Political Posts

[73 Reds]

10 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

I'm not sure this is fully accurate to the times.  Think about this...young people are marrying later, having children later, and living longer.  So their departure from the nest is later than past decades.  

 

While most things are relative...housing is noticeably more difficult to attain in many major populated cities compared to historical affordability.  It's not that people don't have enough housing or options...but the comparison always veers to detached single family housing over the decades specifically.  And you just aren't going to be able to afford that type of housing in most major cities with the density we have these days in terms of population growth...even with dual income families.  Realistically in those cities today, a town house or large 3 bedroom condo would be akin to a detached single family residence in those cities 20-30-50 years ago.  I grew up in a 2,300 square foot house in an expensive area of Vancouver, with 4 bedrooms and only one washroom.  Six of us lived in that house!  Today, my brother lives in a 3,800 square foot house in a less expensive part of Vancouver, with 6 bedrooms and 4 washrooms for 4 people!

 

Most areas of North America are also quite diverse in population and culture.  Other ethnic groups historically, like older Italian, Greek, Chinese families that came over a century ago, lived with extended family/friends before venturing out on their own.  A similar thing is happening in the last decade or so, with families living together longer to build savings as they prepare to move out...now they are from parts of South America, Asia, Africa and are doing the same.

 

Lastly, people are living longer...they are staying in their homes longer...so they need care, support, companionship, financial support/rent, etc that allows them to do so.  They are helping their children and their children are helping them.

 

So, it's not as simple as statistics make it out to be...far more complex!  Cheers!

Dependency takes on many shapes and forms.  Cultural dependency is a very good thing with family members taking care of one another for life.  That is very different than nonproductive kids who are products of handouts, participation trophies and laziness.  If all you know is entitlement you are basically worthless and a drag on society.    

[SharperDingaan]

14 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Makes me wish I had your options talent.

 

Our preference is the warrants, while sailing on the tides …. 

• Options = Row Boats.  Cheap, extreme leverage to whatever your position is, but time limited and fragile. Somali pirate, all or none approach, modest outlay, but any kind of heavy sea or unexpected delay, and the boat tips; know how to swim.
• Warrants/Leaps = Inflatable Rescue Boats. Less leverage to the position, but a lot more time, and way more antifragile if held to maturity.  All or none approach, more substantial outlay, but it’s still an air-filled covered rubber boat on a heavy sea. Sea-sick, but you’re probably coming home; know how to swim.
• Distressed Debt, Low Quality Preferred = Tramp Steamers. Less leverage to the position, but it either sinks (bankruptcy) or turns into a butterfly via maturity at par, or debt-to-equity conversion.  All or none approach, significant outlay, but this time a real boat that requires specialised expertise.  Sea-sick, but you’re probably coming home, and not getting wet.
• High-quality equity in a niche sector (FFH) = Ocean Liner. Vanderbilt/Morgan approach, no leverage to the position, unlikely to sink (ex Titanic), choice of travel class with Rubber Duckie (Cunard). Stay rich, material outlay, coming home … dry, and not even seasick.

Always start at the tax-free account (TFSA), keep over funding through the wipe-outs and refinancings. Those material and early initial monthly penalties, paying themselves back over time at an accelerated rate (as stash and experience/expertise grows), from capital gains taxes permanently avoided. 

 

Same pirates as the boats get bigger …. they just dress better 

 

SD
 

Edited May 3 by SharperDingaan

[Libs]

12 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I have news for you, but the “system” never works  in your favor. The system works for the people who have already power or money. You can’t rely on “the system” and that always has been true.

 

You need to create your own luck and the way to do that is to find something you like and are good at or an opportunity that opens up and make it work. If it doesn’t work out, you try again..

 

Through work and some luck, you will eventually succeed and get somewhere. This has always been true and I think now are more ways to create your own luck than in the past. You can forget about the system providing for you. It may work for some (cozy government job or parent are rich) but most people need to work and hustle to get there.

 

The 'system' is indifferent. I'm going with Don Draper on this one.

 

 

 

 

 

[LC]

I guess those post-WW2 boomer generations were just smarter than everyone else. I wonder what category you put yourself in...

 

 

[73 Reds]

2 minutes ago, LC said:

I guess those post-WW2 boomer generations were just smarter than everyone else. I wonder what category you put yourself in...

 

 

Figures you think in categories.

[LC]

45 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Figures you think in categories.

 

...you're the one who you brought up "young people today" and "my generation"...

 

But it's all good, I'm off to the bar soon to watch the Habs...these days the walk is only uphill one way! 

[Blake Hampton]

And so Buffett continues to warn about runaway inflation.

 

The United States is running $2 trillion fiscal deficits, deficits that are continuing to grow exponentially. And spending primarily goes to the old, while taxes are largely paid by the working class and the young.

If we do end up experiencing significant amounts of inflation, the younger generations will get crushed. Prices for everything will go up, including housing, and the job market is apt to cause a lot of pain.

 

And there always been a lot of confusion surrounding the economics of inflation: It's a cost. It is, as Milton Friedman famously said, "Taxation without legislation." You're paying for the overconsumption of your country through the deterioration of your currency. Like many things, panic can cause it to spiral out of control. There are few ways to escape its grasp.

 

The only thing certain is that mass ignorance will continue, it is after all how we got here.

[cubsfan]

3 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

And so Buffett continues to warn about runaway inflation.

 

The United States is running $2 trillion fiscal deficits, deficits that are continuing to grow exponentially. And spending primarily goes to the old, while taxes are largely paid by the working class and the young.

If we do end up experiencing significant amounts of inflation, the younger generations will get crushed. Prices for everything will go up, including housing, and the job market is apt to cause a lot of pain.

 

And there always been a lot of confusion surrounding the economics of inflation: It's a cost. It is, as Milton Friedman famously said, "Taxation without legislation." You're paying for the overconsumption of your country through the deterioration of your currency. Like many things, panic can cause it to spiral out of control. There are few ways to escape its grasp.

 

The only thing certain is that mass ignorance will continue, it is after all how we got here.

 

Runaway inflation is terribly destructive. Someone should have told Biden that when he dumped another $1T into an economy that was already recovery.  

There is nothing like pouring gasoline on the fire.

[Blake Hampton]

Cubs, I find it amazing that you're on a Buffett board:
 

 

Here's Charlie:
 

 

[cubsfan]

1 minute ago, Blake Hampton said:

Cubs, I find it amazing that you're on a Buffett board:
 

 

Here's Charlie:
 

 

 

I guess you can't speak for yourself Blake.

 

Post me some articles from the Economist and NYT while you are at it.  

[Blake Hampton]

Biden wasn't great. But if you think Trump 2.0 is nothing but a disaster, you're simply living in dreamland. One of the biggest reasons Buffett will no longer endorse anybody is because he's afraid of the fallout from a deranged president. The dude is attacking business leaders, media, our allies, left to right, and yet so many still find a way to stand by his lunacy.

 

And his supporters get angry because others call them dumb and say they're in a cult. That's certainly what it looks like on the outside.

 

But what it truly looks like to me is a bunch of scared and desperate people supporting a man who offers them simple solutions and a form of hope. The world today is a scary place, there's a lot of problems that seem insurmountable and threaten to destroy us. The current state of media and technology make sure you get to know about 24/7, every single day.

Trumpism is kind of like a religion. It exists outside of logic and data.

 

While I'm personally not religious, I don't think those that are religious are stupid. It's something more than that. Same thing with Trump.

 

This is a dynamic that will become more and more pronounced alongside the deterioration of our economy. It'll likely get worse.  History tells the tale.

 

Edited May 3 by Blake Hampton

[Blake Hampton]

16 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I have news for you, but the “system” never works  in your favor. The system works for the people who have already power or money. You can’t rely on “the system” and that always has been true.

 

You need to create your own luck and the way to do that is to find something you like and are good at or an opportunity that opens up and make it work. If it doesn’t work out, you try again..

 

Through work and some luck, you will eventually succeed and get somewhere. This has always been true and I think now are more ways to create your own luck than in the past. You can forget about the system providing for you. It may work for some (cozy government job or parent are rich) but most people need to work and hustle to get there.

 

You're right. The system indeed is uncaring. It's kind of like what Peter Lynch said about the stock market: Good people can lose big while bad people make a fortune. It ultimately comes down to what you own.

The point I'm trying to make is that a system that preys on it's younger generations is not sustainable. That is the sort of system that we now live in. Many here would like to say that it's the inverse. They're wrong.

[Blake Hampton]

I could sit here all day using data to support my argument, but it never seems to make a difference anyway.

[cubsfan]

13 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Biden wasn't great. But if you think Trump 2.0 is nothing but a disaster, you're simply living in dreamland. One of the biggest reasons Buffett will no longer endorse anybody is because he's afraid of the fallout from a deranged president. The dude is attacking business leaders, media, our allies, left to right, and yet so many still find a way to stand by his lunacy.

 

And his supporters get angry because others call them dumb and say they're in a cult. That's certainly what it looks like on the outside.

 

But what it truly looks like to me is a bunch of scared and desperate people supporting a man who offers them simple solutions and a form of hope. The world today is a scary place, there's a lot of problems that seem insurmountable and threaten to destroy us. The current state of media and technology make sure you get to know about 24/7, every single day.

Trumpism is kind of like a religion. It exists outside of logic and data.

 

While I'm personally not religious, I don't think those that are religious are stupid. It's something more than that. Same thing with Trump.

 

This is a dynamic that will become more and more pronounced alongside the deterioration of our economy. It'll likely get worse.  History tells the tale.

 

 

You can say anything you like Blake.

 

More than anything, MAGA supporters are delighted with just about everything so far.  Economy is looking up. Stock market is on fire. DEI is dead. Gender/trans nonsense is dead. Child sex trafficking is dead. Border is slammed shut. Higher education is on notice to deliver value. Crime is at historic lows. Christianity is growing again. Wonderful tax cuts, business incentives, deregulation in place. Free speech restored (thank you Elon!).

 

Since the Trump election, I'm personally stunned at the progress - given the deep, deep hole Biden led the country into - ESPECIALLY his runaway inflation.

 

But you can cry all you want about $4 gas and mean tweets if it makes you feel better.

 

Among the MAGA crowd - it's smiles all around.

It's my kind of cult.

 

But have at it Blake - and try not to let Trump ruin your year.

[Gregmal]

Oh great, this is where we get to hear about things like how the deficit matters, even though we voted for Kamala anyway.
 

Clearly if you thought fiscal responsibility was important, a vote for Kamala or Biden would’ve been a non starter. If you didn’t think that stuff was important when you voted, you don’t get to whine about it now. 

[dwy000]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Oh great, this is where we get to hear about things like how the deficit matters, even though we voted for Kamala anyway.
 

Clearly if you thought fiscal responsibility was important, a vote for Kamala or Biden would’ve been a non starter. If you didn’t think that stuff was important when you voted, you don’t get to whine about it now. 

Isn't it worse if you voted for Trump because you did think it important and he promised to deal with it...and then made it hugely worse instead. 

[SharperDingaan]

We all live within a 'system', that doesn't work well unless we all stay within our self-sustaining 'swim lanes'. Same schools, universities, career paths, yada, yada .... but still 'in-breeding'. The result is just better spoken, and better dressed hill billies , at the various levels. Do nothing, enjoy a nice life ......

 

Takes courage to live as a 'outlier', 'cause you truly are the wolf amongst sheep, and there is tremendous pressure to 'conform'. Doing your own thing, while not being predatory ... truly sucks .

 

Significant inflation is coming, it will severely hurt those around you, and it will cost many the life they are accustomed to.  However it is straightforward to make it generate enormous gains .... and even easier with today's tech; those with 'inflation' experience in other countries, even more advantaged . 

 

The American dream is founded on upward mobility; work hard, and with a little luck, you too will become successful .... however society defines it at the time. So expect extreme denial, when downward mobility makes its presence felt, as simply working hard is not enough..

 

CPI inflation, and main street reality, are of course very different. Today too high a price is the problem; the rate of change in that too high a price (CPI inflation), is meaningless. When you can't afford gas at $4/gallon, you really don't care how quickly it gets to $5/gallon .... not what economics preaches.

 

SD   

Edited May 3 by SharperDingaan

[Parsad]

Gary expecting a market correction and recession possibly by year-end.  Gary's not always right, but he is a very nice guy.  So his comments are always in earnest!  Take what you will from the data.  Cheers!

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/top-economist-gary-shilling-says-092001808.html

[Blake Hampton]

7 hours ago, Parsad said:

Gary expecting a market correction and recession possibly by year-end.

 

The last two recessions nearly resulted in financial collapse.

 

[Blake Hampton]

I personally think we're moving beyond recessions and simple market corrections.

[Blake Hampton]

But maybe our government can continue saving the system forever:

[Gregmal]

27 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

 

The last two recessions nearly resulted in financial collapse.

 

It's pretty stunning one can look at that chart and arrive at any conclusion other than owning stocks is the way to go. Good lord. 

[73 Reds]

7 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

It's pretty stunning one can look at that chart and arrive at any conclusion other than owning stocks is the way to go. Good lord. 

Indeed, with a long enough time horizon nothing beats owning great businesses.  The chart also demonstrates that with a long enough time horizon trying to time the markets is hardly worthwhile for mere mortals.  

[Paarslaars]

6 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

The chart also demonstrates that with a long enough time horizon trying to time the markets is hardly worthwhile for mere mortals.  

 

When you buy index funds yes. Individual stock charts look a bit different.

[73 Reds]

2 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

 

When you buy index funds yes. Individual stock charts look a bit different.

Yeah, the chart reflects 500 businesses of the time, which also change over time.  Which is why set-it-and-forget-it makes sense for most young people.