Russia-Ukrainian War

[VersaillesinNY]

Joshua : Greetings, Professor Falken.

 

Stephen Falken : Hello Joshua

 

Joshua : A strange game.

The only winning move is not to play.

 

How about a nice game of chess?

 

WarGames, 1983

 

 

[changegonnacome]

On 10/20/2022 at 1:53 PM, VersaillesinNY said:

Joshua : Greetings, Professor Falken.

 

Stephen Falken : Hello Joshua

 

Joshua : A strange game.

The only winning move is not to play.

 

How about a nice game of chess?

 

WarGames, 1983

 

 

 

Soundtrack for the animation makes it, scary stuff........reminder that nobody 'wins' any future war (between nuclear powers) in the atomic age......victory wont be ticker tape parades in Times Square.......it'll be finding out your loved ones weren't incinerated in the initial blast.....then hoping against hope in the ensuing years that various lumps and bumps aren't cancerous.

[changegonnacome]

On Ukraine....seems like Russia now has given up the strangle Ukraine economically strategy that would have been possible by land locking Ukraine from the Black Sea......and has reverted back to the demolition strategy....which is to send it back 20-30 years in time via destruction of infrastructure. Monstrous stuff.

[cubsfan]

Russia should be declared a terrorist nation on par with North Korea & Iran.

 

God knows they've earned it with the intentional killing of babies, women & children, the elderly

and the deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure.

 

Perhaps with Sweden & Finland joining NATO - the Ukraine will eventually make it - and we

will be closer to dealing with these terrorists in a fight they can not win.

 

It's good to watch the Ukrainians whip their asses every day of the week.

[Spekulatius]

7 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Russia should be declared a terrorist nation on par with North Korea & Iran.

 

God knows they've earned it with the intentional killing of babies, women & children, the elderly

and the deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure.

 

Perhaps with Sweden & Finland joining NATO - the Ukraine will eventually make it - and we

will be closer to dealing with these terrorists in a fight they can not win.

 

It's good to watch the Ukrainians whip their asses every day of the week.

I agree on declaring them a terrorist state. De facto they are already. Trying to hit civilian infrastructure has a poor record of changing war outcome as well. The Russians will most likely lose Kherson and a significant part of their army very soon.

 

A countermeasure against the drone swarm will be found as well, possibly by jamming GPS signals or something like cannon based defense systems.

The Iranians don’t do themselves any favors either. What little they gain by helping Russia will be absolutely overshadowed by increasing sanctions and getting deeper in the terrorist state stigma and international isolation. Really stupid from their perspective.

 

The mobilization brings through war from something to watch on TV to something that starts to affect lots of families and I think quite soon , almost everyone will know someone who get killed or injured in the Ukraine. How much this changes Public opinion, we do not know, but I think it will change the perception for some people about their government.

Edited October 24, 2022 by Spekulatius

[no_free_lunch]

Just one persons opinion but this commentary is airing on the main Russian news site of RT.  This is why despite strategic bombing against them, Ukraine will keep fighting.  It's not a war, it's the start of a genocide. 

Quote

Krasovsky interjected and said: "For them to rape Ukrainian grannies. Gawd, those grannies would spend their burial savings to get raped by Russian soldiers."

..

"Over there every piece of s*** little house, there are masses of awful, monstrous little houses. They s*** all over the Carpathian Mountains. [The] Carpathian Mountains are disgusting…Shove them right into those huts and burn them up," Krasovsky said.

..

Lukyanenko replied: "Yes, because I wouldn't want to live in the same country with many of the people who will remain there. So, we will shoot them."

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/23/rt-presenter-says-just-drown-children-promotes-genocide-ukraine/

Edited October 24, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[Xerxes]

Get over it people. 

Folks were blowing up each other infrastructure since the dawn of whatever.
 

I get the emotional baggage specially with this conflict given who is the “enemy”, but there is no need to act like it is first time you see this (I.e. infrastructure getting destroyed affecting real people). That is what happens in war, last I checked. And I do check very often. 
 

Maybe this is first war that actually interests you (one does wonder why). If that is so, welcome to the real world.
 

Reminds me of murder of George Floyd. No one cared how many black men died before or since. But Floyd’ murder was the one we chose to hang our hat on. Perhaps something to do with being in lockdown in Covid and needing to get it out. Who knows 
 
Analyze this conflict for related news, what it could become and share resources if you want help the victims. Keep the OMG reactions, “I cannot believe it” …. for some other forum.

 

PS: sorry for my usual rambling. Not trying to offend anyone. 

Edited October 25, 2022 by Xerxes

[Spekulatius]

It‘s a war. Russians do what they always have done. Give Ukraine weapons to eliminate the threat - defense system, but also long range weapons to take out the launch sites wherever they are (Crimea).

 

Get back to the Iran regime responsible for the drones and Republican guard as well with targeted sanctions as well. I didn’t really know that the Republican guard is not just elite army (and terror organization ) but sort of works like commercial and industrial organization woven deep into the Iranian economy. Sounds a bit like Putins Oligarch cleptocracy/oligarchy system.

 

Edited October 25, 2022 by Spekulatius

[cubsfan]

^^If the US can spend $400B to forgive student loans, they could easily help bury the Russians

by flooding Ukraine with weapons. The annual budget for Russian's armed forces is around $65B.

The US budget is almost $800B. Together with the Europeans - the US doesn't need to risk 

lives - is $100B in weapons enough to stop an obsolete military??   Should be.

 

The whole world is best served by destroying the Russian military.

 

Putin will still have his nukes, but we'll still have ours.

Edited October 25, 2022 by cubsfan

[Xerxes]

@Spekulatius

 

I would let the technocrats at US State Department run their cost-benefit model to gauge the NPV of attacking Russia proper. 
 

That aside, by all means, flood Ukraine with defensive weapons. 
 

If Kremlin has done the attack on the  infrastructure much earlier in the war (as soon as they realized the fantasy of coup was not to be), West wouldn’t be crying foul play. LoL.
 

ironically if Putin looses power, it won’t be because of taking Russia on an imperial adventure, but rather because he didn’t hit them hard enough on the right targets  (conventionally).  
 

 

[Pelagic]

This is an interesting thread on the use of Iranian made drones in Ukraine. It gets into the weeds on the cost of the drones vs. the cost of anti air systems currently available to Ukraine. At $20-40k a piece the drones, even when intercepted, are using up missile stockpiles that are each 10x or more their cost. Ukrainians are very capable and on the issue of defending civilian infrastructure have almost total support from the West so it's likely just a matter of time until their 80% interception rate increases to closer to 100%. It seems they're working on their own version of the Shahed-136 as well.

 

 

[Dinar]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

^^If the US can spend $400B to forgive student loans, they could easily help bury the Russians

by flooding Ukraine with weapons. The annual budget for Russian's armed forces is around $65B.

The US budget is almost $800B. Together with the Europeans - the US doesn't need to risk 

lives - is $100B in weapons enough to stop an obsolete military??   Should be.

 

The whole world is best served by destroying the Russian military.

 

Putin will still have his nukes, but we'll still have ours.

a) Forgiving student loans was a huge mistake that will cost us dearly

b) What makes you think that US interests will be served by destroying Russian military?  China is a much bigger threat to the US than Russia, and it would be nice to have a strong Russia as a counterweight to China, since China is very interested in regaining Siberia, and Russia is afraid of China, and hence a natural enemy of China. 

[cubsfan]

^^^ Well, you may indeed have a point. How about we destroy most of the Russian military

so they don't pose a threat to Europe?

 

Intelligent minds can disagree on how much & how far.

 

In the end, Russia will still poses all it's nukes, which serves as a significant protection against

their enemies.  I figure we'd both like to see their expansionary aggression capabilities

clipped once and for all.

 

We can certainly outspend them, just as Reagan did in the '80's. That's my point.

[Spekulatius]

22 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

^^^ Well, you may indeed have a point. How about we destroy most of the Russian military

so they don't pose a threat to Europe?

 

Intelligent minds can disagree on how much & how far.

 

In the end, Russia will still poses all it's nukes, which serves as a significant protection against

their enemies.  I figure we'd both like to see their expansionary aggression capabilities

clipped once and for all.

 

We can certainly outspend them, just as Reagan did in the '80's. That's my point.

Russia and China are linked. First of all, they are allies (even though it may be more like the Stalin Rippentropp pact) and second China is surely watching how Russia is doing in Ukraine and even more so how the West responds to it.

 

I would bet that nobody gave a damn about Ukraine, China would get their preparations for an invasion of Taiwan into overdrive -in fact they may have done it already.

 

China was just a bit smarter to let the Russians go first.

[cubsfan]

^^^ Well that is exactly how I see the situation -but not with huge conviction. I just don't understand enough about Russian/Sino relationships. 

 

The real downside I see to the ramped up of spending against Russia by the US/Europe

is the threat of nuclear war. I don't think anyone can knows what Putin will do - but that

will be hanging over our heads forever with Russia as a future aggressor against the world.

 

Might as well put a stop to it now. It ain't going away on it's own.

[Spekulatius]

35 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

^^^ Well that is exactly how I see the situation -but not with huge conviction. I just don't understand enough about Russian/Sino relationships. 

 

The real downside I see to the ramped up of spending against Russia by the US/Europe

is the threat of nuclear war. I don't think anyone can knows what Putin will do - but that

will be hanging over our heads forever with Russia as a future aggressor against the world.

 

Might as well put a stop to it now. It ain't going away on it's own.

China is likely complicit and knew about the impending attack. Putin met Xi on February 4 supposedly for the Olympic games when Putin was already amassing his army on the Ukraine border.

 

I am guessing Xi told Putin to wait until the Olympic games are over (20 February) and then Russia attacked on February 24.

 

I don't believe in coincidences on these matters. Now, I am not sure if Xi Jinping approved of this war, but he sure didn't do anything to prevent it either. I think they liked the idea that Putin tries his luck first and then decided to let him hang dry when things went sour and claimed to have nothing to do with the matter whatsoever.

[cubsfan]

^^ Makes total sense.

[Xerxes]

Molotov-Ribbentrop pact was between two extreme ideologies and not two kins. It was always going to blow up. 
 

Sino-Soviet relation (and now that of Russia) had some sour moment in the 1970s, but their current ideology is clearly a anti-Western one (and that front needs a long game and not a short-game which was the basis of the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact). That central anti-Western front unites them far more than their differences separates them. 

 

I think you guys are reading too much with WW2 analogies IMHO. 

 

If anything, perhaps there is some resemblance between the clandestine French-British alliance with Israel in the 1956 Suez war. Even that is a stretch.  

[Dinar]

34 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Molotov-Ribbentrop pact was between two extreme ideologies and not two kins. It was always going to blow up. 
 

Sino-Soviet relation (and now that of Russia) had some sour moment in the 1970s, but their current ideology is clearly a anti-Western one (and that front needs a long game and not a short-game which was the basis of the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact). That central anti-Western front unites them far more than their differences separates them. 

 

I think you guys are reading too much with WW2 analogies IMHO. 

 

If anything, perhaps there is some resemblance between the clandestine French-British alliance with Israel in the 1956 Suez war. Even that is a stretch.  

China covets Siberia, which was seized from China by Russia in the 18th and 19th centuries.  

[no_free_lunch]

15 hours ago, cubsfan said:

^^If the US can spend $400B to forgive student loans, they could easily help bury the Russians

by flooding Ukraine with weapons. The annual budget for Russian's armed forces is around $65B.

The US budget is almost $800B. Together with the Europeans - the US doesn't need to risk 

lives - is $100B in weapons enough to stop an obsolete military??   Should be.

 

The whole world is best served by destroying the Russian military.

 

Putin will still have his nukes, but we'll still have ours.

 

Agree.  it is so much cheaper to fight Russia in this method than taking US casualties.  There is no choice either, you can maybe give up Ukraine and kick the can down the road a few years but it will just get worse. 

 

I think if it had been an easy win here then maybe Taiwan would already have been taken too.

[Xerxes]

Greg H on Q3 numbers for Raytheon and the war in Ukraine. I appreciate his steady hand and responses, not to mention the work that he does.  

 

Cramer on the other hand …  like an overgrown child who just found where Ukraine is on the map and suddenly expert on the matter. He is a nice guy for sure, but I never cares too much for theatrics. 

 

 

[Castanza]

10 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

 

Agree.  it is so much cheaper to fight Russia in this method than taking US casualties.  There is no choice either, you can maybe give up Ukraine and kick the can down the road a few years but it will just get worse. 

 

I think if it had been an easy win here then maybe Taiwan would already have been taken too.

 

If I'm reading this correct you are saying that Russia is on a global conquest? 

[boilermaker75]

2 hours ago, Castanza said:

 

If I'm reading this correct you are saying that Russia is on a global conquest? 

 

That made me laugh!

[no_free_lunch]

Not a global conquest, don't put words in my mouth.  A threat to the US similar to the USSR.  Ditto China.  This is not a real stretch either and the two tie together.  If China sees weakness towards Russia then, as they are stronger, they know they will not be resisted.

 

For sure, Finland and Sweden believe that Russia is a threat outside of Ukraine.

[Castanza]

12 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

Not a global conquest, don't put words in my mouth.  A threat to the US similar to the USSR.  Ditto China.  This is not a real stretch either and the two tie together.  If China sees weakness towards Russia then, as they are stronger, they know they will not be resisted.

 

For sure, Finland and Sweden believe that Russia is a threat outside of Ukraine.

 

It was a question. You said "it's only going to get worse" AFTER giving up Ukraine. Wasn't sure what you meant as that was kind of open ended. 

 

Seems like a lot of people in general are Hell bent on wanting this to be WWIII. 

 

It's also amusing to me how people have only now decided to be appalled by war and all the shit that goes on with it. I'd be willing to bet that 90% of the people flying Ukrainian flags here in the US have not donated a single dollar to our Veterans here in the States and Canada.