Russia-Ukrainian War

[no_free_lunch]

14 hours ago, Xerxes said:

Go after India !!!?!?

Are we talking about the same West that pivoted to China post-Vietnam war during the Nixon-Kissinger-Mao-EnLai rapprochement in the 70s. With the very same Red China that fought bloody war with India near its border. 
 

The same West that supported Pakistan during the Cold War. Pakistan and the US were so close that U2 missions were even flown its soil. In fact, Kissinger even flew from Pakistan for its secret mission to China before it became public. 
 

The same West that keep subsiding Pakistan’ general and ISI, during the Afghan war. 
 

As always, there is the self-centred, all-about-me West, that remember what it wants to remember (through Hollywood), and forgets what is convenient to forget. 
 

India will get close to West overtime as their own pace. We need India. We want India. The only obstacle is West acting like it always does. Self-entitled and all-about-me. Relationships are hard to built and easy to fracture. It needs to be nurtured overtime. Folks in the West may go Aeroplane mode when it gets boring, but the world doesn’t stop turning. 
 

PS: general comment and definitely not toward you. 

Point taken.  India is not the hill I will die on so to speak. 

[John Hjorth]

32 minutes ago, Dinar said:

This is a faulty analysis.  If Sweden disappears from the face of the earth, how will that impact the world's economy?  If Russia stops exporting oil, gas, titanium, etc... the world will be devastated.  

 

Russia's ability to suffer is orders of magnitude more than in the West.  Europeans do not have electricity/gas, people riot.  In Russia, there are a lot of villages without either.

 

 Europe and the US is very vulnerable to asymmetric warfare - cyber attacks, attacks on electric grids, water supplies, etc...  How difficult would it be for Russian special forces to destroy all transformers in say US and Western Europe?   That would bring the Western world to its knees.

 

Instead of pontificating of how weak and irrelevant Russia is, think about our own vulnerabilities.  

 

The best outcome for all parties, (Ukraine, Russia, the West) is an immediate peace treaty or armistice.  The delay just benefits India and China.

 

Time is NOT on the side of Ukraine, do not delude yourselves.  Russia has tremendous reserves of foreign currency, gold, etc... Do you realize that it could easily hire 300K North Korean mercenaries tomorrow?

 

 

 

@Dinar,

 

What's your nationality? -I ask as basis for replying to you. Nothing of your post above basically makes much sense to me personally.

[Dinar]

9 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

@Dinar,

 

What's your nationality? -I ask as basis for replying to you. Nothing of your post above basically makes much sense to me personally.

Really?  Which part?  The irrelevance of Sweden?  What does Sweden export?  Think what happens if Russian oil/gas/titanium/grain disappears from the world market.  Russia can exist without the West.  The West can exist without Sweden.  Sweden cannot exist without the rest of the world.  Sweden without the rest of the world will go back to stone age - using wood for firewood, assuming you have enough.  What is my nationality?  How does that matter?  If it helps, assume that I am Assyrian, who speaks Aramaic as his mother tongue and lives in NYC.  Now what conclusions can you draw?

Edited January 15, 2023 by Dinar

[John Hjorth]

@Dinar & all continually reading participants in this CoBF topic,

 

I'm not going to engage further in my exchange above with @Dinar.

[Dinar]

@John HjorthIf you find truth uncomfortable, keep living in your bubble.  It will not make the facts disappear.  

[John Hjorth]

@Dinar,

 

As I have already posted, please have me excused with regard to reaction to your posts in this topic. The exchange between you and me in this topic stops exactly now and here. Period.

[no_free_lunch]

Russia can't get by without the west in a proper sense but I don't know if they have a choice . They dont have the tech industry and so will stagnate decades behind.  Even the USSR  couldn't come close to matching the west and now Russia is a fraction of that..  during the USSR period we got by just fine without them, can be done again. 

 

These posts to me just echo Russia. Just threats.  Give us what we want or else..  You never give in to terrorists or bullies.  Sure, armistice with condition of leaving Ukraine. 

 

Im convinced the west can neutralize the threat with sufficient tech.  In the first gulf war the US and allies defeated Iraq with just a few hundred casualties.   Iraq had a huge army too but technologically inferior.  Tech matters and that's our edge.  I realize Russia is not Iraq but it still kind of rhymes. We need to apply tech here and fast. I'm not a mil guy so I won't try to get more specific but I know revolutionary things are happening in ai and robotics. We need to get to the point where these threats of mobilization are just a humanitarian concern for the conscripts. 

 

Edited January 15, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[Dinar]

The importance of countries is not measured by GDP, it is measured by what happens to the world if the country starts acting differently.  

North Korean GDP is immaterial, but it can nuke Seoul, Peking, Tokyo and Los Angeles, and hence the world pays attention.

 

Russia exports 7MM barrels of oil per day, if it stops, the world's oil price goes to $200+ and the world goes into a deep recession if not a depression.  Similar if not the worse story with nickel, titanium, etc...  Possibly grain, although I am less certain on that.

 

History is full of examples when an immaterial economic power - the Mongols, Tamerlane, Arabs in 622 AD, took over half of the world, including much wealthier countries.  

 

Russia is an a very bad situation, that however does not mean that either Ukraine or the West are in  a good situation.  

Russia by virtue of being a rich dictatorship that does not care about means, has options that we in the West do not consider.  What happens if Russia offers North Korean $20bn per each year that 500K North Korean soldiers fight in Ukraine?  

 

All I hear on this board is how vulnerable Russia is, and it is.  However,  good chess players neither ignore the weaknesses of their own positions (vulnerability of electric grid, oil dependence, etc..) nor the options that the opponent has.

 

If the war lasts another twelve months, will American taxpayers be willing to spend another $1000 per family on the war?  Will the Europeans during a cold and brutal winter continue to support Ukraine?  Will the West run out of ammunition?  

 

Both sides - Russia and Ukraine/West are very vulnerable.  Sure, if Putin died tomorrow, and a Russian Lee Kuan Yew came to power who wanted Russia to be like Finland/Sweden/Poland/Lithuania/France/Germany, I and the world would rejoice.   However, wishing will not make it a reality.  

 

We have to deal with the reality, and not what we would like the world to be.  That starts with acknowledging the situation, the weaknesses and strengths of both our position, and Russian position.   Any rational analysis will show that both sides are in a very bad spot, rather than Russia is in a bad spot because its GDP is the size of Sweden and we are wealthy so we win.  Wealth advantage did not help Persia (agains the Arabs), the world (against Mongols), and the list goes on.

 

Stop living in the world of dreams.  While you are dreaming, thousands of people are dying.  Your refusal to face reality is probably helping prolong the war.  What are you going to tell Ukrainians in six months - we are tired of funding your war?  We do not have the ammunition anymore?  What if the war lasts five more years?  And yes, I care, because had I been born a decade earlier, I would have been drafted and most likely sent to my death in Afghanistan.  

 

 

 

[james22]

1 hour ago, Dinar said:

had I been born a decade earlier, I would have been drafted and most likely sent to my death in Afghanistan.  

 

Ah.

 

[Warner]

Russia has more resources that most will admit to. Not high tech of course but they will go low tech. They have the collective thought to sacrifice for their country. This is not over and done. Russia will fight back again and a lot more people will die. We tend to look through at Russia like a western country and that they are not. For better or worse that is for them to decide. Who will be victorious, how that looks, and the costs of it no one can know yet. But, I promise the costs for both sides will be extreme and this will not likely end in an amicable long term agreement.

 

Everyone looks at Putin like a villain in this. And, he is. 

 

But, very few people are looking back at the main missile and arms treaties the USA have unilaterally backed out of. And no one is also looking back in the recent history and noting that the West have perpetually lied to Russia at every opportunity in the past 30 year. 

 

Russians look upon Putin favourably as he has actually improved Russia a lot since the 90's. He has their goodwill in general and he can't loose this war entirely.

[Xerxes]

When you do a NPV on Russia you need to use their ‘discount rate’ not our Western ‘discount rate’ sort of speak, in their capacity to endure. 
 

How the whole thing (current situation) started (with Putin’ own miscalculation) is largely  irrelevant. Russia cannot have NATO next door, doing what it does best, slowly but surely suffocating it. Sometimes slow, the 2000-08, sometimes fast, 2008-22, but always tightening the noose at every opportunity, even as it keeps smiling. 
 

It is a clear and present danger. You agreeing or disagreeing, or your sudden interest about democracy in Ukraine, has nothing to do with it and totally irrelevant. This is bigger than Putin and can easily outlive him. Despite Western obsession to have a central figure for its narrative. 

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Warner said:

Russia has more resources that most will admit to. Not high tech of course but they will go low tech. They have the collective thought to sacrifice for their country. This is not over and done. Russia will fight back again and a lot more people will die. We tend to look through at Russia like a western country and that they are not. For better or worse that is for them to decide. Who will be victorious, how that looks, and the costs of it no one can know yet. But, I promise the costs for both sides will be extreme and this will not likely end in an amicable long term agreement.

 

Everyone looks at Putin like a villain in this. And, he is. 

 

But, very few people are looking back at the main missile and arms treaties the USA have unilaterally backed out of. And no one is also looking back in the recent history and noting that the West have perpetually lied to Russia at every opportunity in the past 30 year. 

 

Russians look upon Putin favourably as he has actually improved Russia a lot since the 90's. He has their goodwill in general and he can't loose this war entirely.

Putin may not be able to afford losing this war, but that doesn't mean he won't. Japan was willing to sacrifice all heir soldiers too and it didn't help them. Now the technological delta between what the west can supply and what Russia can get is way larger than during WW2. Russia simply can't make up the difference in combat worthiness with conscripts serving as meat shields.

 

Let's see what happens, but I am willing to bet that Ukraine get's quite a few tanks for an offensive. The UK has already greenlighted a few Challenger tanks (only 14) but that's just a signal for the NATO meeting in Ramstein where the next Aid package will be decided and that will likely include more tanks from Germany. Also note that the German defense Minister Lambrecht just stepped down. She has been reluctant to supply heavy weapons to Ukraine but likely due to directions from the Chancellor Olaf Scholz, but I think she has become the sacrificial lamb to allow a change in policy on this matter.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/16/german-defense-minister-christine-lambrecht-resigns-amid-ukraine-war-backlash.html

Edited January 16, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Dinar]

2 hours ago, Warner said:

Russia has more resources that most will admit to. Not high tech of course but they will go low tech. They have the collective thought to sacrifice for their country. This is not over and done. Russia will fight back again and a lot more people will die. We tend to look through at Russia like a western country and that they are not. For better or worse that is for them to decide. Who will be victorious, how that looks, and the costs of it no one can know yet. But, I promise the costs for both sides will be extreme and this will not likely end in an amicable long term agreement.

 

Everyone looks at Putin like a villain in this. And, he is. 

 

But, very few people are looking back at the main missile and arms treaties the USA have unilaterally backed out of. And no one is also looking back in the recent history and noting that the West have perpetually lied to Russia at every opportunity in the past 30 year. 

 

Russians look upon Putin favourably as he has actually improved Russia a lot since the 90's. He has their goodwill in general and he can't loose this war entirely.

I agree with everything that you say except for your claim that Russians look upon Putin favorably.  I know many people who either came from Russia recently or know people who have.  None of them know anyone who looks upon the guy favorably.   Millions of people fled Russia.  Last week I took a gypsy cap in Brooklyn, the driver was from Yakutia.  He and his two sons made it via Kazakhstan to Mexico and walked across the border.  According to him, it is not an isolated case.  Had Putin been so popular, would he really need to rig every election?  

 

 

 

As for backing out of treaties, I recall Kaiser Wilhelm saying that treaties were just scraps of paper.  I personally do not support this view, but this has been the way of the world for millenia.   As for Russia being aggrieved here, spare me.   Invasion of Poland in 1919 when Pilsudski stopped them, invasion of Poland in 1939, winter war with Finland.  The bully gets punched in the face, cry me a river!

I do find it hypocritical when Boris Johnson is incensed about Russian war atrocities, and yet is silent on even bigger atrocities committed by the British in the Boer War.   

 

If the West was not run by hypocritical morons - Biden, Macron, et all, they would instead of sending tanks to Ukraine do the following:

a) Open borders to Russians fleeing Putin

b) Given citizenship to deserters from Putin's army

c) Publicize the above in Russia

 

Putin would not have an army in three months. 

[Spekulatius]

I agree with Dinar here- Europe/ the US opening borders for Russian's would bleed Russia much more so than the war casualties . They could even have the pick of the people they allow in. It's likely cheaper too and net beneficial from a demographics POV.

 

The people that like Putin are to a large extend not the one going to war. Think old people who grew up with the Sovjet Union was a superpower. There are even quite a few older people in Germany who seem to like the DDR still, even though their life has improved by leaps and bounds.

Edited January 16, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

It still baffles me how there could there still be a statue of King Leopold II standing, or why had it taken so much time to take them down.

 

Atrocities in the Congo Free State - Wikipedia

 

At the end of the day, it is all about the color of skin of the victims. 

 

West will moan and complain about its "spread of democracy" and do its mumbo jumbo, and do its patriotic Hollywood bullshit.

 

No one wants to know about Sir Winston Churchill using chemical weapons to go after the Iraqi kurds. It is un-interesting and it undo- the British glorification. It is classified as "ohh that was a different time". What the f*ck does that mean. Your's "this was another time" was someone else; "this is happening now"

 

 

Edited January 16, 2023 by Xerxes

[Xerxes]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russian-strike-pattern-suggests-it-is-low-ballistic-missiles-2023-01-16/
 

SS300 and SS400 are being used for ground targets.
 

The gentleman who guests on the War on the Rock podcast was right on the money. Massive amount artillery shells were used in summer. As recently as Dec it dropped to 20,000 shells per day from as high as 60,000 shells per day last spring and summer. Now that the manpower is available it needs to fix its hardware deficit, which went to overdrive in mid 2022. 
 

https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/russia_spends_20000_artillery_shells_per_day_production_cannot_keep_up_with_such_rates_ukraines_intelligence_chief-5312.html

[RichardGibbons]

6 hours ago, Xerxes said:

No one wants to know about Sir Winston Churchill using chemical weapons to go after the Iraqi kurds. It is un-interesting and it undo- the British glorification. It is classified as "ohh that was a different time". What the f*ck does that mean. Your's "this was another time" was someone else; "this is happening now"

 

I'm pretty confused by why anyone who isn't a time traveler would equate "things that happened a century ago, and everyone is completely unable to change anything about what happened", and "things that are happening right now and could be changed today in a myriad of ways by taking actions today."

 

IMO, a good basic strategy for success is to focus most of one's energy on the things that one can impact today, not the things that happened a century ago and are completely unchangeable. And I think this rough heuristic works pretty well for both people and countries.

[Xerxes]

29 minutes ago, RichardGibbons said:

 

I'm pretty confused by why anyone who isn't a time traveler would equate "things that happened a century ago, and everyone is completely unable to change anything about what happened", and "things that are happening right now and could be changed today in a myriad of ways by taking actions today."

 

IMO, a good basic strategy for success is to focus most of one's energy on the things that one can impact today, not the things that happened a century ago and are completely unchangeable. And I think this rough heuristic works pretty well for both people and countries.

 

Century ago ? .... How about just a few years ago ...

 

You chose the farthest out datapoint to make your point. (granted I gave you that datapoint as ammunition)

... but my comment could be easilly apply to things that happened just a few years ago (not a hundred years ago).

 

Rohingya genocide - Wikipedia
 

Now suddently everyone in the West is a freaking peace-loving, crying out for victims, calling out to stop genocide. blah blah. Hypothetically speaking, How many of you, would be looking the other way, if it is your own government doing it some another party, ... or worse how many of you would be wrapping yourselves in the flag, .... or even worse, justifying it with whatever non-sense the media tells you to repeat. 

 

I have no problem if folks want to talk about economic aspect, geopolitical, humanterian aspect of this conflict in East Europe, or the history of it with its multiple points of view, that is all fair game. But I cannot stand hypocracy, and all that holier than thou bullshit, as if one was born yesterday. 

 

Perhaps, i am totally wrong, and there is zero hypocracy.

Won't be the fist time that I was wrong. 

 

So I'll just say that generally speaking, agreed with your comment and point well taken. 

 

[lnofeisone]

4 hours ago, Xerxes said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russian-strike-pattern-suggests-it-is-low-ballistic-missiles-2023-01-16/
 

SS300 and SS400 are being used for ground targets.
 

The gentleman who guests on the War on the Rock podcast was right on the money. Massive amount artillery shells were used in summer. As recently as Dec it dropped to 20,000 shells per day from as high as 60,000 shells per day last spring and summer. Now that the manpower is available it needs to fix its hardware deficit, which went to overdrive in mid 2022. 
 

https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/russia_spends_20000_artillery_shells_per_day_production_cannot_keep_up_with_such_rates_ukraines_intelligence_chief-5312.html

The "Russia will soon exhaust its capabilities" narrative has been going on for almost a year. Here is an article dating back to April of 2022 claiming that Russia is running out of ammo. Yet, here we are eight months later and that's with Ukraine successfully blowing up several large ammo/missile depots. 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1590515/Vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-invasion-latest-missiles-running-out

 

One that that's interesting is that Russia is exhausting its soviet stockpiles of old, low-tech missiles, tanks, and vehicles. 10 years out, Russia will likely be a prominent buyer/manufacturer of weapons to refresh its arsenal. 

[Xerxes]

For me the real story is not how much ammunition, shells and out of the box ideas Russia can conjure up to keeping lobbing toward its enemies, but rather how effective has been the use of SMARTArtillery by Ukraine for it to be able to punch above its weight*.

 

*Above its weight measured by the sheer size of the arsenal.

[Pelagic]

14 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

The "Russia will soon exhaust its capabilities" narrative has been going on for almost a year. Here is an article dating back to April of 2022 claiming that Russia is running out of ammo. Yet, here we are eight months later and that's with Ukraine successfully blowing up several large ammo/missile depots. 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1590515/Vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-invasion-latest-missiles-running-out

 

One that that's interesting is that Russia is exhausting its soviet stockpiles of old, low-tech missiles, tanks, and vehicles. 10 years out, Russia will likely be a prominent buyer/manufacturer of weapons to refresh its arsenal. 

 

Most of the ammo Ukraine has destroyed in the major ammo dump explosions you'll see highlighted on twitter, reddit, etc. is of the "dumb" variety. MLRS rockets, artillery shells, stuff like that. The precision stuff is kept and launched from well inside Russia - usually by their strategic bomber force. Hence why Ukraine has tried to target them on the ground with long range drones a couple times.

 

I think the west's intelligence agencies underestimated Russia's ability to produce precision weapons and/or overestimated the impacts of sanctions on that production. Russia has decades worth of precision weapons stockpiled. For instance the Kh-22 that struck the apartment complex in Dnipro is a naval asset designed for use against carriers that first entered service in the 60s, it's not particularly precise but it has a massive warhead and is capable of mach 4+ making it a lot harder to intercept than the usual sub-sonic cruise missiles fired in barrages against Ukraine. Launching strikes of 100+ missiles at a time in an attempt to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense takes a toll on their stockpiles, they may not run out in the sense they can't fire any but their ability to sustain that kind of mass strike against Ukrainian infrastructure is limited. They'll be down to what they can produce monthly, which is likely around 30 or so. Probably add to that some conversion taking place from missiles that were armed with nuclear warheads to convert them to put them in service as conventional weapons.

 

 

[Xerxes]

From AW

 

[Dinar]

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-728770

 

 

Apparently Russia is recruiting mercenaries in Serbia

[UK]

https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/wagner-chief-prigozhin-attacks-putin-administration-over-failure-to-block-youtube-2982772

 

He said there were two reasons why it had not been banned in Russia, which has clamped down on foreign media since invading Ukraine in February: that it was supposedly indispensable for ordinary citizens and, primarily, the opposition of President Vladimir Putin's administration.

 

Moat:)

 

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-01-18/wagner-group-founder-prigozhin-is-putin-s-model-entrepreneur?srnd=premium