Russia-Ukrainian War

[Luke]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Yes that's the obvious answer...Europe should load up on weapons......the issue with re-arming Europe is like the person who buys a gun to protect his family from somebody breaking into their home.....not realizing that by bringing a lethal weapon into his house he's made his family statistically less safe, not more safe.

 

See the other, somewhat unarticulated, purpose of NATO for many years.......was to create a security umbrella under which European players but mainly France & Germany had no need to build up a military defensive capabilities. This type of re-arming is exactly how the continent has been wrecked twice in the last hundred years or so.

 

 

There is currently around 2.5T USD of cash spend annually on building out the military of states, thats capital which is almost completely wasted and cold metal sitting around doing nothing while we face (with the exception of china) severe underinvestment in infrastructure in basically any developed country. Now people come up with ideas of increasing that amount severely to protect us and make the world safer which leads to others doing the same in a never ending spiral. Just by this argument it becomes evident that building out the military does not lead to more peace but rather to malinvestment and the potential for bigger and bigger catastrophy, even just by accident. Thats why we need to elect leaders that are capable of developing international relations which all previous administrations of NATO, US whatever were incapable. The UN was already dismantled by previous US administrations with breaking the UN law over and over again, thats why BRICS is forming, thats why there are many states turning their back towards the "western alliance" and seek diplomatic relationship with China or at least continue to maintain them with russia. That trump is negotiating is great but he is unfortunately a mixed message, doing two steps ahead and two back at the same time.

49 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

The post-WWII ideal of nuclear non-proliferation was completely correct and again back to my point about the short sightedness of these Trump/Hegseth moves......you dismantle the global security architecture (however imperfect/costly) at your peril .....in the nuclear age the concept of national security for a superpower via isolationism is quaint & naive......a concept from a time when the world didn't have ICBM's and 100 megaton bombs ...the US withdrawing into itself and away from Kissinger-esque stable equilibriums or balances of power which manifest themselves in supra-national organizaitons.....really does not enhance the safety of Americans, it makes them less safe over the long pull...in a world without rules with no cop on the beat so to speak.....nuclear proliferation is now the logical default position for any sovereign nation.....that looks at the rules based system (NATO, UN, WTO etc.) being sidelined or completely deconstructed by Trump.

 

I admire what Trump is doing in terms regulation, the deficit and backing us philosophically out of this crazy woke cul-de-sac we were in I actually applaud him on these polcies.... but as it relates to foreign policy (tarriffs on allies, UN/WTO/NATO) I must say I dont see a President optimizing for America's interests over the long pull.....I see a guy smashing away at a load bearing wall with no plan for what's going to hold up the roof up after he's done with the wall.

The US was never this peaceful hegemon under previous administrations that brought everyone together but rather played out everyone and only served its own interest and continues to do so, economically and military.

Edited Tuesday at 10:20 PM by Luke

[Luke]

I think europe is incapable of organizing their military properly together, its much easier if there is a small chain of commands than a chain of command through 27 member states attached with X military personnel, constitutional differences, different electoral cycles etc. I think its best that the nations focus on their sovereignty, invest strategically in sectors with future potential and become experts in these fields that grow both their domestic economy but also are products that can be sold at high margin globally (see semiconductors, biotech, automachines etc), eventually some succeed and some wont and have to continue to sell their labor at low margin or be jobless and try to get up the value chain (the weaker southern countries for example). The Ukraine war is a showplace for the US and Russia and will end anytime soon, the billions of weapons where a waste of money and a waste of human life. There was the window of an even better deal in 2022 and it was neglected, just madness.

Edited Tuesday at 10:32 PM by Luke

[changegonnacome]

14 minutes ago, Luke said:

The US was never this peaceful hegemon that brought everyone together but rather played out everyone and only served its own interest and continues to do so, economically and military.

 

Not saying the US is/was an angel - far from it but this is a relative game......but when one thinks about this problem (let's call it global stability, prosperity & existentialism in the nuclear age) it's almost like a currency pair.....one should think about the status quo relative to the possible alternative.......perhaps the alternative is all pizza and fairytales......I tend to think we might look fondly back at the unipolar moment and the historically benign hegemon that was the United States Empire......you dont miss your water till the well runs dry......and I suspect we wont miss the rules based order with all its deep deep flaws, imbalances and exploitations till its gone and replaced by a system which inherently will be anarchistic. 

 

Time to bust out the 4th Turning to see what happens next.......but If I remember correctly......it seems like a bunch of people are going to have re-learn how important overarching institutions are......which can only be learned it seems by experiencing a touch of anarchy for a while.....if my mental cliff notes are right from that book! 

 

Edited Tuesday at 10:33 PM by changegonnacome

[Luke]

1 minute ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Not saying the US is/was an angel - far from it but this is a relative game......but when one thinks about this problem (let's call it global stability, prosperity & existentialism in the nuclear age) it's almost like a currency pair.....one should think about the status quo relative to the possible alternative.......perhaps the alternative is all pizza and fairytales......I tend to think we might look fondly back at the unipolar moment and the historically benign hegemon that was the United States Empire......you dont miss your water till the well runs dry......and I suspect we wont miss the rules based order with all its deep deep flaws, imbalances and exploitations till its gone and replaced by a system which inherently will be anarchistic. 

This rulebased order could have only existed as long as the majority of countries globally were underdeveloped or continue to stay underdeveloped. This changed with china which was actually not what the US wanted i believe. I think we are now facing a future with much more growth and increased competition and that will be good for humankind.

1 minute ago, changegonnacome said:

Time to bust out the 4th Turning to see what happens next.......but If I remember correctly......it seems like a bunch of people are going to have re-learn how important overarching institutions......which can only be learned it seems by experiencing a touch of anarchy for a while.....if my mental cliff notes are right from that book! 

The UN was founded after WW2, i hope we dont need a WW3 to understand why it was founded...the UN is the only tool how we can lower military spending, increase mutual trust and move closer to each other instead of more and more distance and hostility that will ultimately end in escalation either by accident or by the wrong administration.

[Luke]

But my gut tells me that Trump does not want to be a war guy and he and his administration have spoken a lot about the problematic expansionism of the US, like Vance. We will see whats going to happen...:)

[cubsfan]

If you want peace, you prepare for war.

 

There will always be evil people in the world, that only understand strength.

[Luke]

27 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

If you want peace, you prepare for war.

 

There will always be evil people in the world, that only understand strength.

Yes, so soon military will be 50% of the annual budget and we need to build bases on mars to store all the tanks and nuclear weapons...you always have to prepare and the other guy is also preparing...there will always be evil and they only understand strenght...

[Spekulatius]

I think the main lesson is that everyone needs nukes. North Korea already does some saber rattling and my guess is that Iran is tong to get theirs for sure as well. Europe needs to get its own nuclear umbrella. It’s a matter of sovereignty now.

 

South Korea needs nukes yesterday.

[Xerxes]

6 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Absolutely - Ukraine would not be in the situation its in today if it did not foolishly believe the USA and UK's assurances around security guarantees giving up its 1200 nukesor whatever it was and signing the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in exchange for verbal vibe assurances around its borders. Deeply deeply foolish move by the Urkanian leadership at the time.

Wrong. 
 

Those ICBMs were not Ukraine’ to give or not to give, nor they had command and control. They belonged to the Soviet Union, and then Russia as the surviving state. 

That said I agree that they could have “taken” them and through their ingenuity found a way to control them. They are after all resourceful people. Had they done that, they would have become a pariah state. You cannot change one parameter in the past assume everything else would have remain the same. 

[Xerxes]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I think the main lesson is that everyone needs nukes. North Korea already does some saber rattling and my guess is that Iran is tong to get theirs for sure as well. Europe needs to get its own nuclear umbrella. It’s a matter of sovereignty now.

 

South Korea needs nukes yesterday.

Poland, Japan, South Korea, yes but not Ukraine. 
 

Ukraine will go the Iranian path, coming out of a similar brutal long war. It will become a near threshold nuclear state. There but not there. 

[Xerxes]

I listened to the full Trump interview today. It is clear that he wants Zelenskyy gone pronto. 

[John Hjorth]

Which interview, @Xerxes ?

[Luke]

10 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I think the main lesson is that everyone needs nukes. North Korea already does some saber rattling and my guess is that Iran is tong to get theirs for sure as well. Europe needs to get its own nuclear umbrella. It’s a matter of sovereignty now.

 

South Korea needs nukes yesterday.

Is the world safer when there are not only 12k nuclear warheads but 20k or 30k? And you then still have a M.A.D situation where both parties wont pull the trigger and just fight a conventional war that will still lead to infinite uparming, droneuparming etc. It never ends, nobody is safer afterwards, it costs a treasure that desperately needs to be invested in important things and it increases the total risks for everyone while leading to the possibility for even more brutal conflicts.

[Sweet]

5 minutes ago, Luke said:

Is the world safer when there are not only 12k nuclear warheads but 20k or 30k? And you then still have a M.A.D situation where both parties wont pull the trigger and just fight a conventional war that will still lead to infinite uparming, droneuparming etc. It never ends, nobody is safer afterwards, it costs a treasure that desperately needs to be invested in important things and it increases the total risks for everyone while leading to the possibility for even more brutal conflicts.

It’s the game that is played.  There is not point shouting at the sky and arguing it should be this way or that way.  If the likes of Putin has nukes then we need them too… there is simply no escaping that.

[Luke]

16 minutes ago, Sweet said:

It’s the game that is played.  There is not point shouting at the sky and arguing it should be this way or that way.  If the likes of Putin has nukes then we need them too… there is simply no escaping that.

Its an everlasting uparming that ultimately will lead to conflict, i also think the countries who have to engage in this kind of uparming will fall behind economically because it drains so much ressources. Its not smart from a diplomatic or economic perspective, with the reasonable diplomatic engagement institutions like the UN could serve their purpose of deescalation and dearming but you need people willing to do so. If you come in with a mindset of "its the game that is played lets go all in" of course nothing will happen but thats not smart frankly, my two cents.

[Sweet]

Just now, Luke said:

Its an everlasting uparming that ultimately will lead to conflict, i also think the countries who have to engage in this kind of uparming will fall behind economically because it drains so much ressources. It’s not smart from a diplomatic or economic perspective, with the reasonable diplomatic engagement institutions like the UN could serve their purpose of deescalation and dearming but you need people willing to do so. If you come in with a mindset of "its the game that is played lets go all in" of course nothing will happen but thats not smart frankly, my two cents.

Why does up arming lead to conflict?  I don’t think that it does.

 

Countries arm themselves for a reason.  Those reason are the root cause of conflicts.

 

Mutually assured destruction does have a peace keeping role.

 

 

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Luke said:

Is the world safer when there are not only 12k nuclear warheads but 20k or 30k? And you then still have a M.A.D situation where both parties wont pull the trigger and just fight a conventional war that will still lead to infinite uparming, droneuparming etc. It never ends, nobody is safer afterwards, it costs a treasure that desperately needs to be invested in important things and it increases the total risks for everyone while leading to the possibility for even more brutal conflicts.

The world being safer doesn’t matter if your country is not safe. Russian is a very hostile power, China as well and the USA are on a Neo Imperialist path now. Especially as a smaller country with mighty neighbors owning nukes you are giving up your sovereignty if you don’t own nukes as well.

 

South Korea for example has no protection anymore from NK nukes or Chinese aggression. Europe has no protection from Russian nuclear bullying. With Article 5 in question or gone, the NATO really doesn’t exist any more the way it used to. Europe is on its own now that’s should be very clear. What it makes out of this situation is much leads clear.

[Xerxes]

4 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Which interview, @Xerxes ?

there you go 

 

 

[Xerxes]

“Think of it, a modestly successful comedian, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, talked the United States of America into spending $350 Billion Dollars, to go into a War that couldn’t be won, that never had to start, but a War that he, without the U.S. and “TRUMP,” will never be able to settle,” Trump said of Zelenskyy, who was popular television star in Ukraine before running for office.

is this a political thriller on HBO or what …. 

[cubsfan]

Pretty funny actually. Most of what he said is true about Zelensky. It will be good to get this war settled. Not sure Zelensky has a lot of cards to play.

[Gregmal]

Yea it’s crazy how many people advocated for giving this clown endless blank checks. 

[cubsfan]

9 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Yea it’s crazy how many people advocated for giving this clown endless blank checks. 

 

Yes, I was very slow to come around to the fact that Zelensky is a dictator who rules with an iron fist, at the same time stealing his allies blind. I bought the whole freedom fighter shtick,,, hook, line and sinker.  When I heard that Biden refused to audit any of the aid going to Ukraine, I finally woke up.

[Gregmal]

8 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Yes, I was very slow to come around to the fact that Zelensky is a dictator who rules with an iron fist, at the same time stealing his allies blind. I bought the whole freedom fighter shtick,,, hook, line and sinker.  When I heard that Biden refused to audit any of the aid going to Ukraine, I finally woke up.

That is what’s scary. The lying is so rampant and the media is the biggest problem. People don’t know what to believe anymore and have few real resources for getting to the truth. Remember the endless propaganda about how Ukraine was “winning” this war and “wrecking” Russia? All designed to just keep the money train going. 

[John Hjorth]

37 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

“Think of it, a modestly successful comedian, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, talked the United States of America into spending $350 Billion Dollars, to go into a War that couldn’t be won, that never had to start, but a War that he, without the U.S. and “TRUMP,” will never be able to settle,” Trump said of Zelenskyy, who was popular television star in Ukraine before running for office.

is this a political thriller on HBO or what …. 

 

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114031332924234939

 

 

@Xerxes,

 

He is a disgrace to The Office.

 

Do you remember the concept of 'The Alternative Reality' under his first presidential period?

[Parsad]

53 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Pretty funny actually. Most of what he said is true about Zelensky. It will be good to get this war settled. Not sure Zelensky has a lot of cards to play.

 

41 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Yea it’s crazy how many people advocated for giving this clown endless blank checks. 

 

29 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Yes, I was very slow to come around to the fact that Zelensky is a dictator who rules with an iron fist, at the same time stealing his allies blind. I bought the whole freedom fighter shtick,,, hook, line and sinker.  When I heard that Biden refused to audit any of the aid going to Ukraine, I finally woke up.

 

19 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

That is what’s scary. The lying is so rampant and the media is the biggest problem. People don’t know what to believe anymore and have few real resources for getting to the truth. Remember the endless propaganda about how Ukraine was “winning” this war and “wrecking” Russia? All designed to just keep the money train going. 

 

You guys are fucking retards, believing everything Trump spews in his vitriolic posts!  

 

https://www.csis.org/analysis/where-missing-100-billion-us-aid-ukraine

 

He wants Zelensky gone now because Zelensky wouldn't provide shit on the Bidens. 

 

The fact that you guys are even mildly enthused and believe that Putin is anything but a fucking maniac is beyond me!  I never thought I would see this shit happen in the United States, but it is...anything can happen these days and fiction has become fact!  

 

Cheers!