovign ‘ case, I think the CNN interview with Bill has it right. His connection to Africa is paramount for “Russian national interest” or however you might want to call it. 

[Castanza]

18 hours ago, Xerxes said:

^^^ my gut feeling/hope is that Ukraine does know what it is doing (somewhat) and US intelligence has credible information that it knows what it’s doing otherwise they wouldn’t have transferred

Mmmm idk, go back to the Cuban missile crisis and pretty much everyone but Kennedy wanted to start a nuclear war. Every general and advisor was pounding the table to attack Cuba. One of the few times in history where a single man had such an important decision with hindsight outcome. Ignorance and miscalculations are just at common at the highest level of governments and their military leadership. 
 

Not saying it’s not the right move. But a match in escalation could also be the start of a new path which in the end could be the wrong move. Time will tell.

 

18 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

FWIW, the tungsten Ball payloads for HMARS doesn’t even count as cluster ammo

 

DPICMs are what’s being shipped. They are guided cluster bombs that have various submunitions like incendiary, armor piercing, or just regular anti personnel shrapnel type explosive. They absolutely are cluster bombs. Obama was trying to retire them in 06 (which Biden was in favor of) over his term. Trump got rid of that program and not Biden is utilizing them. Pretty ironic tbh. 

[John Hjorth]

12 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

... who am I to argue with Sir Winston anyway ? ...

 

Please just give it a go. There is nothing as entertaining as a good libel trial, especially when your opponent is deceased. Up it Up!

[Spekulatius]

34 minutes ago, Castanza said:

Mmmm idk, go back to the Cuban missile crisis and pretty much everyone but Kennedy wanted to start a nuclear war. Every general and advisor was pounding the table to attack Cuba. One of the few times in history where a single man had such an important decision with hindsight outcome. Ignorance and miscalculations are just at common at the highest level of governments and their military leadership. 
 

Not saying it’s not the right move. But a match in escalation could also be the start of a new path which in the end could be the wrong move. Time will tell.

 

 

DPICMs are what’s being shipped. They are guided cluster bombs that have various submunitions like incendiary, armor piercing, or just regular anti personnel shrapnel type explosive. They absolutely are cluster bombs. Obama was trying to retire them in 06 (which Biden was in favor of) over his term. Trump got rid of that program and not Biden is utilizing them. Pretty ironic tbh. 

Well, I think it’s just what they have available in quantities needed. It’s really Ukraines call, since the main concern are civilian casualties post war, these casualties will be Ukrainians. So it’s Zelenskis difficult call to make.

 

This ammo should be good to clear russian trenches and minefield which is what’s needed apparently.
 

Not sure what the Russian missile crisis has to do with this. If we were uptight about that, we would have done something about the Chinese base that seems to be operating in Cuba.

Edited July 8, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Castanza]

36 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Well, I think it’s just what they have available in quantities needed. It’s really Ukraines call, since the main concern are civilian casualties post war, these casualties will be Ukrainians. So it’s Zelenskis difficult call to make.

 

This ammo should be good to clear russian trenches and minefield which is what’s needed apparently.
 

Not sure what the Russian missile crisis has to do with this. If we were uptight about that, we would have done something about the Chinese base that seems to be operating in Cuba.

Idk about that…it’s our weaponry and our money. If Ukraine asks for a nuke should we give it to them? Zelensky has no shortage of requests at others expense. 
 

Because 15 years from now when some farmer or kids gets their leg blown off while plowing a field they aren’t going to say “Damn that Zelensky!”….no they’re going to look at the shell shrapnel and see printed in the side U.S.A.

 

 Escalating with a weapons system that was in the process of being phased out because of the lasting devastation it leaves the local populace with is a precursor to other weapon system escalations. Ukraine is already going to have a hard time dealing with all the land mines. Throw in some cluster munitions and you have billion and billion and billions of dollars sunk in cleanup efforts before the war is even close to being over. 
 

Realistically what’s next? What do we give them next and where does it end? How long till we put boots on the ground ourselves as we realize this war is going to last for a long time? 
 

The move seems a bit shortsighted to me. 

[ValueArb]

6 minutes ago, Castanza said:

Idk about that…it’s our weaponry and our money. If Ukraine asks for a nuke should we give it to them? Zelensky has no shortage of requests at others expense. 
 

Because 15 years from now when some farmer or kids gets their leg blown off while plowing a field they aren’t going to say “Damn that Zelensky!”….no they’re going to look at the shell shrapnel and see printed in the side U.S.A.

 

 Escalating with a weapons system that was in the process of being phased out because of the lasting devastation it leaves the local populace with is a precursor to other weapon system escalations. Ukraine is already going to have a hard time dealing with all the land mines. Throw in some cluster munitions and you have billion and billion and billions of dollars sunk in cleanup efforts before the war is even close to being over. 
 

Realistically what’s next? What do we give them next and where does it end? How long till we put boots on the ground ourselves as we realize this war is going to last for a long time? 
 

The move seems a bit shortsighted to me. 

modern cluster munitions are much better at self disabling. There will be far more Ukrainians injured/killed post war by mines than cluster munitions. And when Ukrainians find a US origin on the cluster bomblet that hurt them, they will think those are the people who helped us protect our freedoms from rapists and murderers.

 

Its short-sighted to think that the Ukrainians should be handcuffed so the war can last longer and they can shed more blood, to avoid giving them cluster munitions or long range strike weapons.

[Spekulatius]

It it not an escalation since the Russian side has been using them from day one directly against civilians in some cases.

 

Zelensky has to decide the risk/ reward of using them, after all they are going to be used in his country. I do agree the mines are a much bigger problem.

Edited July 8, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Castanza]

1 hour ago, ValueArb said:

modern cluster munitions are much better at self disabling. There will be far more Ukrainians injured/killed post war by mines than cluster munitions. And when Ukrainians find a US origin on the cluster bomblet that hurt them, they will think those are the people who helped us protect our freedoms from rapists and murderers.

 

Its short-sighted to think that the Ukrainians should be handcuffed so the war can last longer and they can shed more blood, to avoid giving them cluster munitions or long range strike weapons.

Just like the Afghans, Iraqis, Vietnamese, huh? You make war out to be black and white. Nothing about war is ever black and white. Including the powers at play. 
 

Handcuffed? That’s putting the cart before the horse with a deep and long history of how we got here. 
 

War can last longer? There is a sure solution out of this war. It’s called a peace deal, negotiations, etc. There is an in unbearable amount of times throughout history where peace deals could have been struck, but short sighted bureaucrats with little skin in the game decide otherwise. This war is following almost to a T the same playbook we used back in the 70’s when we got the Soviet Union to invade Afghanistan. If Berlinsky were still alive I’m sure he would be licking his chops at this proxy war and the ability to cripple another nation at the expense of others citizens. 
 

And I am not saying the NATO expansion was the only driver of this war. Putin and Russian leadership also had their motives, but it damn sure was a pillar of what we see. 
 

—————————-

 

At the end of the day there is a HELL OF A LOT of people who love to pound the table on war that have absolutely ZERO skin in the game. There is no shortage of boogiemen in the world to justify war with someone. 

[ValueArb]

1 hour ago, Castanza said:

Just like the Afghans, Iraqis, Vietnamese, huh? You make war out to be black and white. Nothing about war is ever black and white. Including the powers at play. 
 

Handcuffed? That’s putting the cart before the horse with a deep and long history of how we got here. 
 

War can last longer? There is a sure solution out of this war. It’s called a peace deal, negotiations, etc. There is an in unbearable amount of times throughout history where peace deals could have been struck, but short sighted bureaucrats with little skin in the game decide otherwise. This war is following almost to a T the same playbook we used back in the 70’s when we got the Soviet Union to invade Afghanistan. If Berlinsky were still alive I’m sure he would be licking his chops at this proxy war and the ability to cripple another nation at the expense of others citizens. 
 

And I am not saying the NATO expansion was the only driver of this war. Putin and Russian leadership also had their motives, but it damn sure was a pillar of what we see. 
 

—————————-

 

At the end of the day there is a HELL OF A LOT of people who love to pound the table on war that have absolutely ZERO skin in the game. There is no shortage of boogiemen in the world to justify war with someone. 

 

The Ukrainians have ALL of their skin in the game and they want cluster munitions.

 

And we didn't have anything to do with the start of this war. Putin didn't invade because of the expansion of NATO, he did it because he wanted to recreate something like the USSR to increase Russias power. Saying that a organization of mutual self defense is forcing an aggressive dictatorship to start a war is as silly as it is wrong.

 

Finally the war can only end with a peace agreement. But the only peace agreement that has been available is for Ukraine to either surrender its sovereignty and disappear within the Russian maw, or surrender a third of its territory so Russia has time to rebuild its forces to reinvade in five years and finish them off. 

 

If Russia quits, the war ends. If Ukraine quits  their children are kidnapped, their women are raped, their men are tortured and their lands are taken.

[Castanza]

24 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

Saying that a organization of mutual self defense is forcing an aggressive dictatorship to start a war is as silly as it is wrong.

Lol ok well most credible historians would disagree with that. This has been rehashed so many times it’s nauseating how blind some are to the reality of cause and effect. 
 

Cuban missile crisis ring a bell? Lucky we had Kennedy or we’d have 50m people dead….