Sweet Posted March 15 Posted March 15 16 hours ago, cubsfan said: Eventually, this probably needs to end as a stalemate, with a new DMZ, partitioning Ukraine. For Putin to save face and declare victory to the Russian people - he keeps Donbas, and of course, Crimea, and no NATO membership. Zelensky says he saved the rest of Ukraine, which he did. I can't see anything other than a negotiated settlement. Europe doesn't want to throw troops at this. Ukraine doesn't have the troops. Russia does. Europe and the Ukrainian will have enough commitment staffing a fortified border. Ukraine can not sustain these type of losses. No one completely happy, but each can declare victory. What is to stop Putin just having another go in a few years? Ukraine would need security guarantees, which may include NATO membership for this to be ensured to end in a stalemate.
cubsfan Posted March 15 Posted March 15 ^^^ Totally understand your point. He can't be trusted. But he's going to need a "victory" to stop the carnage. The border is going to need to be fortified like N. & S. Korea. Assisted in some way by Europe, something short of NATO membership - which it seems was Putin's original goal to stop. Unless Europe wants to be involved right now - I see no path for Ukraine to wage war when they simply do not have the manpower for a multi-year conflict.
Xerxes Posted March 15 Posted March 15 1 hour ago, Sweet said: What is to stop Putin just having another go in a few years? Ukraine would need security guarantees, which may include NATO membership for this to be ensured to end in a stalemate. that is somewhat true. For NATO inclusion to be effective, it needs to be based on agreed by both sides border. And not pre-2014 border. Since one cannot expand NATO membership to Ukraine with one fifth of the country under occupation. That would automatically create a formal state of war between Russia and NATO. Russia needs to accept (wether it likes or not) that as price to formally keep the territories in Eastern Ukraine there needs to be a some sort of NATO membership or very explicit security guarantees for the now shrunken Ukraine. Otherwise no one would believe it can hold.
formthirteen Posted March 15 Posted March 15 (edited) Unrelated perhaps, but here are some stocks that have mooned since the start of the war: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RHM.DE https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SAAB-B.ST https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LDO.MI https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KOG.OL The war might be a good thing for the US defense industry, but the stocks haven't moved much. Germany is now officially allowed to start producing war machines again. Previously, they were demilitarized by NATO (USA), depending on your viewpoint. Edited March 15 by formthirteen
formthirteen Posted March 15 Posted March 15 Quote INTERNATIONAL DEFENCE COMPANIES Edition 2024 Maintaining our competitiveness and technological lead is, more than ever, a major challenge for France. This new 2024 edition of the «International Defence Companies» notebook is published in light of these issues. This publication provides key data from publicly available sources, for a selection of international companies chosen each year according to their main activities in the defence sector. https://www.defense.gouv.fr/sites/default/files/dga/International Defence Companies notebook 2024 edition.pdf
Xerxes Posted March 15 Posted March 15 3 hours ago, formthirteen said: Unrelated perhaps, but here are some stocks that have mooned since the start of the war: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RHM.DE https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SAAB-B.ST https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LDO.MI https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KOG.OL The war might be a good thing for the US defense industry, but the stocks haven't moved much. Germany is now officially allowed to start producing war machines again. Previously, they were demilitarized by NATO (USA), depending on your viewpoint. And most important: BAE Aerospace.
formthirteen Posted March 23 Posted March 23 (edited) Kamil Galeev has some interesting threads that does a good job of explaining Russia to foreignerns. Here's a thread of how Putin came to power: Yesterday, it seems there were more news for conspiracy theorists Putin: Carl Bildt is not some conspiracy theorist, he's the Co-Chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations think-thank. Quote US intelligence told American news agencies that there’s “no reason to doubt” the IS claims of responsibility. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/23/theres-little-reason-to-doubt-attack-on-moscow-venue-was-by-islamic-state Edited March 23 by formthirteen
Luke Posted April 8 Posted April 8 Ukraine ‘will lose the war’ if US fails to approve aid, says Zelensky https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/08/europe/ukraine-lose-war-us-congress-zelensky-intl/index.html Republicans blocking the funding...
Sweet Posted April 8 Posted April 8 Republicans blocking funding unless border issue dealt with. But Biden also has the power to provide aid to Ukraine as President and he isn’t doing it.
cubsfan Posted April 8 Posted April 8 32 minutes ago, Sweet said: Republicans blocking funding unless border issue dealt with. A much more accurate depiction. And totally justified, as well as backed by a large majority of the USA.
Sweet Posted April 9 Posted April 9 (edited) 8 hours ago, cubsfan said: A much more accurate depiction. And totally justified, as well as backed by a large majority of the USA. I was of the same opinion originally, the optics of this looks like Biden cares more about the national security of Ukraine than the US. I’ve changed my mind though, the issue in Ukraine is too important. Republicans should fund Ukraine and then make the border an election winning issue. It’s also clear Trump don’t want a deal on the border going into the Nov election. Edited April 9 by Sweet
Gamecock-YT Posted April 9 Posted April 9 (edited) If the repubs were smart they'd approve the funding but give it all in money to buy drones so the Ukrainians keep going after refineries. alas.....you figure they're so great at finding wedge issues to get their base to the polls that $4.00+ gas would be a slam dunk. Then again it is the repubs we're talking about. Maybe if a ruskie burns a trump bible while giving an abortion to an illegal immigrant. Edited April 9 by Gamecock-YT
cubsfan Posted April 9 Posted April 9 (edited) 5 hours ago, Sweet said: Republicans should fund Ukraine and then make the border an election winning issue. It’s also clear Trump don’t want a deal on the border going into the Nov election. Respectfully, I think you need to dig a little deeper into this issue. Republicans wanted a REAL deal to seal the border - not a PHONY deal like the one on the table. This past "deal" still destroys the border, allowing 5000+ immigrants per day to enter, instead of customary 10,000+ per day. That deal was a smoke screen that accomplished nothing. But beautifully, the phony "bi-partisan security bill" failed and now Republicans are to blame. So, yeah, it will be used as a huge issue in November - since it's the number one issue in the country right now. The open southern border will ruin America for generations to come - so like Biden's foreign policy, which is also in total ruins - both will have to be settled in the coming election. Edited April 9 by cubsfan
Sweet Posted April 9 Posted April 9 18 minutes ago, cubsfan said: Respectfully, I think you need to dig a little deeper into this issue. Republicans wanted a REAL deal to seal the border - not a PHONY deal like the one on the table. This past "deal" still destroys the border, allowing 5000+ immigrants per day to enter, instead of customary 10,000+ per day. That deal was a smoke screen that accomplished nothing. But beautifully, the phony "bi-partisan security bill" failed and now Republicans are to blame. So, yeah, it will be used as a huge issue in November - since it's the number one issue in the country right now. The open southern border will ruin America for generations to come - so like Biden's foreign policy, which is also in total ruins - both will have to be settled in the coming election. I know cubs, I read parts of the deal and the criticism of it, and I agree it’s BS. What I’m saying is that even if the perfect deal was on the table there is no incentive for Republicans to take it before the Nov election.
cubsfan Posted April 9 Posted April 9 ^^^^ Then you understand the tradeoff - although you might not agree. Americans want a sealed border - period - and in exchange - Ukraine gets more assistance. Perfectly reasonable and settled with political tradeoffs as any democracy would. Both sides win. This past proposal was never a serious attempt to seal the border. It turns out Americans don't like being lab rats for the Left's open border experiment. Now that they accomplished their goal of 10M+ new residents - the citizens have had enough of the destruction.
Sweet Posted April 9 Posted April 9 47 minutes ago, cubsfan said: ^^^^ Then you understand the tradeoff - although you might not agree. Americans want a sealed border - period - and in exchange - Ukraine gets more assistance. Perfectly reasonable and settled with political tradeoffs as any democracy would. Both sides win. This past proposal was never a serious attempt to seal the border. It turns out Americans don't like being lab rats for the Left's open border experiment. Now that they accomplished their goal of 10M+ new residents - the citizens have had enough of the destruction. I think you misunderstand what I’m saying. I’m saying it’s not in Trump / Republicans interest to have a deal on the border before the election because it would hurt their election chances. I disagree that the funding for Ukraine has to be connected to the border.
cubsfan Posted April 9 Posted April 9 ^^ No I get it. The issue helps with the election for sure. But most Americans have wanted a serious deal long ago , but it’s seriously come to a head in the last year - even with Democratic big city mayors. What you’re seeing now is the only issue the Democrats can run on “It’s your fault “ Ridiculous, but oh so predictable.
cubsfan Posted April 9 Posted April 9 The Ukraine saga has had huge backing from America at large, meaning the citizens. But the line has been drawn at sending US troops, as well as protecting another nation’s border while we ignore our own. Personally, I agree with this position.
John Hjorth Posted April 9 Posted April 9 (edited) I stumbled on this post [in Danish] from the Danish LinkedIn member Poul Skadhede on this very day today : It translates to English like this : I think it says a lot about the local sentiment here in Denmark by now. April 9th is the date in 1940 where Germany occupied Denmark as an integrated part of Germanys occupation of Norway. - - - o 0 o - - - Mr. Skadhede is a consultant by profession and serves as professional board member. He is also as the largest shareholder involved in a group delivering consultancy and naval design services to shipyards and shipowners and -operators, including navies. [Originally formed as a spin off of the design department from now closed Odense Steel Shipyard A/S, formerly owned by A.P. Moeller A/S.] That group, called Odense Maritime Technology A/S, was responible for the design of the AOPS Actic Patrol Ships [ Harry DeWolf class offshore patrol vessel ] built at Halifax Shipyard, Halifax, ,Nova Scotia to the Royal Canadian Navy. So Mr. Skadhede is personally biased. But I personally think his views have merit. Edited April 9 by John Hjorth
Dinar Posted April 9 Posted April 9 I personally think that Ukraine should do the following: a) Raise cash via asset sales, both companies and real estate. I would buy an apartment in the heart of Kiev tomorrow if the price was right and it was available for sale. b) Raise cash via selling bonds to foreigners. There is a large Ukrainian diaspora that would buy bonds to support Ukraine, and I would buy it as well (most relatives/ancestors from Ukraine). Best case scenario - I get repaid, worst case scenario - I helped Ukraine in its hour of need and would get a tax write-off if the bond is defaulted on. c) Use the raised cash to recruit mercenaries & buy arms, and then having credibility negotiate peace.
ValueArb Posted April 10 Posted April 10 On 4/9/2024 at 6:14 AM, cubsfan said: ^^^^ Then you understand the tradeoff - although you might not agree. Americans want a sealed border - period - and in exchange - Ukraine gets more assistance. Perfectly reasonable and settled with political tradeoffs as any democracy would. Both sides win. This past proposal was never a serious attempt to seal the border. It turns out Americans don't like being lab rats for the Left's open border experiment. Now that they accomplished their goal of 10M+ new residents - the citizens have had enough of the destruction. I don't want a sealed border. I want an immigration policy that helps our sagging birth rates by allowing in a few million hard working and talented new citizen candidates every year, and provides them with legal visas to wipe out the black markets that are the cause of so much crime and misery. I've had enough of the disaster caused by border militarization. When I was a boy migrant workers kept their families in their mexican villages and only spent half the year in the US to bring that money back home and live well. Most never wanted to uproot their families, but we made transiting the border far more difficult so migrant workers started bringing their families in to the US to move here permanently. Just give migrants work visas every year as long as they stay out of trouble, cooperate with US authorities, and return home for at least 6 months a year and problem solved.
John Hjorth Posted April 10 Posted April 10 Please go somewhere else for discission of US sealed border.
Sweet Posted April 10 Posted April 10 4 hours ago, John Hjorth said: Please go somewhere else for discission of US sealed border. It’s been connected to the funding of Ukraine John.
cubsfan Posted April 10 Posted April 10 57 minutes ago, Sweet said: It’s been connected to the funding of Ukraine John. It's definitely THE major impediment to funding the war from the US perspective.
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