Russia-Ukrainian War

[cubsfan]

Wagner Group getting chewed up on both sides:

 

https://www.foxnews.com/world/russia-sacrificing-mercenary-forces-live-meat-wagner-group-warlord-loses-putins-trust

 

[CGJB]

On 3/9/2023 at 2:14 PM, no_free_lunch said:

Well you literally just said you hoped Russian stocks trade again. I mean that is part of free speech so I defend your right to say that. Just know that if you talk against Russia in Russia you are fucked. Probably literally. 

 

Yes, I hope Russian stocks trade again. Just like I hope Russia is successful with its Special Military Operation.

 

Z

[Xerxes]

US drone: Russian jet forces down MQ-9 Reaper over Black Sea | CNN Politics

 

The Reaper drone and two Russian Su-27 aircraft were flying over international waters over the Black Sea on Tuesday when one of the Russian jets intentionally flew in front of and dumped fuel on the unmanned drone several times, a statement from US European Command said.

 

The aircraft then hit the propeller of the drone, prompting US forces to bring the MQ-9 drone down in international waters. Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder added Tuesday that the Russian aircraft flew “in the vicinity” of the drone for 30 to 40 minutes before colliding just after 7 a.m. Central European Time.

 

“Our MQ-9 aircraft was conducting routine operations in international airspace when it was intercepted and hit by a Russian aircraft, resulting in a crash and complete loss of the MQ-9,” Air Force Gen. James B. Hecker, commander of US Air Forces Europe and Air Forces Africa, said in the statement. “In fact, this unsafe and unprofessional act by the Russians nearly caused both aircraft to crash.”

[james22]

Tilson:

 

My Trip to Ukraine Last Week: The Ukrainian Tiger Is About to Devour the Russian Bear

 

https://assets.empirefinancialresearch.com/uploads/2023/03/My-trip-to-Ukraine-last-week-Whitney-Tilson-3-13-23-1.pdf

[cubsfan]

@james22 - thanks for posting these great slides. Good for Tilson doing some real good.

 

It's great to hear about the spirit of the Ukrainians. It will be interesting to see how "victory"

is defined:

 

- Russians expelled from Eastern Ukraine?

- Expelled from Crimea?

- Current advanced just stopped cold. But nothing left but rubble anyway. So a DMZ?

 

 

Edited March 15, 2023 by cubsfan

[Viking]

Michael Kofman has been one of my go-to’s when wanting to get an update. He just returned from a trip to Ukraine to get first hand information. He expects a Ukraine offensive in the coming months (after Ukraine is re-armed by the West). He expects something decisive to happen. He is normally pretty guarded so that surprised me. 
 

 

Edited March 15, 2023 by Viking

[Gregmal]

Interesting stuff on Tilson. I was not aware that his parents were both teachers. The investing legend had two teacher parents, went to Harvard, and then immediately launched a hedge fund right out of school. Now sells newsletters. Rags to riches story if I’ve ever heard one.

Edited March 16, 2023 by Gregmal

[boilermaker75]

Video showing the Russian jet spraying fuel on the drone and colliding with it.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/us-military-releases-video-taken-100212758.html

[John Hjorth]

NPR.org [ March 16^th 2023] : Poland will send fighter jets to Ukraine, the first NATO country to do so .

[Xerxes]

30 minutes ago, boilermaker75 said:

Video showing the Russian jet spraying fuel on the drone and colliding with it.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/us-military-releases-video-taken-100212758.html

is this a deleted scene from Top Gun 2?

We have been betrayed !! It seems that Paramount has been keeping a hidden Extended Edition version of Top Gun (ala Peter Jackson LOTR) to double-dip our pockets 

[John Hjorth]

Reuters [March 17 2023] : ICC judges issue arrest warrant for Putin over war crimes in Ukraine .

 

The article mentions :

 

Kremlin says arrest warants 'outrageous und unacceptable'

Putin is third serving head of state to get ICC arrest warrant

 

Yes, it places the man in a certain leage, almost of his own. However not like getting an Oscar for best permance or Nobels Prize for Peace.

 

Mr. Browder must be overjoyed.

[John Hjorth]

On 3/16/2023 at 5:52 PM, Xerxes said:

is this a deleted scene from Top Gun 2?

We have been betrayed !! It seems that Paramount has been keeping a hidden Extended Edition version of Top Gun (ala Peter Jackson LOTR) to double-dip our pockets 

 

@Xerxes,

 

This tweet is for you.

[Xerxes]

On 3/18/2023 at 4:15 AM, John Hjorth said:

 

@Xerxes,

 

This tweet is for you.

 

Looks like the internet community have it beyond doubt that it was NOT from a Top Gun deleted scene, with Tom Cruise flying a stolen Su-27. Now if the same internet community can put their effort and intellect to solve an actual mystery (Nord Stream pipelines) that would be great. 
 

This “T1000 drone Terminator vs. Su-27 Flanker” episode I think would be classified under cat-and-mouse game that always been there but now running with more threshold for risk. Perhaps to “normalize” of military engagements/contacts between the two nuclear powers. The more you blur the line the more you can leverage your hybrid warfare.
 

I think there will simply be more of these pushes by the Kremlin. But nothing consequential will come of it. That said listening to news reporter asking Pentagon officials in press conference if the drone incident was an act of war was hilarious. These silly reporters seem to forget that NATO led by U.S. is actually at war with Russia. However it is a war were both sides have decided to fight within a certain framework of containment. 

 

 

Edited March 19, 2023 by Xerxes

[shhughes1116]

On 5/18/2022 at 9:05 PM, shhughes1116 said:

A few weeks ago, I said to expect the Fourth Battle of Krakiv, which would blow open the Russian flank in the Donbas and lead to an encirclement of Russian troops.  That is now happening in Izyum - the Ukrainians are starting to pinch that salient, while at the same time Ukraine troops are threatening Vovchansk.  This will suck Russian troops from other areas to protect the railroad lines between Belgorod and Donbas.   And they are being sucked into their rear areas to defend against partisans, especially in the South.  
 

With the growing manpower advantage and with an unending stream of weapons from the West, I suspect we are going to see Ukraine sever the land-bridge to Crimea this Summer by attacking towards Melitpol.  This would expose the flank of Russian troops in Kherson and likely cause them to fall back into Crimea, rather than hold Kherson and die like the Ukrainian soldiers in Mauriopol.  That opens up numerous possibles for Ukraine to finish the war on their terms. 
 

Plenty more bleeding and death to come, sadly.  But I think we are going to see the Russian army routed in the field.  

 

For those of you that still follow this war closely, there have been some interesting actions recently, which lead me to believe the Ukrainian counter-offensive is coming soon, maybe late Spring.    

1. A handful of Russian mil-bloggers have been reporting Ukrainian attacks near Polohy.  From what is described, the Ukrainians are conducting reconnaissance in force.    

2. The most recent aid package from the United States contained fuel trucks designed to support heavy tanks and mechanized infantry in the field.

3.  Recent aid packages have included a lot of bridging and engineering equipment.    

4. Over the past few months, it looks like the Ukrainians have been reinforcing Bahkmut with Territorial Defense Forces and existing Brigrades (i.e. 80th, 92nd, 93rd).  Clearly things are tough in Bahkmut, but it doesn't look like they've been sending new units that have been recently trained by the West.  And I don't see any of the new vehicles they've been getting from the West (i.e. AMX-RC10s, Leopard 2s, Marder IFVs, Bradley IFVs). 

5.  Ukraine is forming 28,000 volunteers into Assault Brigades - that's about 10 brigades.   

 

By my estimation, Ukraine has another 5-6 undeployed brigades and support units trained by the West that have not been deployed yet.  Add in the Assault Brigades and you get a force of 15-16 Brigades.  The Challenger II and Leopard II tanks that they get this Spring, along with the Strykers, Bradleys, and Marders, will enable Ukraine to create from these brigades two armored brigades and a handful of mechanized brigades.  This is a pretty formidable force, especially with the Leopard IIs and Challenger IIs in the van. 

 

I continue to think the main thrust happens through Polohy, with subsequent thrusts to Berdyansk and Melitpol.  I think there will be a Dnipro River crossing - maybe a feint -  to keep Russian forces fixed along the river.  If the Russians remain fixed to the river, I'll bet we see a thunder run by the ex-French AMX-RC10s towards the Crimean Isthmus to prevent Russian forces from retreating into Crimea, which might cause a rout amongst the Russian forces that are currently along the Dnipro River.    

 

I think Ukraine gets one chance at a counter-offensive.  If this fails, I think they are pushed by the West to sue for peace.      

 

 

 

 

[Xerxes]

Not exactly related but informative 

 

 

[ValueArb]

On 3/23/2023 at 1:13 PM, shhughes1116 said:

 

For those of you that still follow this war closely, there have been some interesting actions recently, which lead me to believe the Ukrainian counter-offensive is coming soon, maybe late Spring.    

1. A handful of Russian mil-bloggers have been reporting Ukrainian attacks near Polohy.  From what is described, the Ukrainians are conducting reconnaissance in force.    

2. The most recent aid package from the United States contained fuel trucks designed to support heavy tanks and mechanized infantry in the field.

3.  Recent aid packages have included a lot of bridging and engineering equipment.    

4. Over the past few months, it looks like the Ukrainians have been reinforcing Bahkmut with Territorial Defense Forces and existing Brigrades (i.e. 80th, 92nd, 93rd).  Clearly things are tough in Bahkmut, but it doesn't look like they've been sending new units that have been recently trained by the West.  And I don't see any of the new vehicles they've been getting from the West (i.e. AMX-RC10s, Leopard 2s, Marder IFVs, Bradley IFVs). 

5.  Ukraine is forming 28,000 volunteers into Assault Brigades - that's about 10 brigades.   

 

By my estimation, Ukraine has another 5-6 undeployed brigades and support units trained by the West that have not been deployed yet.  Add in the Assault Brigades and you get a force of 15-16 Brigades.  The Challenger II and Leopard II tanks that they get this Spring, along with the Strykers, Bradleys, and Marders, will enable Ukraine to create from these brigades two armored brigades and a handful of mechanized brigades.  This is a pretty formidable force, especially with the Leopard IIs and Challenger IIs in the van. 

 

I continue to think the main thrust happens through Polohy, with subsequent thrusts to Berdyansk and Melitpol.  I think there will be a Dnipro River crossing - maybe a feint -  to keep Russian forces fixed along the river.  If the Russians remain fixed to the river, I'll bet we see a thunder run by the ex-French AMX-RC10s towards the Crimean Isthmus to prevent Russian forces from retreating into Crimea, which might cause a rout amongst the Russian forces that are currently along the Dnipro River.    

 

I think Ukraine gets one chance at a counter-offensive.  If this fails, I think they are pushed by the West to sue for peace.      

 

 

 

 

 

Ukraine isn't going to ever sue for peace and it's never going to be abandoned by most of Europe, esp UK and US. This is at least a 3-5 year war, and we need accept that and start training and supplying them with more modern weapons, including Abrams, F-16 and ATACMS. 

 

Russian's cannot fully replace modern equipment losses and won't likely ever be able to during duration of war. Their tiny economy was already in sad shape before the war. They couldn't build anything more than a handful of T-14 Armatas, or SU-57s in the last decade. Now with sanctions instead of having an Italy size economy they might be half that. And with much more diminished access to modern computer chips. They'll keep pouring in sacrificial troops and using massive amounts of ammunition, artillery and dumb munitions, but over time as the costs of war hit more and more families in Russia proper the inevitable mass street protests will begin.

 

All the Ukrainians have to do is take back Melitopol and take out the Kerch bridge, and Crimea falls as trapped and unsupplied Russian troops panic and try to flee on the few available ferries.

[Dinar]

4 hours ago, ValueArb said:

 

Ukraine isn't going to ever sue for peace and it's never going to be abandoned by most of Europe, esp UK and US. This is at least a 3-5 year war, and we need accept that and start training and supplying them with more modern weapons, including Abrams, F-16 and ATACMS. 

 

Russian's cannot fully replace modern equipment losses and won't likely ever be able to during duration of war. Their tiny economy was already in sad shape before the war. They couldn't build anything more than a handful of T-14 Armatas, or SU-57s in the last decade. Now with sanctions instead of having an Italy size economy they might be half that. And with much more diminished access to modern computer chips. They'll keep pouring in sacrificial troops and using massive amounts of ammunition, artillery and dumb munitions, but over time as the costs of war hit more and more families in Russia proper the inevitable mass street protests will begin.

 

All the Ukrainians have to do is take back Melitopol and take out the Kerch bridge, and Crimea falls as trapped and unsupplied Russian troops panic and try to flee on the few available ferries.

I wish that you were right, but I am afraid that your support for Ukraine blinds you to how unpopular supporting Ukraine is in Europe and US.  I cannot imagine for a moment that the French who are protesting the increase in the pension age or Germans who are on strike today would be willing to sacrifice E 100bn to support Ukraine for the next 3-5 years.  What gives you that confidence?  In the US, I have not seen any reliable poll done of what support for Ukraine is.  I can promise you that the support Ukraine gets in my circle of Ivy League educated friends is  matched by visceral opposition to helping Ukraine from far more numerous porters, doormen, supers, barbers and other working class folk.  

[cubsfan]

^^^ That's an interesting response. Of course, the Germans and France are going to be the key, if Ukraine is going to be saved. I have no idea how to handicap it - but they would be nuts to let Ukraine go.  You can talk about $100B here and there - but pretty much the future of Europe is at stake.  

 

Are they really that stupid?

[Dinar]

22 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

^^^ That's an interesting response. Of course, the Germans and France are going to be the key, if Ukraine is going to be saved. I have no idea how to handicap it - but they would be nuts to let Ukraine go.  You can talk about $100B here and there - but pretty much the future of Europe is at stake.  

 

Are they really that stupid?

Why would they be nuts?  They are all NATO countries....

[ValueArb]

4 hours ago, Dinar said:

I wish that you were right, but I am afraid that your support for Ukraine blinds you to how unpopular supporting Ukraine is in Europe and US.  I cannot imagine for a moment that the French who are protesting the increase in the pension age or Germans who are on strike today would be willing to sacrifice E 100bn to support Ukraine for the next 3-5 years.  What gives you that confidence?  In the US, I have not seen any reliable poll done of what support for Ukraine is.  I can promise you that the support Ukraine gets in my circle of Ivy League educated friends is  matched by visceral opposition to helping Ukraine from far more numerous porters, doormen, supers, barbers and other working class folk.  

 

In Europe it's been made perfectly clear how tenuous their future is if Russia wins in Ukraine. That would increase the size of Putin's military by a third, Russia's economy by a similar amount, allow them to dominate the Black Sea and put a ton of Russian divisions and air crews 400 miles closer to western Europe.

 

And Ukrainian aid passed overwhelmingly in both houses by roughly 80% yes votes. Some americans don't understand how critical this conflict and our future geopolitical costs that will increase if Ukraine loses (and how much better and safer the world will become when Ukraine takes back all of its territory). But I remain confident that most americans will understand this. Even DeSantis came around.

[cubsfan]

11 hours ago, Dinar said:

Why would they be nuts?  They are all NATO countries....

 

France & Germany are the defacto leaders of Europe. If they throw Ukraine to the wolves, it just invites Russia to take any of his European neighbors he wants. They would be nuts to let $100B 

stand in the way of the defense of Europe.

Edited March 28, 2023 by cubsfan

[Dinar]

10 hours ago, ValueArb said:

 

In Europe it's been made perfectly clear how tenuous their future is if Russia wins in Ukraine. That would increase the size of Putin's military by a third, Russia's economy by a similar amount, allow them to dominate the Black Sea and put a ton of Russian divisions and air crews 400 miles closer to western Europe.

 

And Ukrainian aid passed overwhelmingly in both houses by roughly 80% yes votes. Some americans don't understand how critical this conflict and our future geopolitical costs that will increase if Ukraine loses (and how much better and safer the world will become when Ukraine takes back all of its territory). But I remain confident that most americans will understand this. Even DeSantis came around.

So what?  Russia + Ukraine + Belarus would still be weaker than the European members of NATO.

Again, Germany and France are NATO countries, so US is obligated to defend them and so is UK.  You still have not explained why even if Russia wins in Ukraine, it can threaten NATO countries!

 

What gives you the confidence that an average American will prefer to help Ukraine rather than have an extra $1000-$2000 in his family's pocket?  By the way, again, please explain why Russia's victory in Ukraine is a threat to US interests? I do not understand why this is so!  Just because something passes Congress does not mean man on the street supports it, and if the people do not support it, Congress will follow the people.  

@cubsfan  Please explain how Russia can take any of its European neighbors even if it wins in Ukraine?  All of them, except for Moldova are members of NATO, so you see Russia able to defeat NATO?

[Pelagic]

15 hours ago, Dinar said:

I wish that you were right, but I am afraid that your support for Ukraine blinds you to how unpopular supporting Ukraine is in Europe and US.  I cannot imagine for a moment that the French who are protesting the increase in the pension age or Germans who are on strike today would be willing to sacrifice E 100bn to support Ukraine for the next 3-5 years.  What gives you that confidence?  In the US, I have not seen any reliable poll done of what support for Ukraine is.  I can promise you that the support Ukraine gets in my circle of Ivy League educated friends is  matched by visceral opposition to helping Ukraine from far more numerous porters, doormen, supers, barbers and other working class folk.  

 

The German government said a couple days ago they expect the war to last several years and want to increase their support from around 3B per year to 15B.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/germany-hoping-increase-military-aid-174914484.html

 

Meanwhile France is considering buying back Mirage fighter jets it sold to UAE to send to Ukraine. 

 

What governments end up spending a couple percent of their defense budget on and what a vocal portion of their constituency want them to do are often very different things.

 

I think better framing and more accurate accounting of aid provided would help supporters case, at least among those who are undecided or supportive of the current level of aid but wary of additional aid. For example almost everyone I've talked to who is against supporting Ukraine thinks the US is simply giving them cash which is then lost to corruption. That the vast majority of aid comes in the form of actual military supplies, a lot of which are past their prime, is lost on many of those opposing further aid. There's also an incentive structure at work that makes inflating the cost of materiel provided beneficial, both for those providing it as a show of support and a way to flex their soft power to other countries - China mainly, and for Ukraine as a way to play supporting countries against each other and encourage them to provide more.

[Dinar]

6 minutes ago, Pelagic said:

 

The German government said a couple days ago they expect the war to last several years and want to increase their support from around 3B per year to 15B.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/germany-hoping-increase-military-aid-174914484.html

 

Meanwhile France is considering buying back Mirage fighter jets it sold to UAE to send to Ukraine. 

 

What governments end up spending a couple percent of their defense budget on and what a vocal portion of their constituency want them to do are often very different things.

 

I think better framing and more accurate accounting of aid provided would help supporters case, at least among those who are undecided or supportive of the current level of aid but wary of additional aid. For example almost everyone I've talked to who is against supporting Ukraine thinks the US is simply giving them cash which is then lost to corruption. That the vast majority of aid comes in the form of actual military supplies, a lot of which are past their prime, is lost on many of those opposing further aid. There's also an incentive structure at work that makes inflating the cost of materiel provided beneficial, both for those providing it as a show of support and a way to flex their soft power to other countries - China mainly, and for Ukraine as a way to play supporting countries against each other and encourage them to provide more.

I agree with you, with one caveat.  Germany's military budget is $56bn, so if it increased aid to Ukraine to E 15bn per annum, then it is spending not a couple of percent of its military budget but more like 28-30%.

[ValueArb]

15 minutes ago, Dinar said:

I agree with you, with one caveat.  Germany's military budget is $56bn, so if it increased aid to Ukraine to E 15bn per annum, then it is spending not a couple of percent of its military budget but more like 28-30%.

 

Germany's military budget has to increase, it knows this.