Russia-Ukrainian War

[Pelagic]

Pretty good take here in the sense that various actions by Ukraine over the last few weeks/month have been enabling operations for this strike. Lots of videos out there of both the S-400 radar station being taken out a few weeks ago and HIMARs strikes on various mobile radar stations along the Black Sea coast in Russian occupied Kherson.

 

https://x.com/general_ben/status/1701934174209221082?s=20

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, no_free_lunch said:

This is good.  It provides additional leverage for negotiations.   

 

Reading the coverage, I feel that when Russia gets attacked it's always spun as though they have been cheated.  "The UK is supplying weapons..."   Yes, they are.   All predictable responses for attacking a country with which defense alliances exist.  Russia can stop this immediately by simply removing themselves from Ukrainian territory.  I have no sympathy for their position.

Would you mind providing proof for your assertion that there is a defense alliance between UK and Ukraine?  I was not aware that one existed.  

[no_free_lunch]

3 hours ago, Dinar said:

Would you mind providing proof for your assertion that there is a defense alliance between UK and Ukraine?  I was not aware that one existed.  

Defacto.   The proof is in the arms delivery and training.

[no_free_lunch]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Looks like both ships are completely destroyed.

https://x.com/UKikaski/status/1701890251306762666?s=20

 

Yes, for the Russians it must feel like the Ukraine uses a cheat code when using western weapons.

The real cheat code would be to ignore Ukraine and focus on problems at home.  Build up the economy, education systems, reduce corruption,  so much more.  With its energy and other resources they could be very wealthy. 

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, no_free_lunch said:

The real cheat code would be to ignore Ukraine and focus on problems at home.  Build up the economy, education systems, reduce corruption,  so much more.  With its energy and other resources they could be very wealthy. 

For the moment I thought that you were talking about US.  You are absolutely right of course, that's what Russia should have done.  It needs Lee Quan Yew and so do we.

[Xerxes]

 

The passages above that relates to the Crimean War of 1850s. Replace “Turkey” with “Ukraine” and Et Voila !

 

Currently there is no defense treaty de facto, de jure or otherwise between London and Kiev. What there is a desire by London to keep European status quo being upset by a revisionist power and some good old self defense for Kiev, which translates into common goal between the two .. for the moment. That moment may feel like an eternity in a heat of passion for those glued to their TV sets, … but in a historical context, measured in decades, is a blip. 
 

How many times did London screwed the Turks, only to save them, to screw them again and again, and then save them, as various governments rose and fell in London and as its geopolitical interest in the Near East ebbed and flowed.  
 

In current context, the “war party” in London wants to have its pound of flesh. And an impatient, overexcited and insecure Putin, perhaps feeling his own mortality in a historical context, had all but granted it to them that opportunity. 

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-09-13/the-world-is-still-better-off-with-us-hegemony

 

The Pax Americana was never perfect, just preferable to no pax at all. Here’s hoping that it stays with us a bit longer.

...

Is US power actually waning, or does it just seem that way? Does the US, going into a presidential election next year, even want to remain hegemon? Or are Americans fed up with defending that battered regime so awkwardly named the “rules-based international order”? Not least, should the world root for American decline or continued US preeminence? That last one depends largely on where in the world you happen to find yourself. If you’re in Beijing, US hegemony can’t end fast enough, because you think China should reclaim its rightful place as a sort of Middle Kingdom in world affairs. If you’re in Tallinn, Estonia, you want the US to stay strong and engaged, because you realize that an American presence in Europe is probably the only thing standing between you and renewed subjugation by the Kremlin at some point. 

.. 

But ask yourself two questions. The first is whether the world would be better off substituting in a different hegemon. Given the prerequisites in economic, technological, military and nuclear power, that could only be China in the foreseeable future. I doubt many people beyond its borders would choose the Chinese Communist Party as ward of the international system and its rules. The second question is whether the world would really improve if it had no hegemon at all — that’s the alternative implied by the catchphrase of multipolarity. If you accept, as I do, that the international system’s default state is anarchy, the answer is No. And even if you believe in the balance of power as the secret sauce, keep in mind that in that realist tradition war is a feature rather than a bug in the system — it’s what recalibrates the scales every so often.

 

Edited September 14, 2023 by UK

[UK]

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-it-eliminated-advanced-russian-air-defense-system-in-crimea-a7c97151

 

Ukrainian forces destroyed one of Russia’s most advanced air-defense systems in Crimea, a Ukrainian security official said, striking a fresh blow to Russia’s military on the occupied peninsula that serves as a critical logistical base for Moscow’s war in Ukraine. The strike in the early hours of Thursday morning used drones and Ukrainian-made cruise missiles to target the S-400 missile system near Yevpatoriya in western Crimea, the official said. Videos shared online showed a fireball and a plume of smoke near the city.

...

The operation marks the first officially confirmed use of the Ukrainian-produced Neptune missile to attack a target on the ground. Neptune is a ground-launched antiship missile, designed and produced in Ukraine based on a Soviet-era weapon. It shot to prominence in April 2022 when it was used to sink the Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. The missile, which has a range of about 200 miles, was later adapted to strike ground targets. Ukraine has received cruise missiles from the U.K. and France, but stocks are limited and the U.S. and Germany are still deliberating whether to approve Kyiv’s requests for further long-range weapons. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last month said Ukraine was upgrading production facilities and could produce “colossal numbers” of missiles, including Neptunes.

[John Hjorth]

Today, the first four F-35s [absolutely awesome flying machines!] arrived here in Denmark, so something - F-16s - will now in due course leave Denmark, headed to Ukraine.

 

It was with material delay. How can the worlds fastest fighter air plane even be delayed? 

 

 

[ValueArb]

36 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Today, the first four F-35s [absolutely awesome flying machines!] arrived here in Denmark, so something - F-16s - will now in due course leave Denmark, headed to Ukraine.

 

It was with material delay. How can the worlds fastest fighter air plane even be delayed? 

 

 

 

Fastest? I think you mean best, though the F-22 might be better in some roles. 

[John Hjorth]

Jens Stoltenberg - The situation explained - so to say - on the rim.

 

 

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Today, the first four F-35s [absolutely awesome flying machines!] arrived here in Denmark, so something - F-16s - will now in due course leave Denmark, headed to Ukraine.

 

It was with material delay. How can the worlds fastest fighter air plane even be delayed? 

 

 

I actually think the Lockheed Starfighter f104 designed in the 50’s was faster than the F-35.

[ValueArb]

13 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I actually think the Lockheed Starfighter f104 designed in the 50’s was faster than the F-35.

 

It was. 

 

Top Speeds (according to Wikipedia):

F-35: Mach 1.6 

F-104: Mach 2

F-22: Mach 2.2

MIG-25: Mach 2.83

 

The F-104 was a little hot rod that could climb like a scalded cat. It was also very dangerous to its pilot. First version had a downward firing ejection seat because they didn't have one that could clear the tail, but also had problems with compressor stalls on takeoffs on hot days, so that was pretty much an end of life accident.  It also didn't have very much range, and needed its afterburner to go Mach 2 which drained the tank real quick.

 

The F-22 isn't just faster than the F-104, it can fly supersonic without an afterburner giving it a far greater range while supersonic. And it's stealth, but costly, expensive to maintain, and loses like 3 weeks every 2-3 months to required refurbishment of its skin.

 

The MIG-25 was a huge sled that was super fast, but not maneuverable or stealthy and had a short range. It was built to intercept B-70 Valkyrie Mach 3 bombers, but they were canceled years before it was finished. It did have a huge and powerful radar, and was replaced by the very similar MIG-31, a two seater with more advanced radar that they are still using today to launch Kinzal missiles at Ukraine. Ukraine can't shoot it down because it flies so high and fast.

 

Finally the F-35 is very stealthy, has a good range, is cheaper to build and maintain than the F-22, and has a both a carrier version and a vertical takeoff/landing version for the Marines. It can't supercruise and is nowhere near as fast as the F-22 but we can afford to fly more of them and they should have a high readiness percentage.

[John Hjorth]

KAL's cartoon this week :

 

[Xerxes]

[Xerxes]

On Kremlin’ Afrika Korps. 
 

In contrast the Deutsches Afrikakorps was ran by gentlemen, waging war nobly.  

 

[Spekulatius]

Fighting with beer against the French in Africa :

https://www.marketwatch.com/video/how-wagner-used-beer-to-spread-russian-influence-in-africa/C9257E93-0074-4BBB-8F37-94EA63CAD82A.html

Edited September 17, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Luke]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/13/zelensky-ukraine-war-leaked-documents/

 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has won the trust of Western governments by refusing to use the weapons they provide for attacks inside Russia and prioritizing the targeting of Russian forces inside Ukraine’s borders.

 

But behind closed doors, Ukraine’s leader has proposed going in a more audacious direction — occupying Russian villages to gain leverage over Moscow, bombing a pipeline that transfers Russian oil to Hungary, a NATO member, and privately pining for long-range missiles to hit targets inside Russia’s borders, according to classified U.S. intelligence documents detailing his internal communications with top aides and military leaders.

 

They reveal a leader with aggressive instincts that sharply contrast with his public-facing image as the calm and stoic statesman weathering Russia’s brutal onslaught.

Edited September 18, 2023 by Luca

[Luke]

Really wondering how big the propaganda level in our country is and how much truth there is to what Russia says. I surely do not believe the West to tell its citizens the truth but cant say to which degree. Most likely also impossible to know, party in our Parliament tried to gain further information regarding the bombing of the pipeline but where put off due to "state secrets". 

[UK]

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/09/17/an-interview-with-the-head-of-ukraines-defence-intelligence

[ValueArb]

11 hours ago, Luca said:

Really wondering how big the propaganda level in our country is and how much truth there is to what Russia says. I surely do not believe the West to tell its citizens the truth but cant say to which degree. Most likely also impossible to know, party in our Parliament tried to gain further information regarding the bombing of the pipeline but where put off due to "state secrets". 

 

Can you be more specific about what who refuses to answer? Because for one big problem, its unclear whether anyone bombed the Nordstream pipelines.

 

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/10/nordstream-ii-electric-instapundit.html

 

 

[Luke]

7 hours ago, ValueArb said:

 

Can you be more specific about what who refuses to answer? Because for one big problem, its unclear whether anyone bombed the Nordstream pipelines.

 

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/10/nordstream-ii-electric-instapundit.html

 

 

Request: 

 

https://www.bundestag.de/presse/hib/kurzmeldungen-921048

 

The left-wing faction continues to see a great need for clarification regarding the attacks on the Nord Stream 2 and Nord Stream 1 pipelines on September 26, 2022. In a small question (20/4303), the MPs want to know, among other things, how the federal government can respond to legal and, specifically, international law criteria, attacks by, in the opinion of the questioners, state actors on infrastructure in international waters, some of which are owned by German companies through shareholder ownership evaluate and what knowledge the federal government has so far about the timing and technical sequence of the incidents and the damage caused.

 

We ask the Federal Government: 1. How does the Federal Government assess attacks by, in the opinion of the questioners, state actors on infrastructure in international waters, some of which are owned by German companies through shareholder ownership, from a legal and especially international law perspective? 2. What knowledge does the federal government have so far about the timing and technical sequence of the incidents on the two double strands of the Nord Stream 2 and Nord Stream 1 pipelines? a) When and where did the explosion occur or did the explosions occur on the Nord Stream 2 lines? b) When and where did the explosion occur or did the explosions occur on the Nord Stream 1 lines? c) According to the Federal Government's knowledge, how many explosions or detonated explosive devices are there in total? d) What quantity did the explosions achieve, and according to the Federal Government's findings, what amount of military explosives would be necessary to achieve this effect in the corresponding water depth on the gas pipelines? e) How long is the distance between the explosion sites on the two pipelines? f) How much time does a conventional ship and a submersible each need on average to travel this distance? 3. What findings does the federal government have so far about the damage caused to the two double strands? a) How many of the four individual lines were opened by the explosions? b) How long are the pipelines torn?

 

Reply of the government:

 

“With reference to possible conflicts with the interests of allied states or their secret services, the so-called third-party rule, the federal government refuses to provide any further information. She even refuses to provide the usual information under classified classification or to deposit it with the secret protection office of the German Bundestag. If the government assumes that disclosure of its information could lead to a disruption of mutual trust with allies or impair the protection of German interests abroad, then Parliament must be involved all the more urgently. It is a serious attack on the sovereignty of the Federal Republic. The attack also destroyed infrastructure that was strategically important for the country's energy independence. In this serious situation, MPs must be involved.”

 

The Question to me is how much does the secret service know and how much is told to the public? 

 

 

2022-10-11_Nordstream_9-489-Nastic.pdf

[Luke]

"If such information were available, it would be evident must be kept secret because it contains security-relevant information include, which is subject to the confidentiality of treatment foreign intelligence services to the German intelligence services were forwarded. A disclosure of information that is according to the Rules of “third party rule” were obtained would be considered a disruption of the mutual basis of trust and would have one severe impairment of the participation of the federal intelligence services in the international exchange of knowledge. A possible Access by unauthorized persons would have significant disadvantages Impact on the trusting cooperation between the Federal intelligence services with foreign intelligence services have. Dignity as a consequence of a loss of trust Information from foreign bodies is omitted or essential decline, there would be significant information gaps with negative ones Consequences for the accuracy of the depiction of the security situation the Federal Republic of Germany and with regard to protection German interests abroad. A disclosure of the information would also enable further clarification of secret service activities and against the Federal Republic of Germany make it considerably more difficult. The The requested information therefore affects those in need of protection Secrecy interests that protect the welfare of the state parliamentary right to information prevails and the right to ask questions MPs exceptionally opposed to the interest in secrecy must take a back seat to the federal government."

[John Hjorth]

8 hours ago, ValueArb said:

 

Can you be more specific about what who refuses to answer? Because for one big problem, its unclear whether anyone bombed the Nordstream pipelines.

 

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/10/nordstream-ii-electric-instapundit.html

 

 

 

Investigations and reports were carried out by Denmark and Sweden, because the explosions took place in the Baltic waters of these two specific countries. Russia asked for permission to participate in these activities, which was turned down and denied.

 

What was brought forward and released by the Danish Minister of Foreign Affairs Lars Løkke Rasmussen was that this was indeed sabotage, but he woulden't get into specifics about who was under suspicion, and reports made classified.

 

Reason for this as mentioned by @Luca above.

 

[Pretty un-Danish approach, likely an approach chosen under pressure from allies, I speculate, all with a very "fishy" odor to me personally. Personally to me also, we all have a right to know what this actually was, as a part of the whole picture of what has been going on.]

 

There is no doubt this was sabotage.

 

The Guardian [October 18^th 2022] : Nord Stream 1: first underwater images reveal devastating damage

[John Hjorth]

More detail about what happened to the submarine under the attack on the Sevastopol shipyard. Reads and looks like it's toast & scrap worthy. Please see especially contents of tweet #2 in the thread. It has really taken a beating.