Russia-Ukrainian War

[Xerxes]

Brauchitsch was fired and Hitler did assume personal command of the army, but he was not a theatre commander. His role was akin to General Marshall (chief of staff of U.S. army). 

 

Wehrmacht had no theatre commander on the eastern front controlling the army groups, before or after von Brauchitsch firing. It was all ran from the Wolf’ Lair in East Prussia with Hitler and his Yes-Men (Keitel and Jodl).
 

Unlike the First World War, where Hindenburg, Lunderndorff and Hoffman held away over the eastern front for a period, while Falkenhayn had the western front. 

Edited April 24, 2022 by Xerxes

[Spekulatius]

Ukraine war is not great for Russias weapon manufacturers:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-militarys-next-front-line-replacing-battlefield-equipment-destroyed-in-ukraine-11650879002?mod=hp_lead_pos9

[no_free_lunch]

Russia border city Bryansk has large fires at an oil and military facility.  Confirmed on both sides social media but still unofficially.  Some chatter from Ukrainian side that the attack was via drones.  It needed to be done, Ukraine cannot just have it's infrastructure obliterated without response.

[Xerxes]

2 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

Russia border city Bryansk has large fires at an oil and military facility.  Confirmed on both sides social media but still unofficially.  Some chatter from Ukrainian side that the attack was via drones.  It needed to be done, Ukraine cannot just have it's infrastructure obliterated without response.

Totally agreed fair is fair. 
Ukraine (at this point) it should feel comfortable to test the water, and do what it can against Russia.  
 

That said, would we make the same comment if Iraq were to attack Diego Garcia using ballistic missile (if the range was there) in 2003-04 as retaliation or would we say :

 

“well that is NOT the same thing, how dare a third rate country assault a first rate country. They should just stand still while we destroy them. It is for their own good. The faster we destroy them, and de-bathify them, the better it is for Iraq”

[Xerxes]

Lavrov interview with the Indian channel. This is for an Indian audience consumption (not western). Shoring up support of a wavering partner.  
 

 

 

[Xerxes]

On 4/23/2022 at 12:33 AM, Benderok said:

spy chief  

It was a “oh shit, are we seriously doing this” moment. 

 

Putin is corrupt but in Russia only him (and his close buddies) are allowed corruption.

They spend tens of billions on their armed forces and intelligence for the past 10 years. That only means that there is an entire class of corrupt imperial mandarins and eunuchs taking a cut until there was nothing left for the actual modernization, betting that it will be status-quo between West and Putin. 

[james22]

It is easy to bemoan the "woke" degraded Western military, but at least it is fundamentally professional.

 

As Instapundit says: Russian procurement makes ours look like a model of thrift, honesty, and competitive efficiency.

 

https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=51256

[no_free_lunch]

8 hours ago, Xerxes said:

Totally agreed fair is fair. 
Ukraine (at this point) it should feel comfortable to test the water, and do what it can against Russia.  
 

That said, would we make the same comment if Iraq were to attack Diego Garcia using ballistic missile (if the range was there) in 2003-04 as retaliation or would we say :

 

“well that is NOT the same thing, how dare a third rate country assault a first rate country. They should just stand still while we destroy them. It is for their own good. The faster we destroy them, and de-bathify them, the better it is for Iraq”

 

I think Iraq did fire scuds at Israel in the first gulf war.   After the invasion ISIS was formed and eventually there were attacks on Europe.  All part of the nightmare but in this case the west will support them.  That's the problem with your comparison. Russia is not a superpower and Ukraine is not without allies.  Russia can't afford the war to begin with so everything we can do to make it more expensive is worthwhile. 

Edited April 26, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[Xerxes]

I am talking about the second gulf war. Not the first. Iraq was the aggressor in the first. Not the second.  
 

I am talking about a U.S. military based in an Indian Ocean (actually British) not the almighty Israel.  
 

ISIS came after the post-2006 insurgency totally irrelevant to 2003 at the time (it was more like a post-script to that sorry idiotic adventure) and definitely irrelevant to the first 1991 gulf war, which you took us.  

 

bottom line:  we as human beings will rally behind whatever cause we want to support and built narrative around it, ignore whatever we want to ignore and call it fair. 

Edited April 26, 2022 by Xerxes

[no_free_lunch]

I would just say Xerxes that I feel the west is the best.  We can delve into they if you want but it's just a fact imo. It's the legal and democratic systems that are in place are so superior.  I want to live and invest in the west and it's true for most people too.

 

Once I'm at that point and I see a country trying to join the west and asking for our support of course I will support them.  In particular when I see ethnic cleansing. I realize this happens elsewhere in the world but in those cases we are told to stay out and none of your business. Ok, fine we will stay out.  Ukraine wants our help , we aren't being labelled aggressors then we will help. 

 

What I was going for with my Scud and isis comments was we have seen attacks on the west.  You make it sound unprecedented but it's happened many times. 

[Spekulatius]

7 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

I would just say Xerxes that I feel the west is the best.  We can delve into they if you want but it's just a fact imo. It's the legal and democratic systems that are in place are so superior.  I want to live and invest in the west and it's true for most people too.

 

Once I'm at that point and I see a country trying to join the west and asking for our support of course I will support them.  In particular when I see ethnic cleansing. I realize this happens elsewhere in the world but in those cases we are told to stay out and none of your business. Ok, fine we will stay out.  Ukraine wants our help , we aren't being labelled aggressors then we will help. 

 

What I was going for with my Scud and isis comments was we have seen attacks on the west.  You make it sound unprecedented but it's happened many times. 

If you fight a war, the enemy will attack your with all means available to them, it's that simple. ISIS and  Iraq did so certainly.

 

As far as who is the best, the simplest test is where people want to live. Most will chose the west given a choice. 

Immigration patterns also make this clear - there are simply almost no people who would immigrate to Russia. On similar note, there are not many states that will ally with Russia, unless they are just as autocratic than they are.

 

Putin may complain about NATO expansion all he wants, but the fact is that that NATO has an open door policy fundamentally and nobody forces any country to join. Then Russian neighbor states are given the "choice" by Putin to either become a puppet state  or getting totally destroyed.

Edited April 27, 2022 by Spekulatius

[ValueArb]

I think this war has years left. I can only see three ways out

 

1) Ukraine capitulates to a negotiated settlement giving up all of the Donbas and the southern Ukraine landbridge. Putin declares victory and withdraws.

 

2) Putin is forced to withdraw because of mass Russian demonstrations. This is so far away it seems like a fairy tale. Putin has deliberately resisted conscripting from "European" Russia, ie Moscow and its areas to prevent generating unrest. Most of his forces are from the republics and far east. This is also why they are attempting to recruit in Syria. I don't think you see massive peace demonstrations or calls for Putins ouster until the Russian mothers in Moscow start losing a lot of their kids. 

 

3) Putin is overthrown, assassinated or dies of whatever he's ailing of. This is probably a lot more likely than mass demonstrations, but still unlikely in the short turn. There has to be a lot of infighting going on at the highest levels of his regime, and the military might not wait to get purged. But without clear popular support the risk is too high.

 

#1 may happen because Zelensky has been so open to negotiating but I doubt he's willing to give up so much after all their sacrifices. I think he and the Ukrainians will be happy to wage years of bloody war and insurgency until they get back most of the Donbas and any southern territory that's been lost outside of Crimea.

[Saluki]

Ironically, the Russian military's equipment doesn't appear to be as modern and upgraded as Putin believed.  I say ironically, because when he was in the KGB in St Petersburg, he was accused of syphoning off funds that were allocated to modernizing military equipment and using it to enlarge his bank account. It's not inconceivable that his successors did the same thing figuring that no one would ever find out, because the only way people would know if these tanks were being maintained is if you tried to use them in an actual war. It reminds me of the old commercial where the dad finds the drug paraphernalia and asks where he learned to do drugs.  "From you!  I learned it from watching you!"   

[james22]

One explanation for the "attacks" inside Russia:

 

Imagine that you are a colonel that has been selling military supplies on the black market.
Imagine that you are a politician that pocketed graft instead of actually buying supplies for the military.

Imagine that you know that someone is going to come looking for those supplied now that a war is on.

Oops….I’m sorry, comrade…all the evide…I mean the supplies burned up.

 

https://instapundit.com/517609/

 

Heh.

[no_free_lunch]

Any thoughts on the situation in Transistria?  I have a theory that the general mobilization is a trial balloon before application in Russia. It may also strengthen the argument that ethnic Russians are under attack. It seems too small and insignificant to play any meaningful role in the actual fighting. 

 

In Ukraine it seems they are holding up quite well. I was very concerned at the beginning of the conflict when Kiev was surrounded. Somewhat concerned a week ago when they started massing to attack in the east.  They are gaining some territory but this is hardly the tactics that will result in destruction of the Ukrainian army. I am no expert but it seems more a war of attrition now.  While Russia has a much larger population I don't see their people bring willing to sacrifice on the scale needed. Meanwhile there are people even in Canada on waiting lists to join the UA, crazy as that sounds. Perhaps that is where the general mobilization in RU may come in. 

 

Barring some significant change in the Russian playbook I see Ukraine not only holding them off but even going to offensive over the next few months. The amount of arms flowing in from NATO is fairly epic and quality cannot be understated.

Edited April 30, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[Xerxes]

The noises around Moldova I think are just Moscow way to distract some Ukrainian resources away from Donbas. If Russian army’ battalion tactical groups were healthy, they would want as much Ukrainian forces in its jaws as it closes. I guess that is not the case with the Russian BTGs being mauled, depleted and re-grouped. 
 

Unrelated, May Day would be interesting. 

[shru]

I think, things are just going to get rough. If one sees history then one shall see that Russia always starts the war at bad footing but gets efficient as war moves further. 

[no_free_lunch]

On 4/30/2022 at 11:15 PM, shru said:

I think, things are just going to get rough. If one sees history then one shall see that Russia always starts the war at bad footing but gets efficient as war moves further. 

I don't think that is necessarily true that Russia improved over time. In WW1 they just kept feeding troops into the grinder. As I understand it was a major reason for the revolution.  Afghanistan , maybe not a good comparison as it was guerilla warfare but that didn't end well either.  In WW2 yes, they did improve significantly during the war but also took enormous losses. 

 

I don't doubt it's going to get worse, from UA perspective. Russia is not winning and they will start to lose if they don't adapt.  I don't see them getting efficient though, I think they may just raise troop levels but we will see. Also keep in mind UA is far from perfect and will continue to evolve as well. 

Edited May 2, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[Gregmal]

So the ghost of Ukraine story was a complete HOAX. Wonder why Twitter didnt ban it or individuals posting it....

 

Anyhow, like I said, anyone thinking they are getting ANYTHING resembling an accurate portrayal of the whole story is delusional. Thankfully this situation isnt really relevant to the markets anymore. It never should have been. 

[Spekulatius]

So sad if true, should sent some sunflowers to Putin ASAP:

https://nypost.com/2022/05/02/vladimir-putin-to-undergo-cancer-surgery-transfer-power/

 

Edited May 2, 2022 by Spekulatius

[no_free_lunch]

Gregmal, what you are saying around info gaps and propaganda would apply during the second world war as well.

 

There are definitely things we know about the war. You just have to wait for confirmation from both sources.  The Moskva for instance definitely sank, both sides confirm it. Just a question of what caused it.

 

It's a bit much to point to something you saw on twitter and extrapolate to everything we read is fake!

Edited May 3, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[Gregmal]

All one needs to know is that repeatedly politicians play games for their own benefit and regular, normal people bear the consequences. It’s true in Ukraine, Russia, US, Africa…basically everywhere.

 

Ukraine may be the victim, although again I’d say it’s the people of both Ukraine and Russia who are suffering, the militants are getting what they signed up for, and the politicians are playing high level Xbox. But now we ve repeatedly seen stories attempting to shape narrative and sentiment around Ukraine; where remember the “go fuck yourself Russia” heros that died? Only to have actually been captured, and then miraculously, RETURNED, UNHARMED? One must ask why?

[rkbabang]

On 4/25/2022 at 9:41 PM, Xerxes said:

bottom line:  we as human beings will rally behind whatever cause we want to support and built narrative around it, ignore whatever we want to ignore and call it fair. 

+1  Government is a delusion. It is the most dangerous of the worlds religions.

 

14 hours ago, Gregmal said:

All one needs to know is that repeatedly politicians play games for their own benefit and regular, normal people bear the consequences. It’s true in Ukraine, Russia, US, Africa…basically everywhere.

+1

 

War is a racket, everywhere and every time.  And the first casualty is always the truth.  If you have governments, I mean if you allow them to exist at all, you will have lies, death and destruction. You will have many human casualties.  When civilization wises up to that fact of life things may someday change, until then, since power corrupts war and mass death will be a fact of life.

 

[Xerxes]

"War is a racket" book was actually on my to read list since 2010. Sadly, I have not read it yet.

 

War Is A Racket: Original Edition : Butler, Smedley D: Books - Amazon 

[no_free_lunch]

I agree with the basic premise of what is being said regarding war.  However our societies can only exist if we can defend ourselves. I mean that was kind of the lesson drawn from the world wars.  Surely there is a difference between defense and offense.  It's clearly wrong to shoot someone but if someone breaks into your house, armed and there are no police different circumstance entirely. Aren't we, or at least Europe closer to the latter?

 

The profiteering from war is a very serious and corruptive issue but it's also been around since the 40s, probably longer. 

Edited May 3, 2022 by no_free_lunch