Russia-Ukrainian War - Political

[Paarslaars]

I think it's a good thing Trump is forcing Europe to up its defense spending, we have piggy backed on the safety of the US military for too long.

We don't need the US to beat Russia, in fact, without the US putting restrictions on how the war is fought (like not attacking russian oil refineries), we can cripple Putin much faster.

 

That said, his behavior towards Zelensky is disgraceful... I'm all for the tough negotiations but this was just childisch and disrespectul from the Americans. JD Vance was making arguments like a child... Most of europe sees all of this as a temporary phase though, just wait out trump, 4 years at most.

 

Edited 5 hours ago by Paarslaars

[Ulti]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-02-19/trump-s-insistence-ukraine-has-rare-earth-elements-is-wrong

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/ukraine-must-guarantee-its-own-security

https://warontherocks.com/2025/02/armed-neutrality-for-ukraine-is-natos-least-poor-option/
 

again ….  (Repeat post)This is a dog and pony show..

There is no rare earth elements to exploit…and This is the only way….

 

“Of proposed alternatives, only armed neutrality avoids these consequences while offering the most promising chance for long-term peace. Ukraine’s armed neutrality would, however, come with responsibilities for NATO members, especially in Europe, to help Kyiv build its arsenal and fortify the continent’s own defenses.”

 

its up to the EU to decide how much they are going to help…

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/rebirth-russian-spycraft

 

the Russians ,just like the Chinese use extensive and deadly espionage against us and other democratic countries…

 

There is no good or evil? 

Just ask this guy

https://apnews.com/article/russia-navalny-death-kremlin-critics-putin-169d691c7ca10666ac63e60eeb6efdfd

I think  he knew a shit ton more about Putin than the people on this board 

[cubsfan]

1 minute ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Bad form and lack of etikette all over!

 

@John Hjorth  Why in the world would you be overly concerned about etiquette and manners when thousands of lives are at stake?    That's incredible. This is not some tea party.

 

I can only tell you this: I've negotiated hundreds of contracts in my career. Things get ugly. Things get tense. People yell at each other - accuse each other. Lose their cool. It happens over and over.

They walk on deals. The bigger the deal, the longer it takes.

 

My general rule: The higher the stakes and the more important the outcome - the LONGER and more difficult the negotiation will be. Negotiations will blow up, people will reassess, and if there is a deal to be made - they will try again. Time is ALWAYS on your side, as it gives the parties a chance to cool down and reassess.

 

There is NO negotiation as high stakes as this one, because the alternative is WAR where thousands die and a country is lost forever.

 

I'm genuinely shocked that you think this is like a polite little tea party. 
There is far too much at stake for this to be easy - otherwise it would have already happened.

 

You are totally unrealistic.

 

 

[tnathan]

1 minute ago, Malmqky said:

 

Putin is a very trustworthy individual

 

Surely we can trust him to stop with what he got. He did after 2014 right?

 

+1 exactly. Which is why the republicans are morons

[Paarslaars]

2 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

@John Hjorth  Why in the world would you be overly concerned about etiquette and manners when thousands of lives are at stake?    That's incredible. This is not some tea party.

 

I can only tell you this: I've negotiated hundreds of contracts in my career. Things get ugly. Things get tense. People yell at each other - accuse each other. Lose their cool. It happens over and over.

They walk on deals. The bigger the deal, the longer it takes.

 

My general rule: The higher the stakes and the more important the outcome - the LONGER and more difficult the negotiation will be. Negotiations will blow up, people will reassess, and if there is a deal to be made - they will try again. Time is ALWAYS on your side, as it gives the parties a chance to cool down and reassess.

 

There is NO negotiation as high stakes as this one, because the alternative is WAR where thousands die and a country is lost forever.

 

I'm genuinely shocked that you think this is like a polite little tea party. 
There is far too much at stake for this to be easy - otherwise it would have already happened.

 

You are totally unrealistic.

 

 

No way you did those negotiations in a large public setting or on TV.

That's the thing, it's all fine to play hard ball in private.

But being disrespectful in public... that causes permanent damage to relationships.

[73 Reds]

8 minutes ago, tnathan said:

If Europe seriously thinks that Putin has no further expansionist urges, then settle the war. But it's hard not to believe that if he is allowed to take large portions of Ukraine that he will simply stop here. I don't know the answer (and you don't either) -- I'm sure the intelligence communities have a good sense. If they think there's a bigger long term threat and the precedent being set in Ukraine creates a scenario where expansionist leaders feel they have a right to expand, you have to fight the war aggressively. It's a really weird (almost pro German WWII) argument to automatically say the world should settle and let Russia have what they want. Very shortsighted.

 

Two questions:  (1) Under what plausible scenario can Ukraine win this war?  (2) If there is none, what choice does the World have other than to demand settlement?

[Viking]

51 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

The USA is turning into an imperialist power. @kab60 Mark my words, but Trump is serious about Greenland too. He want wants to be the president who makes America larger on terms of land mass.

 

Imperialist powers think in terms of land mass first and # of people second . And imperialist likes to deal with other imperialist who think the same way. Thats now an imperialist trifecta of China, Russia, USA and soon India I think.

 

Those not on above list (Europe, Canada etc ) need to do something or they become colonies to be pushed around.

 

What a time to be alive.

 

Interesting take. Makes sense. Past is prologue. Time to brush up on past Imperialist times to get a glimpse of what might be coming... 

[changegonnacome]

Not going to re-litigate any of the underlying historical issues re:Ukraine/US/Europe.

 

What happened today was shit show - deeply incompetent and unserious statecraft shown by this US administration.

 

The core incompetence here comes from even having a press conference and Q&A after their WH meeting - Zelensky should have refused to be involved in one and the WH chief of staff/president should have never allowed for it to happen.

 

We are at a critical juncture in the conflict/negotiations.

 

The US/EU/Ukraine are literally at the negotiating table right now with Putin. The correct, professional posture after this meeting was prepared remarks that showed not an inch of blue sky between Ukraine and new administration (however untrue that might be). This meeting was a lost opportunity to message how much worse things could get for Russia if they didn't concede on various issues to negiote a peace.

 

Instead we got a story about how Trump & Putin have been through tough times together in past. You almost can't make it up:

 

"“Let me tell you, Putin went through a hell of a lot with me,” Trump explained"

 

I can imagine Putin smiling and laughing his ass off at this. It is not a good thing to make your enemy smile and laugh at you.

 

[cubsfan]

6 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Oh, Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

Please give us a break with this line of posting here.

 

That is what was said John. And speck posted his wonderful video about Tulsi Gabbard being a Russian asset and traitor to the US.

 

You have a problem with that - take it up with the posters, not me.

[cubsfan]

6 minutes ago, Malmqky said:

 

Putin is a very trustworthy individual

 

Surely we can trust him to stop with what he got. He did after 2014 right?

 

 

State your alternative. More war?

[Hektor]

If only President Zelensky had watched the Puppet Regime!

 

 

[cubsfan]

5 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

No way you did those negotiations in a large public setting or on TV.

That's the thing, it's all fine to play hard ball in private.

But being disrespectful in public... that causes permanent damage to relationships.

 

It's very easy for you to say that now because this negotiation may not be over.

 

It's only over, if there is no deal to be made and no one wants to compromise.

 

The Europeans can and should certainly step in and settle it. It would be very EASY for them to throw Trump under the bus, blame the USA for EVERYTHING and take credit for the deal.

 

Your leaders should absolutely do that if they have any moral courage at all.

 

They will be heroes - and Trump will knocked down a few pegs. So get it done.

[Malmqky]

2 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

State your alternative. More war?

 

Let's say Russia/Ukraine "negotiate" peace.

 

Do you think that will be that and Putin will not try more land grabs/wars in the future? If Putin "gets away" with this land grab, do you think it will lead to more war in the future? Or do you think he'll be content with what he's gotten?

 

I wonder if the alternative is more war now because it will prevent more war in the long run.

[cubsfan]

2 minutes ago, Malmqky said:

 

I wonder if the alternative is more war now because it will prevent more war in the long run.

 

That is indeed the million dollar question. Thanks for your honesty.

 

We all see it differently.

 

My opinion: Trust but verify.

[Spooky]

What an embarrassment. Who else can take up the mantle as leader of the free world?

Edited 5 hours ago by Spooky

[cubsfan]

1 minute ago, Spooky said:

What an embarrassment. Who else can take up the mantle as leader of the free world?

 

It's time for Europe to step up and do it. The world is waiting.

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

The USA is turning into an imperialist power. @kab60 Mark my words, but Trump is serious about Greenland too. He want wants to be the president who makes America larger on terms of land mass.

 

Imperialist powers think in terms of land mass first and # of people second . And imperialist likes to deal with other imperialist who think the same way. Thats now an imperialist trifecta of China, Russia, USA and soon India I think.

 

Those not on above list (Europe, Canada etc ) need to do something or they become colonies to be pushed around.

 

What a time to be alive.

 

Ohh, no! @Spekulatius,

 

I would certainly prefer we 'take' the Greenland matter at a later moment. I really don't know if I about that should laugh or cry.

[tnathan]

10 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

That is indeed the million dollar question. Thanks for your honesty.

 

We all see it differently.

 

My opinion: Trust but verify.

I'm with Malm on this ... Trusting / siding with Putin is like if 2 kids are on the playground, 1 being much bigger than the other and the bigger 1 is bullying the small 1 to give him his lunch money and the teacher says to the small kid -- "just give him the money so you'll stop fighting" lmao. Don't you see how dumb / cruel that is?

[Ulti]

https://nypost.com/2025/02/27/opinion/free-the-ukrainian-children-stolen-by-russia/
 

opinion piece in that leftist progressive Murdoch publication 

[Sweet]

33 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Watching this truly made me want to cry.
 

How can you have nothing but sympathy for Zelensky? He and his country have been through nothing but hell over the last three years—rape, torture, death, destruction—all at the hands of Vladimir Putin, with whom we're now friends with? Trump is, by far, the most arrogant person I've ever seen. He hasn't witnessed even a fraction of what Zelensky has experienced in a day, yet he still has the audacity to treat him like some random fool.

Shameful.

‘Propaganda’ was the shameful reply.  Can’t believe Vance said that.

 

When asked if he had been to Ukraine he fumbled.

 

Thing is I like Vance, but not his views here.

[Sweet]

33 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

Most of europe sees all of this as a temporary phase though, just wait out trump, 4 years at most.

Don’t be so sure.  You can’t rely on a partner once every four years.

[cubsfan]

4 minutes ago, tnathan said:

I'm with Malm on this ... Trusting / siding with Putin is like if 2 kids are on the playground, 1 being much bigger than the other and the bigger 1 is bullying the small 1 to give him his lunch money and the teacher says to the small kid -- "just give him the money so you'll stop fighting" lmao. Don't you see how dumb / cruel that is?

 

Then war it is. Europe should just tell Trump to go fuck himself.

[Spooky]

3 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Then war it is. Europe should just tell Trump to go fuck himself.

 

I mean there is another option where the US provides a real security guarantee and deterrence for a lasting peace rather than just giving Putin whatever he wants.

[changegonnacome]

1 minute ago, cubsfan said:

It's time for Europe to step up and do it. The world is waiting.

 

Alliances are funny things.......they work both ways - might be time for say ASML to start shipping the leading edge EUV machines to China again???.....I mean.....Europe went along with American leadership on containing China and hobbled ASML with export controls as per the Trump administrations wishes in 2019.....but I mean in an age of America being an unreliable partner........what exactly is Europe doing trying to contain China on the US's behalf anyway?.....Europe isn't a global hegemon worried about the rise of a rival global hegemon...its the US's existentual mid-life crisis this China-phobia.

 

As we've discussed many time before @cubsfan what lots of the current administration supporters miss the whole time with this little 'wins' is the BIG BIG picture........the old world order (1994 - 2024) was a pretty shitty system, except for all the other systems there could be......what folks forget and its a very traditionally conservative outlook......as shitty as it was.......things can ALWAYS be a whole lot worse......as Trump rips away at the load bearing walls of the global system I dont see a single sign that he has something in mind for what will replace......the international system/order has bias towards anarchy, the post WWII system of alliances was an imperfect balance of power structure but it served us well.....its getting slowly dismantled with nothing coming up behind it.....history suggests that folks only come to appreciate global institutions & alliances again ( however imperfect) after finding out the anarchy that exists without them....we are on the early stages of the path towards learning that brutal lesson again......I hope I have no need to come back to this post again in a number of years to say I told you so.

 

 

[Milu]

37 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

I think it's a good thing Trump is forcing Europe to up its defense spending, we have piggy backed on the safety of the US military for too long.

We don't need the US to beat Russia, in fact, without the US putting restrictions on how the war is fought (like not attacking russian oil refineries), we can cripple Putin much faster.

 

That said, his behavior towards Zelensky is disgraceful... I'm all for the tough negotiations but this was just childisch and disrespectul from the Americans. JD Vance was making arguments like a child... Most of europe sees all of this as a temporary phase though, just wait out trump, 4 years at most.

 

I wouldn’t be so sure, Europe waited out trump for 4 years until 2020 and here they are waiting until 2028. And don’t be so sure the MAGA movement ends when trump leaves office. If the policies end up working Vance would be more than able to continue them for another 4-8 years. Either way Europe needs to toughen up. We are a block with an economy about 10 times the size of Russia and 4 times the population yet we are the ones who look intimidated.