Russia-Ukrainian War

[Dinar]

3 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

I think it's probably closer to 100k.  If you assume 3 wounded for every dead that's still around 400k or 1 percent of the entire pre war population.   They would have collapsed with the larger number. 

 

Anyways the number doesn't matter, what matters is Ukraine still would rather fight than be enslaved. 

 

I know this has gotten old and repetitive but that is part of it. This is an endurance event.  

The sad part, aside obviously from all death and destruction, is that Russia has a lot more ability to endure than Ukraine.  

[Xerxes]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/us/politics/ukraine-russia-war-casualties.html

[Pelagic]

Something that should be pointed out with regard to Ukrainian military casualties is that the VAST majority of them happened last summer ('22) when Russia enjoyed a massive artillery advantage and was on the offensive in Eastern Ukraine. Russia was expending as many as 60k shells per day with 30k daily being average in May/June/July. Western donations of GMLRS and the subsequent targeting of Russian ammunition stockpiles put a stop to that volume of artillery use and brought shell expenditures down toward the level of around 10k per day or less. This year Ukraine has focused on employing what precision weapons it has to target Russian artillery and air defense assets so I'd expect Russian shell expenditures daily to be even lower. Grad (and TOS-1) salvos were a staple of the Russian offensive last year and they've been almost non-existent on the battlefield the last few months.

 

100k Ukrainian combat deaths seems to be in the ball park of correct, 500k is absurd and the people repeating it are simply spreading Russian disinformation. Or they're simply confusing casualties with deaths. It's worth stating the obvious that to get to their claim of 500k combat deaths you'd likely see 2-3 million combat related casualties which clearly isn't the case.

[cubsfan]

6 minutes ago, Pelagic said:

Something that should be pointed out with regard to Ukrainian military casualties is that the VAST majority of them happened last summer ('22) when Russia enjoyed a massive artillery advantage and was on the offensive in Eastern Ukraine. Russia was expending as many as 60k shells per day with 30k daily being average in May/June/July. Western donations of GMLRS and the subsequent targeting of Russian ammunition stockpiles put a stop to that volume of artillery use and brought shell expenditures down toward the level of around 10k per day or less. This year Ukraine has focused on employing what precision weapons it has to target Russian artillery and air defense assets so I'd expect Russian shell expenditures daily to be even lower. Grad (and TOS-1) salvos were a staple of the Russian offensive last year and they've been almost non-existent on the battlefield the last few months.

 

100k Ukrainian combat deaths seems to be in the ball park of correct, 500k is absurd and the people repeating it are simply spreading Russian disinformation. Or they're simply confusing casualties with deaths. It's worth stating the obvious that to get to their claim of 500k combat deaths you'd likely see 2-3 million combat related casualties which clearly isn't the case.

So basically, to net it out: no one knows how many killed. Which is what I am saying.

 

What we do know is that everyone and their brother in the West (fueled by government spokesmen & media) claimed the spring offensive would destroy Russia, which clearly was bullsit.

[Pelagic]

42 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

So basically, to net it out: no one knows how many killed. Which is what I am saying.

 

What we do know is that everyone and their brother in the West (fueled by government spokesmen & media) claimed the spring offensive would destroy Russia, which clearly was bullsit.

 

True casualty numbers are always going to be kept close to the vest. My point is simply Ukrainian casualties this year are likely a lot lower than last, despite being on the offensive for the last few months. 

 

I don't think any serious analysts expected Ukraine to roll up the 500 mile front across Southern and Eastern Ukraine in one offensive. The goal for this offensive was fairly clear in that they wanted to sever the land bridge between Rostov on Don and Russian forces in Crimea. Sever the land bridge, knock out the Kerch straight bridge, and starve out Russian forces in Crimea and Southern Ukraine west of the divide, that's their broad strategy and has been since talks of a counter-offensive started. There were even quite a few good posts on it in this thread before the offensive started. If somebody was expecting Ukraine to launch a 2023 version of Operation Barbarossa and push the Russians back to Moscow I don't know what to say.

[no_free_lunch]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

So basically, to net it out: no one knows how many killed. Which is what I am saying.

 

What we do know is that everyone and their brother in the West (fueled by government spokesmen & media) claimed the spring offensive would destroy Russia, which clearly was bullsit.

Show me some reputable sources saying what you just said.  Truth is Republicans are making up lies. You know there's an actual war going on, not the time for your political nonsense. 

[cubsfan]

2 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

Show me some reputable sources saying what you just said.  Truth is Republicans are making up lies. You know there's an actual war going on, not the time for your political nonsense. 

 

Thanks for your idiotic response. Didn't mean to hurt your feelings.

 

Sure, the US government & US media have not made a habit of lying to us on a number of important issues, including the Ukraine war..

 

Sure thing.

[no_free_lunch]

Are you going to show your sources?  You made a claim., back it up or withdraw it.  

[cubsfan]

12 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

Are you going to show your sources?  You made a claim., back it up or withdraw it.  

 

I said I didn't know - and neither do you. If you want to believe the numbers the US and Ukrainian government gives you - have at it - I really don't give a shit.

 

The war is not exactly going as claimed before the spring offensive was launched.

[UK]

49 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

I said I didn't know - and neither do you. If you want to believe the numbers the US and Ukrainian government gives you - have at it - I really don't give a shit.

 

The war is not exactly going as claimed before the spring offensive was launched.

 

Hey, it sure is not going as claimed in the very begining (or almost every day still) by another side either? If one does not consider Ukraine holding (and retaking so much territory) so well against, supposedly second major military force on earth, a success, than I do not know what success is. And they achieved this even without enought equipment, aviation etc to begin with. 

[cubsfan]

It’s been very successful for Ukraine.

Displacing Russia is proving to be very costly. According to the DC stalwarts like Max Boot and Bill Krystal back in March, you’d have thought Russia was doomed.

 

The more important point I was trying to get at - what’s the level of casualties the Ukraine can sustain before Europe needs to provide forces? 

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

It’s been very successful for Ukraine.

Displacing Russia is proving to be very costly. According to the DC stalwarts like Max Boot and Bill Krystal back in March, you’d have thought Russia was doomed.

 

The more important point I was trying to get at - what’s the level of casualties the Ukraine can sustain before Europe needs to provide forces? 

The average age of Ukrainians solders in the front line is over 40.  So far the youth haven’t been mobilised, Zelenskyy wants to try and spare many as many of he can from the frontline.  Ukraine would be wise to not allow Russia any rest this Winter.  With the benefit of hindsight the US was right, they should have kept pushing last year.

[Xerxes]

15 minutes ago, Sweet said:

The average age of Ukrainians solders in the front line is over 40.  So far the youth haven’t been mobilised, Zelenskyy wants to try and spare many as many of he can from the frontline.  Ukraine would be wise to not allow Russia any rest this Winter.  With the benefit of hindsight the US was right, they should have kept pushing last year.

Ukraine own mistakes.

 
Over obsession with Bakhmut to “bleed them white”. Koffman said it at one point: it is not about kill ratios, rather the quality of those ratio and replacement cycle. 

[cubsfan]

34 minutes ago, Sweet said:

The average age of Ukrainians solders in the front line is over 40.  So far the youth haven’t been mobilised, Zelenskyy wants to try and spare many as many of he can from the frontline.  Ukraine would be wise to not allow Russia any rest this Winter.  With the benefit of hindsight the US was right, they should have kept pushing last year.

Over 40? That’s shocking. Brave citizens.

[ValueArb]

On 10/9/2023 at 8:23 AM, cubsfan said:

So basically, to net it out: no one knows how many killed. Which is what I am saying.

 

What we do know is that everyone and their brother in the West (fueled by government spokesmen & media) claimed the spring offensive would destroy Russia, which clearly was bullsit.

 

Who said the spring offensive would destroy Russia? I always thought the western military leadership has been pretty conservative on setting expectations. 

[ValueArb]

On 10/9/2023 at 8:08 AM, Pelagic said:

Something that should be pointed out with regard to Ukrainian military casualties is that the VAST majority of them happened last summer ('22) when Russia enjoyed a massive artillery advantage and was on the offensive in Eastern Ukraine. Russia was expending as many as 60k shells per day with 30k daily being average in May/June/July. Western donations of GMLRS and the subsequent targeting of Russian ammunition stockpiles put a stop to that volume of artillery use and brought shell expenditures down toward the level of around 10k per day or less. This year Ukraine has focused on employing what precision weapons it has to target Russian artillery and air defense assets so I'd expect Russian shell expenditures daily to be even lower. Grad (and TOS-1) salvos were a staple of the Russian offensive last year and they've been almost non-existent on the battlefield the last few months.

 

100k Ukrainian combat deaths seems to be in the ball park of correct, 500k is absurd and the people repeating it are simply spreading Russian disinformation. Or they're simply confusing casualties with deaths. It's worth stating the obvious that to get to their claim of 500k combat deaths you'd likely see 2-3 million combat related casualties which clearly isn't the case.

 

France's population in 2014 was slightly smaller than Ukraines in 2022. In the first month of battle (August 6 - September 5) they took about 330,000 casualties in the Battle of the Frontiers.  Then they took another 250,000 casualties in the 7 day battle of the Marne (September 5 - 12). They ended up with about 300,000 dead in the first 5 months of the war, and 650,000 dead in first year and a half, so maybe 2M casualties?

 

It just shows how much a people will sacrifice to defend their country when they are truly motivated.

[formthirteen]

Five-star armchair and LinkedIn generalissimo Ray Dalio thinks things might escalate, or not (50%-50% chance):

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/another-step-toward-international-war-ray-dalio/

 

Quote

In my opinion, this war has a high risk of leading to several other conflicts of different types in a number of places, and it is likely to have harmful effects that will extend beyond those in Israel and Gaza. Primarily for those reasons, it appears to me that the odds of transitioning from the contained conflicts to a more uncontained hot world war that includes the major powers have risen from about 35% to about 50% over the last two years since I wrote my book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order.

 

Quote

 

In other words, we should recognize that these two hot wars (the Israel-Hamas war and the Russia-Ukraine war) are not just between the parties directly involved in them—these wars are part of the bigger great power conflicts to shape the new world order—and they will have big effects on the countries who are allies and enemies of the four sides in these two seemingly irreconcilable wars. These two wars will cost the allies of these countries a lot. For example, the US is now fighting proxy wars in Europe and the Middle East while preparing for war in East Asia. As these wars spread, they will cost more. 

Fortunately, the progression toward a world war between the biggest powers (the US and China) has not yet crossed the irreversible line from being containable (which it is now) to becoming a brutal war between the biggest powers and their allies. If these major powers do have direct fighting with each other, in which one side kills a significant number of people on the other side, we will see the transition from contained pre-hot-war conflicts to a brutal World War III.

 

 

Quote

While I assume that we all wish that war can be contained or reversed, history has repeatedly shown that once the line is crossed into hot wars, the opposite tends to be true—i.e., rather than reason and compromise increasing, they stop so that one has to pick a side and fight for it or step away from the fight. It is increasingly likely that you will have to make that choice. This will also affect where people want to live.

 

 

Edited October 13, 2023 by formthirteen

[John Hjorth]

 KALs cartoon this week [on second thoghts he may be missing inflation and interest rates? [-Perhaps that no-name monster just below 'Pandemics' may be one of them? ]

 

[UK]

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/10/14/now-russia-is-fighting-to-gain-territory-in-the-east-of-ukraine

 

[ValueArb]

On 10/13/2023 at 12:09 PM, formthirteen said:

Five-star armchair and LinkedIn generalissimo Ray Dalio thinks things might escalate, or not (50%-50% chance):

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/another-step-toward-international-war-ray-dalio/

 

 

 

 

 

 

If we didn't get dragged into the Yom Kippur war in 1973 when Isreal was attacked by Egypt, Syria, Jordan. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Libya, and Kuwait (with the aid of Tunisia, Morocco, Cuba & North Korea), I find it hard to imagine that we'll get dragged into their war with tiny Hamas, even if Hezbollah steps in. 

[ValueArb]

On 10/9/2023 at 8:08 AM, Pelagic said:

Something that should be pointed out with regard to Ukrainian military casualties is that the VAST majority of them happened last summer ('22) when Russia enjoyed a massive artillery advantage and was on the offensive in Eastern Ukraine. Russia was expending as many as 60k shells per day with 30k daily being average in May/June/July. Western donations of GMLRS and the subsequent targeting of Russian ammunition stockpiles put a stop to that volume of artillery use and brought shell expenditures down toward the level of around 10k per day or less. This year Ukraine has focused on employing what precision weapons it has to target Russian artillery and air defense assets so I'd expect Russian shell expenditures daily to be even lower. Grad (and TOS-1) salvos were a staple of the Russian offensive last year and they've been almost non-existent on the battlefield the last few months.

 

100k Ukrainian combat deaths seems to be in the ball park of correct, 500k is absurd and the people repeating it are simply spreading Russian disinformation. Or they're simply confusing casualties with deaths. It's worth stating the obvious that to get to their claim of 500k combat deaths you'd likely see 2-3 million combat related casualties which clearly isn't the case.

 

Something that was pointed out to me elsewhere that makes a lot of sense is that if Ukraine has taken 500,000 KIA, since Russia has been on the offensive for the vast majority of the war their losses should be significantly higher, in the 1M to 2M KIA range. That seems equally absurd.

[Xerxes]

Ignore Dalio

 

anybody who write a book called “Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order” is worth ignoring. 
 

I cannot stand people putting frameworks, and/or oversimplify geopolitical events into good/bad guys. 
 

there is no “nutshelling” when discussing these matters. For what it is worth 

[Castanza]

Andddd just like that the war in Ukraine is over to 90% of the people Ukrainian flag flying people here in the States! More social clout now available surrounding Israel and Palestinian….

 

[John Hjorth]

This phenomen is not only observable in the United States, it's the same develoment in MSM coverage here in Europe, too.

[Luca]

2 hours ago, Castanza said:

Andddd just like that the war in Ukraine is over to 90% of the people Ukrainian flag flying people here in the States! More social clout now available surrounding Israel and Palestinian….

 

I think this fits well to that whole social clout Ukraine, Isreal, LGBTQ, minority rights activists whatever etc:

 

21. Leftists may claim that their activism is motivated by compassion or by moral principles, and moral principle does play a role for the leftist of the oversocialized type. But compassion and moral principle cannot be the main motives for leftist activism. Hostility is too prominent a component of leftist behavior; so is the drive for power. Moreover, much leftist behavior is not rationally calculated to be of benefit to the people whom the leftists claim to be trying to help. For example, if one believes that affirmative action is good for black people, does it make sense to demand affirmative action in hostile or dogmatic terms? Obviously it would be more productive to take a diplomatic and conciliatory approach that would make at least verbal and symbolic concessions to white people who think that affirmative action discriminates against them. But leftist activists do not take such an approach because it would not satisfy their emotional needs. Helping black people is not their real goal. Instead, race problems serve as an excuse for them to express their own hostility and frustrated need for power. In doing so they actually harm black people, because the activists’ hostile attitude toward the white majority tends to intensify race hatred.

 

22. If our society had no social problems at all, the leftists would have to INVENT problems in order to provide themselves with an excuse for making a fuss

 

Thats why its often almost impossible to discuss these things with such people because they dont want to truly discuss the topic but rather use it for their own psychological benefit. Its even true for politicians that suffer from this bias and it harms politics and society in general. You will see that people who are balanced and neutral getting immediately attacked for it (like Trump, other right wing politicians or non conforming left wing politicians). Pretty interesting.